Matthew Cebul
@matthewcebul.bsky.social
Political scientist studying civil resistance, democratic erosion, and US foreign policy in MENA. Lead Research Fellow at HKS Nonviolent Action Lab; formerly USIP. Manservant to Korra the cat.
Lives for Alcaraz highlights, epic fantasy, and "draw a card."
Lives for Alcaraz highlights, epic fantasy, and "draw a card."
Pinned
Matthew Cebul
@matthewcebul.bsky.social
· Nov 20
Nonviolent Action Against Democratic Erosion: The United States in Comparative Perspective – Ash Center
ash.harvard.edu
My report on Nonviolent Action against Democratic Erosion is finally out today @harvardash.bsky.social!
I try to put the US democracy movement into global comparative perspective.
For the tl;dr crowd, see below for some key takeaways:
ash.harvard.edu/resources/no...
I try to put the US democracy movement into global comparative perspective.
For the tl;dr crowd, see below for some key takeaways:
ash.harvard.edu/resources/no...
What the fuck is going on at the White House
Trump on Venezuela: "We're going to run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper, and judicious transition"
January 3, 2026 at 4:52 PM
What the fuck is going on at the White House
Trump is signaling to Russia + China, in every way imaginable, that might makes right in your own backyard.
I do not think we are going to like the world that follows.
I do not think we are going to like the world that follows.
January 3, 2026 at 2:12 PM
Trump is signaling to Russia + China, in every way imaginable, that might makes right in your own backyard.
I do not think we are going to like the world that follows.
I do not think we are going to like the world that follows.
Kicking off 2026 writing with @chenoweth.bsky.social on global Gen-Z protests.
Young people do *not* like corruption, and Gen-Z protests are destabilizing corrupt governments everywhere. Yet for several reasons, we should temper expectations for durable democratic reforms to emerge in their wake.
Young people do *not* like corruption, and Gen-Z protests are destabilizing corrupt governments everywhere. Yet for several reasons, we should temper expectations for durable democratic reforms to emerge in their wake.
Young people from Peru to Madagascar to Nepal — furious with political elites reaping the spoils of privilege and corruption — are rising up to demand change, write Erica Chenoweth and @matthewcebul.bsky.social. Read "Why Gen-Z Is Rising" in our new January issue!
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/a...
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/a...
January 2, 2026 at 4:19 PM
Kicking off 2026 writing with @chenoweth.bsky.social on global Gen-Z protests.
Young people do *not* like corruption, and Gen-Z protests are destabilizing corrupt governments everywhere. Yet for several reasons, we should temper expectations for durable democratic reforms to emerge in their wake.
Young people do *not* like corruption, and Gen-Z protests are destabilizing corrupt governments everywhere. Yet for several reasons, we should temper expectations for durable democratic reforms to emerge in their wake.
Diabolical jigsaw puzzle holiday challenge complete! Suck it, family, get stuffed for another year
December 29, 2025 at 5:22 PM
Diabolical jigsaw puzzle holiday challenge complete! Suck it, family, get stuffed for another year
This is one of the best things I read in 2025. MAGA is incompatible with liberal democracy, and liberals cannot just passively tolerate it or wait it out.
It is long past time for liberalism and its allies to come to their own defense, instead of begging their violent assailants to see reason.
It is long past time for liberalism and its allies to come to their own defense, instead of begging their violent assailants to see reason.
Good to see this @polphilpod.bsky.social essay making the rounds again. Raz may be the philosopher of the moment.
newrepublic.com/article/1992...
newrepublic.com/article/1992...
Liberals: Alas, the Time Has Come to Throw John Rawls Under the Bus
The greatest liberal philosopher of the twentieth century guided his creed toward neutrality. In the age of Trump, we can no longer afford that.
newrepublic.com
December 26, 2025 at 1:14 PM
This is one of the best things I read in 2025. MAGA is incompatible with liberal democracy, and liberals cannot just passively tolerate it or wait it out.
It is long past time for liberalism and its allies to come to their own defense, instead of begging their violent assailants to see reason.
It is long past time for liberalism and its allies to come to their own defense, instead of begging their violent assailants to see reason.
A Lord of the Rings cover band called The Eagles (surely they’ll have crossover appeal…)
A Lord of the Rings cover band called Arcade Shire
a Lord of the Rings cover band called Chaka Ghân-buri-Ghân
December 20, 2025 at 7:44 PM
A Lord of the Rings cover band called The Eagles (surely they’ll have crossover appeal…)
You couldn't ask for clearer evidence that Dems' risk aversion is putting them behind the pace of change.
Dems should be stumping on huge marginal rates for billionaires and aggressive prosecution of tax cheats like Musk. Instead, they get out-flanked on cap gains taxes by MITT ROMNEY.
Dems should be stumping on huge marginal rates for billionaires and aggressive prosecution of tax cheats like Musk. Instead, they get out-flanked on cap gains taxes by MITT ROMNEY.
Mitt Romney is in the New York Times saying we should tax the rich.
December 19, 2025 at 6:10 PM
You couldn't ask for clearer evidence that Dems' risk aversion is putting them behind the pace of change.
Dems should be stumping on huge marginal rates for billionaires and aggressive prosecution of tax cheats like Musk. Instead, they get out-flanked on cap gains taxes by MITT ROMNEY.
Dems should be stumping on huge marginal rates for billionaires and aggressive prosecution of tax cheats like Musk. Instead, they get out-flanked on cap gains taxes by MITT ROMNEY.
GOP elites will continue to treat the constitution like toilet paper until they are again made to fear the law.
Dems aren't even in the ballpark of a real commitment to elite accountability, yet, and this is the result.
Dems aren't even in the ballpark of a real commitment to elite accountability, yet, and this is the result.
The Trump Doctrine is, essentially: “Who’s gonna stop you?”
December 19, 2025 at 5:17 PM
GOP elites will continue to treat the constitution like toilet paper until they are again made to fear the law.
Dems aren't even in the ballpark of a real commitment to elite accountability, yet, and this is the result.
Dems aren't even in the ballpark of a real commitment to elite accountability, yet, and this is the result.
💯🎯.
There isn't a shred of evidence anywhere that says that Dems cannot both discredit Trump on his signature policy issue while also raising the salience of their own best issues.
Matty just asserts that this tradeoff is real and binding -- a myopic take that defies all evidence to the contrary.
There isn't a shred of evidence anywhere that says that Dems cannot both discredit Trump on his signature policy issue while also raising the salience of their own best issues.
Matty just asserts that this tradeoff is real and binding -- a myopic take that defies all evidence to the contrary.
Sometimes there are trade offs, but this zero-sum fixation is a poor and inaccurate model of public opinion. Lots of people are doing lots of different things over huge amounts of time. The idea that *at the margin* Van Hollen's activities with KAG *hurt* senate dems chances seems obviously wrong.
December 18, 2025 at 6:29 PM
💯🎯.
There isn't a shred of evidence anywhere that says that Dems cannot both discredit Trump on his signature policy issue while also raising the salience of their own best issues.
Matty just asserts that this tradeoff is real and binding -- a myopic take that defies all evidence to the contrary.
There isn't a shred of evidence anywhere that says that Dems cannot both discredit Trump on his signature policy issue while also raising the salience of their own best issues.
Matty just asserts that this tradeoff is real and binding -- a myopic take that defies all evidence to the contrary.
my favorite genre this year was apparently “medieval“ (D&D background music) so 75 feels extremely generous tbh
December 17, 2025 at 6:28 PM
my favorite genre this year was apparently “medieval“ (D&D background music) so 75 feels extremely generous tbh
I spent my morning re-reading Ikenberry (2018): “The end of liberal international order?” It's required reading for all those who value liberal democracy.
Ikenberry’s thoughts on liberal “community” really jump out at me. A few reflections: (1/x)
Ikenberry’s thoughts on liberal “community” really jump out at me. A few reflections: (1/x)
The end of liberal international order?
Abstract. These are not happy times for liberal internationalists. No one can be sure how deep the crisis of liberal internationalism runs. However, in wha
academic.oup.com
December 16, 2025 at 4:55 PM
I spent my morning re-reading Ikenberry (2018): “The end of liberal international order?” It's required reading for all those who value liberal democracy.
Ikenberry’s thoughts on liberal “community” really jump out at me. A few reflections: (1/x)
Ikenberry’s thoughts on liberal “community” really jump out at me. A few reflections: (1/x)
The Dems have a once in a lifetime opportunity to campaign on widely popular tax expansions on gluttonous billionaires.
But despite all that they have done to empower American fascism, most Dems are still too cowardly to pick a fight with the corrupt billionaire class.
It's pathetic.
But despite all that they have done to empower American fascism, most Dems are still too cowardly to pick a fight with the corrupt billionaire class.
It's pathetic.
"For the first time, a majority of Americans believe billionaires are a threat to democracy. A remarkable 71 percent believe there should be a wealth tax. A majority believe there should be a cap on how much wealth a person can accumulate."
Opinion | The Billionaires Have Gone Full Louis XV
www.nytimes.com
December 15, 2025 at 5:25 PM
The Dems have a once in a lifetime opportunity to campaign on widely popular tax expansions on gluttonous billionaires.
But despite all that they have done to empower American fascism, most Dems are still too cowardly to pick a fight with the corrupt billionaire class.
It's pathetic.
But despite all that they have done to empower American fascism, most Dems are still too cowardly to pick a fight with the corrupt billionaire class.
It's pathetic.
Wow
First Combat Use of Underwater Kamikaze Drones: Russian Kilo class Submarine Disabled in Novorossiysk
The Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) has carried out a special operation in the port of Novorossiysk, marking the first-ever combat use of underwater kamikaze drones.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) has carried out a special operation in the port of Novorossiysk, marking the first-ever combat use of underwater kamikaze drones.
December 15, 2025 at 4:01 PM
Wow
I have long believed that the biggest threat to US democracy is that Dems win in 2028, fail to enact accountability + institutional reforms needed to stabilize US democracy, and then lose in 2032 to another illiberal regime.
Trump has an expiration date. An illiberal ethno-nationalist GOP does not.
Trump has an expiration date. An illiberal ethno-nationalist GOP does not.
In the last few weeks, I’ve become increasingly convinced that Trump and his regime are totally cooked.
They can only stay in power by stealing elections—but they can only do that if enough people are willing to help them.
They’re in a downward spiral and can’t pull themselves out of it.
They can only stay in power by stealing elections—but they can only do that if enough people are willing to help them.
They’re in a downward spiral and can’t pull themselves out of it.
December 12, 2025 at 3:39 PM
I have long believed that the biggest threat to US democracy is that Dems win in 2028, fail to enact accountability + institutional reforms needed to stabilize US democracy, and then lose in 2032 to another illiberal regime.
Trump has an expiration date. An illiberal ethno-nationalist GOP does not.
Trump has an expiration date. An illiberal ethno-nationalist GOP does not.
An incredible result: overwhelming majorities of Americans, across all age groups, understand that social media is harmful and should be heavily regulated, even though we're all too hopelessly addicted to drag ourselves out of the muck
Dec 9-10 poll of 12,856 U.S. adults (+/-1.2 points)
% who support | oppose a U.S. ban of social media use among children under 16
U.S. adults: 66% | 22%
Democrats: 62% | 25%
Republicans: 77% | 15%
18-29: 63% | 24%
30-44: 66% | 20%
45-64: 64% | 21%
65+: 68% | 21%
today.yougov.com/topics/techn...
% who support | oppose a U.S. ban of social media use among children under 16
U.S. adults: 66% | 22%
Democrats: 62% | 25%
Republicans: 77% | 15%
18-29: 63% | 24%
30-44: 66% | 20%
45-64: 64% | 21%
65+: 68% | 21%
today.yougov.com/topics/techn...
December 10, 2025 at 5:20 PM
An incredible result: overwhelming majorities of Americans, across all age groups, understand that social media is harmful and should be heavily regulated, even though we're all too hopelessly addicted to drag ourselves out of the muck
I'm not a betting guy, but this one feels like easy money to me
I’m running for Congress because we need leaders who will fight, not fold. I recognize this moment, and I’m ready to meet it. #FightDontFold #LanderForNYC #LanderForCongress
December 10, 2025 at 2:18 PM
I'm not a betting guy, but this one feels like easy money to me
Reposted by Matthew Cebul
PhD opportunity at the University of Oxford. The Morelli scholarship funds a doctoral student to work with me on on democratic backsliding, strategies of democratic defense and regeneration, or the rise of illiberalism. Deadline Jan 9. More information at users.ox.ac.uk/~ssfc0073/
December 9, 2025 at 6:29 PM
PhD opportunity at the University of Oxford. The Morelli scholarship funds a doctoral student to work with me on on democratic backsliding, strategies of democratic defense and regeneration, or the rise of illiberalism. Deadline Jan 9. More information at users.ox.ac.uk/~ssfc0073/
Ding ding ding, we have a winner
These people are allergic to accountability.
Secretary Talk Show Host is now trying to throw others under the bus for the double-tap strike.
Pete Hegseth needs to be impeached.
Secretary Talk Show Host is now trying to throw others under the bus for the double-tap strike.
Pete Hegseth needs to be impeached.
White House Throws Commanding Admiral Under The Bus In Killing Of Alleged Drug Boat Survivors
Press secretary Karoline Leavitt claimed the apparent war crime was legal even as she said Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth knew nothing about it.
www.huffpost.com
December 9, 2025 at 2:51 PM
Ding ding ding, we have a winner
One of the biggest threats to US democracy today is elected Democrats' refusal to endorse institutional reform.
The Court is broken. Congress is broken. The presidency is broken. US democracy will languish in corrupt dysfunction without major institutional change across every branch of government.
The Court is broken. Congress is broken. The presidency is broken. US democracy will languish in corrupt dysfunction without major institutional change across every branch of government.
Overturning Humphrey’s Executor represents the Supreme Court applying the same principle to itself it would apply to the president: whoever holds the job at the moment is under no obligation to follow any of the laws or limits set by all their predecessors
December 9, 2025 at 2:05 PM
One of the biggest threats to US democracy today is elected Democrats' refusal to endorse institutional reform.
The Court is broken. Congress is broken. The presidency is broken. US democracy will languish in corrupt dysfunction without major institutional change across every branch of government.
The Court is broken. Congress is broken. The presidency is broken. US democracy will languish in corrupt dysfunction without major institutional change across every branch of government.
Evidently, the US democracy movement is going to spend the next three years dragging the Democratic Party kicking and screaming towards its own salvation
This normalizes corruption, feeding the sentiment that both sides suck and so politics is pointless. A Dem party focused on rehabilitating its broken brand would be criticizing Trump and booting out Cuellar. Let the corrupt guys become corporate lobbyists - they’re dragging our party down.
Jeffries claims the charges against Cueller were "very thin" and says Trump's pardon was "exactly the right outcome"
December 3, 2025 at 9:18 PM
Evidently, the US democracy movement is going to spend the next three years dragging the Democratic Party kicking and screaming towards its own salvation
This would be funny if the Dems hadn’t spend the past decade deluding themselves into thinking that “COOPERATE-DEFECT” was a stable equilibrium
California Republican suddenly supporting a national partisan gerrymandering ban. IT’S GAME THEORY BABY THINK OF THE STRATEGERY, WE PLAYING DEFECT-DEFECT NOT DEFECT-COOPERATE, IT’S TIT FOR TAT, CONSIDER THE INCENTIVES
November 26, 2025 at 6:23 PM
This would be funny if the Dems hadn’t spend the past decade deluding themselves into thinking that “COOPERATE-DEFECT” was a stable equilibrium
Great piece. Two comments:
1) Low Gen-Z participation in US protests is a stark departure from the global trend. Gen-Z is mobilizing for anti-corruption protests all over the place. Why not here?
IMO, Brendan's right about Dem weakness. Gerontocratic Dems just aren't authentic on anti-corruption.
1) Low Gen-Z participation in US protests is a stark departure from the global trend. Gen-Z is mobilizing for anti-corruption protests all over the place. Why not here?
IMO, Brendan's right about Dem weakness. Gerontocratic Dems just aren't authentic on anti-corruption.
My @nytimes.com op-ed: The Boomers Are Protesting Trump. Where Is Gen Z? www.nytimes.com/2025/11/24/o... (gift link)
The key point: "The absence of young people from conventional protests is both a problem and a warning."
The key point: "The absence of young people from conventional protests is both a problem and a warning."
Opinion | The Boomers Are Protesting Trump. Where Is Gen Z?
www.nytimes.com
November 25, 2025 at 4:08 PM
Great piece. Two comments:
1) Low Gen-Z participation in US protests is a stark departure from the global trend. Gen-Z is mobilizing for anti-corruption protests all over the place. Why not here?
IMO, Brendan's right about Dem weakness. Gerontocratic Dems just aren't authentic on anti-corruption.
1) Low Gen-Z participation in US protests is a stark departure from the global trend. Gen-Z is mobilizing for anti-corruption protests all over the place. Why not here?
IMO, Brendan's right about Dem weakness. Gerontocratic Dems just aren't authentic on anti-corruption.
Cracks me up every time
November 21, 2025 at 8:21 PM
Cracks me up every time
I opposed Trump's Iran strikes b/c I worried (and still do) that they all but guarantee future Iranian attempts to nuclearize.
For now, however, Iran may have bigger problems. "Our capital city is running out of water" + "we have no $$ due to sanctions" is not a good look.
For now, however, Iran may have bigger problems. "Our capital city is running out of water" + "we have no $$ due to sanctions" is not a good look.
This seems like a crazy important story that is getting very little coverage here - especially if it destabilizes the regime
'Iran’s capital must be moved because the country “no longer has a choice,” President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Thursday in remarks carried by state media, warning that severe ecological strain has made Tehran impossible to sustain'
#Iran 🇮🇷
#Iran 🇮🇷
November 21, 2025 at 5:16 PM
I opposed Trump's Iran strikes b/c I worried (and still do) that they all but guarantee future Iranian attempts to nuclearize.
For now, however, Iran may have bigger problems. "Our capital city is running out of water" + "we have no $$ due to sanctions" is not a good look.
For now, however, Iran may have bigger problems. "Our capital city is running out of water" + "we have no $$ due to sanctions" is not a good look.