Karl Whelan
@karlwhelan.bsky.social
Professor of Economics, University College Dublin. www.karlwhelan.com has research, teaching materials, stuff on the ECB and even a few old blog posts. Remember them? Currently doing research on betting and prediction markets and some macro things.
Pinned
Karl Whelan
@karlwhelan.bsky.social
· Nov 20
Karl Whelan | Economist, University College Dublin
karlwhelan.com
You can find out more about me at karlwhelan.com
My research is at
karlwhelan.com/blog/?page_i...
Teaching materials on macroeconomics and money and banking at
karlwhelan.com/blog/?page_i...
My work on ECB monetary policy for the European Parliament is at
karlwhelan.com/blog/?page_i...
My research is at
karlwhelan.com/blog/?page_i...
Teaching materials on macroeconomics and money and banking at
karlwhelan.com/blog/?page_i...
My work on ECB monetary policy for the European Parliament is at
karlwhelan.com/blog/?page_i...
Reposted by Karl Whelan
This chart seems to suggest a striking pattern: Kevin Warsh's speeches are consistently hawkish, except when Trump is President and about to appoint a new Fed Chair.
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
February 5, 2026 at 9:22 PM
This chart seems to suggest a striking pattern: Kevin Warsh's speeches are consistently hawkish, except when Trump is President and about to appoint a new Fed Chair.
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
"I didn't want to hurt this person's feelings by outright rejecting their invitation to go for a drink. But I decided to write about it in the Guardian."
Want to avoid an invitation? Try the 'soft no' | Polly Hudson
Want to avoid an invitation? Try the 'soft no' | Polly Hudson
I didn’t know how to refuse the offer of a drink without causing offence – until I learned how to kindly demur, writes Polly Hudson
www.theguardian.com
February 4, 2026 at 12:00 PM
"I didn't want to hurt this person's feelings by outright rejecting their invitation to go for a drink. But I decided to write about it in the Guardian."
Reporting always focuses on outrage rather than benefits. I lived in this area from 2007-15 and know it well. Those golf "amenities" (driving range and pitch and putt) are of limited use to most locals. But they could make for many homes in a nice part of Dublin.
www.irishtimes.com/ireland/dubl...
www.irishtimes.com/ireland/dubl...
‘How dare you’: South Dublin residents vent at plan to redesignate golf amenities for housing
Majority of objections to council proposals relate to Stepaside driving range and Jamestown pitch and putt
www.irishtimes.com
February 3, 2026 at 12:49 AM
Reporting always focuses on outrage rather than benefits. I lived in this area from 2007-15 and know it well. Those golf "amenities" (driving range and pitch and putt) are of limited use to most locals. But they could make for many homes in a nice part of Dublin.
www.irishtimes.com/ireland/dubl...
www.irishtimes.com/ireland/dubl...
And you if you’ve never heard Liz Fraser sing it, do yourself a favour and take 3 minutes now.
youtu.be/HFWKJ2FUiAQ?...
youtu.be/HFWKJ2FUiAQ?...
This Mortal Coil - Song To The Siren (Official Video)
YouTube video by 4AD
youtu.be
February 1, 2026 at 2:47 AM
And you if you’ve never heard Liz Fraser sing it, do yourself a favour and take 3 minutes now.
youtu.be/HFWKJ2FUiAQ?...
youtu.be/HFWKJ2FUiAQ?...
If you guys all know about this before and didn’t tell me, I’ll be super annoyed!
February 1, 2026 at 2:22 AM
If you guys all know about this before and didn’t tell me, I’ll be super annoyed!
Somehow I had never seen this before. Tim Buckley singing Song to the Siren on a Monkees TV special in 1968. Incredible.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=vaa2...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=vaa2...
Tim Buckley - Song to the Siren (The Monkees '68) Remastered HD
YouTube video by TheRightEarOfNash
www.youtube.com
February 1, 2026 at 2:21 AM
Somehow I had never seen this before. Tim Buckley singing Song to the Siren on a Monkees TV special in 1968. Incredible.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=vaa2...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=vaa2...
Some material for Chairman-designate Warsh to study. Most of my undergraduates can figure this stuff out so I reckon he can get on top of it before his hearings.
www.karlwhelan.com/IMB/part11.pdf
www.karlwhelan.com/IMB/part11.pdf
www.karlwhelan.com
January 31, 2026 at 2:08 AM
Some material for Chairman-designate Warsh to study. Most of my undergraduates can figure this stuff out so I reckon he can get on top of it before his hearings.
www.karlwhelan.com/IMB/part11.pdf
www.karlwhelan.com/IMB/part11.pdf
Would love to be a fly on the wall at the cat-on-mat ample reserves briefings. Some old colleagues of mine working super hard to be as professional as possible while telling the unvarnished truths.
January 30, 2026 at 10:24 PM
Would love to be a fly on the wall at the cat-on-mat ample reserves briefings. Some old colleagues of mine working super hard to be as professional as possible while telling the unvarnished truths.
Shorter answer. I don't see a Trump majority FOMC during his (current ....) term.
January 30, 2026 at 10:22 PM
Shorter answer. I don't see a Trump majority FOMC during his (current ....) term.
Warsh will likely replace Miran. Powell will likely quit and be replaced. I think the rest of the board of Governors have terms beyond Trump term. FOMC has the 7 Governors and 5 regional bank presidents, who are appointed by their boards (with BoG approval).
January 30, 2026 at 10:22 PM
Warsh will likely replace Miran. Powell will likely quit and be replaced. I think the rest of the board of Governors have terms beyond Trump term. FOMC has the 7 Governors and 5 regional bank presidents, who are appointed by their boards (with BoG approval).
Not that anyone asked me but, yes, Warsh is obviously an unqualified hack. In terms of the impact he could have on policy, however, there aren't enough Trump appointees on the current FOMC for the commitee to be pursuaded by Chairman Warsh on policy. paulkrugman.substack.com/p/a-bad-heir...
A Bad Heir Day at the Fed
No, Kevin Warsh isn’t qualified
paulkrugman.substack.com
January 30, 2026 at 8:47 PM
Not that anyone asked me but, yes, Warsh is obviously an unqualified hack. In terms of the impact he could have on policy, however, there aren't enough Trump appointees on the current FOMC for the commitee to be pursuaded by Chairman Warsh on policy. paulkrugman.substack.com/p/a-bad-heir...
Jo, I think the one thing we don't need to worry about is that Warsh can somehow jawbone the FOMC into reversing the ample reserves policy. Not only will the rest of the committee not go along but the staff will give him cat-on-mat briefings about it and he will almost certainly drop it.
January 30, 2026 at 8:42 PM
Jo, I think the one thing we don't need to worry about is that Warsh can somehow jawbone the FOMC into reversing the ample reserves policy. Not only will the rest of the committee not go along but the staff will give him cat-on-mat briefings about it and he will almost certainly drop it.
Skip the word trade in the headline and you're closer to the truth.
www.irishtimes.com/politics/202...
www.irishtimes.com/politics/202...
European leaders hope to avoid Greenland dispute escalating into trade war
Macron likely to propose first ever use of bloc’s ‘bazooka’ emergency power to increase its negotiating leverage
www.irishtimes.com
January 19, 2026 at 11:35 PM
Skip the word trade in the headline and you're closer to the truth.
www.irishtimes.com/politics/202...
www.irishtimes.com/politics/202...
Reposted by Karl Whelan
I worked closely with Hassett for about a year at the Fed in the 90s. As his TV persona suggests, he really was a nice guy in person. But his long descent into MAGA hackery has been pretty painful to watch. Hard to know if it's bank account boosting cynicism or he's just lost connection with reality
The Trump Administration claims the Fed is biased toward Democrats and is studying whether to fire Powell
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Trump Studying Whether Removing Powell Is Option, Hassett Says
Donald Trump is studying whether he’s able to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, his top economist said Friday, a day after the president publicly criticized the head of the central bank for...
www.bloomberg.com
April 18, 2025 at 8:53 PM
I worked closely with Hassett for about a year at the Fed in the 90s. As his TV persona suggests, he really was a nice guy in person. But his long descent into MAGA hackery has been pretty painful to watch. Hard to know if it's bank account boosting cynicism or he's just lost connection with reality
Reposted by Karl Whelan
Lately, I've been working on betting and prediction markets. Here's a working paper on this topic written with two UCD colleagues -- it is (AFAIK) the only systematic analysis of the prices on the Kalshi prediction market. We're still in pre-submission mode so comments\critiques welcome.
www.ucd.ie
July 19, 2025 at 12:03 PM
Lately, I've been working on betting and prediction markets. Here's a working paper on this topic written with two UCD colleagues -- it is (AFAIK) the only systematic analysis of the prices on the Kalshi prediction market. We're still in pre-submission mode so comments\critiques welcome.
Seeing a journalist lose their mind on X, I remember when they misunderstood something to do with solvency/liquidity of banks a few years ago. Attempts to explain were dismissed as "mansplaining". Someone even recommeded my lecture notes! Certainty you're never wrong + social media leads to madness.
December 2, 2025 at 1:17 AM
Seeing a journalist lose their mind on X, I remember when they misunderstood something to do with solvency/liquidity of banks a few years ago. Attempts to explain were dismissed as "mansplaining". Someone even recommeded my lecture notes! Certainty you're never wrong + social media leads to madness.
Judge says they do not tend to quash things on the basis of “mere technicalities” as he quashes a much needed 221 bed student accommodation building over a "defective newspaper notice" and not erecting a changed site notice because these impacted the right of this one guy to object to it.
Planning approval overturned for 221-bed student accommodation in north Dublin
Courts do not quash things on ‘mere technicalities’, says judge following decision on Santry development
www.irishtimes.com
November 30, 2025 at 8:15 PM
Judge says they do not tend to quash things on the basis of “mere technicalities” as he quashes a much needed 221 bed student accommodation building over a "defective newspaper notice" and not erecting a changed site notice because these impacted the right of this one guy to object to it.
Well, the good news for you is that you get to live in a country that works the way you want it to. But perhaps you can understand why people who want to see important and widely-beneficial infrastructure projects get done are frustrated with that system.
November 25, 2025 at 8:55 PM
Well, the good news for you is that you get to live in a country that works the way you want it to. But perhaps you can understand why people who want to see important and widely-beneficial infrastructure projects get done are frustrated with that system.
It's 20 people versus the biggest infrastructure project in the country. Yes, I'm comfortable with that.
Other parts of the world manage to get things built while maintaning democracy. There are clearly many better and faster ways to build infrastructure without endless JRs.
Other parts of the world manage to get things built while maintaning democracy. There are clearly many better and faster ways to build infrastructure without endless JRs.
November 25, 2025 at 8:43 PM
It's 20 people versus the biggest infrastructure project in the country. Yes, I'm comfortable with that.
Other parts of the world manage to get things built while maintaning democracy. There are clearly many better and faster ways to build infrastructure without endless JRs.
Other parts of the world manage to get things built while maintaning democracy. There are clearly many better and faster ways to build infrastructure without endless JRs.
Or perhaps a legal system so complex that all those officials, consultants and planners can't manage to meet every single box ticking requirement.
Either way, claims that "this is democracy" are undermined by it being clear the vast majority of people just want to get on with projects like this.
Either way, claims that "this is democracy" are undermined by it being clear the vast majority of people just want to get on with projects like this.
November 25, 2025 at 8:25 PM
Or perhaps a legal system so complex that all those officials, consultants and planners can't manage to meet every single box ticking requirement.
Either way, claims that "this is democracy" are undermined by it being clear the vast majority of people just want to get on with projects like this.
Either way, claims that "this is democracy" are undermined by it being clear the vast majority of people just want to get on with projects like this.
Can't rely on hope any more. Those grown-ups have a long track record of taking forever to reach decisions and rescinding major projects completely, putting them back to square one.
The government should pass legislation saying the Metro project as passed through planning is legal & not reviewable.
The government should pass legislation saying the Metro project as passed through planning is legal & not reviewable.
November 25, 2025 at 5:00 PM
Can't rely on hope any more. Those grown-ups have a long track record of taking forever to reach decisions and rescinding major projects completely, putting them back to square one.
The government should pass legislation saying the Metro project as passed through planning is legal & not reviewable.
The government should pass legislation saying the Metro project as passed through planning is legal & not reviewable.
Whatever the benefits of these reviews, it's not about democracy. There is a huge democratic mandate for this project.
Every system has tradeoffs. If there's a technical error in the planning process, so be it. It's been debated enough.
Time to actually get things done.
Every system has tradeoffs. If there's a technical error in the planning process, so be it. It's been debated enough.
Time to actually get things done.
November 25, 2025 at 4:58 PM
Whatever the benefits of these reviews, it's not about democracy. There is a huge democratic mandate for this project.
Every system has tradeoffs. If there's a technical error in the planning process, so be it. It's been debated enough.
Time to actually get things done.
Every system has tradeoffs. If there's a technical error in the planning process, so be it. It's been debated enough.
Time to actually get things done.
Supporters of Ireland's planning system say it is wonderfully democratic. But here is a major project supported by repeated democratically-elected governments and put through a rigorous planning process (including plenty of public input) being stopped by 20 people. That's not democracy. It's chaos.
Dublin’s €10 billion MetroLink to face legal challenge from group of 20 Ranelagh residents
Judicial review could delay planned 18.8km line running from Swords to Dublin Airport and through city centre
www.irishtimes.com
November 25, 2025 at 3:56 PM
Supporters of Ireland's planning system say it is wonderfully democratic. But here is a major project supported by repeated democratically-elected governments and put through a rigorous planning process (including plenty of public input) being stopped by 20 people. That's not democracy. It's chaos.