Felix Thoemmes
@felixthoemmes.bsky.social
Reposted by Felix Thoemmes
LAST CALL! #Sociology Professorships in Copenhagen, Denmark!
We're hiring 2+ open-rank profs (Asst/Assoc/Full). Any area.
Deadline: this Saturday, Nov 15!
Join a leading European sociology department. Please repost!
jobportal.ku.dk/videnskabeli...
We're hiring 2+ open-rank profs (Asst/Assoc/Full). Any area.
Deadline: this Saturday, Nov 15!
Join a leading European sociology department. Please repost!
jobportal.ku.dk/videnskabeli...
Call for two or more open-rank academic positions in Sociology
jobportal.ku.dk
November 9, 2025 at 8:08 AM
LAST CALL! #Sociology Professorships in Copenhagen, Denmark!
We're hiring 2+ open-rank profs (Asst/Assoc/Full). Any area.
Deadline: this Saturday, Nov 15!
Join a leading European sociology department. Please repost!
jobportal.ku.dk/videnskabeli...
We're hiring 2+ open-rank profs (Asst/Assoc/Full). Any area.
Deadline: this Saturday, Nov 15!
Join a leading European sociology department. Please repost!
jobportal.ku.dk/videnskabeli...
Reposted by Felix Thoemmes
Agreed. I'd go further and say if you see language like this in a paper, it's a huge red flag the research team has a poor grasp on statistics.
This is important. People still do this a lot, and it ends up being a back-door method of inferring an interaction (e.g., “effect was significant in women but not men”)
“changes in statistical significance are often not themselves statistically significant. … even large changes in significance levels can correspond to small, nonsignificant changes in the underlying quantities.”
www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1...
#Statistics
www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1...
#Statistics
November 9, 2025 at 1:36 PM
Agreed. I'd go further and say if you see language like this in a paper, it's a huge red flag the research team has a poor grasp on statistics.
Reposted by Felix Thoemmes
In economics we call these Manski Bounds.
AI could end scarcity, end humanity - or boost trend growth by 0.2 percentage points
November 7, 2025 at 8:26 PM
In economics we call these Manski Bounds.
Reposted by Felix Thoemmes
My reviewing style has changed over time. Rather than litigate every little thing, and pushing my own ideas, I focus only on 2 things:
(1) Are the claims interesting/important?
(2) Does the evidence support the claims?
Most of my reviews these days are short and focused.
(1) Are the claims interesting/important?
(2) Does the evidence support the claims?
Most of my reviews these days are short and focused.
November 8, 2025 at 11:22 AM
My reviewing style has changed over time. Rather than litigate every little thing, and pushing my own ideas, I focus only on 2 things:
(1) Are the claims interesting/important?
(2) Does the evidence support the claims?
Most of my reviews these days are short and focused.
(1) Are the claims interesting/important?
(2) Does the evidence support the claims?
Most of my reviews these days are short and focused.
Reposted by Felix Thoemmes
My Shiny app containing 3530 Open Science blog posts discussing the replication crisis is updated - you can now use the SEARCH box. I fixed it as my new PhD Julia wanted to know who had called open scientists 'Methodological Terrorists' :) shiny.ieis.tue.nl/open_science...
Open Science Blog Browser
Open Science Blog Browser
shiny.ieis.tue.nl
November 8, 2025 at 7:15 PM
My Shiny app containing 3530 Open Science blog posts discussing the replication crisis is updated - you can now use the SEARCH box. I fixed it as my new PhD Julia wanted to know who had called open scientists 'Methodological Terrorists' :) shiny.ieis.tue.nl/open_science...
Reposted by Felix Thoemmes
A new and very accurate technique called mind captioning’ generates descriptive sentences of what a person is seeing or picturing in their mind using a read-out of their brain activity and AI tools.
This could also be used to reveal what animals are thinking.
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
This could also be used to reveal what animals are thinking.
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Mind captioning: Evolving descriptive text of mental content from human brain activity
Nonverbal thoughts can be translated into verbal descriptions by aligning semantic representations between text and the brain.
www.science.org
November 8, 2025 at 2:43 PM
A new and very accurate technique called mind captioning’ generates descriptive sentences of what a person is seeing or picturing in their mind using a read-out of their brain activity and AI tools.
This could also be used to reveal what animals are thinking.
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
This could also be used to reveal what animals are thinking.
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Reposted by Felix Thoemmes
Found this gem of a paper in the AMPPS archives on using containers in psychological science. What's a container, you ask? Read on...
November 8, 2025 at 12:55 PM
Found this gem of a paper in the AMPPS archives on using containers in psychological science. What's a container, you ask? Read on...
Reposted by Felix Thoemmes
"Cornell is the fourth institution to achieve an agreement with the Trump administration to restore federal money, following Columbia University, the University of Pennsylvania, and Brown University." www.chronicle.com/article/corn...
Cornell Will Pay $60 Million and Provide Admissions Data in Deal to Restore Federal Funding
The university, which had seen hundreds of millions of dollars frozen, said the deal “will enable us to return to our teaching and research in restored partnership with federal agencies.”
www.chronicle.com
November 7, 2025 at 6:28 PM
"Cornell is the fourth institution to achieve an agreement with the Trump administration to restore federal money, following Columbia University, the University of Pennsylvania, and Brown University." www.chronicle.com/article/corn...
Reposted by Felix Thoemmes
A recent redesign of OSF by @cos.io led to widespread access failures. What began as a few broken download links became for me a total disappearance of eight years of DOI-registered work. What happened, how was it resolved, and what it reveals about trust and infrastructure in open science
Open Science needs reliable infrastructure – Ven Popov
After OSF’s October 2025 redesign, I discovered that eight years of DOI-linked preprints and materials were silently hidden by an automated spam flag. What happened, how it was resolved, and what it r...
venpopov.com
November 6, 2025 at 6:13 PM
A recent redesign of OSF by @cos.io led to widespread access failures. What began as a few broken download links became for me a total disappearance of eight years of DOI-registered work. What happened, how was it resolved, and what it reveals about trust and infrastructure in open science
Reposted by Felix Thoemmes
An Imbens retrospective on experimental v. non-experimental methods — looks like a must-read www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Comparing Experimental and Nonexperimental Methods: What Lessons Have We Learned Four Decades after LaLonde (1986)?
(Fall 2025) - In 1986, Robert LaLonde published an article comparing nonexperimental estimates to experimental benchmarks (LaLonde 1986). He concluded that the nonexperimental methods at the time coul...
www.aeaweb.org
November 6, 2025 at 4:47 PM
An Imbens retrospective on experimental v. non-experimental methods — looks like a must-read www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Reposted by Felix Thoemmes
I'd like to re-up this paper we published last year bec I believe it makes a fundamental contribution to theoretical metascience but it is woefully underappreciated. We address a key challenge in estimating the reproducibility of a result: The distance of a replication study from the original. 1/n
November 5, 2025 at 7:07 PM
I'd like to re-up this paper we published last year bec I believe it makes a fundamental contribution to theoretical metascience but it is woefully underappreciated. We address a key challenge in estimating the reproducibility of a result: The distance of a replication study from the original. 1/n
Reposted by Felix Thoemmes
Excited to post a new working paper with @instrumenthull.bsky.social and Michal Kolesár: arxiv.org/abs/2511.03572
Will post a thread on it soon, but if you're interested in judge/examiner designs, I think you'll find this guide very helpful!
Will post a thread on it soon, but if you're interested in judge/examiner designs, I think you'll find this guide very helpful!
Leniency Designs: An Operator's Manual
We develop a step-by-step guide to leniency (a.k.a. judge or examiner instrument) designs, drawing on recent econometric literatures. The unbiased jackknife instrumental variables estimator (UJIVE) is...
arxiv.org
November 6, 2025 at 4:06 AM
Excited to post a new working paper with @instrumenthull.bsky.social and Michal Kolesár: arxiv.org/abs/2511.03572
Will post a thread on it soon, but if you're interested in judge/examiner designs, I think you'll find this guide very helpful!
Will post a thread on it soon, but if you're interested in judge/examiner designs, I think you'll find this guide very helpful!
Reposted by Felix Thoemmes
The event B having happened is not the same as the receiving the information O that the event B has happened, because you also condition on receiving the information at all in the latter case. Conflating this contributes a lot to the "paradoxa" such as boy/girl paradox, Monty Hall...
![For the applicability of Bayes' theorem, it is important when the information $B$ you condition on is actually available.
Let $O \subset B$ be the event of observing $B$ with $P(O)>0$. If $O$ and $A$ are independent with respect to $P_{|B}(\cdot) = P(\cdot \mid B)$,
then
\[
P(A\mid O) = P(A \mid B).
\]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:weizynbs42yzl4y6de3z4dvu/bafkreihnkdxbvmdk4um6how7qgvurwhfhrkqhlu4baqlnkeepd7z4kkjfe@jpeg)
November 6, 2025 at 11:09 AM
The event B having happened is not the same as the receiving the information O that the event B has happened, because you also condition on receiving the information at all in the latter case. Conflating this contributes a lot to the "paradoxa" such as boy/girl paradox, Monty Hall...
Reposted by Felix Thoemmes
Can we improve peer review? We think we can! Check out an experiment I helped with as part of @solvingforsci.bsky.social 's mission to make science better.
And if you don't want to read the whole bioRxiv manuscript, here's an overview of the main findings:
solvingfor.org/news-posts-d...
And if you don't want to read the whole bioRxiv manuscript, here's an overview of the main findings:
solvingfor.org/news-posts-d...
November 5, 2025 at 11:25 PM
Can we improve peer review? We think we can! Check out an experiment I helped with as part of @solvingforsci.bsky.social 's mission to make science better.
And if you don't want to read the whole bioRxiv manuscript, here's an overview of the main findings:
solvingfor.org/news-posts-d...
And if you don't want to read the whole bioRxiv manuscript, here's an overview of the main findings:
solvingfor.org/news-posts-d...
Reposted by Felix Thoemmes
Ok, just wow. If the content of this article is right, this is depressing. We're slowly reaching the point where ~100% of what I was taught in Social Psych was either innocently wrong or plainly frauded
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
Debunking “When Prophecy Fails”
In 1954, Dorothy Martin predicted an apocalyptic flood and promised her followers rescue by flying saucers. When neither arrived, she recanted, her group dissolved, and efforts to proselytize ceased....
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
November 5, 2025 at 11:09 PM
Ok, just wow. If the content of this article is right, this is depressing. We're slowly reaching the point where ~100% of what I was taught in Social Psych was either innocently wrong or plainly frauded
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
Reposted by Felix Thoemmes
Reposted by Felix Thoemmes
Prepping for a workshop tomorrow, in which I'm covering sample size calculation and power analysis, among other topics
November 5, 2025 at 9:56 PM
Prepping for a workshop tomorrow, in which I'm covering sample size calculation and power analysis, among other topics
Reposted by Felix Thoemmes
Reposted by Felix Thoemmes
Been thinking for a few years about what I call the *replication ceiling*: the maximum replicability of an effect given constraints in data in which replication takes place (power, measurement error, sampling variability, etc). This leads to a maximum theoretical replicability which can be achieved.
November 5, 2025 at 3:09 AM
Been thinking for a few years about what I call the *replication ceiling*: the maximum replicability of an effect given constraints in data in which replication takes place (power, measurement error, sampling variability, etc). This leads to a maximum theoretical replicability which can be achieved.
Reposted by Felix Thoemmes
It's starting to look really bad for this RCT. Do scroll through the PubPeer comments. They're striking.
On the other hand, this is a big win for open science and post-publication peer review.
On the other hand, this is a big win for open science and post-publication peer review.
The dataset for this study has some serious problems: pubpeer.com/publications...
PubPeer - Prevention of acute myocardial infarction induced heart fail...
There are comments on PubPeer for publication: Prevention of acute myocardial infarction induced heart failure by intracoronary infusion of mesenchymal stem cells: phase 3 randomised clinical trial (P...
pubpeer.com
November 4, 2025 at 6:27 PM
It's starting to look really bad for this RCT. Do scroll through the PubPeer comments. They're striking.
On the other hand, this is a big win for open science and post-publication peer review.
On the other hand, this is a big win for open science and post-publication peer review.
Reposted by Felix Thoemmes
In 1983, households aged 75+ were 5% richer than the average. In 2022, they were 55% richer.
Meanwhile, under-35 households went from 21% of average wealth to just 16%.
America’s wealth is aging way faster than its population.
www.nber.org/digest/20251...
Meanwhile, under-35 households went from 21% of average wealth to just 16%.
America’s wealth is aging way faster than its population.
www.nber.org/digest/20251...
November 4, 2025 at 3:58 PM
In 1983, households aged 75+ were 5% richer than the average. In 2022, they were 55% richer.
Meanwhile, under-35 households went from 21% of average wealth to just 16%.
America’s wealth is aging way faster than its population.
www.nber.org/digest/20251...
Meanwhile, under-35 households went from 21% of average wealth to just 16%.
America’s wealth is aging way faster than its population.
www.nber.org/digest/20251...
Reposted by Felix Thoemmes
Lego soft power at work.
Would read that paper.
Would read that paper.
Anyway, we need some joy, so here's the Egyptian foreign minister being given a Lego Pyramid by the Danish foreign minister.
November 4, 2025 at 12:54 PM
Lego soft power at work.
Would read that paper.
Would read that paper.
Reposted by Felix Thoemmes
A reminder:
NSF makes you say who you got conflicts (coauthored) with. We (really just Jordan Matelsky) just built you a tool for that. Literally one click: bib.experiments.kordinglab.com/nsf-coa
NSF COA | Jordan Matelsky
bib.experiments.kordinglab.com
November 4, 2025 at 12:07 PM
A reminder:
Reposted by Felix Thoemmes
🎨 How to create elegant #dataviz with base #rstats and the #tinyplot pkg
📈 useR! 2025 presentation by Grant McDermott @gmcd.bsky.social
www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOB-...
📈 useR! 2025 presentation by Grant McDermott @gmcd.bsky.social
www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOB-...
tinyplot: convenient and customizable base R plots - Grant McDermott
YouTube video by useR! Conference
www.youtube.com
November 4, 2025 at 7:38 AM
🎨 How to create elegant #dataviz with base #rstats and the #tinyplot pkg
📈 useR! 2025 presentation by Grant McDermott @gmcd.bsky.social
www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOB-...
📈 useR! 2025 presentation by Grant McDermott @gmcd.bsky.social
www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOB-...
Reposted by Felix Thoemmes
The academic job market is doing something very good:
A lot of searches are *NO* longer asking for reference letters until applicants make the short list.
This makes is easier to apply for jobs, reduces the letter writing load for faculty, and makes the review process easier for committee members.
A lot of searches are *NO* longer asking for reference letters until applicants make the short list.
This makes is easier to apply for jobs, reduces the letter writing load for faculty, and makes the review process easier for committee members.
Dear academics
We could dramatically reduce our administrative workload if we all just agreed not to ask for reference letters until we made our list of finalists.
This is massive collective action problem has already been solved by…
*checks notes*
…every other industry on earth.
We could dramatically reduce our administrative workload if we all just agreed not to ask for reference letters until we made our list of finalists.
This is massive collective action problem has already been solved by…
*checks notes*
…every other industry on earth.
Who is for abolishing grad app letters of rec at the point of application? Would it be so bad if letters were requested AFTER candidates were shortlisted? If we do this at UCSD who will join us?
November 3, 2025 at 7:53 PM
The academic job market is doing something very good:
A lot of searches are *NO* longer asking for reference letters until applicants make the short list.
This makes is easier to apply for jobs, reduces the letter writing load for faculty, and makes the review process easier for committee members.
A lot of searches are *NO* longer asking for reference letters until applicants make the short list.
This makes is easier to apply for jobs, reduces the letter writing load for faculty, and makes the review process easier for committee members.