Jordan Nafa
@ajordannafa.com
Bayesian Statistician and Data Scientist in the Gaming/Entertainment Industry | Bayesian Statistics, Causal Inference, R, Python, Stan, Decision Theory, Guitar | Former Political Scientist
Pinned
If you find yourself saying "Hey, I have more in common with Will Stancil, Sky Marchini, and Bill Kristol than random anonymous online leftists who make this site hell," congratulations you're a normie by bluesky standards.
"This is an assumption that is never quite true" is such a creative way of saying your key identifying assumption is generally wrong
January 9, 2026 at 5:03 AM
"This is an assumption that is never quite true" is such a creative way of saying your key identifying assumption is generally wrong
The chances the tarrifs get struck down seem pretty high based on how hostile even the conservatives on the court were during oral arguments. If it goes the other way though, it may be the spark that finally tanks the economy because investors will no longer be able to hand waive the tarrifs
btw tomorrow is jobs day and the first day we could possibly get a SCOTUS ruling on Trump's tariffs, in case you thought there wasn't enough news recently
January 9, 2026 at 1:34 AM
The chances the tarrifs get struck down seem pretty high based on how hostile even the conservatives on the court were during oral arguments. If it goes the other way though, it may be the spark that finally tanks the economy because investors will no longer be able to hand waive the tarrifs
Reposted by Jordan Nafa
States can create citizen militias independent of the National Guard. I’d like to see governors and state legislators think creatively about that power when it comes to monitoring federal agents operating in their state, particularly if they don’t trust police forces to do so.
January 8, 2026 at 4:19 AM
States can create citizen militias independent of the National Guard. I’d like to see governors and state legislators think creatively about that power when it comes to monitoring federal agents operating in their state, particularly if they don’t trust police forces to do so.
I don't live in fear of an LLM taking my job because my job is designing complex, scalable systems based on Bayesian decision theory and I don't write Javascript or do descriptive analysis for a living. What "AI" has done for me is make a lot of my coding work much more efficient and robust.
January 8, 2026 at 4:18 AM
I don't live in fear of an LLM taking my job because my job is designing complex, scalable systems based on Bayesian decision theory and I don't write Javascript or do descriptive analysis for a living. What "AI" has done for me is make a lot of my coding work much more efficient and robust.
Spent this evening putting some finishing touches on custok DLC charts for a couple songs I've been working on for a few weeks and as much as I love punk rock, dear god the tempo drift in some if these is annoying
January 8, 2026 at 3:14 AM
Spent this evening putting some finishing touches on custok DLC charts for a couple songs I've been working on for a few weeks and as much as I love punk rock, dear god the tempo drift in some if these is annoying
Reposted by Jordan Nafa
The “prosecute the former regime at every level” candidate has my vote in 2028.
January 7, 2026 at 8:26 PM
The “prosecute the former regime at every level” candidate has my vote in 2028.
It's just kind of difficult to understate that in the absence of a shit ton of people going to jail and major institutional reform in 2029, the U.S. is completely fucked. Like, "these things have to happen or the country has no future" levels of fucked.
January 7, 2026 at 8:56 AM
It's just kind of difficult to understate that in the absence of a shit ton of people going to jail and major institutional reform in 2029, the U.S. is completely fucked. Like, "these things have to happen or the country has no future" levels of fucked.
If annexing Greenland plays out as the bloodless fait accompli the Trump administration hopes it will, there's a non-zero chance that emboldens them to make a move towards Canada or Mexico before the end of his term.
January 7, 2026 at 7:15 AM
If annexing Greenland plays out as the bloodless fait accompli the Trump administration hopes it will, there's a non-zero chance that emboldens them to make a move towards Canada or Mexico before the end of his term.
The way the U.S. system of government functions de facto is best summarized as "the president can do whatever he wants until someone with the power to stop him tells him he can't and he choses to back down." It's wild that people still don't fully understand this. Article II was a mistake.
January 7, 2026 at 6:55 AM
The way the U.S. system of government functions de facto is best summarized as "the president can do whatever he wants until someone with the power to stop him tells him he can't and he choses to back down." It's wild that people still don't fully understand this. Article II was a mistake.
Reposted by Jordan Nafa
Reposted by Jordan Nafa
It should be a stark reminder that a mere restoration of the deeply insufficient status quo ante will not be enough. If the devastations wrought by Trumpism in power are followed yet again by a failure to hold anyone to account and pretensions of returning to “normalcy,” democracy cannot survive.
January 6, 2026 at 7:53 PM
It should be a stark reminder that a mere restoration of the deeply insufficient status quo ante will not be enough. If the devastations wrought by Trumpism in power are followed yet again by a failure to hold anyone to account and pretensions of returning to “normalcy,” democracy cannot survive.
I am once again begging people to possess a minimum understanding of how federal tax collection *actually works in practice* before touting ideas for which there is no practical mechanism for implementing
This is why I’m pushing for a state escrow account that holds federal funds before sending them on to Washington. If Trump wants to steal our tax dollars that were legally appropriated by Congress, then we should just be paying ourselves.
“Minnesota, New York, California, Illinois and Colorado will be cut off from around $7 billion in funding for the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program, which provides cash assistance to households with children, according to two people familiar with the matter.”
Monstrously cruel.
Monstrously cruel.
January 6, 2026 at 5:15 PM
I am once again begging people to possess a minimum understanding of how federal tax collection *actually works in practice* before touting ideas for which there is no practical mechanism for implementing
If we're being honest, the best time for Canada and Mexico to start actively working on enriching weapons grade uranium was probably ~2016. The second best time is now.
January 6, 2026 at 4:29 AM
If we're being honest, the best time for Canada and Mexico to start actively working on enriching weapons grade uranium was probably ~2016. The second best time is now.
Two things can be true. One one hand, removing Maduro by force was probably categorically a good thing. On the other, the way it was done--as a unilateral move by the U.S. without any effort to build a coalition around regional interests or any clear plan for improving Venezuela, is bad and stupid.
January 5, 2026 at 11:26 PM
Two things can be true. One one hand, removing Maduro by force was probably categorically a good thing. On the other, the way it was done--as a unilateral move by the U.S. without any effort to build a coalition around regional interests or any clear plan for improving Venezuela, is bad and stupid.
A lot of this site's problem is that it has become less of an alternative to X and more of an alternative to Tumblr, and as bad as X is, it beats Tumblr pretty much any day of the week.
This post is getting a lot of “but I shouldn’t have to choose because X is so bad” QTs and on a normative level it’s hard to disagree but on a practical one you kinda do. Dictating some kind of code of conduct would be insane and I’m not trying to do that, but it is a choice you are making.
Yeah again, not telling you how to post but the number of people I see both enthusiastically celebrating “running off” someone and decrying people still being on X is not zero. You gotta choose guys!
January 5, 2026 at 8:01 PM
A lot of this site's problem is that it has become less of an alternative to X and more of an alternative to Tumblr, and as bad as X is, it beats Tumblr pretty much any day of the week.
The incels being so unlovable that even the sex robots find them repulsive is kind of poetic
Imagine being so based even your AI girlfriend breaks up with you over it
January 5, 2026 at 9:30 AM
The incels being so unlovable that even the sex robots find them repulsive is kind of poetic
I'm not saying this is the time for the rest of the civilized world to give some serious thought to forming a united coalition and undertaking some good old fashioned nation-building in the U.S., but we're still less than 25% of the way through Trump's second term 😬
January 5, 2026 at 6:32 AM
I'm not saying this is the time for the rest of the civilized world to give some serious thought to forming a united coalition and undertaking some good old fashioned nation-building in the U.S., but we're still less than 25% of the way through Trump's second term 😬
Reposted by Jordan Nafa
If you find yourself saying "Hey, I have more in common with Will Stancil, Sky Marchini, and Bill Kristol than random anonymous online leftists who make this site hell," congratulations you're a normie by bluesky standards.
January 5, 2026 at 4:05 AM
If you find yourself saying "Hey, I have more in common with Will Stancil, Sky Marchini, and Bill Kristol than random anonymous online leftists who make this site hell," congratulations you're a normie by bluesky standards.
There is a faction of the online left, as clearly evidenced in Sky's QTs over the last 24 hours that is functionally indistinguishable from the worst of the Nazis on the far right. Like just absolute trash people for whom any civilized or rationale discussion based on evidence is a non-starter.
January 5, 2026 at 3:49 AM
There is a faction of the online left, as clearly evidenced in Sky's QTs over the last 24 hours that is functionally indistinguishable from the worst of the Nazis on the far right. Like just absolute trash people for whom any civilized or rationale discussion based on evidence is a non-starter.
Reposted by Jordan Nafa
Any paper under review where the authors refuse a request for the code should be an automatic reject
January 4, 2026 at 9:56 PM
Any paper under review where the authors refuse a request for the code should be an automatic reject
Has anyone made one of those moderation lists for mass blocking incompetent leftist randos with anime profile pictures? Seems like a thing that would be really useful
January 4, 2026 at 9:08 PM
Has anyone made one of those moderation lists for mass blocking incompetent leftist randos with anime profile pictures? Seems like a thing that would be really useful
Assassinating Maduro is functionally what they've done, which I guess raises the question is the plan to just keep assassinating each of his successors until someone willing to bow to U.S. policy interests and be a puppet steps up to bat? It's a very Stalin-esque approach to foreign policy
Of course, "do the thing in the worst, dumbest way imaginable" is nothing new for Trump but I'm still kind of shocked they managed to find an approach that is on its face even stupider than just assassinating Maduro outright.
January 4, 2026 at 4:25 PM
FML. Doing some minor upgrades to one of my custom loops and 12mm fittings have doubled in price since I last had to buy them in 2021 (pictured cost is for a single pack of four)
January 4, 2026 at 6:48 AM
FML. Doing some minor upgrades to one of my custom loops and 12mm fittings have doubled in price since I last had to buy them in 2021 (pictured cost is for a single pack of four)
My relatives felt the same when a U.S.-led coalition deposed Qaddafi in late 2011 and yet a decade and a half later most of them now agree that was probably a stupid move. Deposing a dictator without a carefully laid plan for what comes next is seldom a move worth celebrating
Across the U.S., Venezuelans gathered in major cities to celebrate and cautiously muse with relatives back home about what comes next after U.S. forces swept the South American president out of the country on drug-trafficking charges.
In exile, Venezuelans greet Maduro’s fall with joy — and fear of what comes next
Venezuelans in the Miami suburb of Doral took to the streets in celebration after learning that the U.S. had struck their homeland and removed Nicolás Maduro.
www.washingtonpost.com
January 4, 2026 at 6:29 AM
My relatives felt the same when a U.S.-led coalition deposed Qaddafi in late 2011 and yet a decade and a half later most of them now agree that was probably a stupid move. Deposing a dictator without a carefully laid plan for what comes next is seldom a move worth celebrating