koenfucius
@koenfucius.bsky.social
Accidental behavioural economist
koenfucius.substack.com
koenfucius.substack.com
Pinned
Blogged: (Well) Beyond the Trade-off
Decisions are often regarded as ultimately reducing to a trade-off. That is not the most constructive way to approach them, though, because more often than not, they are really manifestations of a conflict:
buff.ly/XZ1uELk
Decisions are often regarded as ultimately reducing to a trade-off. That is not the most constructive way to approach them, though, because more often than not, they are really manifestations of a conflict:
buff.ly/XZ1uELk
If you want to make an impact, steer clear of describing and summarizing. Yes, it’s accurate, but where’s the impact?
Capture the *mood* and make it *gripping*, advises Dave Trott.
Take a leaf—or rather the cover—out of William Golding’s book:
buff.ly/eA9CzWY
Capture the *mood* and make it *gripping*, advises Dave Trott.
Take a leaf—or rather the cover—out of William Golding’s book:
buff.ly/eA9CzWY
November 24, 2025 at 9:17 PM
If you want to make an impact, steer clear of describing and summarizing. Yes, it’s accurate, but where’s the impact?
Capture the *mood* and make it *gripping*, advises Dave Trott.
Take a leaf—or rather the cover—out of William Golding’s book:
buff.ly/eA9CzWY
Capture the *mood* and make it *gripping*, advises Dave Trott.
Take a leaf—or rather the cover—out of William Golding’s book:
buff.ly/eA9CzWY
Socrates meets his AI equal: buff.ly/d4lNW1U
November 24, 2025 at 7:51 PM
Socrates meets his AI equal: buff.ly/d4lNW1U
The saying, “Possession is 9/10 of the law” has an authoritative evolutionary precedent—the endowment effect.
In chimpanzees, a sensible, well-calibrated tool for survival; in humans it is perhaps slightly over-fitting, though, writes @oliverpayne:
buff.ly/mrdyIEt
In chimpanzees, a sensible, well-calibrated tool for survival; in humans it is perhaps slightly over-fitting, though, writes @oliverpayne:
buff.ly/mrdyIEt
November 24, 2025 at 6:19 PM
The saying, “Possession is 9/10 of the law” has an authoritative evolutionary precedent—the endowment effect.
In chimpanzees, a sensible, well-calibrated tool for survival; in humans it is perhaps slightly over-fitting, though, writes @oliverpayne:
buff.ly/mrdyIEt
In chimpanzees, a sensible, well-calibrated tool for survival; in humans it is perhaps slightly over-fitting, though, writes @oliverpayne:
buff.ly/mrdyIEt
A goodly chunk of conspiracy theories involve alleged (looming) catastrophes.
Some may sound plausible, but most are probably false. @andymasley is keeping a running list of such likely fake catastrophes:
buff.ly/cWIVLNw
Some may sound plausible, but most are probably false. @andymasley is keeping a running list of such likely fake catastrophes:
buff.ly/cWIVLNw
November 24, 2025 at 5:35 PM
A goodly chunk of conspiracy theories involve alleged (looming) catastrophes.
Some may sound plausible, but most are probably false. @andymasley is keeping a running list of such likely fake catastrophes:
buff.ly/cWIVLNw
Some may sound plausible, but most are probably false. @andymasley is keeping a running list of such likely fake catastrophes:
buff.ly/cWIVLNw
Does an adversarial collaboration approach to researching controversial topics work?
Isch et al asked some adversarial researchers.
While not producing clear winners, integrating perspectives deepened understanding of the problem space → “Go for it!”
buff.ly/QNAZrxI
Isch et al asked some adversarial researchers.
While not producing clear winners, integrating perspectives deepened understanding of the problem space → “Go for it!”
buff.ly/QNAZrxI
November 24, 2025 at 4:09 PM
Does an adversarial collaboration approach to researching controversial topics work?
Isch et al asked some adversarial researchers.
While not producing clear winners, integrating perspectives deepened understanding of the problem space → “Go for it!”
buff.ly/QNAZrxI
Isch et al asked some adversarial researchers.
While not producing clear winners, integrating perspectives deepened understanding of the problem space → “Go for it!”
buff.ly/QNAZrxI
We tend to see decisions as tradeoffs across 2 or more quantifiable attributes.
But most decisions involve at least some non-quantifiable elements, making weighing up pros and cons tricky.
Is there a better way to approach them?
Yes, there is:
buff.ly/XZ1uELk
But most decisions involve at least some non-quantifiable elements, making weighing up pros and cons tricky.
Is there a better way to approach them?
Yes, there is:
buff.ly/XZ1uELk
November 24, 2025 at 12:22 PM
We tend to see decisions as tradeoffs across 2 or more quantifiable attributes.
But most decisions involve at least some non-quantifiable elements, making weighing up pros and cons tricky.
Is there a better way to approach them?
Yes, there is:
buff.ly/XZ1uELk
But most decisions involve at least some non-quantifiable elements, making weighing up pros and cons tricky.
Is there a better way to approach them?
Yes, there is:
buff.ly/XZ1uELk
We all have a narrative identity—we are shaped by the story of our life.
Some people weave collective historic events in their story, with more intense connections are linked with personality, esp ↑ Extraversion and ↓ Neuroticism:
buff.ly/vvWVOSm
HT @christianjarrett.bsky.social
Some people weave collective historic events in their story, with more intense connections are linked with personality, esp ↑ Extraversion and ↓ Neuroticism:
buff.ly/vvWVOSm
HT @christianjarrett.bsky.social
November 24, 2025 at 11:35 AM
We all have a narrative identity—we are shaped by the story of our life.
Some people weave collective historic events in their story, with more intense connections are linked with personality, esp ↑ Extraversion and ↓ Neuroticism:
buff.ly/vvWVOSm
HT @christianjarrett.bsky.social
Some people weave collective historic events in their story, with more intense connections are linked with personality, esp ↑ Extraversion and ↓ Neuroticism:
buff.ly/vvWVOSm
HT @christianjarrett.bsky.social
Unpersuaded by accuracy
Research by @yshemesh.bsky.social et al suggests that, while people are sensitive to valid cues of accuracy (expertise, trustworthiness, and emotional composure) they are also misled by invalid ones (eloquence and confidence):
buff.ly/xgYiStL
Research by @yshemesh.bsky.social et al suggests that, while people are sensitive to valid cues of accuracy (expertise, trustworthiness, and emotional composure) they are also misled by invalid ones (eloquence and confidence):
buff.ly/xgYiStL
November 24, 2025 at 9:18 AM
Unpersuaded by accuracy
Research by @yshemesh.bsky.social et al suggests that, while people are sensitive to valid cues of accuracy (expertise, trustworthiness, and emotional composure) they are also misled by invalid ones (eloquence and confidence):
buff.ly/xgYiStL
Research by @yshemesh.bsky.social et al suggests that, while people are sensitive to valid cues of accuracy (expertise, trustworthiness, and emotional composure) they are also misled by invalid ones (eloquence and confidence):
buff.ly/xgYiStL
The anti-status quo bias
Researchers find people prefer political leaders who promise change, even if they agree that the best course of action is maintaining the status quo:
buff.ly/ZWrdnbb
via @psypost.bsky.social
Researchers find people prefer political leaders who promise change, even if they agree that the best course of action is maintaining the status quo:
buff.ly/ZWrdnbb
via @psypost.bsky.social
November 24, 2025 at 6:53 AM
The anti-status quo bias
Researchers find people prefer political leaders who promise change, even if they agree that the best course of action is maintaining the status quo:
buff.ly/ZWrdnbb
via @psypost.bsky.social
Researchers find people prefer political leaders who promise change, even if they agree that the best course of action is maintaining the status quo:
buff.ly/ZWrdnbb
via @psypost.bsky.social
Does evolution favour the strongest, and is it questionable because of the gaps in the fossil record?
A little learning (about evolution) leads to a lot of misconceptions, writes David Barash, listing and debunking ten persistent myths:
buff.ly/siOymSF
A little learning (about evolution) leads to a lot of misconceptions, writes David Barash, listing and debunking ten persistent myths:
buff.ly/siOymSF
November 24, 2025 at 6:36 AM
Does evolution favour the strongest, and is it questionable because of the gaps in the fossil record?
A little learning (about evolution) leads to a lot of misconceptions, writes David Barash, listing and debunking ten persistent myths:
buff.ly/siOymSF
A little learning (about evolution) leads to a lot of misconceptions, writes David Barash, listing and debunking ten persistent myths:
buff.ly/siOymSF
Does singing jazz help you live longer?
Check out these two octogenarian giants in 2011—Cleo Laine is 84, Tony Bennett 85—who lived on to the age respectively of 97 and 96, in a marvellous performance of the standard, The Way You Look Tonight:
youtu.be/P8hpSeR-E8U
Check out these two octogenarian giants in 2011—Cleo Laine is 84, Tony Bennett 85—who lived on to the age respectively of 97 and 96, in a marvellous performance of the standard, The Way You Look Tonight:
youtu.be/P8hpSeR-E8U
November 23, 2025 at 9:17 PM
Does singing jazz help you live longer?
Check out these two octogenarian giants in 2011—Cleo Laine is 84, Tony Bennett 85—who lived on to the age respectively of 97 and 96, in a marvellous performance of the standard, The Way You Look Tonight:
youtu.be/P8hpSeR-E8U
Check out these two octogenarian giants in 2011—Cleo Laine is 84, Tony Bennett 85—who lived on to the age respectively of 97 and 96, in a marvellous performance of the standard, The Way You Look Tonight:
youtu.be/P8hpSeR-E8U
People who think they’re good at spotting bullshitters are in fact—like most of us—good at spotting *bad* bullshitters. Few are good at spotting *good* bullshitters.
There’s a name for this, explains @metacognishane—the (bad) toupee fallacy:
buff.ly/4eSwwqH
There’s a name for this, explains @metacognishane—the (bad) toupee fallacy:
buff.ly/4eSwwqH
November 23, 2025 at 7:51 PM
People who think they’re good at spotting bullshitters are in fact—like most of us—good at spotting *bad* bullshitters. Few are good at spotting *good* bullshitters.
There’s a name for this, explains @metacognishane—the (bad) toupee fallacy:
buff.ly/4eSwwqH
There’s a name for this, explains @metacognishane—the (bad) toupee fallacy:
buff.ly/4eSwwqH
Lies, damn lies and viral charts
@drcameronmurray offers an eclectic collection of charts that went viral for all kinds of reasons other than being accurate and truthful, and explains how he was able to quickly sniff out what was wrong with them:
buff.ly/U7DSwwa
@drcameronmurray offers an eclectic collection of charts that went viral for all kinds of reasons other than being accurate and truthful, and explains how he was able to quickly sniff out what was wrong with them:
buff.ly/U7DSwwa
November 23, 2025 at 6:19 PM
Lies, damn lies and viral charts
@drcameronmurray offers an eclectic collection of charts that went viral for all kinds of reasons other than being accurate and truthful, and explains how he was able to quickly sniff out what was wrong with them:
buff.ly/U7DSwwa
@drcameronmurray offers an eclectic collection of charts that went viral for all kinds of reasons other than being accurate and truthful, and explains how he was able to quickly sniff out what was wrong with them:
buff.ly/U7DSwwa
Size matters in scientific research
@jayvanbavel.bsky.social argues that large teams produce greater scientific impact, and proposes a framework for building large scale networks to coordinate research over hundreds of collaborators and tens of territories:
buff.ly/qPWZZS5
@jayvanbavel.bsky.social argues that large teams produce greater scientific impact, and proposes a framework for building large scale networks to coordinate research over hundreds of collaborators and tens of territories:
buff.ly/qPWZZS5
November 23, 2025 at 5:08 PM
Size matters in scientific research
@jayvanbavel.bsky.social argues that large teams produce greater scientific impact, and proposes a framework for building large scale networks to coordinate research over hundreds of collaborators and tens of territories:
buff.ly/qPWZZS5
@jayvanbavel.bsky.social argues that large teams produce greater scientific impact, and proposes a framework for building large scale networks to coordinate research over hundreds of collaborators and tens of territories:
buff.ly/qPWZZS5
Richer people tend to be happier than poorer ones, while people in richer countries are not happier than those in poorer ones—this is the Easterlin paradox.
Recent research further clarifies the multifaceted link between income and happiness:
www.economicsobservatory.com/does-getting...
Recent research further clarifies the multifaceted link between income and happiness:
www.economicsobservatory.com/does-getting...
November 23, 2025 at 12:22 PM
Richer people tend to be happier than poorer ones, while people in richer countries are not happier than those in poorer ones—this is the Easterlin paradox.
Recent research further clarifies the multifaceted link between income and happiness:
www.economicsobservatory.com/does-getting...
Recent research further clarifies the multifaceted link between income and happiness:
www.economicsobservatory.com/does-getting...
Ziet de groeiende‘verwettelijking’ van maatschappelijk gedrag, van zwerfvuil en cruisen tot openbare dronkenschap en haatspraak, over het hoofd dat sociale normen—die vaak beter sturend werken—daardoor hun macht verliezen?
ICYMI, mijn @apache_be stukje:
buff.ly/2s1nvGt
ICYMI, mijn @apache_be stukje:
buff.ly/2s1nvGt
November 23, 2025 at 11:35 AM
Ziet de groeiende‘verwettelijking’ van maatschappelijk gedrag, van zwerfvuil en cruisen tot openbare dronkenschap en haatspraak, over het hoofd dat sociale normen—die vaak beter sturend werken—daardoor hun macht verliezen?
ICYMI, mijn @apache_be stukje:
buff.ly/2s1nvGt
ICYMI, mijn @apache_be stukje:
buff.ly/2s1nvGt
“Understanding the mind requires understanding history, because psychology is not only constructed in the present but shaped through deep historical time.”
—Jackson and Atari on the key questions Historical Psychology can help address:
buff.ly/U0pPHZm
—Jackson and Atari on the key questions Historical Psychology can help address:
buff.ly/U0pPHZm
November 23, 2025 at 9:18 AM
“Understanding the mind requires understanding history, because psychology is not only constructed in the present but shaped through deep historical time.”
—Jackson and Atari on the key questions Historical Psychology can help address:
buff.ly/U0pPHZm
—Jackson and Atari on the key questions Historical Psychology can help address:
buff.ly/U0pPHZm
Our behaviour is not guided by our values, but by the predictions of our mental systems—known as goal-directed processing.
A different response would go against our self-concept.
Thus, behavioural change requires us to change what we expect to do:
buff.ly/ojivTAm
A different response would go against our self-concept.
Thus, behavioural change requires us to change what we expect to do:
buff.ly/ojivTAm
November 23, 2025 at 7:53 AM
Our behaviour is not guided by our values, but by the predictions of our mental systems—known as goal-directed processing.
A different response would go against our self-concept.
Thus, behavioural change requires us to change what we expect to do:
buff.ly/ojivTAm
A different response would go against our self-concept.
Thus, behavioural change requires us to change what we expect to do:
buff.ly/ojivTAm
Pi day is so passé… today, November 23, we celebrate Fibonacci Sequence Day (1, 1, 2, 3…).
Leonardo (Fi)Bonacci not only came up with the famous sequence, but also championed the adoption of the Hindu-Arabic number system in the 13th C:
buff.ly/bRAcd14
Leonardo (Fi)Bonacci not only came up with the famous sequence, but also championed the adoption of the Hindu-Arabic number system in the 13th C:
buff.ly/bRAcd14
November 23, 2025 at 7:36 AM
Pi day is so passé… today, November 23, we celebrate Fibonacci Sequence Day (1, 1, 2, 3…).
Leonardo (Fi)Bonacci not only came up with the famous sequence, but also championed the adoption of the Hindu-Arabic number system in the 13th C:
buff.ly/bRAcd14
Leonardo (Fi)Bonacci not only came up with the famous sequence, but also championed the adoption of the Hindu-Arabic number system in the 13th C:
buff.ly/bRAcd14
Do we have a right to privacy?
This wryly humorous animated short by Alice Nelson documents a case that raises a serious question mark—
The curious case of a man and the bike he loved:
buff.ly/qFf0Qd5
This wryly humorous animated short by Alice Nelson documents a case that raises a serious question mark—
The curious case of a man and the bike he loved:
buff.ly/qFf0Qd5
November 22, 2025 at 9:17 PM
Do we have a right to privacy?
This wryly humorous animated short by Alice Nelson documents a case that raises a serious question mark—
The curious case of a man and the bike he loved:
buff.ly/qFf0Qd5
This wryly humorous animated short by Alice Nelson documents a case that raises a serious question mark—
The curious case of a man and the bike he loved:
buff.ly/qFf0Qd5
Could plants—which lack a brain and a nervous system—be capable of cognition?
Here is an argument rebuilding cognition from the ground up:
buff.ly/aj4fEOG
Here is an argument rebuilding cognition from the ground up:
buff.ly/aj4fEOG
November 22, 2025 at 7:51 PM
Could plants—which lack a brain and a nervous system—be capable of cognition?
Here is an argument rebuilding cognition from the ground up:
buff.ly/aj4fEOG
Here is an argument rebuilding cognition from the ground up:
buff.ly/aj4fEOG
What came first—the chicken or the egg? Never mind that—what came first, morality or religion?
@lionelpage.bsky.social challenges (if not debunks) the common assumption that religion was a prerequisite for morality. Game theory offers a far more plausible foundation:
buff.ly/ObDnxWi
@lionelpage.bsky.social challenges (if not debunks) the common assumption that religion was a prerequisite for morality. Game theory offers a far more plausible foundation:
buff.ly/ObDnxWi
November 22, 2025 at 6:19 PM
What came first—the chicken or the egg? Never mind that—what came first, morality or religion?
@lionelpage.bsky.social challenges (if not debunks) the common assumption that religion was a prerequisite for morality. Game theory offers a far more plausible foundation:
buff.ly/ObDnxWi
@lionelpage.bsky.social challenges (if not debunks) the common assumption that religion was a prerequisite for morality. Game theory offers a far more plausible foundation:
buff.ly/ObDnxWi
“There always seems to be much more to learn from our failures than our successes.”
Barry @ritholtz.bsky.social revisits his worst trades, including selling Apple stock with a 300% gain:
buff.ly/709TOoy
Barry @ritholtz.bsky.social revisits his worst trades, including selling Apple stock with a 300% gain:
buff.ly/709TOoy
November 22, 2025 at 5:35 PM
“There always seems to be much more to learn from our failures than our successes.”
Barry @ritholtz.bsky.social revisits his worst trades, including selling Apple stock with a 300% gain:
buff.ly/709TOoy
Barry @ritholtz.bsky.social revisits his worst trades, including selling Apple stock with a 300% gain:
buff.ly/709TOoy
Research by @andresm.bsky.social et al suggests that, for donations, people prefer causes that evoke empathy to causes that are more effective in using resources—because they rightly perceive a reputational cost to ‘deliberating’ over charitable donations:
buff.ly/HmYGd4E
buff.ly/HmYGd4E
November 22, 2025 at 4:09 PM
Research by @andresm.bsky.social et al suggests that, for donations, people prefer causes that evoke empathy to causes that are more effective in using resources—because they rightly perceive a reputational cost to ‘deliberating’ over charitable donations:
buff.ly/HmYGd4E
buff.ly/HmYGd4E
If you and your close colleague cannot both take time off over the holiday season, how will you decide whether or not to take advantage of his absence to make sure it’s you?
Trade-off reasoning—a common approach in decision making—won’t help. What will?
buff.ly/XZ1uELk
Trade-off reasoning—a common approach in decision making—won’t help. What will?
buff.ly/XZ1uELk
November 22, 2025 at 12:22 PM
If you and your close colleague cannot both take time off over the holiday season, how will you decide whether or not to take advantage of his absence to make sure it’s you?
Trade-off reasoning—a common approach in decision making—won’t help. What will?
buff.ly/XZ1uELk
Trade-off reasoning—a common approach in decision making—won’t help. What will?
buff.ly/XZ1uELk