Joseph Cotterill
@jsphctrl.ft.com
Emerging Markets correspondent at the Financial Times.
Let me just say that the reason ‘local frontier’ is the hot new thing in EM is not because investors think more EM local currency yields are about to converge to DM. on.ft.com/3WL6k1g
The great inversion on emerging markets
Market and economic trends are challenging the idea that EM bonds should trade at a discount to developed economy debt
on.ft.com
November 11, 2025 at 9:14 AM
Let me just say that the reason ‘local frontier’ is the hot new thing in EM is not because investors think more EM local currency yields are about to converge to DM. on.ft.com/3WL6k1g
How does the IMF deal with the fallout of debt that was hidden on its watch? When it comes to Senegal, not so well so far: www.ft.com/content/84f9...
Senegal’s foreign bonds plunge as government rules out restructuring
West African nation has become a test of IMF’s ability to deal with hidden debt and secure relief from creditors to support bailouts
www.ft.com
November 10, 2025 at 4:01 PM
How does the IMF deal with the fallout of debt that was hidden on its watch? When it comes to Senegal, not so well so far: www.ft.com/content/84f9...
Ghost of Yōtei photo mode: like Tsushima, it’s good
November 9, 2025 at 1:44 PM
Ghost of Yōtei photo mode: like Tsushima, it’s good
Reposted by Joseph Cotterill
Uzbekistan to invest on average more than 10% of GDP in US every year over next decade (wink emoji, wink emoji, wink emoji)
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Trump Says Uzbekistan to Invest More Than $100 Billion in US
Uzbekistan will invest more than $100 billion in the US over the next decade, President Donald Trump said.
www.bloomberg.com
November 7, 2025 at 9:05 AM
Uzbekistan to invest on average more than 10% of GDP in US every year over next decade (wink emoji, wink emoji, wink emoji)
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted by Joseph Cotterill
The AI build-out is truly staggering.
Taiwanese exports of information & communication products (basically, semiconductors from TSMC) have risen from $10-11bn per month to $27bn in the space of a year. That's over $300bn annualised and roughly a fifth of total US equipment investment.
Taiwanese exports of information & communication products (basically, semiconductors from TSMC) have risen from $10-11bn per month to $27bn in the space of a year. That's over $300bn annualised and roughly a fifth of total US equipment investment.
November 7, 2025 at 8:37 AM
The AI build-out is truly staggering.
Taiwanese exports of information & communication products (basically, semiconductors from TSMC) have risen from $10-11bn per month to $27bn in the space of a year. That's over $300bn annualised and roughly a fifth of total US equipment investment.
Taiwanese exports of information & communication products (basically, semiconductors from TSMC) have risen from $10-11bn per month to $27bn in the space of a year. That's over $300bn annualised and roughly a fifth of total US equipment investment.
I go on about this but if you ask people if spreads might have to widen a bit on all the bonds Saudi Arabia is issuing because of things like this, they look at you like you’re the one who’s nuts ig.ft.com/saudi-neom-l...
End of The Line: how Saudi Arabia’s Neom dream unravelled
Mohammed bin Salman’s utopian city was undone by the laws of physics and finance
ig.ft.com
November 6, 2025 at 10:04 AM
I go on about this but if you ask people if spreads might have to widen a bit on all the bonds Saudi Arabia is issuing because of things like this, they look at you like you’re the one who’s nuts ig.ft.com/saudi-neom-l...
Milei rules out not just floating the Argentine peso, but also any change to the peso’s trading band and its 1% crawl. This is not what some bondholders have thought (they reckon at least a faster crawl) nor what offshore forwards in the currency have been pricing… on.ft.com/4qLuOoO
Milei defies calls to float Argentine peso freely
Libertarian president vows to double down on transformation of country’s economy
on.ft.com
November 6, 2025 at 8:22 AM
Milei rules out not just floating the Argentine peso, but also any change to the peso’s trading band and its 1% crawl. This is not what some bondholders have thought (they reckon at least a faster crawl) nor what offshore forwards in the currency have been pricing… on.ft.com/4qLuOoO
Something that will be interesting to watch over the next year: the political standing of Jensen Huang in an administration apparently quite split over China hawkishness. on.ft.com/43gkTNV
Nvidia’s Jensen Huang says China ‘will win’ AI race with US
CEO criticises western ‘cynicism’ while Beijing loosens regulations and cuts energy costs for data centres
on.ft.com
November 5, 2025 at 10:09 PM
Something that will be interesting to watch over the next year: the political standing of Jensen Huang in an administration apparently quite split over China hawkishness. on.ft.com/43gkTNV
On the other hand, Mandela’s old house is in Orlando, and you can even drive there from Johannesburg.
(It’s in Soweto.)
(It’s in Soweto.)
Trump: "For generations Miami has been a haven for those fleeing communist tyranny in South Africa. I mean, if you take a look at what's going on in parts of South Africa. Look at South Africa, what's going on. Look at South America, what's going on. You know, we have a G20 meeting in South Africa."
November 5, 2025 at 9:02 PM
On the other hand, Mandela’s old house is in Orlando, and you can even drive there from Johannesburg.
(It’s in Soweto.)
(It’s in Soweto.)
Reposted by Joseph Cotterill
The news that fans of the late Zambian president Edgar Lungu are singing David Baddiel/Frank Skinner's "Three Lions" because they want his body to come home from South Africa to Zambia is the funniest story I've read today: www.wsj.com/world/africa...
Why a Song for Sad English Soccer Fans Is at the Center of a Fight Gripping Africa
Supporters of a deceased Zambian president have appropriated “Three Lions” in their campaign to bring his body home.
www.wsj.com
November 5, 2025 at 2:01 PM
The news that fans of the late Zambian president Edgar Lungu are singing David Baddiel/Frank Skinner's "Three Lions" because they want his body to come home from South Africa to Zambia is the funniest story I've read today: www.wsj.com/world/africa...
Joshua Cotterill. They were *this* close to greatness.
Apart from anything else, "Abigail Spanberger" is a great name. If you're lucky enough to have a surname that's a dactyl and you don't give your children a first name that's also a dactyl you're wasting everybody's time.
Hats off in particular to Mr & Mrs Roosevelt for coming up with "Franklin D".
Hats off in particular to Mr & Mrs Roosevelt for coming up with "Franklin D".
November 5, 2025 at 4:34 PM
Joshua Cotterill. They were *this* close to greatness.
In other frontier sovereign debt news... Republic of Congo issued its first eurobond since 2007. Actually an off-market placement to investors with a yield of 13.7% - which I think may be an African eurobond record at the point of issuance. Coupon of 9.875%. www.finances.gouv.cg/sites/defaul...
www.finances.gouv.cg
November 5, 2025 at 3:45 PM
In other frontier sovereign debt news... Republic of Congo issued its first eurobond since 2007. Actually an off-market placement to investors with a yield of 13.7% - which I think may be an African eurobond record at the point of issuance. Coupon of 9.875%. www.finances.gouv.cg/sites/defaul...
The Lao People's Democratic Republic (the CCC+ rated, heavily indebted to China, ‘battery of southeast Asia’) is in the market to sell a eurobond today, so we appear to be at that point in the cycle.
November 4, 2025 at 10:48 AM
The Lao People's Democratic Republic (the CCC+ rated, heavily indebted to China, ‘battery of southeast Asia’) is in the market to sell a eurobond today, so we appear to be at that point in the cycle.
African markets have done quite well this year. On the other hand, add up the dollar market value of the Johannesburg all-share (about $1.27trn) and you won't get change from one Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. www.ft.com/content/c627...
Africa takes lead in emerging market rally as ‘real’ assets attract investors
Record metals prices, a weak dollar and painful reforms are paying off for the continent’s markets
www.ft.com
November 3, 2025 at 1:42 PM
African markets have done quite well this year. On the other hand, add up the dollar market value of the Johannesburg all-share (about $1.27trn) and you won't get change from one Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. www.ft.com/content/c627...
On the other hand, Oracle five-year CDS hit 80bps today. Versus 40bps in June (and 120bps in 2022). Meanwhile Saudi CDS (just to take an au courant sovereign 'can markets keep absorbing this paper at that spread?' example) is about 60bps. www.ft.com/content/82f6...
Credit market hit with $200bn ‘flood’ of AI-related issuance
Jumbo debt sales to fund huge artificial intelligence capex threaten to store up new risks for investors
www.ft.com
October 31, 2025 at 4:39 PM
On the other hand, Oracle five-year CDS hit 80bps today. Versus 40bps in June (and 120bps in 2022). Meanwhile Saudi CDS (just to take an au courant sovereign 'can markets keep absorbing this paper at that spread?' example) is about 60bps. www.ft.com/content/82f6...
Until a trio of listings in recent weeks London's stock market “this year had trailed the Angolan stock exchange in the value of capital raised” (about $210mn, versus $240mn raised by a bank in Angola's biggest IPO so far). www.ft.com/content/bf30...
Princes London IPO meets lukewarm reception from investors
Business minister hails food group’s listing as sign of stock market revival
www.ft.com
October 31, 2025 at 10:22 AM
Until a trio of listings in recent weeks London's stock market “this year had trailed the Angolan stock exchange in the value of capital raised” (about $210mn, versus $240mn raised by a bank in Angola's biggest IPO so far). www.ft.com/content/bf30...
How Russian intervention in the 'coup belt' went: “Western officials have grown increasingly worried that al Qaeda, the stronger of the two Islamist groups in West Africa, might actually win control of either Burkina Faso or Mali.” www.wsj.com/world/africa...
Al Qaeda Is on the Brink of Taking Over a Country
If the jihadists succeed in taking Mali, it would become the first country run by the group. The U.S. has warned its citizens to leave the West African nation immediately.
www.wsj.com
October 30, 2025 at 5:26 PM
How Russian intervention in the 'coup belt' went: “Western officials have grown increasingly worried that al Qaeda, the stronger of the two Islamist groups in West Africa, might actually win control of either Burkina Faso or Mali.” www.wsj.com/world/africa...
There are no DM fiscal lessons, as 'restructure your debt five years ago' is not hugely applicable, and no EM macro lessons, as Argentina is ultimately a bit like one of those exam dreams where you forgot to float your currency twenty years ago.
This "teach the world" part drives me crazy, especially as applied to most countries in the North Atlantic basin, East Asia, SE Asia and India. Most of these places have a diversified export mix, mostly LC debt, lowish inflation & passhtru etc.
www.economist.com/leaders/2025...
www.economist.com/leaders/2025...
Javier Milei’s chance to transform Argentina and teach the world
Lessons in public finance from the original sinner
www.economist.com
October 30, 2025 at 5:12 PM
There are no DM fiscal lessons, as 'restructure your debt five years ago' is not hugely applicable, and no EM macro lessons, as Argentina is ultimately a bit like one of those exam dreams where you forgot to float your currency twenty years ago.
Fantasy FX floating, a game being played by some Argentina dollar bondholders and now Barry Eichengreen. www.ft.com/content/72e1...
Now is the time for Argentina to float the peso
Staying the current monetary course implies more chaos, not less
www.ft.com
October 30, 2025 at 3:51 PM
Fantasy FX floating, a game being played by some Argentina dollar bondholders and now Barry Eichengreen. www.ft.com/content/72e1...
I think I'm the one person who lived in Joburg in the last decade who paid those e-tolls.
Johannesburg: "Last year, the government shut off the [highway] tolls permanently. The South African National Roads Agency reported there was $1.67 billion in unpaid e-toll debt that it has written off." www.wsj.com/lifestyle/tr...
Welcome to Johannesburg. This Is What It Looks Like When a City Gives Up.
Tourists are dumbfounded by the many signs of apathy in the South African city.
www.wsj.com
October 29, 2025 at 1:48 PM
I think I'm the one person who lived in Joburg in the last decade who paid those e-tolls.
Stealing ‘Fighting Miscegenates‘ for naming my next Chaos Space Marines army with Fabius Bile.
None of these people believe that Richard Ayoade, Cole Palmer, Zadie Smith and David Olusoga are going to form a squadron of “The Fighting Miscegenates” and start a war against their own parents.
October 29, 2025 at 10:23 AM
Stealing ‘Fighting Miscegenates‘ for naming my next Chaos Space Marines army with Fabius Bile.
The latest performance art piece in the British Council's collection, a challenging work exploring themes of globalisation through creative use of the UK subsidy control regime to turn emerging market demand for English proficiency into a financial crisis
www.ft.com/content/af61...
www.ft.com/content/af61...
British Council ‘selling everything it can’ to survive
Cultural body plans more job cuts, sale of assets and closure in 35 countries to stave off ‘financial peril’
www.ft.com
October 28, 2025 at 5:33 PM
The latest performance art piece in the British Council's collection, a challenging work exploring themes of globalisation through creative use of the UK subsidy control regime to turn emerging market demand for English proficiency into a financial crisis
www.ft.com/content/af61...
www.ft.com/content/af61...
Venezuela's defaulted dollar bond prices are up about 25% in the past month. (To... 30 cents on the dollar)
October 28, 2025 at 10:52 AM
Venezuela's defaulted dollar bond prices are up about 25% in the past month. (To... 30 cents on the dollar)
In all the Argentina craziness I missed that Suriname is buying back the bond which came out of its 2023 restructuring (and has a near 8% coupon). AFAIK it is the first of the recent crop of post-restructuring countries (Zambia, Ghana, et al) to do this... www.prnewswire.com/news-release...
THE REPUBLIC OF SURINAME ANNOUNCES AN INVITATION FOR OFFERS TO TENDER FOR CASH ITS 7.95% CASH/PIK SECURITIES DUE 2033
/PRNewswire/ -- The Republic of Suriname (the "Republic" or "Suriname"), announced today the commencement of an invitation for each holder to submit offers...
www.prnewswire.com
October 27, 2025 at 4:16 PM
In all the Argentina craziness I missed that Suriname is buying back the bond which came out of its 2023 restructuring (and has a near 8% coupon). AFAIK it is the first of the recent crop of post-restructuring countries (Zambia, Ghana, et al) to do this... www.prnewswire.com/news-release...
I looked so hard at the jump in Argentina's US dollar bonds today post-Milei mid-term landslide that my contact lenses popped out. True story
October 27, 2025 at 12:39 PM
I looked so hard at the jump in Argentina's US dollar bonds today post-Milei mid-term landslide that my contact lenses popped out. True story