David Firth
@firthstat.bsky.social
Research in #statistics, University of Warwick. https://warwick.ac.uk/dfirth
Also @firthstat@fediscience.org (Mastodon)
Current main interest is compositional data analysis. Programming in #rstats
Also @firthstat@fediscience.org (Mastodon)
Current main interest is compositional data analysis. Programming in #rstats
Reposted by David Firth
The BBC is apologising for its Panorama edit. It shouldn’t. First, the narrative is true: Donald Trump *did* incite the Capitol riot. Second, the apology won’t appease those attacking it. So why not at least stand for something?
Wrote this on it earlier this week:
inews.co.uk/news/world/b...
Wrote this on it earlier this week:
inews.co.uk/news/world/b...
The BBC was right about the Capitol riots. In a sane world, Trump would be in jail
The US President faced impeachment over the violence, and in a world where Republicans had more courage, he would have been found guilty
inews.co.uk
November 9, 2025 at 7:05 AM
The BBC is apologising for its Panorama edit. It shouldn’t. First, the narrative is true: Donald Trump *did* incite the Capitol riot. Second, the apology won’t appease those attacking it. So why not at least stand for something?
Wrote this on it earlier this week:
inews.co.uk/news/world/b...
Wrote this on it earlier this week:
inews.co.uk/news/world/b...
Reposted by David Firth
"Getting Franklin’s story right is crucial, because she has become a role model for women going into science. She was up against not just the routine sexism of the day, but also more subtle forms embedded in science — some of which are still present today."
#R4Today
#R4Today
If I see one more stupid Rosalind Franklin take I'm going to lose my mind. Thank god for @matthewcobb.bsky.social and @nccomfort.bsky.social. www.nature.com/articles/d41...
What Rosalind Franklin truly contributed to the discovery of DNA’s structure
Franklin was no victim in how the DNA double helix was solved. An overlooked letter and an unpublished news article, both written in 1953, reveal that she was an equal player.
www.nature.com
November 8, 2025 at 7:33 AM
"Getting Franklin’s story right is crucial, because she has become a role model for women going into science. She was up against not just the routine sexism of the day, but also more subtle forms embedded in science — some of which are still present today."
#R4Today
#R4Today
Reposted by David Firth
"There is simply no sign of a fiscal catastrophe from the 'Boriswave'. Recent migrants are very likely to be employed, paying tax and seem to be contributing to British society..it will help, rather than hurt, Britain’s fiscal position."
Analysis by @lgilbert.co
ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...
Analysis by @lgilbert.co
ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...
Lower migration is bad news for the UK economy - UK in a changing Europe
Lauren Gilbert argues that migrants to the UK are net fiscal contributors, adding much more to the economy than they take out, and that the recent collapse in immigration will harm the UK's economic p...
ukandeu.ac.uk
November 6, 2025 at 4:00 PM
"There is simply no sign of a fiscal catastrophe from the 'Boriswave'. Recent migrants are very likely to be employed, paying tax and seem to be contributing to British society..it will help, rather than hurt, Britain’s fiscal position."
Analysis by @lgilbert.co
ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...
Analysis by @lgilbert.co
ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...
Reposted by David Firth
It's genuinely worth a quick check of the advanced moderation settings as there's plenty I'm sure people would like to tweak but aren't aware that they can.
If you aren't seeing skeets from some of your fave people, they might have been labeled "Rude" by bsky mods. Idk what they are thinking, I don't need a mommy to tell me who to be buddies with. Anyway, go into Settings > moderation > bluesky moderation (advanced) and turn Rude off.
November 6, 2025 at 8:01 AM
It's genuinely worth a quick check of the advanced moderation settings as there's plenty I'm sure people would like to tweak but aren't aware that they can.
Reposted by David Firth
Compulsory team teaching on every module is perhaps the biggest ever threat to the quality of teaching in UK universities.
It causes chaos on the ground for timetabling, ruins course coherence and turns lecturers into permanent supply teachers. It is pedagogically incoherent… 1/
It causes chaos on the ground for timetabling, ruins course coherence and turns lecturers into permanent supply teachers. It is pedagogically incoherent… 1/
November 6, 2025 at 6:57 AM
Compulsory team teaching on every module is perhaps the biggest ever threat to the quality of teaching in UK universities.
It causes chaos on the ground for timetabling, ruins course coherence and turns lecturers into permanent supply teachers. It is pedagogically incoherent… 1/
It causes chaos on the ground for timetabling, ruins course coherence and turns lecturers into permanent supply teachers. It is pedagogically incoherent… 1/
Reposted by David Firth
That paper that was reported as saying you should stop taking short walks vs fewer long ones has been bothering me and the excellent Kevin McConway has written up a fair and thorough explanation of why: www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-react...
tl;dr really hard to get causal out of observational
tl;dr really hard to get causal out of observational
expert reaction to study looking at steps in one long walk vs in multiple short walks, and cardiovascular health | Science Media Centre
www.sciencemediacentre.org
November 3, 2025 at 8:37 AM
That paper that was reported as saying you should stop taking short walks vs fewer long ones has been bothering me and the excellent Kevin McConway has written up a fair and thorough explanation of why: www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-react...
tl;dr really hard to get causal out of observational
tl;dr really hard to get causal out of observational
Reposted by David Firth
Index of Multiple Deprivation shows highly deprived areas are concentrated in the North of England
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
October 31, 2025 at 6:59 AM
Index of Multiple Deprivation shows highly deprived areas are concentrated in the North of England
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Reposted by David Firth
The generation that experienced WW2 knew how bad things could get. The horrors that they had directly experienced in Coventry, on Omaha, at Belsen, Bastogne, Dresden, Nanjing & Tokyo meant that they understood how dangerous THIS was. This is where all that started.
Dutch anti-Muslim populist Geert Wilders goes full Trump, claiming on X after he lost the election that there are reports of vote fraud. Also claimed the election authority was not neutral. Tearing down the pillars of Dutch democracy. nos.nl/l/2588722
Gemeenten wijzen aantijgingen Wilders over stemgesjoemel van de hand
Wilders stelt op sociale media dat het "berichten regent" van verdwenen of ongeldig verklaarde stemmen. Experts noemen het trumpiaans.
nos.nl
November 1, 2025 at 11:35 AM
The generation that experienced WW2 knew how bad things could get. The horrors that they had directly experienced in Coventry, on Omaha, at Belsen, Bastogne, Dresden, Nanjing & Tokyo meant that they understood how dangerous THIS was. This is where all that started.
Reposted by David Firth
If you're a member of the National Trust remember to vote for council members by midnight tonight.
Use the Quick Vote option.
Entryist pressure group Reform Trust is trying to seize control. Stop them
Voting is quick and easy if your membership card is at hand
secure.cesvotes.com/V3-3-0/nt25/...
Use the Quick Vote option.
Entryist pressure group Reform Trust is trying to seize control. Stop them
Voting is quick and easy if your membership card is at hand
secure.cesvotes.com/V3-3-0/nt25/...
Log In
Welcome to the National Trust 2025 voting website, hosted by independent voting service provider Civica Election Services.
secure.cesvotes.com
October 31, 2025 at 2:19 PM
If you're a member of the National Trust remember to vote for council members by midnight tonight.
Use the Quick Vote option.
Entryist pressure group Reform Trust is trying to seize control. Stop them
Voting is quick and easy if your membership card is at hand
secure.cesvotes.com/V3-3-0/nt25/...
Use the Quick Vote option.
Entryist pressure group Reform Trust is trying to seize control. Stop them
Voting is quick and easy if your membership card is at hand
secure.cesvotes.com/V3-3-0/nt25/...
Reposted by David Firth
👏 "There are over four million kids in child poverty in the UK and there are four and a half million people who can't get a dentist appointment."
"We spend 90% of the political capital and discourse and media focus discussing 37,000 people."
"We spend 90% of the political capital and discourse and media focus discussing 37,000 people."
October 31, 2025 at 3:05 PM
👏 "There are over four million kids in child poverty in the UK and there are four and a half million people who can't get a dentist appointment."
"We spend 90% of the political capital and discourse and media focus discussing 37,000 people."
"We spend 90% of the political capital and discourse and media focus discussing 37,000 people."
Reposted by David Firth
If you're a National Trust member, it's that time of year again: Midnight tonight is the deadline. It's a shame people have to keep doing this to keep a toehold on historical truth in this country, but here we are. Voting link: www.nationaltrust.org.uk/who-we-are/a...
![[Scene is the entrance cabin to a NATIONAL TRUST PROPERTY AND GARDENS]
1
NATIONAL TRUST EMPLOYEE [inside cabin]:
Hello there
2
[A young family - two parents two kids - have arrived at the front desk].
DAD:
Hi - do you have an activity trail, for the kids?
3
NT EMPLOYEE:
Of course – you’re just in time for the Autumn Gammon Trail!
4
MUM:
That sounds fun, doesn’t it kids?
5
NT EMPLOYEE [handing an activity sheet and pencils to the kids]:
Every autumn, the Reform Trust gammons flock back to the National Trust for the AGM. Just follow the trail round the grounds, and see how many you can spot!
6
NT EMPLOYEE [hearing something in the gardens]:
Listen - that's their call
[Calls emanating from the landscape]:
tut-tut
woke-woke
7
NT EMPLOYEE [showing the family an apparently empty fenced enclosure with some bushes in]:
They are extremely sensitive and fragile...
But you can bring them out of hiding if you put a little sign down mentioning slavery.
8
KIDS [pointing]:
There they are!
[Some little red faced PEOPLE wearing Barbour jackets and gilets emerge cautiously from the bushes. They are creeping towards a TINY SIGN in the middle of the enclosure].
[Little people noises]:
woke-woke
tut-tut
woke-woke
9
[Close-up of the TINY SIGN - we can read that it says]:
Slavery had a bit to do with building this massive house.
[Noises from the little people again as they inspect the tiny sign]:
tut-tut
woke-woke
10
MUM [pointing]:
What's that one doing there?
NT EMPLOYEE:
Oh, that's so sweet…
11
[We see that one of the people is sat on a rock, with a little laptop open on a tree stump, and they are furiously typing away].
NT EMPLOYEE:
I think he's writing a column for the Daily Telegraph…
12
[We see close up to the little person’s screen, it is a word document reading]:
Are National Trust scones secretly WOKE?
[ends]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:4m3we4apbjayclzcnhwe3pfp/bafkreib7lt736b6rmzinml5s7kxjdaapo2a36xp4d4lssypimx3taqicdm@jpeg)
October 31, 2025 at 9:02 AM
If you're a National Trust member, it's that time of year again: Midnight tonight is the deadline. It's a shame people have to keep doing this to keep a toehold on historical truth in this country, but here we are. Voting link: www.nationaltrust.org.uk/who-we-are/a...
Reposted by David Firth
This is absolutely fascinating: you can put your postcode in and see relative levels of deprivation (and the opposite) where you live in detail. I live where I grew up, so I could spend days doing this as I know the town so well. www.ft.com/content/9a1c... Huge congrats to @amyborrett.ft.com et al.
Interactive: explore England’s new deprivation map
Data analysis reveals ‘cheek by jowl’ inequalities in first study of country’s disadvantaged areas since pandemic
www.ft.com
October 31, 2025 at 7:21 AM
This is absolutely fascinating: you can put your postcode in and see relative levels of deprivation (and the opposite) where you live in detail. I live where I grew up, so I could spend days doing this as I know the town so well. www.ft.com/content/9a1c... Huge congrats to @amyborrett.ft.com et al.
Reposted by David Firth
Government has published one of those quiet but important documents that might get overlooked as it is not 'newsy'. The headline finding is that £1 of public R&D investment generates £8 in net economic benefits for the UK over the long term
www.gov.uk/government/p...
www.gov.uk/government/p...
The value of public R&D
www.gov.uk
October 30, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Government has published one of those quiet but important documents that might get overlooked as it is not 'newsy'. The headline finding is that £1 of public R&D investment generates £8 in net economic benefits for the UK over the long term
www.gov.uk/government/p...
www.gov.uk/government/p...
Still a great thread. On why we (UK) need more immigration, not less.
A word on immigration. Don't prejudge this, just listen to the data, and then consider what the solution is.
The UK has a falling birth rate. This means that - unless things change - each generation will be 25% smaller than the one before.
The UK has a falling birth rate. This means that - unless things change - each generation will be 25% smaller than the one before.
October 30, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Still a great thread. On why we (UK) need more immigration, not less.
English Indices of Deprivation 2025 (IoD25) and Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD25) are published today. This is an update in the series, following on from the 2019 #deprivation indices.
UK Government website:
www.gov.uk/government/s...
UK Government website:
www.gov.uk/government/s...
English indices of deprivation 2025
Statistics on relative deprivation in small areas in England. Further details are provided at the bottom of this page and in the FAQ document.
www.gov.uk
October 30, 2025 at 2:40 PM
English Indices of Deprivation 2025 (IoD25) and Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD25) are published today. This is an update in the series, following on from the 2019 #deprivation indices.
UK Government website:
www.gov.uk/government/s...
UK Government website:
www.gov.uk/government/s...
Reposted by David Firth
The ECHR protects all of us, from seeking justice for child sexual abuse and trafficking victims, to protecting us from gov surveillance and unfair domestic workplace practices.
Any suggestion we leave is a direct attack by the political class on our human rights.
www.amnesty.org.uk/blogs/campai...
Any suggestion we leave is a direct attack by the political class on our human rights.
www.amnesty.org.uk/blogs/campai...
October 29, 2025 at 7:18 PM
The ECHR protects all of us, from seeking justice for child sexual abuse and trafficking victims, to protecting us from gov surveillance and unfair domestic workplace practices.
Any suggestion we leave is a direct attack by the political class on our human rights.
www.amnesty.org.uk/blogs/campai...
Any suggestion we leave is a direct attack by the political class on our human rights.
www.amnesty.org.uk/blogs/campai...
Reposted by David Firth
1. Prison and Probation Service (and CJS generally) brought to its knees by cuts, subcontracting, & endless 'efficiency reforms'.
2. Bad consequences follow.
3. Outrage from those who brought the service to its knees.
2. Bad consequences follow.
3. Outrage from those who brought the service to its knees.
October 26, 2025 at 7:05 PM
1. Prison and Probation Service (and CJS generally) brought to its knees by cuts, subcontracting, & endless 'efficiency reforms'.
2. Bad consequences follow.
3. Outrage from those who brought the service to its knees.
2. Bad consequences follow.
3. Outrage from those who brought the service to its knees.
Reposted by David Firth
Went to a prayer service tonight at St. Mary of the Lake, where they have cardboard cutouts throughout the church representing parishioners afraid to come to Mass because of ICE.
October 25, 2025 at 1:57 AM
Went to a prayer service tonight at St. Mary of the Lake, where they have cardboard cutouts throughout the church representing parishioners afraid to come to Mass because of ICE.
Reposted by David Firth
October 24, 2025 at 6:32 AM
Reposted by David Firth
Why is economics so laden with mathematics - and are we using a broad enough range of maths?
timharford.com/2025/10/the-...
timharford.com/2025/10/the-...
The wrong kind of maths
The first term of my master’s degree in economics was an alarming experience. The econometrics was bewildering. The macroeconomics was even more mysterious. Everything was drenched in incomprehensi…
timharford.com
October 23, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Why is economics so laden with mathematics - and are we using a broad enough range of maths?
timharford.com/2025/10/the-...
timharford.com/2025/10/the-...
Looking forward to this RSS discussion mtg in London tomorrow. One of the paper's authors is my friend Carl Morris, who sadly died in 2023. Lovely obituaries from Harvard and Austin TX (where he and I worked many years ago).
www.dignitymemorial.com/obituaries/a...
news.harvard.edu/gazette/stor...
www.dignitymemorial.com/obituaries/a...
news.harvard.edu/gazette/stor...
October 21, 2025 at 5:35 PM
Looking forward to this RSS discussion mtg in London tomorrow. One of the paper's authors is my friend Carl Morris, who sadly died in 2023. Lovely obituaries from Harvard and Austin TX (where he and I worked many years ago).
www.dignitymemorial.com/obituaries/a...
news.harvard.edu/gazette/stor...
www.dignitymemorial.com/obituaries/a...
news.harvard.edu/gazette/stor...
Reposted by David Firth
Can we just pause for a moment to appreciate how stunning autumn looks at Open University, UK? 🍁 The campus truly transforms into the most beautiful place to be this season. I’m sure L.M. Montgomery would have loved Octobers at the OU! 🍂 “I’m so glad I live in a world where there are Octobers.”
October 17, 2025 at 4:48 AM
Can we just pause for a moment to appreciate how stunning autumn looks at Open University, UK? 🍁 The campus truly transforms into the most beautiful place to be this season. I’m sure L.M. Montgomery would have loved Octobers at the OU! 🍂 “I’m so glad I live in a world where there are Octobers.”
Reposted by David Firth
The Department of Statistics at the University of Oxford, in association with Merton College, is recruiting an Associate Professor of Statistics.
Closing date for applications: 19 November 2025
Vacancy ID: 179505
Find out more about the role: tinyurl.com/mr2hvkek
Closing date for applications: 19 November 2025
Vacancy ID: 179505
Find out more about the role: tinyurl.com/mr2hvkek
October 16, 2025 at 2:15 PM
The Department of Statistics at the University of Oxford, in association with Merton College, is recruiting an Associate Professor of Statistics.
Closing date for applications: 19 November 2025
Vacancy ID: 179505
Find out more about the role: tinyurl.com/mr2hvkek
Closing date for applications: 19 November 2025
Vacancy ID: 179505
Find out more about the role: tinyurl.com/mr2hvkek
Reposted by David Firth
NEW: The British politician, his Russian intelligence handler & a Kremlin plot against the US & Ukraine.
My new piece about Nathan Gill and Nigel Farage for @thenerve_news in which we ask:
Why, even now, is no-one asking questions?
t.co/BUTtpK9C4S
My new piece about Nathan Gill and Nigel Farage for @thenerve_news in which we ask:
Why, even now, is no-one asking questions?
t.co/BUTtpK9C4S
October 12, 2025 at 11:29 AM
NEW: The British politician, his Russian intelligence handler & a Kremlin plot against the US & Ukraine.
My new piece about Nathan Gill and Nigel Farage for @thenerve_news in which we ask:
Why, even now, is no-one asking questions?
t.co/BUTtpK9C4S
My new piece about Nathan Gill and Nigel Farage for @thenerve_news in which we ask:
Why, even now, is no-one asking questions?
t.co/BUTtpK9C4S
Reposted by David Firth
‘“Faragism” is neoliberalism at its most inhumane, more destructive even than [Thatcher’s] monetarism, and vindictive far beyond austerity.’
Good analysis by Gordon Brown - and why progressives should attack Farage on economics above all:
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Good analysis by Gordon Brown - and why progressives should attack Farage on economics above all:
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Don’t fall for the authoritarian hype – Reform and the hard right can be stopped in their tracks | Gordon Brown
From the US to Europe and Asia, grievances are being exploited to gain power. But moderate voices are still in tune with the majority, says former prime minister Gordon Brown
www.theguardian.com
October 11, 2025 at 10:09 AM
‘“Faragism” is neoliberalism at its most inhumane, more destructive even than [Thatcher’s] monetarism, and vindictive far beyond austerity.’
Good analysis by Gordon Brown - and why progressives should attack Farage on economics above all:
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Good analysis by Gordon Brown - and why progressives should attack Farage on economics above all:
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...