Matthew Cebul
@matthewcebul.bsky.social
Political scientist studying civil resistance, democratic erosion, and US foreign policy in MENA. Lead Research Fellow at HKS Nonviolent Action Lab; formerly USIP. Manservant to Korra the cat.
Lives for Alcaraz highlights, epic fantasy, and "draw a card."
Lives for Alcaraz highlights, epic fantasy, and "draw a card."
Pinned
Young people from Peru to Madagascar to Nepal — furious with political elites reaping the spoils of privilege and corruption — are rising up to demand change, write Erica Chenoweth and @matthewcebul.bsky.social. Read "Why Gen-Z Is Rising" in our new January issue!
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/a...
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/a...
Kicking off 2026 writing with @chenoweth.bsky.social on global Gen-Z protests.
Young people do *not* like corruption, and Gen-Z protests are destabilizing corrupt governments everywhere. Yet for several reasons, we should temper expectations for durable democratic reforms to emerge in their wake.
Young people do *not* like corruption, and Gen-Z protests are destabilizing corrupt governments everywhere. Yet for several reasons, we should temper expectations for durable democratic reforms to emerge in their wake.
Reposted by Matthew Cebul
Iranian official says verified deaths in Iran protests reaches at least 5,000 reut.rs/3ZiPI21
Iranian official says verified deaths in Iran protests reaches at least 5,000
An Iranian official in the region said on Sunday the authorities had verified at least 5,000 people had been killed in protests in Iran, including about 500 security personnel, blaming "terrorists and armed rioters" for killing "innocent Iranians".
reut.rs
January 18, 2026 at 9:30 AM
Iranian official says verified deaths in Iran protests reaches at least 5,000 reut.rs/3ZiPI21
These body count estimates are all highly uncertain, given the internet + media blackout, but even half this would be staggering. It's been two weeks!
January 13, 2026 at 8:51 PM
These body count estimates are all highly uncertain, given the internet + media blackout, but even half this would be staggering. It's been two weeks!
Kicking off 2026 writing with @chenoweth.bsky.social on global Gen-Z protests.
Young people do *not* like corruption, and Gen-Z protests are destabilizing corrupt governments everywhere. Yet for several reasons, we should temper expectations for durable democratic reforms to emerge in their wake.
Young people do *not* like corruption, and Gen-Z protests are destabilizing corrupt governments everywhere. Yet for several reasons, we should temper expectations for durable democratic reforms to emerge in their wake.
Young people from Peru to Madagascar to Nepal — furious with political elites reaping the spoils of privilege and corruption — are rising up to demand change, write Erica Chenoweth and @matthewcebul.bsky.social. Read "Why Gen-Z Is Rising" in our new January issue!
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/a...
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/a...
January 2, 2026 at 4:19 PM
Kicking off 2026 writing with @chenoweth.bsky.social on global Gen-Z protests.
Young people do *not* like corruption, and Gen-Z protests are destabilizing corrupt governments everywhere. Yet for several reasons, we should temper expectations for durable democratic reforms to emerge in their wake.
Young people do *not* like corruption, and Gen-Z protests are destabilizing corrupt governments everywhere. Yet for several reasons, we should temper expectations for durable democratic reforms to emerge in their wake.
Diabolical jigsaw puzzle holiday challenge complete! Suck it, family, get stuffed for another year
December 29, 2025 at 5:22 PM
Diabolical jigsaw puzzle holiday challenge complete! Suck it, family, get stuffed for another year
Wow
First Combat Use of Underwater Kamikaze Drones: Russian Kilo class Submarine Disabled in Novorossiysk
The Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) has carried out a special operation in the port of Novorossiysk, marking the first-ever combat use of underwater kamikaze drones.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) has carried out a special operation in the port of Novorossiysk, marking the first-ever combat use of underwater kamikaze drones.
December 15, 2025 at 4:01 PM
Wow
Reposted by Matthew Cebul
PhD opportunity at the University of Oxford. The Morelli scholarship funds a doctoral student to work with me on on democratic backsliding, strategies of democratic defense and regeneration, or the rise of illiberalism. Deadline Jan 9. More information at users.ox.ac.uk/~ssfc0073/
December 9, 2025 at 6:29 PM
PhD opportunity at the University of Oxford. The Morelli scholarship funds a doctoral student to work with me on on democratic backsliding, strategies of democratic defense and regeneration, or the rise of illiberalism. Deadline Jan 9. More information at users.ox.ac.uk/~ssfc0073/
Great piece. Two comments:
1) Low Gen-Z participation in US protests is a stark departure from the global trend. Gen-Z is mobilizing for anti-corruption protests all over the place. Why not here?
IMO, Brendan's right about Dem weakness. Gerontocratic Dems just aren't authentic on anti-corruption.
1) Low Gen-Z participation in US protests is a stark departure from the global trend. Gen-Z is mobilizing for anti-corruption protests all over the place. Why not here?
IMO, Brendan's right about Dem weakness. Gerontocratic Dems just aren't authentic on anti-corruption.
My @nytimes.com op-ed: The Boomers Are Protesting Trump. Where Is Gen Z? www.nytimes.com/2025/11/24/o... (gift link)
The key point: "The absence of young people from conventional protests is both a problem and a warning."
The key point: "The absence of young people from conventional protests is both a problem and a warning."
Opinion | The Boomers Are Protesting Trump. Where Is Gen Z?
www.nytimes.com
November 25, 2025 at 4:08 PM
Great piece. Two comments:
1) Low Gen-Z participation in US protests is a stark departure from the global trend. Gen-Z is mobilizing for anti-corruption protests all over the place. Why not here?
IMO, Brendan's right about Dem weakness. Gerontocratic Dems just aren't authentic on anti-corruption.
1) Low Gen-Z participation in US protests is a stark departure from the global trend. Gen-Z is mobilizing for anti-corruption protests all over the place. Why not here?
IMO, Brendan's right about Dem weakness. Gerontocratic Dems just aren't authentic on anti-corruption.
Reposted by Matthew Cebul
Hungary’s Orban seemed undefeatable a year ago.
Then Peter Magyar broke through with a powerful anti-corruption platform, rapidly consolidated the fractured opposition, and now leads Fidesz comfortably.
Anti-corruption defeats authoritarianism worldwide. It will work here, too.
Then Peter Magyar broke through with a powerful anti-corruption platform, rapidly consolidated the fractured opposition, and now leads Fidesz comfortably.
Anti-corruption defeats authoritarianism worldwide. It will work here, too.
November 20, 2025 at 8:01 PM
Hungary’s Orban seemed undefeatable a year ago.
Then Peter Magyar broke through with a powerful anti-corruption platform, rapidly consolidated the fractured opposition, and now leads Fidesz comfortably.
Anti-corruption defeats authoritarianism worldwide. It will work here, too.
Then Peter Magyar broke through with a powerful anti-corruption platform, rapidly consolidated the fractured opposition, and now leads Fidesz comfortably.
Anti-corruption defeats authoritarianism worldwide. It will work here, too.
My report on Nonviolent Action against Democratic Erosion is finally out today @harvardash.bsky.social!
I try to put the US democracy movement into global comparative perspective.
For the tl;dr crowd, see below for some key takeaways:
ash.harvard.edu/resources/no...
I try to put the US democracy movement into global comparative perspective.
For the tl;dr crowd, see below for some key takeaways:
ash.harvard.edu/resources/no...
Nonviolent Action Against Democratic Erosion: The United States in Comparative Perspective – Ash Center
ash.harvard.edu
November 20, 2025 at 5:57 PM
My report on Nonviolent Action against Democratic Erosion is finally out today @harvardash.bsky.social!
I try to put the US democracy movement into global comparative perspective.
For the tl;dr crowd, see below for some key takeaways:
ash.harvard.edu/resources/no...
I try to put the US democracy movement into global comparative perspective.
For the tl;dr crowd, see below for some key takeaways:
ash.harvard.edu/resources/no...
Hat tip to @wired.com for this excellent piece of journalism on Gen-Z protests in Nepal www.wired.com/story/nepal-...
The Inside Story of How Gen Z Toppled Nepal’s Leader and Chose a New One on Discord
The revolution started on social media. It ended with protests, violence, and an online poll to pick the new prime minister.
www.wired.com
November 15, 2025 at 3:30 PM
Hat tip to @wired.com for this excellent piece of journalism on Gen-Z protests in Nepal www.wired.com/story/nepal-...
it's right next to the Siren School for Nautical Navigation
Sisypheus hauling services. You’ll keep calling us back.
This is a real flight school, teaching people to fly planes!!! Like????
November 14, 2025 at 2:03 PM
it's right next to the Siren School for Nautical Navigation
Reposted by Matthew Cebul
My team at the Crowd Counting Consortium (@djpressman.bsky.social, Hammam, & Chris Shay) has a new piece, whose title speaks for itself. A 🧵 with some key descriptive takeaways:
The resistance reaches into Trump country
As organizers for No Kings 2 seek historic turnout on Oct. 18, the broader pro-democracy movement has already broken new ground.
wagingnonviolence.org
October 16, 2025 at 8:11 PM
My team at the Crowd Counting Consortium (@djpressman.bsky.social, Hammam, & Chris Shay) has a new piece, whose title speaks for itself. A 🧵 with some key descriptive takeaways:
Really looking forward to this one!
Join @stevelevitsky.bsky.social & me for the first episode of our new series The Breakdown. Register here to join us live on Monday, 10/20 at 4pm ET: ash.harvard.edu/events/the-b...
The Breakdown – Ash Center
Join Erica Chenoweth and Steven Levitsky for The Breakdown, a webinar series on the ongoing struggle for American democracy. Each month, Chenoweth and Levitsky will break down key developments, reflec...
ash.harvard.edu
October 16, 2025 at 10:37 PM
Really looking forward to this one!
This seems like an awesome job for data science folks who want to make a difference in the world.
I've gotten a few questions about whether @statesprojectus.bsky.social is hiring for any open data positions and good news, we are! Salary of around $100,000 jobs.lever.co/statesprojec...
The States Project - Senior Data Analyst, Data & Analytics
Position: Senior Data Analyst, Data & Analytics Location: Remote, with 5% of expected travel for in-person team meetings and events. Deadline to apply: August 22, 2025 Who We Are The States Project (TSP) connects the importance of state legislatures to every aspect of our lives and brings together communities to help build a healthy, sustainable, and prosperous future for all. Our electoral work focuses on winning governing majorities in the states by making state legislative campaigns more effective and better funded. Our governance work provides nonpartisan tools and resources that connect a diverse community of state lawmakers committed to improving lives for the people they serve. We do it because we believe that state legislatures are the strongest force for change in this country. We encourage you to find out more about our values here. Position Details This is a full-time, exempt, at-will position that will work across The States Project and affiliated initiatives. The tea
jobs.lever.co
August 13, 2025 at 3:07 PM
This seems like an awesome job for data science folks who want to make a difference in the world.
This is the best article about tennis that I've read in some time. Cracking the top 100 in a highly physical, fully global, one on one sport is very hard.
This guy was ranked 129 in the world -- 129 out of ~8 billion --and you couldn't pay me to have his life.
www.theguardian.com/sport/articl...
This guy was ranked 129 in the world -- 129 out of ~8 billion --and you couldn't pay me to have his life.
www.theguardian.com/sport/articl...
‘I’m good, I promise’: the loneliness of the low-ranking tennis player
The long read: I was once Ireland’s No 1 player, and tried for years to climb the global ranks. But life at the bottom of the top can be brutal
www.theguardian.com
July 30, 2025 at 4:46 PM
This is the best article about tennis that I've read in some time. Cracking the top 100 in a highly physical, fully global, one on one sport is very hard.
This guy was ranked 129 in the world -- 129 out of ~8 billion --and you couldn't pay me to have his life.
www.theguardian.com/sport/articl...
This guy was ranked 129 in the world -- 129 out of ~8 billion --and you couldn't pay me to have his life.
www.theguardian.com/sport/articl...
Today, I wrote for @wpr.bsky.social on Andor and its lessons for nonviolent resistance.
Andor is truly a masterpiece, and my writing can't do it justice. Still, I hope you find as much inspiration in the show (and this commentary) as I did!
Andor is truly a masterpiece, and my writing can't do it justice. Still, I hope you find as much inspiration in the show (and this commentary) as I did!
‘Andor’ Can Teach Us a Lot About Nonviolent Resistance, Too
Andor is quickly becoming canon for experts on insurgencies and armed rebellions. But it has a lot to say about nonviolent civil resistance, too.
www.worldpoliticsreview.com
July 23, 2025 at 7:05 PM
Today, I wrote for @wpr.bsky.social on Andor and its lessons for nonviolent resistance.
Andor is truly a masterpiece, and my writing can't do it justice. Still, I hope you find as much inspiration in the show (and this commentary) as I did!
Andor is truly a masterpiece, and my writing can't do it justice. Still, I hope you find as much inspiration in the show (and this commentary) as I did!
Reposted by Matthew Cebul
🚨JOB ALERT🚨
We (pdri-devlab) are hiring a research manager! Come join our team engaged in policy-relevant collaborative research (mostly migration, climate, enviormnet, big data for dev) in the great city of brotherly love. Pls share widely with your network.
wd1.myworkdaysite.com/en-US/recrui...
We (pdri-devlab) are hiring a research manager! Come join our team engaged in policy-relevant collaborative research (mostly migration, climate, enviormnet, big data for dev) in the great city of brotherly love. Pls share widely with your network.
wd1.myworkdaysite.com/en-US/recrui...
Research Manager, DevLab@Penn
University Overview The University of Pennsylvania, the largest private employer in Philadelphia, is a world-renowned leader in education, research, and innovation. This historic, Ivy League school co...
wd1.myworkdaysite.com
July 3, 2025 at 1:10 PM
🚨JOB ALERT🚨
We (pdri-devlab) are hiring a research manager! Come join our team engaged in policy-relevant collaborative research (mostly migration, climate, enviormnet, big data for dev) in the great city of brotherly love. Pls share widely with your network.
wd1.myworkdaysite.com/en-US/recrui...
We (pdri-devlab) are hiring a research manager! Come join our team engaged in policy-relevant collaborative research (mostly migration, climate, enviormnet, big data for dev) in the great city of brotherly love. Pls share widely with your network.
wd1.myworkdaysite.com/en-US/recrui...
Dimitrov, up 2 sets to love against world #1 Sinner at Wimbledon, hits an ace and then immediately collapses. Looks like a freak, horrible shoulder injury.
This guy just cannot catch a break.
This guy just cannot catch a break.
July 7, 2025 at 8:02 PM
Dimitrov, up 2 sets to love against world #1 Sinner at Wimbledon, hits an ace and then immediately collapses. Looks like a freak, horrible shoulder injury.
This guy just cannot catch a break.
This guy just cannot catch a break.
Reposted by Matthew Cebul
How do nonviolent alternatives affect international support for violent rebel groups? @matthewcebul.bsky.social (@usip.org) and Jonathan Pinckney (University of Texas at Dallas) explore this question in a new article drawing on two cross-national survey experiments spanning 30+ countries.
June 30, 2025 at 9:30 AM
How do nonviolent alternatives affect international support for violent rebel groups? @matthewcebul.bsky.social (@usip.org) and Jonathan Pinckney (University of Texas at Dallas) explore this question in a new article drawing on two cross-national survey experiments spanning 30+ countries.
Check out the Civic Forum, a new webinar series that @rorytruex.bsky.social is launching on democracy and authoritarianism. I think it looks great! www.thecivicforum.com
The Civic Forum | Conversations About Our Democracy
Explore webinars on democracy, authoritarianism, and activism featuring leading scholars and practitioners. Stay informed and engaged with The Civic Forum.
www.thecivicforum.com
June 24, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Check out the Civic Forum, a new webinar series that @rorytruex.bsky.social is launching on democracy and authoritarianism. I think it looks great! www.thecivicforum.com
Happy to see this out in the world!
In a nutshell: people are more willing to support violence when they don't see readily available nonviolent alternatives.
In a nutshell: people are more willing to support violence when they don't see readily available nonviolent alternatives.
New study by @matthewcebul.bsky.social & J. Pinckney asks “How do nonviolent alternatives affect international support for violent rebel groups?”
Surveys across 30+ countries find “alternative resistance options consistently reduce support for armed rebellion…” journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Surveys across 30+ countries find “alternative resistance options consistently reduce support for armed rebellion…” journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Nonviolent alternatives reduce external support for rebel groups: Evidence from two cross-national survey experiments - Matthew Cebul, Jonathan Pinckney, 2025
How do nonviolent alternatives affect international support for violent rebel groups? Armed rebellions are often sustained by outside sympathy and support, whic...
journals.sagepub.com
June 23, 2025 at 7:58 PM
Happy to see this out in the world!
In a nutshell: people are more willing to support violence when they don't see readily available nonviolent alternatives.
In a nutshell: people are more willing to support violence when they don't see readily available nonviolent alternatives.
Omar has been doing excellent public engagement on the power of nonviolence -- this article + thread noting common concerns is a great resource.
Yesterday, @robbwiller.bsky.social and I published an opinion essay making the case for the power of nonviolent protest. I’m proud of our work but also think we could have done more to “steel man” case *against* nonviolence. Here’s essay. Some counterarguments in 🧵 www.nytimes.com/2025/06/17/o...
Opinion | This Is What Makes Protests Successful
www.nytimes.com
June 18, 2025 at 7:16 PM
Omar has been doing excellent public engagement on the power of nonviolence -- this article + thread noting common concerns is a great resource.
Reposted by Matthew Cebul
Smart analysis of the No Kings protests estimates roughly 4-6 million people protested Trump across America yesterday. The anti-Trump resistance is unprecedented, and exceeds his first term.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/no-kings-d...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/no-kings-d...
June 15, 2025 at 12:27 PM
Smart analysis of the No Kings protests estimates roughly 4-6 million people protested Trump across America yesterday. The anti-Trump resistance is unprecedented, and exceeds his first term.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/no-kings-d...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/no-kings-d...