Helmi Räisänen
@helmiraisanen.bsky.social
Postdoctoral Fellow @FIIA; Visiting Researcher @Uni Helsinki | A professional pessimist into all things preparedness, chronic socio-ecological crises, environmental security, supply chain security, critical raw materials, pandemics, simulation exercises..
Thrilled to share I’ll get paid for two years to deepen my existential dread about climate collapse—thanks to the Nessling Foundation! Starting end of 2026 at @bios.fi, I’ll explore how an AMOC collapse could reshape Finland’s society, with a focus on food production.
Results from our general grant call are out: 29 projects, 2,84 million euros for sustainability transformation. Here's the story: nessling.fi/en/funded-pr...
The Nessling Foundation has granted €2.84 million in funding for 29 sustainability transformation projects
The overarching theme of the Nessling Foundation’s general call is sustainability transformation. The themes that stand out among this year’s funded projects shed light on how the research community i...
nessling.fi
November 17, 2025 at 10:55 AM
Thrilled to share I’ll get paid for two years to deepen my existential dread about climate collapse—thanks to the Nessling Foundation! Starting end of 2026 at @bios.fi, I’ll explore how an AMOC collapse could reshape Finland’s society, with a focus on food production.
Reposted by Helmi Räisänen
📝New FIIA Briefing Paper
Environment-related risks can trigger sudden, cascading effects across sectors and borders. @ezhakala.bsky.social and @helmiraisanen.bsky.social explore environment-related risks as part of comprehensive security and discuss ways to prepare for them.
fiia.fi/en/publicati...
Environment-related risks can trigger sudden, cascading effects across sectors and borders. @ezhakala.bsky.social and @helmiraisanen.bsky.social explore environment-related risks as part of comprehensive security and discuss ways to prepare for them.
fiia.fi/en/publicati...
November 6, 2025 at 7:16 AM
📝New FIIA Briefing Paper
Environment-related risks can trigger sudden, cascading effects across sectors and borders. @ezhakala.bsky.social and @helmiraisanen.bsky.social explore environment-related risks as part of comprehensive security and discuss ways to prepare for them.
fiia.fi/en/publicati...
Environment-related risks can trigger sudden, cascading effects across sectors and borders. @ezhakala.bsky.social and @helmiraisanen.bsky.social explore environment-related risks as part of comprehensive security and discuss ways to prepare for them.
fiia.fi/en/publicati...
Reposted by Helmi Räisänen
Great, intense conference during the Nordic Tipping Week in Helsinki and Rovaniemi 🇫🇮 last week.
Climate scientists, fisheries experts, social researchers, and policy makers came together to discuss what an #AMOC weakening or collapse could mean for the Nordic region and the rest of the world.
Climate scientists, fisheries experts, social researchers, and policy makers came together to discuss what an #AMOC weakening or collapse could mean for the Nordic region and the rest of the world.
October 27, 2025 at 10:11 AM
Great, intense conference during the Nordic Tipping Week in Helsinki and Rovaniemi 🇫🇮 last week.
Climate scientists, fisheries experts, social researchers, and policy makers came together to discuss what an #AMOC weakening or collapse could mean for the Nordic region and the rest of the world.
Climate scientists, fisheries experts, social researchers, and policy makers came together to discuss what an #AMOC weakening or collapse could mean for the Nordic region and the rest of the world.
Hyvää alkanutta työviikkoa. Kaikki on loistavasti.
"Two iconic corals that have flourished across Florida’s 560-kilometre-long reef for more than 10,000 years are now ‘functionally extinct’ following the record-breaking 2023 heatwave." www.nature.com/articles/d41...
"Two iconic corals that have flourished across Florida’s 560-kilometre-long reef for more than 10,000 years are now ‘functionally extinct’ following the record-breaking 2023 heatwave." www.nature.com/articles/d41...
These iconic corals are nearly extinct due to heatwaves: can they be saved?
Florida’s primary reef-building corals have been declared ‘functionally extinct’ — prompting a shift in conservation strategies.
www.nature.com
October 27, 2025 at 4:25 AM
Hyvää alkanutta työviikkoa. Kaikki on loistavasti.
"Two iconic corals that have flourished across Florida’s 560-kilometre-long reef for more than 10,000 years are now ‘functionally extinct’ following the record-breaking 2023 heatwave." www.nature.com/articles/d41...
"Two iconic corals that have flourished across Florida’s 560-kilometre-long reef for more than 10,000 years are now ‘functionally extinct’ following the record-breaking 2023 heatwave." www.nature.com/articles/d41...
Just attended Nordic Tipping Week to discuss the latest science on the AMOC tipping point and its societal impacts. Now I’m feeling some serious post-conference anguish. Being back in a world pretending everything’s normal is exhausting. The cognitive dissonance is heavy.
October 24, 2025 at 5:32 AM
Just attended Nordic Tipping Week to discuss the latest science on the AMOC tipping point and its societal impacts. Now I’m feeling some serious post-conference anguish. Being back in a world pretending everything’s normal is exhausting. The cognitive dissonance is heavy.
Reposted by Helmi Räisänen
New study by Falkena et al. shows that most climate models
don’t capture the established key mechanism that can destabilize the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Those models that get it predict abrupt subpolar gyre changes in coming decades 😳.
@swinda.bsky.social
esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...
don’t capture the established key mechanism that can destabilize the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Those models that get it predict abrupt subpolar gyre changes in coming decades 😳.
@swinda.bsky.social
esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...
October 23, 2025 at 10:28 AM
New study by Falkena et al. shows that most climate models
don’t capture the established key mechanism that can destabilize the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Those models that get it predict abrupt subpolar gyre changes in coming decades 😳.
@swinda.bsky.social
esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...
don’t capture the established key mechanism that can destabilize the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Those models that get it predict abrupt subpolar gyre changes in coming decades 😳.
@swinda.bsky.social
esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...
Reposted by Helmi Räisänen
“‘We must stop expecting carbon offsetting to work at scale,’ said Stephen Lezak, a researcher at the University of Oxford’s Smith School. ‘We have assessed 25 years of evidence and almost everything up until this point has failed.’” www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Carbon offsets fail to cut global heating due to ‘intractable’ systemic problems, study says
Analysis of 25 years of evidence shows most schemes are poor quality and fail to lower emissions
www.theguardian.com
October 8, 2025 at 3:45 PM
“‘We must stop expecting carbon offsetting to work at scale,’ said Stephen Lezak, a researcher at the University of Oxford’s Smith School. ‘We have assessed 25 years of evidence and almost everything up until this point has failed.’” www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Nearly 40% of global transboundart river basins could face potential conflicts driven by water scarcity in 2041–2050, with hotspots in Africa, southern and central Asia, the Middle East, and North America
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Transboundary conflict from surface water scarcity under climate change - Nature Communications
Transboundary river basins (TRBs) are at an increasing risk of water scarcity-induced conflicts. Nearly 40% of global TRBs could face such conflicts by 2050, but measures such as intra-basin cooperation could reduce this proportion to less than 10%.
www.nature.com
October 6, 2025 at 1:08 PM
Nearly 40% of global transboundart river basins could face potential conflicts driven by water scarcity in 2041–2050, with hotspots in Africa, southern and central Asia, the Middle East, and North America
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by Helmi Räisänen
Published today: our new paper showing a 44-year trend of increasing global wildfire disasters (fatalities and economic losses) due to climate change-induced extreme weather. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Climate-linked escalation of societally disastrous wildfires
Climate change and land mismanagement are creating increasingly fire-prone built and natural environments. However, despite worsening fire seasons, evidence is lacking globally for trends in socially ...
www.science.org
October 2, 2025 at 6:28 PM
Published today: our new paper showing a 44-year trend of increasing global wildfire disasters (fatalities and economic losses) due to climate change-induced extreme weather. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Geologic CO₂ storage capacity is limited (1,460 Gt). Without steep near-term emission cuts, we risk exhausting capacity before 2200. Even at max use, storage only lowers warming by 0.7 °C—making it a finite, intergenerational resource for climate strategy. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
A prudent planetary limit for geologic carbon storage - Nature
A risk-based, spatially explicit analysis of carbon storage in sedimentary basins establishes a prudent planetary limit of around 1,460 Gt of geological carbon storage, which requires making explicit decisions on priorities for storage use.
www.nature.com
September 29, 2025 at 5:12 AM
Geologic CO₂ storage capacity is limited (1,460 Gt). Without steep near-term emission cuts, we risk exhausting capacity before 2200. Even at max use, storage only lowers warming by 0.7 °C—making it a finite, intergenerational resource for climate strategy. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
New study finds that warmer oceans could cut populations of Prochlorococcus — the tiny phytoplankton that produce ~20% of Earth’s oxygen and form the base of many marine food webs — by up to 50% in tropical seas by 2100 if surface waters keep rising above ~28 °C. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Future ocean warming may cause large reductions in Prochlorococcus biomass and productivity - Nature Microbiology
Decade-long field measurements and modelling show that projected ocean temperatures could restrict cell division rates of an important marine cyanobacterium.
www.nature.com
September 12, 2025 at 5:07 AM
New study finds that warmer oceans could cut populations of Prochlorococcus — the tiny phytoplankton that produce ~20% of Earth’s oxygen and form the base of many marine food webs — by up to 50% in tropical seas by 2100 if surface waters keep rising above ~28 °C. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reading this makes me physically nauseous: Collapse of the AMOC is no longer a “low-likelihood” event - the tipping point that makes an Amoc shutdown inevitable is likely to be passed within a few decades www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Collapse of critical Atlantic current is no longer low-likelihood, study finds
Scientists say ‘shocking’ discovery shows rapid cuts in carbon emissions are needed to avoid catastrophic fallout
www.theguardian.com
August 29, 2025 at 12:03 PM
Reading this makes me physically nauseous: Collapse of the AMOC is no longer a “low-likelihood” event - the tipping point that makes an Amoc shutdown inevitable is likely to be passed within a few decades www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Reposted by Helmi Räisänen
Yleisön ilmastonmuutoshuolen taso Euroopan maissa. Etelä-Eurooppa kärjessä, pohjoismaat häntäpäässä.
Silti Suomessakin elää yhä myytti siitä, että meillä ollaan ilmastotietoisia, muualla pöljäillään sokeasti menemään.
Silti Suomessakin elää yhä myytti siitä, että meillä ollaan ilmastotietoisia, muualla pöljäillään sokeasti menemään.
August 29, 2025 at 8:04 AM
Yleisön ilmastonmuutoshuolen taso Euroopan maissa. Etelä-Eurooppa kärjessä, pohjoismaat häntäpäässä.
Silti Suomessakin elää yhä myytti siitä, että meillä ollaan ilmastotietoisia, muualla pöljäillään sokeasti menemään.
Silti Suomessakin elää yhä myytti siitä, että meillä ollaan ilmastotietoisia, muualla pöljäillään sokeasti menemään.
Reposted by Helmi Räisänen
Golf courses are quite the comparative metric, on several levels...
Thank you @joshgabbatiss.bsky.social for the reminder that golf courses should be forcibly seized by the government and converted to solar farms
interactive.carbonbrief.org/factcheck/so...
interactive.carbonbrief.org/factcheck/so...
August 29, 2025 at 8:31 AM
Golf courses are quite the comparative metric, on several levels...
Reposted by Helmi Räisänen
"already outpacing efforts to adapt"
One of the strongest, clearest increases in likelihood & intensity, attributable to climate change, I've seen in a complex index like fire weather - the more intense & frequent events in Greece & Türkiye are already outpacing efforts to adapt.
www.worldweatherattribution.org/weather-cond...
www.worldweatherattribution.org/weather-cond...
August 28, 2025 at 12:10 PM
"already outpacing efforts to adapt"
New research shows climate change has already reshaped biodiversity: tropical bird populations declined by 25–38% (1950–2020) due to heat extremes. Even in ‘undisturbed’ habitats, human-driven warming is driving losses www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Large reductions in tropical bird abundance attributable to heat extreme intensification - Nature Ecology & Evolution
Climate change poses a growing threat to biodiversity, but disentangling its overall impact from other anthropogenic stressors is challenging. Here the authors use a data-driven climate attribution fr...
www.nature.com
August 28, 2025 at 3:37 AM
New research shows climate change has already reshaped biodiversity: tropical bird populations declined by 25–38% (1950–2020) due to heat extremes. Even in ‘undisturbed’ habitats, human-driven warming is driving losses www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Niille, joiden mielestä helleaallot on kivoja:
Repeated heatwaves can age you as much as smoking or drinking www.nature.com/articles/d41...
Repeated heatwaves can age you as much as smoking or drinking www.nature.com/articles/d41...
Repeated heatwaves can age you as much as smoking or drinking
Long-term study suggests that the more heatwaves people are exposed to, the more it accelerates body ageing.
www.nature.com
August 27, 2025 at 4:47 AM
Niille, joiden mielestä helleaallot on kivoja:
Repeated heatwaves can age you as much as smoking or drinking www.nature.com/articles/d41...
Repeated heatwaves can age you as much as smoking or drinking www.nature.com/articles/d41...
Hey, have you remembered to think about multi-metre sea level rise today?
"+1.5 °C is too high and that even current climate forcing (+1.2 °C), if sustained, is likely to generate several metres of sea-level rise over the coming centuries" www.nature.com/articles/s43...
"+1.5 °C is too high and that even current climate forcing (+1.2 °C), if sustained, is likely to generate several metres of sea-level rise over the coming centuries" www.nature.com/articles/s43...
Warming of +1.5 °C is too high for polar ice sheets - Communications Earth & Environment
Warming of +1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels is too high for the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and even the current climate forcing of +1.2 °C is likely to lead to several meters of sea-level ...
www.nature.com
August 25, 2025 at 8:11 AM
Hey, have you remembered to think about multi-metre sea level rise today?
"+1.5 °C is too high and that even current climate forcing (+1.2 °C), if sustained, is likely to generate several metres of sea-level rise over the coming centuries" www.nature.com/articles/s43...
"+1.5 °C is too high and that even current climate forcing (+1.2 °C), if sustained, is likely to generate several metres of sea-level rise over the coming centuries" www.nature.com/articles/s43...
Reposted by Helmi Räisänen
Havaitsimme, että aiemmat arviot sosiaaliturvamuutosten yhteisvaikutuksista ovat liioitelleet toimeentulotuen suojaavaa vaikutusta.
Tarkennetulla mallilla toimeentulotuen saajamäärän lisäys on aiempia arvioita pienempi -> vaikutukset pienituloisuuteen ovat suurempia.
1/
Tarkennetulla mallilla toimeentulotuen saajamäärän lisäys on aiempia arvioita pienempi -> vaikutukset pienituloisuuteen ovat suurempia.
1/
THL:n tarkentama laskentamalli muuttaa kuvaa sosiaaliturvaleikkausten vaikutuksista
thl.fi
August 25, 2025 at 5:47 AM
Havaitsimme, että aiemmat arviot sosiaaliturvamuutosten yhteisvaikutuksista ovat liioitelleet toimeentulotuen suojaavaa vaikutusta.
Tarkennetulla mallilla toimeentulotuen saajamäärän lisäys on aiempia arvioita pienempi -> vaikutukset pienituloisuuteen ovat suurempia.
1/
Tarkennetulla mallilla toimeentulotuen saajamäärän lisäys on aiempia arvioita pienempi -> vaikutukset pienituloisuuteen ovat suurempia.
1/
Reposted by Helmi Räisänen
Emerging evidence of abrupt changes in the Antarctic environment
Abram+
doi.org/10.1038/s415...
"The only assured way of reducing the risk of abrupt changes in the Antarctic environment is to make rapid and deep CO2 emission reductions this decade"
Abram+
doi.org/10.1038/s415...
"The only assured way of reducing the risk of abrupt changes in the Antarctic environment is to make rapid and deep CO2 emission reductions this decade"
August 22, 2025 at 7:12 AM
Emerging evidence of abrupt changes in the Antarctic environment
Abram+
doi.org/10.1038/s415...
"The only assured way of reducing the risk of abrupt changes in the Antarctic environment is to make rapid and deep CO2 emission reductions this decade"
Abram+
doi.org/10.1038/s415...
"The only assured way of reducing the risk of abrupt changes in the Antarctic environment is to make rapid and deep CO2 emission reductions this decade"
Reposted by Helmi Räisänen
This SINGLE WEEK of Spanish wildfire emissions surpassed ANNUAL total carbon emissions of each of the 100 lowest emitting countries in the world‼️
Carbon sinks are turning into sources
We can’t expect nature to clean up our mess.
Carbon sinks are turning into sources
We can’t expect nature to clean up our mess.
August 20, 2025 at 8:55 AM
This SINGLE WEEK of Spanish wildfire emissions surpassed ANNUAL total carbon emissions of each of the 100 lowest emitting countries in the world‼️
Carbon sinks are turning into sources
We can’t expect nature to clean up our mess.
Carbon sinks are turning into sources
We can’t expect nature to clean up our mess.
Our new study examines Finland’s green transition & critical raw material governance via socio-technical imaginaries. National economic gains are prioritised, planetary boundaries ignored–continuing Finland’s long history of heavy resource use despite its ‘sustainability leader’ image.
Supply chain imaginaries of the green transition: Resource governance in the Finnish battery cluster
The significance of several resource-intensive supply chains has been highlighted as societies around the world seek to decarbonize their emissions-in…
www.sciencedirect.com
August 15, 2025 at 8:05 AM
Our new study examines Finland’s green transition & critical raw material governance via socio-technical imaginaries. National economic gains are prioritised, planetary boundaries ignored–continuing Finland’s long history of heavy resource use despite its ‘sustainability leader’ image.
The global ocean is getting darker—threatening one of the most productive habitats on the planet. "The implications of ocean darkening for marine ecology and the ecosystem services provided by the surface oceans are currently unknown but likely to be severe."
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Darkening of the Global Ocean
The ocean is darkening, with less sunlight reaching deeper waters over the past 20 years. Analysing satellite data, we found that 21% of the global ocean has experienced reduced light penetration, wi...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
August 11, 2025 at 10:23 AM
The global ocean is getting darker—threatening one of the most productive habitats on the planet. "The implications of ocean darkening for marine ecology and the ecosystem services provided by the surface oceans are currently unknown but likely to be severe."
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
