Max Hailperin
@maxhailperin.bsky.social
In 2021, the average Minneapolis voter ranked 2.17 distinct candidates for mayor, whereas in 2025 the average was 2.31. I'm not clear how one would assess the significance of this difference, but it's in the direction I imagine most pundits would have predicted.
November 10, 2025 at 11:41 PM
In 2021, the average Minneapolis voter ranked 2.17 distinct candidates for mayor, whereas in 2025 the average was 2.31. I'm not clear how one would assess the significance of this difference, but it's in the direction I imagine most pundits would have predicted.
Let's look at the cumulative vote margin in the final round of the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral race as one moves from the ward with largest absolute margin to the smallest. Ward 13's margin is a bit more than the citywide total. From there, it bobs around but largely cancels out.
November 10, 2025 at 11:15 PM
Let's look at the cumulative vote margin in the final round of the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral race as one moves from the ward with largest absolute margin to the smallest. Ward 13's margin is a bit more than the citywide total. From there, it bobs around but largely cancels out.
Here's another view of the final-round 2025 Minneapolis mayor vote by ward. I've sorted from the ward with the largest absolute margin to the smallest. The ones in parentheses favored Fateh, those without parentheses favored Frey.
November 10, 2025 at 8:24 PM
Here's another view of the final-round 2025 Minneapolis mayor vote by ward. I've sorted from the ward with the largest absolute margin to the smallest. The ones in parentheses favored Fateh, those without parentheses favored Frey.
Based on the 2025 Minneapolis Mayor cast vote records:
November 10, 2025 at 7:35 PM
Based on the 2025 Minneapolis Mayor cast vote records:
For @dbrauer.net and anyone else: here are the final-round results by precinct for Minneapolis Mayor, 2025. docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
2025 Minneapolis Mayor FInal Round
docs.google.com
November 10, 2025 at 7:29 PM
For @dbrauer.net and anyone else: here are the final-round results by precinct for Minneapolis Mayor, 2025. docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
I've gotten a couple questions whether there could be a recount in Minneapolis. Yes, if a losing candidate paid for it. None of the 22 races is anywhere near close enough for a publicly funded recount. The period to file for a recount lasts a week from tomorrow's canvass.
November 9, 2025 at 10:58 PM
I've gotten a couple questions whether there could be a recount in Minneapolis. Yes, if a losing candidate paid for it. None of the 22 races is anywhere near close enough for a publicly funded recount. The period to file for a recount lasts a week from tomorrow's canvass.
The below table is for the 2021 Minneapolis mayoral race. The first row corresponds to the final round of the ranked-choice voting tabulation. The other rows show what the ballots reveal about voters' preferences between other pairs of candidates. Is this reasonably clear?
November 9, 2025 at 6:28 PM
The below table is for the 2021 Minneapolis mayoral race. The first row corresponds to the final round of the ranked-choice voting tabulation. The other rows show what the ballots reveal about voters' preferences between other pairs of candidates. Is this reasonably clear?
We're going to have more data relevant to this analysis once the cast vote records are released, which I'm guessing will be tomorrow afternoon. For example, we'll be able to see how many voters preferred Davis to Frey, which can show up many ways, e.g., (Fateh,Davis,Hampton) or (Hampton,Davis,Frey).
I am still so mad about this that I broke out the colored pencils, so I could do a little RCV explainer. Something is seriously wrong with me that this is what I am doing with my Saturday night, but here goes (a thread):
We wouldn’t need center left orgs if we had progressive electeds and orgs that took seriously the shape of our electorate, how RCV actually works, & were serious about beating Jacob. Either they don’t understand how the shape of our electorate plays out in RCV or they don’t care about beating him.
November 9, 2025 at 4:43 PM
We're going to have more data relevant to this analysis once the cast vote records are released, which I'm guessing will be tomorrow afternoon. For example, we'll be able to see how many voters preferred Davis to Frey, which can show up many ways, e.g., (Fateh,Davis,Hampton) or (Hampton,Davis,Frey).
Reposted by Max Hailperin
BREAKING: Mark Wolf, appointed to the federal bench by Ronald Reagan, writes that he is resigning as a judge to have the freedom to speak out against the president's assault on the rule of law.
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1...
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1...
November 9, 2025 at 2:27 PM
BREAKING: Mark Wolf, appointed to the federal bench by Ronald Reagan, writes that he is resigning as a judge to have the freedom to speak out against the president's assault on the rule of law.
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1...
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1...
Anyone who wants to join me in a line-by-line parsing out of how that 787-page canvass report corresponds to the two web sites, I'm happy to do that. We could start at some arranged time and keep going until everyone is bored.
Two candidates who each received about a half percent of the vote for mayor (Brenda Short & Laverne Turner) are casting doubt on results by falsely claiming the city clerk's office is under the direction of Mayor Frey. Press conference Monday about "discrepancies."
November 9, 2025 at 3:01 PM
Anyone who wants to join me in a line-by-line parsing out of how that 787-page canvass report corresponds to the two web sites, I'm happy to do that. We could start at some arranged time and keep going until everyone is bored.
Walking every block of every street of every neighborhood in Minneapolis took me back to the North Loop, where the river-adjacent area largely corresponds with the historic Warehouse District.
allofminneapolis.com/north-loop-d...
allofminneapolis.com/north-loop-d...
North Loop, Day 2
The river-adjacent portion of Minneapolis’s North Loop neighborhood, which was the focus of this walk, largely corresponds to the…
allofminneapolis.com
November 9, 2025 at 1:48 AM
Walking every block of every street of every neighborhood in Minneapolis took me back to the North Loop, where the river-adjacent area largely corresponds with the historic Warehouse District.
allofminneapolis.com/north-loop-d...
allofminneapolis.com/north-loop-d...
I tend to think RCV gets analyzed backward. It isn't that Jazz's supporters broke for Frey, it's that he persuaded a bunch of Frey supporters to prefer him.
a couple thoughts on jazz hampton
1. it's not his fault his first choice voters mostly broke for frey. his supporters who wanted davis or fateh likely just voted for them ahead of jazz hampton
2. he'll always have my respect for the answer he gave about primarying ilhan
1. it's not his fault his first choice voters mostly broke for frey. his supporters who wanted davis or fateh likely just voted for them ahead of jazz hampton
2. he'll always have my respect for the answer he gave about primarying ilhan
November 8, 2025 at 6:52 PM
I tend to think RCV gets analyzed backward. It isn't that Jazz's supporters broke for Frey, it's that he persuaded a bunch of Frey supporters to prefer him.
Incidentally, I have scolded others repeatedly on the importance of using copy and paste rather than re-keyboarding, so as to minimize errors. And now I've provided an example to illustrate my own point.
Corrections: 5673 should have been 6,573, thus 15,391 should have been 16,291, and 9,630/16,291 = 59.11%, still seemingly enough. My transposed digits changed the numbers but not the concept.
Park District 1 is simpler. On election night, it was apparent that 9,630 voters had marked Dan Engelhart in column 1. Together with 5673 who had marked Dan Miller and 88 who had marked write-in, there were 15,391 who had voted in that first-choice column. 9,630/15,391 = 62.57%, seemingly enough.
November 8, 2025 at 5:19 PM
Incidentally, I have scolded others repeatedly on the importance of using copy and paste rather than re-keyboarding, so as to minimize errors. And now I've provided an example to illustrate my own point.
Corrections: 5673 should have been 6,573, thus 15,391 should have been 16,291, and 9,630/16,291 = 59.11%, still seemingly enough. My transposed digits changed the numbers but not the concept.
Park District 1 is simpler. On election night, it was apparent that 9,630 voters had marked Dan Engelhart in column 1. Together with 5673 who had marked Dan Miller and 88 who had marked write-in, there were 15,391 who had voted in that first-choice column. 9,630/15,391 = 62.57%, seemingly enough.
November 8, 2025 at 5:04 PM
Corrections: 5673 should have been 6,573, thus 15,391 should have been 16,291, and 9,630/16,291 = 59.11%, still seemingly enough. My transposed digits changed the numbers but not the concept.
Having looked through all 787 pages of the Minneapolis canvassing report, I think the most puzzling question for many readers would be why Board of Estimate and Taxation and Park District 1 required ranked choice tabulation rather than being election-night determinations. Anyone want explanation?
November 8, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Having looked through all 787 pages of the Minneapolis canvassing report, I think the most puzzling question for many readers would be why Board of Estimate and Taxation and Park District 1 required ranked choice tabulation rather than being election-night determinations. Anyone want explanation?
Minneapolitans cast 147,702 ballots w/ 5 races w/ 3 rankings, so 2,215,530 opportunities to overvote. They overvoted 933 times. Nearly half came from these top 3:
195 for 1st Choice Park and Recreation Commissioner At Large
128 for 1st Choice Board of Estimate and Taxation
105 for 1st Choice Mayor
195 for 1st Choice Park and Recreation Commissioner At Large
128 for 1st Choice Board of Estimate and Taxation
105 for 1st Choice Mayor
November 8, 2025 at 1:40 AM
Minneapolitans cast 147,702 ballots w/ 5 races w/ 3 rankings, so 2,215,530 opportunities to overvote. They overvoted 933 times. Nearly half came from these top 3:
195 for 1st Choice Park and Recreation Commissioner At Large
128 for 1st Choice Board of Estimate and Taxation
105 for 1st Choice Mayor
195 for 1st Choice Park and Recreation Commissioner At Large
128 for 1st Choice Board of Estimate and Taxation
105 for 1st Choice Mayor
The Minneapolis canvassing board report is 787 pages long, which is more than I expect you to read, but I do want to highlight a couple items that are illustrative, using my own precinct, W2-P5, as an example. We can see that the voters signed in match exactly the ballots cast.
November 7, 2025 at 10:03 PM
The Minneapolis canvassing board report is 787 pages long, which is more than I expect you to read, but I do want to highlight a couple items that are illustrative, using my own precinct, W2-P5, as an example. We can see that the voters signed in match exactly the ballots cast.
Wondering when Minneapolis election results become official? lims.minneapolismn.gov/board/agenda...
November 7, 2025 at 8:38 PM
Wondering when Minneapolis election results become official? lims.minneapolismn.gov/board/agenda...
You can read Olson's Cheers & Jeers in full; I've provided a gift link. But I particularly want to highlight what she wrote about Tom Emmer. www.startribune.com/twin-cities-...
November 7, 2025 at 12:37 PM
You can read Olson's Cheers & Jeers in full; I've provided a gift link. But I particularly want to highlight what she wrote about Tom Emmer. www.startribune.com/twin-cities-...
Another view of Minneapolis voting. With election-day polling-place voting included, it's no longer feasible to show the individual weeks of early voting; many would be invisibly small. Instead, I've aggregated early voting into the four weeks before direct balloting started and the rest.
November 7, 2025 at 12:12 PM
Another view of Minneapolis voting. With election-day polling-place voting included, it's no longer feasible to show the individual weeks of early voting; many would be invisibly small. Instead, I've aggregated early voting into the four weeks before direct balloting started and the rest.
Reposted by Max Hailperin
"Beyond being the 24th consecutive grant of emergency relief to the Trump administration, the cryptic ruling in Orr is a reminder of just how bankrupt the Court’s proffered justifications are in these cases—both legally and in other ways, too."
Me on today's ugly #SCOTUS ruling in Trump v. Orr:
Me on today's ugly #SCOTUS ruling in Trump v. Orr:
189. The Breezy Inequity of Trump v. Orr
The Supreme Court's latest grant of emergency relief to the Trump administration illustrates in technicolor the direct (and ugly) consequences of the two different ways it keeps messing up "equity."
www.stevevladeck.com
November 7, 2025 at 2:28 AM
"Beyond being the 24th consecutive grant of emergency relief to the Trump administration, the cryptic ruling in Orr is a reminder of just how bankrupt the Court’s proffered justifications are in these cases—both legally and in other ways, too."
Me on today's ugly #SCOTUS ruling in Trump v. Orr:
Me on today's ugly #SCOTUS ruling in Trump v. Orr:
Reposted by Max Hailperin
They caught it, those meddling kids! The Dem master election fraud plan all along was to hold all the power of the Exec Branch in 2024, but let the Rs win the WH and both houses of Congress, so they could grab that elusive prize of NYC Mayor and NJ Gov in 2025!
November 6, 2025 at 2:59 PM
They caught it, those meddling kids! The Dem master election fraud plan all along was to hold all the power of the Exec Branch in 2024, but let the Rs win the WH and both houses of Congress, so they could grab that elusive prize of NYC Mayor and NJ Gov in 2025!
With unofficial precinct statistics posted, we can finish off the chart of how Minneapolis wards' early voting stacked up. Not only did some wards use early voting more than others, the pattern across the weeks varies substantially from ward to ward.
November 7, 2025 at 1:35 AM
With unofficial precinct statistics posted, we can finish off the chart of how Minneapolis wards' early voting stacked up. Not only did some wards use early voting more than others, the pattern across the weeks varies substantially from ward to ward.
Throughout the early voting period, we watched Ward 6's early lead get gradually eroded. Through Monday, when the city last reported, it was still just a bit ahead of Ward 3. But the ballots that came in on Tuesday are now known to have made the difference.
Ward 3: 3,557
Ward 6: 3,543
(unofficial)
Ward 3: 3,557
Ward 6: 3,543
(unofficial)
🏆 Congratulations Ward 12, you produced highest number of voters this year.
Total votes cast by Minneapolis ward (roughly equal populations - 33k):
W1 13,038
W2 6,955
W3 13,737
W4 6,935
W5 5,037
W6 7,797
W7 13,285
W8 12,276
W9 8,417
W10 11,367
W11 14,202
W12 17,168
W13 16,951
Total votes cast by Minneapolis ward (roughly equal populations - 33k):
W1 13,038
W2 6,955
W3 13,737
W4 6,935
W5 5,037
W6 7,797
W7 13,285
W8 12,276
W9 8,417
W10 11,367
W11 14,202
W12 17,168
W13 16,951
November 7, 2025 at 12:38 AM
Throughout the early voting period, we watched Ward 6's early lead get gradually eroded. Through Monday, when the city last reported, it was still just a bit ahead of Ward 3. But the ballots that came in on Tuesday are now known to have made the difference.
Ward 3: 3,557
Ward 6: 3,543
(unofficial)
Ward 3: 3,557
Ward 6: 3,543
(unofficial)
Moving from Ward 13 to Ward 2 has been quite a change in more ways than one. My vote suddenly carries 2.4 times as much weight in choosing my council member.
🏆 Congratulations Ward 12, you produced highest number of voters this year.
Total votes cast by Minneapolis ward (roughly equal populations - 33k):
W1 13,038
W2 6,955
W3 13,737
W4 6,935
W5 5,037
W6 7,797
W7 13,285
W8 12,276
W9 8,417
W10 11,367
W11 14,202
W12 17,168
W13 16,951
Total votes cast by Minneapolis ward (roughly equal populations - 33k):
W1 13,038
W2 6,955
W3 13,737
W4 6,935
W5 5,037
W6 7,797
W7 13,285
W8 12,276
W9 8,417
W10 11,367
W11 14,202
W12 17,168
W13 16,951
November 7, 2025 at 12:12 AM
Moving from Ward 13 to Ward 2 has been quite a change in more ways than one. My vote suddenly carries 2.4 times as much weight in choosing my council member.