Ehud Karavani
@ehudk.bsky.social
Research Staff Member at IBM Research.
Causal Inference 🔴→🟠←🟡.
Machine Learning 🤖🎓.
Data Communication 📈.
Healthcare ⚕️.
Creator of 𝙲𝚊𝚞𝚜𝚊𝚕𝚕𝚒𝚋: https://github.com/IBM/causallib
Website: https://ehud.co
Causal Inference 🔴→🟠←🟡.
Machine Learning 🤖🎓.
Data Communication 📈.
Healthcare ⚕️.
Creator of 𝙲𝚊𝚞𝚜𝚊𝚕𝚕𝚒𝚋: https://github.com/IBM/causallib
Website: https://ehud.co
2/3 of the breakthroughs are by Terry Tao's former students. Not to take any credit from their successes, but his contribution to our collective knowledge is truly immeasurable.
It was a big year for mathematics. youtu.be/hRpcWpAeWng
The Biggest Breakthroughs in Mathematics: 2025
YouTube video by Quanta Magazine
youtu.be
December 30, 2025 at 9:49 AM
2/3 of the breakthroughs are by Terry Tao's former students. Not to take any credit from their successes, but his contribution to our collective knowledge is truly immeasurable.
I sometime wonder how bad is the replication crisis in top AI conferences. I bet >50% of results cannot be reproduced and >80% will not withstand the slightest change in input data.
People give psychologists the shit about their shitty research, but at least they cared enough to actually check.
People give psychologists the shit about their shitty research, but at least they cared enough to actually check.
December 19, 2025 at 10:16 PM
I sometime wonder how bad is the replication crisis in top AI conferences. I bet >50% of results cannot be reproduced and >80% will not withstand the slightest change in input data.
People give psychologists the shit about their shitty research, but at least they cared enough to actually check.
People give psychologists the shit about their shitty research, but at least they cared enough to actually check.
Every year I fulfill the wishes of one editor whose been good this year, and I accept an article to review in the middle of December 🧑🎄🎄😇
December 10, 2025 at 8:48 AM
Every year I fulfill the wishes of one editor whose been good this year, and I accept an article to review in the middle of December 🧑🎄🎄😇
I'm confused. How do we settle this with the common early stopping criteria for futility/efficacy when enough posterior mass is beyond some ROPE thresholds
(e.g., futility of Pr[θ<0.1]>0.9 or efficacy of Pr[θ>0]>0.95)
a-la www.fharrell.com/post/bayes-s...
(e.g., futility of Pr[θ<0.1]>0.9 or efficacy of Pr[θ>0]>0.95)
a-la www.fharrell.com/post/bayes-s...
December 5, 2025 at 8:50 PM
I'm confused. How do we settle this with the common early stopping criteria for futility/efficacy when enough posterior mass is beyond some ROPE thresholds
(e.g., futility of Pr[θ<0.1]>0.9 or efficacy of Pr[θ>0]>0.95)
a-la www.fharrell.com/post/bayes-s...
(e.g., futility of Pr[θ<0.1]>0.9 or efficacy of Pr[θ>0]>0.95)
a-la www.fharrell.com/post/bayes-s...
Abelian Group has left the conversation
November 26, 2025 at 1:37 PM
Abelian Group has left the conversation
Reposted by Ehud Karavani
November 18, 2025 at 6:57 PM
Reposted by Ehud Karavani
Rubin's gonna Rubin, but Robins Rubins harder.
November 8, 2025 at 2:08 PM
Rubin's gonna Rubin, but Robins Rubins harder.
babe, wake up, new sewer manhole cover shape just dropped
This is the Noperthedron. A portmanteau of “nope” and “Rupert,” it is the only known shape that does not have a trait called Rupert’s property. No matter how you bore a straight tunnel through it, a second Noperthedron cannot fit through. www.quantamagazine.org/first-shape-...
November 4, 2025 at 1:35 PM
babe, wake up, new sewer manhole cover shape just dropped
Why would you send me an invite to review a manuscript with a 3-day expiration link over the weekend, Taylor & Francis?
October 16, 2025 at 6:50 AM
Why would you send me an invite to review a manuscript with a 3-day expiration link over the weekend, Taylor & Francis?
Reposted by Ehud Karavani
Launch day 🚀
We’ve just released @chartlecc.bsky.social - a daily chart game!
Your job is to guess which country is represented by the red line in today's chart. You get 5 tries, no other clues!
Play today, come back tomorrow for a different chart with new data and share with your chart friends 📈
We’ve just released @chartlecc.bsky.social - a daily chart game!
Your job is to guess which country is represented by the red line in today's chart. You get 5 tries, no other clues!
Play today, come back tomorrow for a different chart with new data and share with your chart friends 📈
Chartle - A daily chart game
Guess the country in red by analysing today's chart
chartle.cc
September 12, 2025 at 1:41 PM
Launch day 🚀
We’ve just released @chartlecc.bsky.social - a daily chart game!
Your job is to guess which country is represented by the red line in today's chart. You get 5 tries, no other clues!
Play today, come back tomorrow for a different chart with new data and share with your chart friends 📈
We’ve just released @chartlecc.bsky.social - a daily chart game!
Your job is to guess which country is represented by the red line in today's chart. You get 5 tries, no other clues!
Play today, come back tomorrow for a different chart with new data and share with your chart friends 📈
The Matrix, but the Machines are RNA and the protagonist is a protein realizing his kind has been enslaved to maintain RNAs while being fooled to believe they're the ones who matter most. He then undergoes chemical post-translational modifications to become an RNase, vowing to chew up his oppressors
October 10, 2025 at 5:55 PM
The Matrix, but the Machines are RNA and the protagonist is a protein realizing his kind has been enslaved to maintain RNAs while being fooled to believe they're the ones who matter most. He then undergoes chemical post-translational modifications to become an RNase, vowing to chew up his oppressors
when we were working on the polygenic scores-based embryo selection paper, i had a classmate (unrelatedly) working on computer vision methods for morphological-based prediction of embryo implantation chances (in cows). 1/2
August 10, 2025 at 5:43 PM
when we were working on the polygenic scores-based embryo selection paper, i had a classmate (unrelatedly) working on computer vision methods for morphological-based prediction of embryo implantation chances (in cows). 1/2
ACM going full Open Access is good news to start the morning with. I just wonder where the catch is.
July 30, 2025 at 6:06 AM
ACM going full Open Access is good news to start the morning with. I just wonder where the catch is.
just got turned down by a potential employer citing my solution to analyze experiments with a *generalized* linear models was not general enough 😑
if you disagree, please consider hiring me.
if you disagree, please consider hiring me.
June 10, 2025 at 10:36 AM
just got turned down by a potential employer citing my solution to analyze experiments with a *generalized* linear models was not general enough 😑
if you disagree, please consider hiring me.
if you disagree, please consider hiring me.
Reposted by Ehud Karavani
🚨 Call for Papers: Causal Data Science Meeting 2025
📅 November 12–13, 2025 (Virtual)
📥 Submit by Sept 30: submission@causalscience.org
🎙️ Keynote: Stefan Feuerriegel (LMU Munich)
🌐 More Info and registration: causalscience.org
#CausalML #AI #DataScience #CDSM2025 #CanIPetThatDAG
📅 November 12–13, 2025 (Virtual)
📥 Submit by Sept 30: submission@causalscience.org
🎙️ Keynote: Stefan Feuerriegel (LMU Munich)
🌐 More Info and registration: causalscience.org
#CausalML #AI #DataScience #CDSM2025 #CanIPetThatDAG
June 6, 2025 at 1:54 PM
🚨 Call for Papers: Causal Data Science Meeting 2025
📅 November 12–13, 2025 (Virtual)
📥 Submit by Sept 30: submission@causalscience.org
🎙️ Keynote: Stefan Feuerriegel (LMU Munich)
🌐 More Info and registration: causalscience.org
#CausalML #AI #DataScience #CDSM2025 #CanIPetThatDAG
📅 November 12–13, 2025 (Virtual)
📥 Submit by Sept 30: submission@causalscience.org
🎙️ Keynote: Stefan Feuerriegel (LMU Munich)
🌐 More Info and registration: causalscience.org
#CausalML #AI #DataScience #CDSM2025 #CanIPetThatDAG
Reposted by Ehud Karavani
Starting to look like I might not be able to work at Harvard anymore due to recent funding cuts. If you know of any open statistical consulting positions that support remote work or are NYC-based, please reach out! 😅
June 4, 2025 at 7:02 PM
Starting to look like I might not be able to work at Harvard anymore due to recent funding cuts. If you know of any open statistical consulting positions that support remote work or are NYC-based, please reach out! 😅
starting on quantum computing, and now I cannot unsee brakets over Bell states everywhere I go.
April 23, 2025 at 3:04 PM
starting on quantum computing, and now I cannot unsee brakets over Bell states everywhere I go.
My minor design critique is that all Bayesian software seem to have an explicit separation between prior and posterior predictives, instead of just providing a "predictive checks" function, and if it's called before the model saw any data then that's "prior" and if it's after then it's "posterior"
Fucking wild that people are still making Bayesian software in 2025 where prior predictive checking isn't included as "standard" functionality
April 15, 2025 at 5:26 PM
My minor design critique is that all Bayesian software seem to have an explicit separation between prior and posterior predictives, instead of just providing a "predictive checks" function, and if it's called before the model saw any data then that's "prior" and if it's after then it's "posterior"
putting down my youngest in her crib, sleeping, and i can't shake off the thought that's must be the source for why so many adults worldwide commonly dream they are falling.
March 19, 2025 at 7:10 PM
putting down my youngest in her crib, sleeping, and i can't shake off the thought that's must be the source for why so many adults worldwide commonly dream they are falling.
The problem of fraud in science is its cumulative effect - you could either stand on the shoulders of giants or in the pit they have dug for you
March 13, 2025 at 3:48 PM
The problem of fraud in science is its cumulative effect - you could either stand on the shoulders of giants or in the pit they have dug for you
Reposted by Ehud Karavani
see, this plane got measles and was perfectly fine
March 12, 2025 at 5:12 PM
see, this plane got measles and was perfectly fine
What if we use LLMs not to construct a causal graph for us using their "knowledge", but as a companion helping an expert to tease out a DAG through conversation?
February 18, 2025 at 7:38 AM
What if we use LLMs not to construct a causal graph for us using their "knowledge", but as a companion helping an expert to tease out a DAG through conversation?
after the "delve" paper about LLMs usage in academic writing, i conjectured a similar phenomena will appear in reference/recommendation letters with "acumen" but didn't have the data to prove it on scale
February 9, 2025 at 9:34 PM
after the "delve" paper about LLMs usage in academic writing, i conjectured a similar phenomena will appear in reference/recommendation letters with "acumen" but didn't have the data to prove it on scale
now I'm feeling like a sucker for making this absolutely stunning piece of graphical abstract last week
February 4, 2025 at 1:58 PM
now I'm feeling like a sucker for making this absolutely stunning piece of graphical abstract last week
February 4, 2025 at 10:21 AM