Matt "Winter is here"
@mattrobb.bsky.social
Politics, Education, Strategy, LFC and FF
No conspiracists, anti-vax, QAnon etc please.
No conspiracists, anti-vax, QAnon etc please.
That's a lot of bleeding... (I'm doing it with you!)
January 7, 2026 at 9:53 PM
That's a lot of bleeding... (I'm doing it with you!)
Reposted by Matt "Winter is here"
There’s a video that shows that basically every word of this statement is a lie
January 7, 2026 at 6:20 PM
There’s a video that shows that basically every word of this statement is a lie
His electorate is old people.
January 7, 2026 at 4:46 PM
His electorate is old people.
Oh sh*t, sorry to hear that. All the best with healing and rehab
January 7, 2026 at 4:45 PM
Oh sh*t, sorry to hear that. All the best with healing and rehab
Reposted by Matt "Winter is here"
I am interested in how interested many mainstream commentators are in the rapid descent of X, *and* I think it's notable that there's not a load of engagement from the same people when other emerging tech risks are flagged. In fact, sometimes, the same people actively scorn those risks
January 7, 2026 at 4:41 PM
I am interested in how interested many mainstream commentators are in the rapid descent of X, *and* I think it's notable that there's not a load of engagement from the same people when other emerging tech risks are flagged. In fact, sometimes, the same people actively scorn those risks
Reposted by Matt "Winter is here"
Follow the people that help shape the work of Britain's leading cross-party think tank - with a mission to enable markets and government to work together to benefit society.
👉 Check out our starter pack of SMF researchers & associated Senior Fellows: go.bsky.app/Kpjs1G7
👉 Check out our starter pack of SMF researchers & associated Senior Fellows: go.bsky.app/Kpjs1G7
January 7, 2026 at 4:38 PM
Follow the people that help shape the work of Britain's leading cross-party think tank - with a mission to enable markets and government to work together to benefit society.
👉 Check out our starter pack of SMF researchers & associated Senior Fellows: go.bsky.app/Kpjs1G7
👉 Check out our starter pack of SMF researchers & associated Senior Fellows: go.bsky.app/Kpjs1G7
Reposted by Matt "Winter is here"
BBC Verify and BBC Persian have verified over 100 videos in more than 50 towns and cities during 10 days of nationwide protests in Iran, showing that the demonstrations have now spread to the majority of Iran's provinces.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Iran anti-government protests spread to majority of provinces, videos show
Videos show that unrest has spread to more than 50 towns and cities, including pro-government heartlands.
www.bbc.co.uk
January 6, 2026 at 6:34 PM
BBC Verify and BBC Persian have verified over 100 videos in more than 50 towns and cities during 10 days of nationwide protests in Iran, showing that the demonstrations have now spread to the majority of Iran's provinces.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Reposted by Matt "Winter is here"
COMMENTARY: It seems an increasing number of Americans, including elected leaders and journalists, are afraid to tell the truth about what happened on January 6. That's dangerous.
January 7, 2026 at 2:51 AM
COMMENTARY: It seems an increasing number of Americans, including elected leaders and journalists, are afraid to tell the truth about what happened on January 6. That's dangerous.
Reposted by Matt "Winter is here"
Amount of blood US has expended defending Greenland: zero. Amount of blood Denmark has expended defending the US: 43 Danish soldiers gave their lives in Afghanistan, responding to a US appeal under article 5 of NATO. Ogles has no idea about any of this, because he's an incompetent buffoon.
Ogles: "It's important that we have a stake in Greenland, that they are quite frankly a protectorate of the US. They've been in relationship with Denmark - that needs to end. We've spilled more blood protecting Greenland than the Danes... we are the dominant predator force in the Western Hemisphere"
January 7, 2026 at 2:29 PM
Amount of blood US has expended defending Greenland: zero. Amount of blood Denmark has expended defending the US: 43 Danish soldiers gave their lives in Afghanistan, responding to a US appeal under article 5 of NATO. Ogles has no idea about any of this, because he's an incompetent buffoon.
Impact of tariffs... what appears to be the case is that exporters are not absorbing losses to keep access to the US market, which wasn't a crazy possibility, at least in some sectors.
Companies are absorbing 95 percent of tariff costs!
Interesting hypothesis: Could tariffs be overall deflationary instead of inflationary?
Why deflationary?
A "Reduced incomes for US producers and reduced investment spending will outweigh direct effect on prices, is the idea"- @jwmason.bsky.social
Interesting hypothesis: Could tariffs be overall deflationary instead of inflationary?
Why deflationary?
A "Reduced incomes for US producers and reduced investment spending will outweigh direct effect on prices, is the idea"- @jwmason.bsky.social
Gopinath doesn't give a source for this number, but it's consistent with other evidence. It's a real puzzle why more tariff costs havne't been passed on, but the fact that they haven't been suggests that the net effect is more likely to be deflationary than inflationary. www.ft.com/content/9c82...
January 7, 2026 at 2:57 PM
Impact of tariffs... what appears to be the case is that exporters are not absorbing losses to keep access to the US market, which wasn't a crazy possibility, at least in some sectors.
Reposted by Matt "Winter is here"
Bloomberg's X account has more than 800k followers. Their most recent post was shared five times
It would basically come at close to zero cost for outlets like Bloomberg to delete their X accounts, and "We don't want to use a non-consensual deepfake abuse app as a comms platform" is a fine excuse
It would basically come at close to zero cost for outlets like Bloomberg to delete their X accounts, and "We don't want to use a non-consensual deepfake abuse app as a comms platform" is a fine excuse
January 7, 2026 at 7:19 AM
Bloomberg's X account has more than 800k followers. Their most recent post was shared five times
It would basically come at close to zero cost for outlets like Bloomberg to delete their X accounts, and "We don't want to use a non-consensual deepfake abuse app as a comms platform" is a fine excuse
It would basically come at close to zero cost for outlets like Bloomberg to delete their X accounts, and "We don't want to use a non-consensual deepfake abuse app as a comms platform" is a fine excuse
Er... yes the early 1980s were scarred by social unrest
However, the mid 80s were not, and the economic growth unleashed by 'Thatcher's war on the unions' (which was entirely necessary) and her other policies lasted for three decades, lifting the entire country
Nothing like 'an irrelevance'
However, the mid 80s were not, and the economic growth unleashed by 'Thatcher's war on the unions' (which was entirely necessary) and her other policies lasted for three decades, lifting the entire country
Nothing like 'an irrelevance'
January 6, 2026 at 6:27 PM
Er... yes the early 1980s were scarred by social unrest
However, the mid 80s were not, and the economic growth unleashed by 'Thatcher's war on the unions' (which was entirely necessary) and her other policies lasted for three decades, lifting the entire country
Nothing like 'an irrelevance'
However, the mid 80s were not, and the economic growth unleashed by 'Thatcher's war on the unions' (which was entirely necessary) and her other policies lasted for three decades, lifting the entire country
Nothing like 'an irrelevance'
Prescient. Can you ask her what the lottery numbers are this week?
(DM me, don't want to share it with everyone! 😜)
(DM me, don't want to share it with everyone! 😜)
January 6, 2026 at 2:59 PM
Prescient. Can you ask her what the lottery numbers are this week?
(DM me, don't want to share it with everyone! 😜)
(DM me, don't want to share it with everyone! 😜)
Being worried about this is 'pearl-clutching', apparently
The US has become a cess-pit run by hormonal teenage dickheads & rapists with a white nationalist and racist worldview
It's pretty hard to imagine a worse fate.
The US has become a cess-pit run by hormonal teenage dickheads & rapists with a white nationalist and racist worldview
It's pretty hard to imagine a worse fate.
One example of how Grok is being used to target women. Swedish Deputy Prime Minister Ebba Busch being sexualised, degraded, and humiliated step-by-step by Grok. All the images accurately reflect the prompts provided.
January 6, 2026 at 12:46 PM
Being worried about this is 'pearl-clutching', apparently
The US has become a cess-pit run by hormonal teenage dickheads & rapists with a white nationalist and racist worldview
It's pretty hard to imagine a worse fate.
The US has become a cess-pit run by hormonal teenage dickheads & rapists with a white nationalist and racist worldview
It's pretty hard to imagine a worse fate.
You've fallen into the trap of assuming what I was thinking when you have no basis for doing so.
January 6, 2026 at 12:43 PM
You've fallen into the trap of assuming what I was thinking when you have no basis for doing so.
So what is the mechanism by which cutting expensive houses cheaper does prices lowers cheap house prices, and what evidence is there for this mechanism?
January 6, 2026 at 12:26 PM
So what is the mechanism by which cutting expensive houses cheaper does prices lowers cheap house prices, and what evidence is there for this mechanism?
If the rich leave, someone else has to pay the taxes they did
Everything, including housing becomes *less* affordable
Everything, including housing becomes *less* affordable
January 6, 2026 at 12:22 PM
If the rich leave, someone else has to pay the taxes they did
Everything, including housing becomes *less* affordable
Everything, including housing becomes *less* affordable
Demand for housing is largely inelastic
January 6, 2026 at 12:21 PM
Demand for housing is largely inelastic
Nope. The effect goes as far as the tax rises. Making expensive houses cheaper does not
Make mid price houses cheaper
Sellers lowering expectations does not change supply
Make mid price houses cheaper
Sellers lowering expectations does not change supply
January 6, 2026 at 12:20 PM
Nope. The effect goes as far as the tax rises. Making expensive houses cheaper does not
Make mid price houses cheaper
Sellers lowering expectations does not change supply
Make mid price houses cheaper
Sellers lowering expectations does not change supply
Reposted by Matt "Winter is here"
Reposted by Matt "Winter is here"
Here's another flaw in X's system. If you report an account like I did last night for generating nude or sexualised images of children, it will remove the account. It won't remove all of Grok's replies to that person, so some of the images generated remain online.
Writing this I had to look through Grok's mentions. Earlier I counted around 8 requests PER MINUTE featuring "bikini" and "her". Thousands of women and girls stripped each day. I found users stripping dozens of women per hour, from female celebrities to gym selfies.
www.thetimes.com/uk/technolog...
www.thetimes.com/uk/technolog...
MPs urge boycott of Elon Musk’s X over Grok AI’s undressing
The call to end use of X for official government communication follows posts of digitally undressed women and children that may have broken UK law
www.thetimes.com
January 6, 2026 at 10:26 AM
Here's another flaw in X's system. If you report an account like I did last night for generating nude or sexualised images of children, it will remove the account. It won't remove all of Grok's replies to that person, so some of the images generated remain online.
Reposted by Matt "Winter is here"
Occasionally they spell it out.
Here's the US at the UN security council this afternoon
Here's the US at the UN security council this afternoon
January 5, 2026 at 5:07 PM
Occasionally they spell it out.
Here's the US at the UN security council this afternoon
Here's the US at the UN security council this afternoon
This is fascinating history...
Perhaps the more unnerving question: what is the equivalent newsletter today?
Perhaps the more unnerving question: what is the equivalent newsletter today?
Here's all 8 pages of CO2 Newsletter Vol 1 no 1 (Oct 1979)
Geologist William N. Barbat published the Newsletter for 3 years (18 issues). They are incredible - detailed, precise and, ultimately, heart-breaking because they reveal how much was known, how many warnings were ignored.
1/8
Geologist William N. Barbat published the Newsletter for 3 years (18 issues). They are incredible - detailed, precise and, ultimately, heart-breaking because they reveal how much was known, how many warnings were ignored.
1/8
January 6, 2026 at 10:22 AM
This is fascinating history...
Perhaps the more unnerving question: what is the equivalent newsletter today?
Perhaps the more unnerving question: what is the equivalent newsletter today?
Yeah, slow population decline - and shorter-term pulses of population - are perfectly manageable... but they do have consequences.
I think population movements in the UK matter just as much as overall decline in schools, but I am not a demographer so take as hypothesis rather than fact.
I think population movements in the UK matter just as much as overall decline in schools, but I am not a demographer so take as hypothesis rather than fact.
January 6, 2026 at 10:03 AM
Yeah, slow population decline - and shorter-term pulses of population - are perfectly manageable... but they do have consequences.
I think population movements in the UK matter just as much as overall decline in schools, but I am not a demographer so take as hypothesis rather than fact.
I think population movements in the UK matter just as much as overall decline in schools, but I am not a demographer so take as hypothesis rather than fact.