Elixir of Progress
@elucidating.extradimensional.space
They/them
Interests: Math. Engineering. Engineering Games. 3d printing and industrial design. Education.
Job: SRE at a tech company working on L7 Networking & Load Balancing.
Interests: Math. Engineering. Engineering Games. 3d printing and industrial design. Education.
Job: SRE at a tech company working on L7 Networking & Load Balancing.
Pinned
Here's my friend's "abiogenesis is impossible" model graphed out as a surface.
I had to tweak it a bit, note the years scale only goes up to 1e7, not 1e9, because with even just 40000-6000 sites we hit breakeven odds in less than 8 million years.
What can we conclude?
I had to tweak it a bit, note the years scale only goes up to 1e7, not 1e9, because with even just 40000-6000 sites we hit breakeven odds in less than 8 million years.
What can we conclude?
If you're curious how I made this graph, and how you can make your own, I've put the source code up. You can check it out here:
tangled.sh/@elucidating...
tangled.sh/@elucidating...
Like, a baofeng is still cheap if you need more.
February 13, 2026 at 12:59 AM
Like, a baofeng is still cheap if you need more.
Reposted by Elixir of Progress
Oh you mean the company funded by PETER THIEL?
February 12, 2026 at 9:06 PM
Oh you mean the company funded by PETER THIEL?
VHF radios are cheap and not hard to use. And you can use them to talk to people.
Need the 3d printed whistle equivalent of cheap fast mesh network nodes.
Or, you know. Talk to people.
Or, you know. Talk to people.
yeah, cutting off mobile and internet connectivity is now one of the very first moves that invading forces often make when they take over a city. (the invading forces then rely upon Starlink for their own purposes).
we recently saw the RSF do exactly this in El Fasher in Sudan.
we recently saw the RSF do exactly this in El Fasher in Sudan.
February 13, 2026 at 12:17 AM
VHF radios are cheap and not hard to use. And you can use them to talk to people.
Reposted by Elixir of Progress
elon understands grok to be primarily a political project, that is, concerned with the exercise of power and the promotion of ideology justifying the exercise of power
February 12, 2026 at 9:13 PM
elon understands grok to be primarily a political project, that is, concerned with the exercise of power and the promotion of ideology justifying the exercise of power
Reposted by Elixir of Progress
Reposted by Elixir of Progress
The volume & geographic distribution of protest nationwide during year 1 of Trump's second term was extraordinary.
February 12, 2026 at 6:19 PM
The volume & geographic distribution of protest nationwide during year 1 of Trump's second term was extraordinary.
Reposted by Elixir of Progress
(video here!)
Terence Tao: Why I Co-Founded SAIR
YouTube video by SAIR
youtu.be
February 12, 2026 at 5:45 PM
(video here!)
The precursor belief was "ReiserFS is okay free Hans" and then it was "suckless is good" and it turns out advocating for new things is hard so from there it was all "systemd is bad" and everything that's changed for the better in Linux since 2005 is actually a woke plot.
February 12, 2026 at 7:25 PM
The precursor belief was "ReiserFS is okay free Hans" and then it was "suckless is good" and it turns out advocating for new things is hard so from there it was all "systemd is bad" and everything that's changed for the better in Linux since 2005 is actually a woke plot.
You can tell this project is serious because they have the exact same code of conduct and points of contact as the mainline git project.
February 12, 2026 at 7:19 PM
You can tell this project is serious because they have the exact same code of conduct and points of contact as the mainline git project.
I think folks have just forgotten what a strange and monstrously graceful beast the JVM is.
February 12, 2026 at 6:25 PM
I think folks have just forgotten what a strange and monstrously graceful beast the JVM is.
It's genuinely difficult to imagine how you could make art cheaper than fiver does.
February 12, 2026 at 6:17 PM
It's genuinely difficult to imagine how you could make art cheaper than fiver does.
Reposted by Elixir of Progress
Another mismatch, AI companies didn't set out to disrupt artists the way artists felt like they did. They basically stumbled on image models as a research toy, and only invested in them heavily in the hopes they would improve models' reasoning as a side effect. Artists basically just caught a stray.
a lot of "AI hype" discourse makes more sense when you realize that a lot of initial LLM/GenAI hype envisioned replacing artists and PhDs, and its actual impacts have been much greater on coders and other tech workers
creatives/experts see "AI" as underperforming hype, techies see it overperforming
creatives/experts see "AI" as underperforming hype, techies see it overperforming
February 11, 2026 at 7:02 PM
Another mismatch, AI companies didn't set out to disrupt artists the way artists felt like they did. They basically stumbled on image models as a research toy, and only invested in them heavily in the hopes they would improve models' reasoning as a side effect. Artists basically just caught a stray.
If anything LLMs are becoming *more* reliant on high level programs and compilers. And it's just undeniable that for maximum performance, runtime optimizers are the *only* game in town now. None of these have any meaningful contributions from current or upcoming AI tech.
February 12, 2026 at 6:10 PM
If anything LLMs are becoming *more* reliant on high level programs and compilers. And it's just undeniable that for maximum performance, runtime optimizers are the *only* game in town now. None of these have any meaningful contributions from current or upcoming AI tech.
It makes me wonder if Elon's disassociation is escalating. He owns an AI company, surely they talk about this.
But given what I've heard from SpaceX, maybe this would make it worse?
But given what I've heard from SpaceX, maybe this would make it worse?
February 12, 2026 at 6:08 PM
It makes me wonder if Elon's disassociation is escalating. He owns an AI company, surely they talk about this.
But given what I've heard from SpaceX, maybe this would make it worse?
But given what I've heard from SpaceX, maybe this would make it worse?
The comparison here isn't very interesting. It's just a reality that Twitter is brain-drained and on life support.
What's fascinating is *how absurdly wrong* Musk is in his prediction here. It isn't even close, a full e^iπ off from the right direction. Even a wide-eyed AI proponent would know that.
What's fascinating is *how absurdly wrong* Musk is in his prediction here. It isn't even close, a full e^iπ off from the right direction. Even a wide-eyed AI proponent would know that.
Thought y’all would enjoy.
Yesterday over on x:
They removed dim mode because the overhead of CSS variables was too much
AI will skip coding and write binaries directly by end of year
Yesterday over on x:
They removed dim mode because the overhead of CSS variables was too much
AI will skip coding and write binaries directly by end of year
February 12, 2026 at 6:08 PM
The comparison here isn't very interesting. It's just a reality that Twitter is brain-drained and on life support.
What's fascinating is *how absurdly wrong* Musk is in his prediction here. It isn't even close, a full e^iπ off from the right direction. Even a wide-eyed AI proponent would know that.
What's fascinating is *how absurdly wrong* Musk is in his prediction here. It isn't even close, a full e^iπ off from the right direction. Even a wide-eyed AI proponent would know that.
"In Thielian Terms"
February 12, 2026 at 5:49 AM
"In Thielian Terms"
Like I assumed dummy asshole weirdos became flat earthers. But what if being a flat earther makes someone a dummy asshole weirdo because that's the only way to preserve the view?
February 12, 2026 at 5:08 AM
Like I assumed dummy asshole weirdos became flat earthers. But what if being a flat earther makes someone a dummy asshole weirdo because that's the only way to preserve the view?
The paper judiciously didn't try and paint an arrow of causality on this, but I admit I assumed it was the overconfidence that provoked the views.
But watching folks melt down over rising AI competence, even to the modest level it has, makes me wonder, could it be the other way around?
But watching folks melt down over rising AI competence, even to the modest level it has, makes me wonder, could it be the other way around?
February 12, 2026 at 5:07 AM
The paper judiciously didn't try and paint an arrow of causality on this, but I admit I assumed it was the overconfidence that provoked the views.
But watching folks melt down over rising AI competence, even to the modest level it has, makes me wonder, could it be the other way around?
But watching folks melt down over rising AI competence, even to the modest level it has, makes me wonder, could it be the other way around?
Last year there was an interesting paper about Dispositonal Overconfidence and how people sampled with opinions extremely discordant with reality tended to radically overestimate how many people around them agreed with them. The more extreme, the greater the overestimate iirc.
February 12, 2026 at 5:07 AM
Last year there was an interesting paper about Dispositonal Overconfidence and how people sampled with opinions extremely discordant with reality tended to radically overestimate how many people around them agreed with them. The more extreme, the greater the overestimate iirc.
Reposted by Elixir of Progress
I'm a Gallup pollster. You can contact them at galluppanel@gallupmail.com to let them know what you think of this.
February 11, 2026 at 8:14 PM
I'm a Gallup pollster. You can contact them at galluppanel@gallupmail.com to let them know what you think of this.
Reposted by Elixir of Progress
Gallup will no longer measure presidential approval after 88 years thehill.com/homenews/med...
February 11, 2026 at 7:12 PM
Gallup will no longer measure presidential approval after 88 years thehill.com/homenews/med...
I'm just worried about that post.
February 12, 2026 at 4:52 AM
I'm just worried about that post.
The ONLY one of these I've seen that was good was the dragonball budokai remake, but I think that works because the genre is defined by its shortcomings.
February 12, 2026 at 3:09 AM
The ONLY one of these I've seen that was good was the dragonball budokai remake, but I think that works because the genre is defined by its shortcomings.
Maybe the reason it's bad is because Tom Cruise has never done a good fight scene in his entire career. 🤔
February 12, 2026 at 3:09 AM
Maybe the reason it's bad is because Tom Cruise has never done a good fight scene in his entire career. 🤔
Look I'll be the one to say it: this fight scene is atrocious.
‘Deadpool & Wolverine’ writer Rhett Reese reacts to viral AI video of Tom Cruise and Brad Pitt fighting:
“I hate to say it. It’s likely over for us.”
“I hate to say it. It’s likely over for us.”
February 12, 2026 at 3:05 AM
Look I'll be the one to say it: this fight scene is atrocious.