Max Hailperin
@maxhailperin.bsky.social
Let's look at the cumulative vote margin in the final round of the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral race as one moves from the ward with largest absolute margin to the smallest. Ward 13's margin is a bit more than the citywide total. From there, it bobs around but largely cancels out.
November 10, 2025 at 11:15 PM
Let's look at the cumulative vote margin in the final round of the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral race as one moves from the ward with largest absolute margin to the smallest. Ward 13's margin is a bit more than the citywide total. From there, it bobs around but largely cancels out.
Here's another view of the final-round 2025 Minneapolis mayor vote by ward. I've sorted from the ward with the largest absolute margin to the smallest. The ones in parentheses favored Fateh, those without parentheses favored Frey.
November 10, 2025 at 8:24 PM
Here's another view of the final-round 2025 Minneapolis mayor vote by ward. I've sorted from the ward with the largest absolute margin to the smallest. The ones in parentheses favored Fateh, those without parentheses favored Frey.
Based on the 2025 Minneapolis Mayor cast vote records:
November 10, 2025 at 7:35 PM
Based on the 2025 Minneapolis Mayor cast vote records:
Something like this? I'm skeptical whether most people would find it helpful.
November 9, 2025 at 11:31 PM
Something like this? I'm skeptical whether most people would find it helpful.
I agree with you about the > and the rank numbers. What do you think of the format below?
As to the graph format, would you perhaps want to dummy up an example? But yeah, it surely won't be as easy to make, no matter what exactly you have in mind.
Thanks.
As to the graph format, would you perhaps want to dummy up an example? But yeah, it surely won't be as easy to make, no matter what exactly you have in mind.
Thanks.
November 9, 2025 at 10:56 PM
I agree with you about the > and the rank numbers. What do you think of the format below?
As to the graph format, would you perhaps want to dummy up an example? But yeah, it surely won't be as easy to make, no matter what exactly you have in mind.
Thanks.
As to the graph format, would you perhaps want to dummy up an example? But yeah, it surely won't be as easy to make, no matter what exactly you have in mind.
Thanks.
The below table is for the 2021 Minneapolis mayoral race. The first row corresponds to the final round of the ranked-choice voting tabulation. The other rows show what the ballots reveal about voters' preferences between other pairs of candidates. Is this reasonably clear?
November 9, 2025 at 6:28 PM
The below table is for the 2021 Minneapolis mayoral race. The first row corresponds to the final round of the ranked-choice voting tabulation. The other rows show what the ballots reveal about voters' preferences between other pairs of candidates. Is this reasonably clear?
Having looked through all 787 pages of the Minneapolis canvassing report, I think the most puzzling question for many readers would be why Board of Estimate and Taxation and Park District 1 required ranked choice tabulation rather than being election-night determinations. Anyone want explanation?
November 8, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Having looked through all 787 pages of the Minneapolis canvassing report, I think the most puzzling question for many readers would be why Board of Estimate and Taxation and Park District 1 required ranked choice tabulation rather than being election-night determinations. Anyone want explanation?
The Minneapolis canvassing board report is 787 pages long, which is more than I expect you to read, but I do want to highlight a couple items that are illustrative, using my own precinct, W2-P5, as an example. We can see that the voters signed in match exactly the ballots cast.
November 7, 2025 at 10:03 PM
The Minneapolis canvassing board report is 787 pages long, which is more than I expect you to read, but I do want to highlight a couple items that are illustrative, using my own precinct, W2-P5, as an example. We can see that the voters signed in match exactly the ballots cast.
You can read Olson's Cheers & Jeers in full; I've provided a gift link. But I particularly want to highlight what she wrote about Tom Emmer. www.startribune.com/twin-cities-...
November 7, 2025 at 12:37 PM
You can read Olson's Cheers & Jeers in full; I've provided a gift link. But I particularly want to highlight what she wrote about Tom Emmer. www.startribune.com/twin-cities-...
Another view of Minneapolis voting. With election-day polling-place voting included, it's no longer feasible to show the individual weeks of early voting; many would be invisibly small. Instead, I've aggregated early voting into the four weeks before direct balloting started and the rest.
November 7, 2025 at 12:12 PM
Another view of Minneapolis voting. With election-day polling-place voting included, it's no longer feasible to show the individual weeks of early voting; many would be invisibly small. Instead, I've aggregated early voting into the four weeks before direct balloting started and the rest.
With unofficial precinct statistics posted, we can finish off the chart of how Minneapolis wards' early voting stacked up. Not only did some wards use early voting more than others, the pattern across the weeks varies substantially from ward to ward.
November 7, 2025 at 1:35 AM
With unofficial precinct statistics posted, we can finish off the chart of how Minneapolis wards' early voting stacked up. Not only did some wards use early voting more than others, the pattern across the weeks varies substantially from ward to ward.
I didn't list a number last night for just how high Minneapolis turnout was; even the unofficial results weren't all in. But now I can say, unofficially 147,702. Versus 145,337 in 2021. Wow. vote.minneapolismn.gov/results-data...
November 5, 2025 at 12:09 PM
I didn't list a number last night for just how high Minneapolis turnout was; even the unofficial results weren't all in. But now I can say, unofficially 147,702. Versus 145,337 in 2021. Wow. vote.minneapolismn.gov/results-data...
I get the newspaper print-edition deadline and hence why the StarTribune couldn't run the same story they have on the web about Kaohly Her's victory in St. Paul. But this framing in terms of Melvin Carter's hopes seems odd. Why not "Her strives to topple Carter; results still out"? Or neutral?
November 5, 2025 at 11:34 AM
I get the newspaper print-edition deadline and hence why the StarTribune couldn't run the same story they have on the web about Kaohly Her's victory in St. Paul. But this framing in terms of Melvin Carter's hopes seems odd. Why not "Her strives to topple Carter; results still out"? Or neutral?
My turnout estimate was wrong in a good way: Minneapolis voters exceeded my upper end. Indeed, they unofficially exceeded the 2021 record. And, though I democracied until my hand bled, I was home by 10:30 PM, which hasn't happened in the last 7 elections I've worked. High turnout, smooth operations.
November 5, 2025 at 4:43 AM
My turnout estimate was wrong in a good way: Minneapolis voters exceeded my upper end. Indeed, they unofficially exceeded the 2021 record. And, though I democracied until my hand bled, I was home by 10:30 PM, which hasn't happened in the last 7 elections I've worked. High turnout, smooth operations.
But Max, you may ask, can that rate of weekend voting really be sustained for a second day? No, it was not sustained. It was exceeded. Today there were 1,259 voters, again in 6 hours. Said another way, only 17 seconds per voter instead of 19.
November 3, 2025 at 12:30 AM
But Max, you may ask, can that rate of weekend voting really be sustained for a second day? No, it was not sustained. It was exceeded. Today there were 1,259 voters, again in 6 hours. Said another way, only 17 seconds per voter instead of 19.
One of today's voters (who happens to be a candidate) posted that it was "busy" at the Minneapolis Early Vote Center (EVC). How busy? Busy to the tune of 1,127 voters in 6 hours. That's one voter every 19 seconds. Those EVC staffers are rock stars.
November 1, 2025 at 11:26 PM
One of today's voters (who happens to be a candidate) posted that it was "busy" at the Minneapolis Early Vote Center (EVC). How busy? Busy to the tune of 1,127 voters in 6 hours. That's one voter every 19 seconds. Those EVC staffers are rock stars.
Nine years ago today, this combination of headline and photo had me imagining a note: "Paul- Where do you get those slick ties from? Is that pink one Thai silk? Best, -Jim"
October 31, 2025 at 7:11 PM
Nine years ago today, this combination of headline and photo had me imagining a note: "Paul- Where do you get those slick ties from? Is that pink one Thai silk? Best, -Jim"
In week 6 of Minneapolis early voting, Ward 6 is continuing to vote heavily, having re-accelerated for a second week in a row after three weeks of deceleration. Cumulatively it still leads, but for votes cast in the week, it is in 4th place behind Wards 3, 12, and 7. (Ward 12 surged notably.)
October 31, 2025 at 11:10 AM
In week 6 of Minneapolis early voting, Ward 6 is continuing to vote heavily, having re-accelerated for a second week in a row after three weeks of deceleration. Cumulatively it still leads, but for votes cast in the week, it is in 4th place behind Wards 3, 12, and 7. (Ward 12 surged notably.)
I'm old enough to remember when the Pioneer Press was a Saint Paul newspaper.
October 30, 2025 at 8:45 PM
I'm old enough to remember when the Pioneer Press was a Saint Paul newspaper.
It's a great photo, like so many by @gspphoto.bsky.social. But 7 years after the last time anyone voted that particular "here," maybe it's ready for retirement? The cutoff point could be timed to the move to the new location: file photo from prior location ok, but not two locations ago.
October 30, 2025 at 11:01 AM
It's a great photo, like so many by @gspphoto.bsky.social. But 7 years after the last time anyone voted that particular "here," maybe it's ready for retirement? The cutoff point could be timed to the move to the new location: file photo from prior location ok, but not two locations ago.
The most recent published data on this year's early voting is through yesterday. (Today recently closed but isn't published yet.) Comparing it with the corresponding date in 2024, the proportion of the wards is very different. So I see no reason to expect the proportions to be the same in total.
October 29, 2025 at 11:47 PM
The most recent published data on this year's early voting is through yesterday. (Today recently closed but isn't published yet.) Comparing it with the corresponding date in 2024, the proportion of the wards is very different. So I see no reason to expect the proportions to be the same in total.
Over on the other site, I've had to not only look out for human misinformation but also what Grok is up to. This one is funny; not only is its summary of Minnesota's post-election review statute factually wrong, it manages it to cite an entirely bogus section number for that statute.
October 29, 2025 at 6:56 PM
Over on the other site, I've had to not only look out for human misinformation but also what Grok is up to. This one is funny; not only is its summary of Minnesota's post-election review statute factually wrong, it manages it to cite an entirely bogus section number for that statute.
"All present or accounted for." My mom, a veteran of the US Army, drummed into us that this was the proper response, *not* "all present and accounted for." Each member of the unit is *either* physically present *or* there's an account of why they are absent. Relevance? Read on.
October 29, 2025 at 12:24 PM
"All present or accounted for." My mom, a veteran of the US Army, drummed into us that this was the proper response, *not* "all present and accounted for." Each member of the unit is *either* physically present *or* there's an account of why they are absent. Relevance? Read on.
That's precisely why many cities have ordinances like this Minneapolis one (which, alas, I've seen violated plenty of times). library.municode.com/mn/minneapol...
October 26, 2025 at 12:03 AM
That's precisely why many cities have ordinances like this Minneapolis one (which, alas, I've seen violated plenty of times). library.municode.com/mn/minneapol...