Leroy
leroylynch.bsky.social
Leroy
@leroylynch.bsky.social
ALP member. Social Democrat. Posts are mainly news, plus some history and general interest.
One Nation surges to 24% support in Tasmania, surpassing Liberals in federal polling
pulsetasmania.com.au/news/one-nat... #auspol #politas
"The fresh EMRS poll showed Labor leading the Liberals 60-40 on a two-party preferred basis federally in Tasmania."
February 20, 2026 at 9:10 AM
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(It has been quite a stark thing down the years just how much Wilkie overperforms the generic IND polled vote, he will often nearly double it.)
February 20, 2026 at 8:15 AM
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#EMRS Tas (federal)
ALP 30 Lib 18 Grn 13 Nat 1 ON 24 IND 12 other 1.

I believe Wilkie wasn't named in Clark so the IND vote will be underestimated there if he runs again, but it will probably be overestimated everywhere bar Clark #politas
February 20, 2026 at 7:53 AM
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Also amusing that for the first time in his tawdry political life, Barnyard chose to STFU for once
February 20, 2026 at 8:43 AM
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Hanson collecting breaches of the Racial Discrimination Act like normal people collect rewards points, except your rewards points are usually politically accidental.
February 20, 2026 at 8:41 AM
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Interesting to voluntarily ditch 'Australia' along with the necessary 'Sky News' - doubling down on the YouTube MAGA loony international audience?
February 20, 2026 at 7:18 AM
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Industrial grunt work stuff, but it doesn't take jobs. In many cases, it creates scale for a smaller firm to hire more people to use it as a force multiplier of their outputs.
February 20, 2026 at 5:00 AM
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I still have the view that the big changes that AI will bring won't be things using words - which is what most people see - but industrial matters. I did some stuff for a firm that is trying to use AI to identify compounds in coal tar. They're getting 5 times more compound identity for every lab guy
February 20, 2026 at 4:59 AM
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Ten years ago, the thought of acknowledging other intelligent life in the universe if it exists was fraught with concern about political and religious stability etc. Now everyone would be like "those fuckers were probably in the Epstein files too"
February 20, 2026 at 2:22 AM
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OUR BUSINESS IS MOVING (1970)
February 20, 2026 at 3:59 AM
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yes. Covid doomerism must cash out as antivax insanity because the vaccines do, in fact, work. we've had them for many years at this point bsky.app/profile/bird...
It basically is soft anti vax sentiment. Basically implies that mass vaccination isnt effective at all
February 18, 2026 at 5:43 PM
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I guess people have forgotten that Trump started the pandemic by refusing to test and bringing in tens of thousands of people in crowded airports. and then stole PPE from blue states. and then suggested bleach or UV light might cure it. and then tried to kill Biden with it. and then
February 18, 2026 at 5:38 PM
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Biden was far from perfect but he implemented a highly effective free vaccine rollout. he was going to do even better with the vaccine work requirement until the Supreme Court stopped him, literally massacring loyal Republican voters by the tens of thousands as a result
February 18, 2026 at 5:35 PM
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I have seen this claim several times on here and it is abject fucking madness. bordering on antivax sentiment
February 18, 2026 at 5:33 PM
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The Farrer by-election is still a ways off, but we have published our guide to the race as it currently stands: www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
Farrer By-election 2026
Overview of the Farrer electorate in the Farrer by-election 2026
www.abc.net.au
February 20, 2026 at 3:14 AM
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kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/02/sout... South Australia 2026: What Can The Right Still Win? #saparli
South Australia 2026: What Can The Right Still Win?
Tasmanian and Australian psephology, opinion poll analysis, election analysis and political commentary by Dr Kevin Bonham.
kevinbonham.blogspot.com
February 20, 2026 at 12:29 AM
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no affordable phone upgrades until 2027, maybe 2028! yaaaay

ya know those hole in the wall phone repair shops, run by a little weird dude who can repair absolutely anything and harangues you never to charge your phone over 80% and especially not overnight? yeah, those guys are gonna be the NEW GODS
February 19, 2026 at 11:32 PM
Basically the argument of this. "The Royalist Revolution: Monarchy and the American Founding" by Eric Nelson
www.goodreads.com/book/show/21...
February 20, 2026 at 2:52 AM
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It is always fascinating how the American founding mythos blames the King for Parliament's actions
In part I suspect because it's kinda anathema to the American mind to conceive of George III, a product of the resulting uneasy truce, as a constitutional monarch and not the Absolutist Enslaving The Colonies.
February 19, 2026 at 11:59 PM
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Compare this to socials traffic which overwhelmingly comes from Facebook. If you've ever wondered why it feels like your parents live in a totally parallel world to you, this is why.
February 19, 2026 at 11:17 PM
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This is specifically tallies of the phrases "posted on or to platform" which will favour sensational quotes over novel story discovery which might favour Reddit or LinkedIn
February 19, 2026 at 11:14 PM
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In a case of me having to update my priors, Streem's state of the sector report shows that Australian news outlets still overwhelmingly draw social media stories from Twitter over all over apps. A big of this will be the dominance of Twitter in contemporary US politics.
February 19, 2026 at 11:12 PM
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So this is hard because it has to simultaneously be passed through the parliaments of every country that shares rhe British royals under a joint agreement made in 2011
He needs to be removed from the line of succession - which he’s still in at 8th - but yah not zero
February 20, 2026 at 2:00 AM
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It’s an online circle jerk of self-styled “enlightenment centrists” who are actually just reactionaries opposed to whatever the left is for.
February 19, 2026 at 2:45 PM