Emir Efendić
@emire.bsky.social
Asst. prof. Maastricht University, Netherlands.
I study judgment and decision-making.
Psychology, Research methods, Statistics, Music.
These short bios are really difficult to write.
I study judgment and decision-making.
Psychology, Research methods, Statistics, Music.
These short bios are really difficult to write.
We have a new pre-print! 📝🖨️
We find that conversing with a disagreeing LLM helped improve people's inaccurate predictions!
osf.io/preprints/ps...
Let me tell you all about it:
We find that conversing with a disagreeing LLM helped improve people's inaccurate predictions!
osf.io/preprints/ps...
Let me tell you all about it:
February 12, 2026 at 9:13 AM
We have a new pre-print! 📝🖨️
We find that conversing with a disagreeing LLM helped improve people's inaccurate predictions!
osf.io/preprints/ps...
Let me tell you all about it:
We find that conversing with a disagreeing LLM helped improve people's inaccurate predictions!
osf.io/preprints/ps...
Let me tell you all about it:
Reposted by Emir Efendić
📣 Applications for the 23rd Summer Institute on Bounded Rationality are now open!
✨Join us in Berlin @arc-mpib.bsky.social June 08–16, 2026, to explore the topic of “Decision Making in the Age of AI”.
✏️ More details + application form (deadline: March 16): www.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/research/res...
✨Join us in Berlin @arc-mpib.bsky.social June 08–16, 2026, to explore the topic of “Decision Making in the Age of AI”.
✏️ More details + application form (deadline: March 16): www.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/research/res...
February 10, 2026 at 12:42 PM
📣 Applications for the 23rd Summer Institute on Bounded Rationality are now open!
✨Join us in Berlin @arc-mpib.bsky.social June 08–16, 2026, to explore the topic of “Decision Making in the Age of AI”.
✏️ More details + application form (deadline: March 16): www.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/research/res...
✨Join us in Berlin @arc-mpib.bsky.social June 08–16, 2026, to explore the topic of “Decision Making in the Age of AI”.
✏️ More details + application form (deadline: March 16): www.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/research/res...
Reposted by Emir Efendić
Sir Ian McKellen performing a monologue from Shakespeare’s Sir Thomas More on the Stephen Colbert show. Never have I heard this monologue performed with such a keen sense of prescience. Nor have I ever been in this exact historical moment.TY Sir Ian, for reaching us once again.
#Pinks #ProudBlue
#Pinks #ProudBlue
February 5, 2026 at 11:50 AM
Sir Ian McKellen performing a monologue from Shakespeare’s Sir Thomas More on the Stephen Colbert show. Never have I heard this monologue performed with such a keen sense of prescience. Nor have I ever been in this exact historical moment.TY Sir Ian, for reaching us once again.
#Pinks #ProudBlue
#Pinks #ProudBlue
Reposted by Emir Efendić
New paper (forthcoming in Cognition): Context-dependent effects of branches in decisions under risk authors.elsevier.com/a/1mXL%7E2Hx...
Key finding: when people choose between risky options, they’re more likely to pick the one with more distinct probabilistic outcomes (“more pathways to winning”).
Key finding: when people choose between risky options, they’re more likely to pick the one with more distinct probabilistic outcomes (“more pathways to winning”).
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All content on this site: Copyright © 2026 Elsevier B.V., its licensors, and contributors. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies. For all open access content, the relevant licensing terms apply.
authors.elsevier.com
February 2, 2026 at 5:41 PM
New paper (forthcoming in Cognition): Context-dependent effects of branches in decisions under risk authors.elsevier.com/a/1mXL%7E2Hx...
Key finding: when people choose between risky options, they’re more likely to pick the one with more distinct probabilistic outcomes (“more pathways to winning”).
Key finding: when people choose between risky options, they’re more likely to pick the one with more distinct probabilistic outcomes (“more pathways to winning”).
Reposted by Emir Efendić
Here’s Duke behavioral economist Dan Ariely asking Jeffrey Epstein for “the name and email of the redhead that was here with you.” This is four years after Epstein’s 2008 conviction for procuring a child for prostitution.
January 31, 2026 at 1:15 AM
Here’s Duke behavioral economist Dan Ariely asking Jeffrey Epstein for “the name and email of the redhead that was here with you.” This is four years after Epstein’s 2008 conviction for procuring a child for prostitution.
Reposted by Emir Efendić
New blog post introducing Causion - a web app for causal inference teaching and learning: pedermisager.org/blog/causion....
Introducing Causion: A web app for playing with DAGs | Peder M. Isager
Personal website of Dr. Peder M. Isager
pedermisager.org
January 28, 2026 at 9:23 AM
New blog post introducing Causion - a web app for causal inference teaching and learning: pedermisager.org/blog/causion....
Reposted by Emir Efendić
The Iowa Gambling Task is an extreme example of Jingle Fallacy and schmeasurement.
In 100 articles we found 244 different ways of scoring it, 177 were never reused. Correlations between them range -.99 to .99.
At the same time, we show meta-analyses combine these results as if they’re equivalent.
In 100 articles we found 244 different ways of scoring it, 177 were never reused. Correlations between them range -.99 to .99.
At the same time, we show meta-analyses combine these results as if they’re equivalent.
How many versions of the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) exist? And how much does this affect research using the IGT? More than you might think. 🧵
Methodological Flexibility in the Iowa Gambling Task Undermines Interpretability: A Meta-method Review: https://osf.io/4g3vr
January 25, 2026 at 12:01 PM
The Iowa Gambling Task is an extreme example of Jingle Fallacy and schmeasurement.
In 100 articles we found 244 different ways of scoring it, 177 were never reused. Correlations between them range -.99 to .99.
At the same time, we show meta-analyses combine these results as if they’re equivalent.
In 100 articles we found 244 different ways of scoring it, 177 were never reused. Correlations between them range -.99 to .99.
At the same time, we show meta-analyses combine these results as if they’re equivalent.
Reposted by Emir Efendić
Comparing registrations to published papers is essential to research integrity - and almost no one does it routinely because it's slow, messy, and time-demanding.
RegCheck was built to help make this process easier.
Today, we launch RegCheck V2.
🧵
regcheck.app
RegCheck was built to help make this process easier.
Today, we launch RegCheck V2.
🧵
regcheck.app
RegCheck
RegCheck is an AI tool to compare preregistrations with papers instantly.
regcheck.app
January 22, 2026 at 11:05 AM
Comparing registrations to published papers is essential to research integrity - and almost no one does it routinely because it's slow, messy, and time-demanding.
RegCheck was built to help make this process easier.
Today, we launch RegCheck V2.
🧵
regcheck.app
RegCheck was built to help make this process easier.
Today, we launch RegCheck V2.
🧵
regcheck.app
Soooo is there an explanation about Macron’s shades or are we all just cool with it?
January 20, 2026 at 8:49 PM
Soooo is there an explanation about Macron’s shades or are we all just cool with it?
This feels like one of those things we’re gonna look back to in a generation whilst gasping in shock.
Meet Veronika, the tool-using cow. Veronika uses sticks to scratch herself, using different orientations and motions, an example of multi-purpose tool use. This suggests scientists may have underestimated cows' cognitive abilities. arstechnica.com/science/2026...
Meet Veronika, the tool-using cow
Veronika uses sticks to scratch herself, suggesting scientists have underestimated cow cognition...
arstechnica.com
January 19, 2026 at 7:14 PM
This feels like one of those things we’re gonna look back to in a generation whilst gasping in shock.
Reposted by Emir Efendić
Do you want to work with me?:) Please spread the word! We are looking for talented Post-doc candidates for a 10-month Junior Fellowship at the Behavioral Science Center, hosted by the Corvinus Institute for Advanced Studies (CIAS). 1/6
www.the-bs-lab.com
www.the-bs-lab.com
Behavioral Science
What do we do?
We conduct large-scale behavioral science studies to improve the daily decisions, behavior, and experience of vulnerable individuals (e.g., the well-being of citizens and families / ed...
www.the-bs-lab.com
January 5, 2026 at 9:16 PM
Do you want to work with me?:) Please spread the word! We are looking for talented Post-doc candidates for a 10-month Junior Fellowship at the Behavioral Science Center, hosted by the Corvinus Institute for Advanced Studies (CIAS). 1/6
www.the-bs-lab.com
www.the-bs-lab.com
Reposted by Emir Efendić
I’ve spent this morning morbidly watching the MTV channels close down and the final songs played were:
MTV Music - Video Killed the Radio Star (Buggles)
Club MTV - Don’t Stop the Music (Rihanna)
MTV 90s - Goodbye (Spice Girls)
MTV 80s - Together in Electric Dreams (Oakey and Moroder)
MTV Music - Video Killed the Radio Star (Buggles)
Club MTV - Don’t Stop the Music (Rihanna)
MTV 90s - Goodbye (Spice Girls)
MTV 80s - Together in Electric Dreams (Oakey and Moroder)
December 31, 2025 at 10:34 AM
I’ve spent this morning morbidly watching the MTV channels close down and the final songs played were:
MTV Music - Video Killed the Radio Star (Buggles)
Club MTV - Don’t Stop the Music (Rihanna)
MTV 90s - Goodbye (Spice Girls)
MTV 80s - Together in Electric Dreams (Oakey and Moroder)
MTV Music - Video Killed the Radio Star (Buggles)
Club MTV - Don’t Stop the Music (Rihanna)
MTV 90s - Goodbye (Spice Girls)
MTV 80s - Together in Electric Dreams (Oakey and Moroder)
These types of papers are really nice to see out there.
An adversarial collaboration sounds like an oxymoron but seems to be producing good science.
An adversarial collaboration sounds like an oxymoron but seems to be producing good science.
🚨 Now out in Psych Science 🚨
We report an adversarial collaboration (with @donandrewmoore.bsky.social) testing whether overconfidence is genuinely a trait
The paper was led by Jabin Binnendyk & Sophia Li (who is fantastic and on the job market!) Free copy here: journals.sagepub.com/eprint/7JIYS...
We report an adversarial collaboration (with @donandrewmoore.bsky.social) testing whether overconfidence is genuinely a trait
The paper was led by Jabin Binnendyk & Sophia Li (who is fantastic and on the job market!) Free copy here: journals.sagepub.com/eprint/7JIYS...
December 17, 2025 at 7:27 PM
These types of papers are really nice to see out there.
An adversarial collaboration sounds like an oxymoron but seems to be producing good science.
An adversarial collaboration sounds like an oxymoron but seems to be producing good science.
Reposted by Emir Efendić
Did you know that from tomorrow, Qualtrics is offering synthetic panels (AI-generated participants)?
Follow me down a rabbit hole I'm calling "doing science is tough and I'm so busy, can't we just make up participants?"
Follow me down a rabbit hole I'm calling "doing science is tough and I'm so busy, can't we just make up participants?"
December 16, 2025 at 5:38 PM
Did you know that from tomorrow, Qualtrics is offering synthetic panels (AI-generated participants)?
Follow me down a rabbit hole I'm calling "doing science is tough and I'm so busy, can't we just make up participants?"
Follow me down a rabbit hole I'm calling "doing science is tough and I'm so busy, can't we just make up participants?"
Reposted by Emir Efendić
📝 OPEN LETTER 📝
Are you based in NL 🇳🇱 ? Do you also want government to thoughtfully shape our digital future, with care for people and nature? Please share and sign 🖊️ this letter addressed to parties forming the new Dutch government and outgoing administration.
📝 openletter.earth/zorgvuldig-a...
Are you based in NL 🇳🇱 ? Do you also want government to thoughtfully shape our digital future, with care for people and nature? Please share and sign 🖊️ this letter addressed to parties forming the new Dutch government and outgoing administration.
📝 openletter.earth/zorgvuldig-a...
December 13, 2025 at 7:52 PM
📝 OPEN LETTER 📝
Are you based in NL 🇳🇱 ? Do you also want government to thoughtfully shape our digital future, with care for people and nature? Please share and sign 🖊️ this letter addressed to parties forming the new Dutch government and outgoing administration.
📝 openletter.earth/zorgvuldig-a...
Are you based in NL 🇳🇱 ? Do you also want government to thoughtfully shape our digital future, with care for people and nature? Please share and sign 🖊️ this letter addressed to parties forming the new Dutch government and outgoing administration.
📝 openletter.earth/zorgvuldig-a...
Reposted by Emir Efendić
This is nuts. I urge my fellow academics to take this into account, for example when organizing conferences and the like
NEW: Five years of social media history is only a fraction of what the US Government will shortly demand of overseas visitors.
The full requirements will end tourism in the United States.
Below is the full, mind-blowing list.
🚨THEY. WANT. YOUR. DNA.🚨
1/
The full requirements will end tourism in the United States.
Below is the full, mind-blowing list.
🚨THEY. WANT. YOUR. DNA.🚨
1/
December 12, 2025 at 9:57 AM
This is nuts. I urge my fellow academics to take this into account, for example when organizing conferences and the like
Not only does this makes sense and is encouraging but also, any primacy that the US had in terms of conference locations for academics should be stopped.
The south of (insert any European country) is better.
The south of (insert any European country) is better.
December 12, 2025 at 11:08 AM
Not only does this makes sense and is encouraging but also, any primacy that the US had in terms of conference locations for academics should be stopped.
The south of (insert any European country) is better.
The south of (insert any European country) is better.
Reposted by Emir Efendić
Please help share this vacancy for a 4-year postdoc in Disinformation and European Democracy at Maastricht University
#Polisky #EUsky #Commsky #Academicsky
#Polisky #EUsky #Commsky #Academicsky
Great opportunity at @fasosmaastricht.bsky.social: we have 4-year postdoc position on disinformation and European democracy. Possible disciplinary focus includes, e.g., political science and computational social science. Interdisciplinary approaches to disinformation are encouraged.
Post-doctoral researcher in Disinformation and European Democracy (4-year)
Post-doctoral researcher in Disinformation and European Democracy (4-year)
vacancies.maastrichtuniversity.nl
December 8, 2025 at 4:08 PM
Please help share this vacancy for a 4-year postdoc in Disinformation and European Democracy at Maastricht University
#Polisky #EUsky #Commsky #Academicsky
#Polisky #EUsky #Commsky #Academicsky
Reposted by Emir Efendić
Will Arnett was on Conan and told a story about how Conan dealt with the death of his parents by accusing Jason Bateman of killing them. It’s so funny.
December 9, 2025 at 5:35 PM
Will Arnett was on Conan and told a story about how Conan dealt with the death of his parents by accusing Jason Bateman of killing them. It’s so funny.
Reposted by Emir Efendić
Want to make nice graphs with me, starting next year? I'm hiring for a position at the University of Witten/Herdecke.
uni-wh.softgarden.io/job/61280592...
uni-wh.softgarden.io/job/61280592...
December 3, 2025 at 12:48 PM
Want to make nice graphs with me, starting next year? I'm hiring for a position at the University of Witten/Herdecke.
uni-wh.softgarden.io/job/61280592...
uni-wh.softgarden.io/job/61280592...
Reposted by Emir Efendić
Looking for books to get for #climate curious friends & family this Christmas🎄?
Here are 6 of my favourites reads this year.
First up, Yale University historian Sunil Amrith's relentlessly edifying 'The Burning Earth'. A staggeringly comprehensive account of how we got to where we are! 🧵
Here are 6 of my favourites reads this year.
First up, Yale University historian Sunil Amrith's relentlessly edifying 'The Burning Earth'. A staggeringly comprehensive account of how we got to where we are! 🧵
December 3, 2025 at 5:18 AM
Looking for books to get for #climate curious friends & family this Christmas🎄?
Here are 6 of my favourites reads this year.
First up, Yale University historian Sunil Amrith's relentlessly edifying 'The Burning Earth'. A staggeringly comprehensive account of how we got to where we are! 🧵
Here are 6 of my favourites reads this year.
First up, Yale University historian Sunil Amrith's relentlessly edifying 'The Burning Earth'. A staggeringly comprehensive account of how we got to where we are! 🧵
Reposted by Emir Efendić
🚨 SynthNet is out 🚨
Researchers propose new constructs and measures faster than anyone can track. We (@anniria.bsky.social @ruben.the100.ci) built a search engine to check what already exists and help identify redundancies; indexing 74,000 scales from ~31,500 instruments in APA PsycTests. 🧵1/3
Researchers propose new constructs and measures faster than anyone can track. We (@anniria.bsky.social @ruben.the100.ci) built a search engine to check what already exists and help identify redundancies; indexing 74,000 scales from ~31,500 instruments in APA PsycTests. 🧵1/3
November 26, 2025 at 11:42 AM
🚨 SynthNet is out 🚨
Researchers propose new constructs and measures faster than anyone can track. We (@anniria.bsky.social @ruben.the100.ci) built a search engine to check what already exists and help identify redundancies; indexing 74,000 scales from ~31,500 instruments in APA PsycTests. 🧵1/3
Researchers propose new constructs and measures faster than anyone can track. We (@anniria.bsky.social @ruben.the100.ci) built a search engine to check what already exists and help identify redundancies; indexing 74,000 scales from ~31,500 instruments in APA PsycTests. 🧵1/3
Reposted by Emir Efendić
In light of record submission rates and a large volume of AI-generated slop, SocArXiv recently implemented a policy requiring ORCIDs linked in the OSF profile of submitting authors, and narrowing our focus to social science subjects. Today we are taking two more steps:
/1
/1
November 27, 2025 at 2:54 PM
In light of record submission rates and a large volume of AI-generated slop, SocArXiv recently implemented a policy requiring ORCIDs linked in the OSF profile of submitting authors, and narrowing our focus to social science subjects. Today we are taking two more steps:
/1
/1
I find this really interesting. Like many, I shared this paper because it appealed to an intuitive thinking: here's another critical look that debunks a psychology classic.
It also says something about our field that some ideas can be robust even if they initially just come from a story basically.
It also says something about our field that some ideas can be robust even if they initially just come from a story basically.
So, is "When Prophesy Fails"—the foundation of cognitive dissonance theory—debunked?
Unclear. The article making this claim is... odd.
It describes Festinger and Schachter as leftwing radicals, critiques the political slant of their funding, generally refers to their work as failed...
1/n
Unclear. The article making this claim is... odd.
It describes Festinger and Schachter as leftwing radicals, critiques the political slant of their funding, generally refers to their work as failed...
1/n
Wow - debunking “When Prophesy Fails” - the canonical foundation of cognitive dissonance theory onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
November 27, 2025 at 8:26 AM
I find this really interesting. Like many, I shared this paper because it appealed to an intuitive thinking: here's another critical look that debunks a psychology classic.
It also says something about our field that some ideas can be robust even if they initially just come from a story basically.
It also says something about our field that some ideas can be robust even if they initially just come from a story basically.
Reposted by Emir Efendić
If you want to submit your research to HotFresh Research News or find a boilerplate letter to refuse reviewing for closed journals, visit this link
learnmoore.org/hotfresh.html
learnmoore.org/hotfresh.html
November 23, 2025 at 6:38 PM
If you want to submit your research to HotFresh Research News or find a boilerplate letter to refuse reviewing for closed journals, visit this link
learnmoore.org/hotfresh.html
learnmoore.org/hotfresh.html