David Sterman
@davidsterman.bsky.social
Deputy Director, New America Future Security program
Pinned
David Sterman
@davidsterman.bsky.social
· Jul 24
The Escalation of U.S. Airstrikes in Somalia and the Role of Perceived Threats to the U.S. Homeland - Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract: In 2025, the United States substantially increased the pace of its airstrikes in Somalia. At the same time, it increasingly cited not just regional security rationales for the increased pace...
ctc.westpoint.edu
My latest on the escalation of U.S. strikes in Somalia and its interaction with rising perceptions of the threat from jihadist groups in Somalia including to the U.S. homeland.
ctc.westpoint.edu/the-escalati...
ctc.westpoint.edu/the-escalati...
Think this is right but not sure I’d trace it as far back as this thread does.
Enormous issues with this stuff in the early WoT.
Operational success of something like this is imo very much a product of 25 years of war and the adaptations it brought.
Enormous issues with this stuff in the early WoT.
Operational success of something like this is imo very much a product of 25 years of war and the adaptations it brought.
one thing i think lib-of-center posters tend to underrate is that, even when led at the top by absolute morons, the american military tends to be extremely tactically competent
totally unclear what the strategic results of midnight hammer are, but on an operational level it came off flawlessly
totally unclear what the strategic results of midnight hammer are, but on an operational level it came off flawlessly
russian war bloggers on telegram are very mad right now, but I suspect it's mostly because russia tried to do the exact same thing in the opening phase of the invasion (see Battle of Hostomel Airport) and failed miserably
January 3, 2026 at 6:39 PM
Think this is right but not sure I’d trace it as far back as this thread does.
Enormous issues with this stuff in the early WoT.
Operational success of something like this is imo very much a product of 25 years of war and the adaptations it brought.
Enormous issues with this stuff in the early WoT.
Operational success of something like this is imo very much a product of 25 years of war and the adaptations it brought.
Reposted by David Sterman
Reposted by David Sterman
APNewsAlert: CARACAS, #Venezuela (AP) — No visible signs yet that US is running Venezuela after Trump claims, as country's security forces control key sites.
January 3, 2026 at 5:04 PM
APNewsAlert: CARACAS, #Venezuela (AP) — No visible signs yet that US is running Venezuela after Trump claims, as country's security forces control key sites.
Reposted by David Sterman
How many people were killed in Venezuela last night by the U.S. military? We need to know.
January 3, 2026 at 4:50 PM
How many people were killed in Venezuela last night by the U.S. military? We need to know.
Reposted by David Sterman
The US is going to “run” Venezuela? How? It is a country of 30M people, comparable to Iraqi population in 2003, and the one thing Trump hasn’t done is build up large-scale ground forces in the region needed for occupation.
January 3, 2026 at 5:01 PM
The US is going to “run” Venezuela? How? It is a country of 30M people, comparable to Iraqi population in 2003, and the one thing Trump hasn’t done is build up large-scale ground forces in the region needed for occupation.
Reposted by David Sterman
How? There are no troops there, no administrators, no nothing.
TRUMP on Venezuela: "We're going to run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition."
January 3, 2026 at 4:49 PM
How? There are no troops there, no administrators, no nothing.
Reposted by David Sterman
Donald Trump’s reckless and unconstitutional operations in Venezuela—including this morning’s arrest of a foreign leader—are not about enforcing law and order.
If they were, he wouldn’t hide them from Congress.
If they were, he wouldn’t hide them from Congress.
January 3, 2026 at 4:33 PM
Donald Trump’s reckless and unconstitutional operations in Venezuela—including this morning’s arrest of a foreign leader—are not about enforcing law and order.
If they were, he wouldn’t hide them from Congress.
If they were, he wouldn’t hide them from Congress.
House margin on war powers before this re land strikes was 213-211. And those who focused on it provided early warning.
But sure take advice from folks with blogs/columns to push about how the wise political move is to ignore authorization issues.
theintercept.com/2025/12/17/v...
But sure take advice from folks with blogs/columns to push about how the wise political move is to ignore authorization issues.
theintercept.com/2025/12/17/v...
Congress Squanders Last Chance to Block Venezuela War Before Going on Vacation
With strikes looming, Congress squandered its last chance to block a regime-change war against Venezuela before going on vacation.
theintercept.com
January 3, 2026 at 4:00 PM
House margin on war powers before this re land strikes was 213-211. And those who focused on it provided early warning.
But sure take advice from folks with blogs/columns to push about how the wise political move is to ignore authorization issues.
theintercept.com/2025/12/17/v...
But sure take advice from folks with blogs/columns to push about how the wise political move is to ignore authorization issues.
theintercept.com/2025/12/17/v...
My perhaps unpopular view is it’s ok if folks want to note that Maduro is bad while criticizing the operation.
I also think the omertà for domestic political reasons is bad, prevents certain folks from joining criticism, and can obscure context that will be important historically and for future.
I also think the omertà for domestic political reasons is bad, prevents certain folks from joining criticism, and can obscure context that will be important historically and for future.
January 3, 2026 at 2:49 PM
My perhaps unpopular view is it’s ok if folks want to note that Maduro is bad while criticizing the operation.
I also think the omertà for domestic political reasons is bad, prevents certain folks from joining criticism, and can obscure context that will be important historically and for future.
I also think the omertà for domestic political reasons is bad, prevents certain folks from joining criticism, and can obscure context that will be important historically and for future.
Reposted by David Sterman
Take the politics of Congressional authorization and Congress punting on it seriously.
Don’t take seriously analysts/lawyers/activists who reduce these questions to minor issues that should be put aside to only focus on qs of wisdom/policy.
theintercept.com/2025/12/17/v...
Don’t take seriously analysts/lawyers/activists who reduce these questions to minor issues that should be put aside to only focus on qs of wisdom/policy.
theintercept.com/2025/12/17/v...
Congress Squanders Last Chance to Block Venezuela War Before Going on Vacation
With strikes looming, Congress squandered its last chance to block a regime-change war against Venezuela before going on vacation.
theintercept.com
January 3, 2026 at 12:07 PM
Take the politics of Congressional authorization and Congress punting on it seriously.
Don’t take seriously analysts/lawyers/activists who reduce these questions to minor issues that should be put aside to only focus on qs of wisdom/policy.
theintercept.com/2025/12/17/v...
Don’t take seriously analysts/lawyers/activists who reduce these questions to minor issues that should be put aside to only focus on qs of wisdom/policy.
theintercept.com/2025/12/17/v...
Think folks got too invested in critiques of expansive objectives / failed to see risks of endlessness from unclear objectives and other causes.
In my report on Yemen, I argued that there were multiple types of endlessness.
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
In my report on Yemen, I argued that there were multiple types of endlessness.
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
January 3, 2026 at 2:12 PM
Think folks got too invested in critiques of expansive objectives / failed to see risks of endlessness from unclear objectives and other causes.
In my report on Yemen, I argued that there were multiple types of endlessness.
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
In my report on Yemen, I argued that there were multiple types of endlessness.
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
Reposted by David Sterman
"But Wiles conceded that attacking targets on Venezuela’s mainland would force Trump to get congressional approval. 'If he were to authorize some activity on land, then it’s war, then [we’d need] Congress.'"
- WH Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, Nov 2, 2025 interview
www.vanityfair.com/news/story/t...
- WH Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, Nov 2, 2025 interview
www.vanityfair.com/news/story/t...
Trump’s Inner Circle, On the Record (Part 2 of 2)
Susie Wiles discusses the Epstein files, Pete Hegseth’s war tactics, and “retribution” against Letitia James.
www.vanityfair.com
January 3, 2026 at 1:35 PM
"But Wiles conceded that attacking targets on Venezuela’s mainland would force Trump to get congressional approval. 'If he were to authorize some activity on land, then it’s war, then [we’d need] Congress.'"
- WH Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, Nov 2, 2025 interview
www.vanityfair.com/news/story/t...
- WH Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, Nov 2, 2025 interview
www.vanityfair.com/news/story/t...
Not sure the combination of the means used here and the state of DOJ professionally at this moment and it’s recent record on high profile cases are going to make a trial here conducive for whatever political or security payoff the admin thinks it’s getting.
January 3, 2026 at 1:22 PM
Not sure the combination of the means used here and the state of DOJ professionally at this moment and it’s recent record on high profile cases are going to make a trial here conducive for whatever political or security payoff the admin thinks it’s getting.
This is bad.
A) authorization is not sub-constitutional or a technicality. Treating it as such is how we get here.
B) folks acting like paying attention to these was not tied to rather significant/timely warnings / action moments.
theintercept.com/2025/12/17/v...
A) authorization is not sub-constitutional or a technicality. Treating it as such is how we get here.
B) folks acting like paying attention to these was not tied to rather significant/timely warnings / action moments.
theintercept.com/2025/12/17/v...
January 3, 2026 at 12:15 PM
This is bad.
A) authorization is not sub-constitutional or a technicality. Treating it as such is how we get here.
B) folks acting like paying attention to these was not tied to rather significant/timely warnings / action moments.
theintercept.com/2025/12/17/v...
A) authorization is not sub-constitutional or a technicality. Treating it as such is how we get here.
B) folks acting like paying attention to these was not tied to rather significant/timely warnings / action moments.
theintercept.com/2025/12/17/v...
Take the politics of Congressional authorization and Congress punting on it seriously.
Don’t take seriously analysts/lawyers/activists who reduce these questions to minor issues that should be put aside to only focus on qs of wisdom/policy.
theintercept.com/2025/12/17/v...
Don’t take seriously analysts/lawyers/activists who reduce these questions to minor issues that should be put aside to only focus on qs of wisdom/policy.
theintercept.com/2025/12/17/v...
Congress Squanders Last Chance to Block Venezuela War Before Going on Vacation
With strikes looming, Congress squandered its last chance to block a regime-change war against Venezuela before going on vacation.
theintercept.com
January 3, 2026 at 12:07 PM
Take the politics of Congressional authorization and Congress punting on it seriously.
Don’t take seriously analysts/lawyers/activists who reduce these questions to minor issues that should be put aside to only focus on qs of wisdom/policy.
theintercept.com/2025/12/17/v...
Don’t take seriously analysts/lawyers/activists who reduce these questions to minor issues that should be put aside to only focus on qs of wisdom/policy.
theintercept.com/2025/12/17/v...
Whiplash of certain folks going from don’t focus on AUMF/process qs to don’t note Maduro’s authoritarianism because not relevant to prior process qs.
January 3, 2026 at 11:19 AM
Whiplash of certain folks going from don’t focus on AUMF/process qs to don’t note Maduro’s authoritarianism because not relevant to prior process qs.
Reposted by David Sterman
I’ve long maintained that it was a mistake for Congress to have abolished itself.
January 3, 2026 at 10:57 AM
I’ve long maintained that it was a mistake for Congress to have abolished itself.
Reposted by David Sterman
A US president uses his for-profit (but money losing) social media site to announce a military strike against a foreign sovereign nation and the seizure by military force of a foreign government leader. Says a lot about where things are at in the US in 2026.
January 3, 2026 at 10:22 AM
A US president uses his for-profit (but money losing) social media site to announce a military strike against a foreign sovereign nation and the seizure by military force of a foreign government leader. Says a lot about where things are at in the US in 2026.
Hope those who dismissed the role of process and authorizations for force leftishly or restraint-ily (to focus only on wisdom/ethics/efficacy qs) are proud of themselves today.
January 3, 2026 at 8:48 AM
Hope those who dismissed the role of process and authorizations for force leftishly or restraint-ily (to focus only on wisdom/ethics/efficacy qs) are proud of themselves today.
Sorry can’t do the very important not congressionally authorized war on Venezuela because too busy conducting spur of the moment strikes in Nigeria.
Absolutely out of control. Where is Congress?
Absolutely out of control. Where is Congress?
#BREAKING from me and Jennifer Jacobs - additional reporting on the strikes in Venezuela.
January 3, 2026 at 8:37 AM
Sorry can’t do the very important not congressionally authorized war on Venezuela because too busy conducting spur of the moment strikes in Nigeria.
Absolutely out of control. Where is Congress?
Absolutely out of control. Where is Congress?
Reposted by David Sterman
More escalation in Yemen today, with reports of airstrikes amidst clashes between (Saudi-backed) National Shield forces and (UAE-backed) STC-aligned fighters in Hadramawt.
January 2, 2026 at 9:54 AM
More escalation in Yemen today, with reports of airstrikes amidst clashes between (Saudi-backed) National Shield forces and (UAE-backed) STC-aligned fighters in Hadramawt.
Reposted by David Sterman
Not planning to do an overall year wrap up but do want to share some work on US strikes in Somalia over the year.
By our tracking (not yet updated for holiday strikes), it is the peak of the campaign and may surpass the peak of strikes in Pakistan.
1/7
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
By our tracking (not yet updated for holiday strikes), it is the peak of the campaign and may surpass the peak of strikes in Pakistan.
1/7
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
December 30, 2025 at 1:18 PM
Not planning to do an overall year wrap up but do want to share some work on US strikes in Somalia over the year.
By our tracking (not yet updated for holiday strikes), it is the peak of the campaign and may surpass the peak of strikes in Pakistan.
1/7
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
By our tracking (not yet updated for holiday strikes), it is the peak of the campaign and may surpass the peak of strikes in Pakistan.
1/7
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
Reposted by David Sterman
High-level Department of Justice officials pushed to prosecute Kilmar Abrego Garcia after he fought a deportation error, judge’s order says.
DOJ pushed to prosecute Kilmar Abrego Garcia only after mistaken deportation, judge's order says
A newly unsealed order in the criminal case against Kilmar Abrego Garcia reveals that high level Justice Department officials pushed for his indictment only after he was mistakenly deported and then ordered returned to the U.S.
bit.ly
December 30, 2025 at 7:31 PM
High-level Department of Justice officials pushed to prosecute Kilmar Abrego Garcia after he fought a deportation error, judge’s order says.
Reposted by David Sterman
So the President did disclose a CIA drone strike inside Venezuela.
And this does cross a red line of violating the UN Charter -- where the boat strikes on high seas had not.
www.cnn.com/2025/12/29/p...
And this does cross a red line of violating the UN Charter -- where the boat strikes on high seas had not.
www.cnn.com/2025/12/29/p...
Exclusive: CIA carried out drone strike on port facility on Venezuelan coast | CNN Politics
The CIA carried out a drone strike earlier this month on a port facility on the coast of Venezuela, sources familiar with the matter told CNN, marking the first known US attack on a target inside that...
www.cnn.com
December 30, 2025 at 1:46 AM
So the President did disclose a CIA drone strike inside Venezuela.
And this does cross a red line of violating the UN Charter -- where the boat strikes on high seas had not.
www.cnn.com/2025/12/29/p...
And this does cross a red line of violating the UN Charter -- where the boat strikes on high seas had not.
www.cnn.com/2025/12/29/p...
Reposted by David Sterman
This is not hard. Artists are not responsible for ensuring the Kennedy Center remains relevant and successful. The center’s board is responsible for that, in a fiduciary way. All of this energy being directed at artists should be re-directed at the board.
December 30, 2025 at 4:07 PM
This is not hard. Artists are not responsible for ensuring the Kennedy Center remains relevant and successful. The center’s board is responsible for that, in a fiduciary way. All of this energy being directed at artists should be re-directed at the board.