David Sterman
@davidsterman.bsky.social
Deputy Director, New America Future Security program
Pinned
David Sterman
@davidsterman.bsky.social
· Jul 24
The Escalation of U.S. Airstrikes in Somalia and the Role of Perceived Threats to the U.S. Homeland - Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract: In 2025, the United States substantially increased the pace of its airstrikes in Somalia. At the same time, it increasingly cited not just regional security rationales for the increased pace...
ctc.westpoint.edu
My latest on the escalation of U.S. strikes in Somalia and its interaction with rising perceptions of the threat from jihadist groups in Somalia including to the U.S. homeland.
ctc.westpoint.edu/the-escalati...
ctc.westpoint.edu/the-escalati...
This summary of CENTCOM activity doesn’t fully escape the muddle of US objectives in Iraq/Syria, but it does strike me as far more limited in rhetoric, specific re some measures/aims, and less rooted in unlimited objective discourse as many recent muddled releases.
www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-...
www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-...
www.centcom.mil
November 12, 2025 at 8:36 PM
This summary of CENTCOM activity doesn’t fully escape the muddle of US objectives in Iraq/Syria, but it does strike me as far more limited in rhetoric, specific re some measures/aims, and less rooted in unlimited objective discourse as many recent muddled releases.
www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-...
www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-...
Reposted by David Sterman
There seems to have been a second alleged U.S. strike in Yemen vs jihadists this year (connected to the other alleged strike by target).
Yet for years, we’ve lacked clarity on extent, nature of anti-AQAP strikes and indeed whether these are US strikes at all.
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
Yet for years, we’ve lacked clarity on extent, nature of anti-AQAP strikes and indeed whether these are US strikes at all.
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
America’s Counterterrorism Wars
Tracking the United States's drone strikes and other operations in Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, and Libya.
www.newamerica.org
November 11, 2025 at 12:35 PM
There seems to have been a second alleged U.S. strike in Yemen vs jihadists this year (connected to the other alleged strike by target).
Yet for years, we’ve lacked clarity on extent, nature of anti-AQAP strikes and indeed whether these are US strikes at all.
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
Yet for years, we’ve lacked clarity on extent, nature of anti-AQAP strikes and indeed whether these are US strikes at all.
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
Reposted by David Sterman
NEWS: The UK is no longer sharing intelligence with the US about suspected drug trafficking vessels in the Caribbean because it does not want to be complicit in US military strikes and believes the attacks are illegal, sources familiar with the matter told CNN. edition.cnn.com/2025/11/11/p...
Exclusive: UK suspends some intelligence sharing with US over boat strike concerns in major break | CNN Politics
The United Kingdom is no longer sharing intelligence with the US about suspected drug trafficking vessels in the Caribbean because it does not want to be complicit in US military strikes and believes ...
edition.cnn.com
November 11, 2025 at 3:06 PM
NEWS: The UK is no longer sharing intelligence with the US about suspected drug trafficking vessels in the Caribbean because it does not want to be complicit in US military strikes and believes the attacks are illegal, sources familiar with the matter told CNN. edition.cnn.com/2025/11/11/p...
There seems to have been a second alleged U.S. strike in Yemen vs jihadists this year (connected to the other alleged strike by target).
Yet for years, we’ve lacked clarity on extent, nature of anti-AQAP strikes and indeed whether these are US strikes at all.
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
Yet for years, we’ve lacked clarity on extent, nature of anti-AQAP strikes and indeed whether these are US strikes at all.
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
America’s Counterterrorism Wars
Tracking the United States's drone strikes and other operations in Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, and Libya.
www.newamerica.org
November 11, 2025 at 12:35 PM
There seems to have been a second alleged U.S. strike in Yemen vs jihadists this year (connected to the other alleged strike by target).
Yet for years, we’ve lacked clarity on extent, nature of anti-AQAP strikes and indeed whether these are US strikes at all.
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
Yet for years, we’ve lacked clarity on extent, nature of anti-AQAP strikes and indeed whether these are US strikes at all.
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
Reposted by David Sterman
Congress should be demanding much more than this, btw. If the Trump admin had charged these alleged drug-traffickers with crimes, they'd have had to introduce evidence in open court. Congress should demand that the Trump admin disclose that evidence now, if it exists. 1/2
The New York Times has quietly sued for access to video footage of Trump's flagrantly unlawful boat strikes in the Caribbean and Pacific. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
November 11, 2025 at 12:06 PM
Congress should be demanding much more than this, btw. If the Trump admin had charged these alleged drug-traffickers with crimes, they'd have had to introduce evidence in open court. Congress should demand that the Trump admin disclose that evidence now, if it exists. 1/2
Snarky and irony-laced commentary about the oddness of Sharaa’s diplomacy is understandable but not novel, interesting at this point, or good commentary/reporting.
There’s plenty of actual work, critiques, and theories to explore about where it’s going. Just noting the oddness is not any of that.
There’s plenty of actual work, critiques, and theories to explore about where it’s going. Just noting the oddness is not any of that.
November 10, 2025 at 9:13 PM
Snarky and irony-laced commentary about the oddness of Sharaa’s diplomacy is understandable but not novel, interesting at this point, or good commentary/reporting.
There’s plenty of actual work, critiques, and theories to explore about where it’s going. Just noting the oddness is not any of that.
There’s plenty of actual work, critiques, and theories to explore about where it’s going. Just noting the oddness is not any of that.
Reposted by David Sterman
I largely stepped away last night but I have to say this is exactly how my feed had me feeling this morning.
Not that there's a bunch of us, but I think a contingent of feds on here have been incentivized to just block 50% of the users here tonight, because man "you should eat shit indefinitely for undetermined reasons so I can poast about The Revolution" is a taek I guess, but not one I want to see
I, a 15-year career federal employee, am responsible for ACA subsidies being taken away.
Not the tens of millions of people who voted to give Donald Trump's Republican Party control of the American government, no, they're blameless victims. It's my fault and I should suffer for it.
fuck this shit.
Not the tens of millions of people who voted to give Donald Trump's Republican Party control of the American government, no, they're blameless victims. It's my fault and I should suffer for it.
fuck this shit.
November 10, 2025 at 2:51 PM
I largely stepped away last night but I have to say this is exactly how my feed had me feeling this morning.
Reposted by David Sterman
Our reporters interviewed 40 of the men the Trump administration sent to a notorious prison in El Salvador: They described being beaten, sexually assaulted by guards and driven to the brink of suicide. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/08/w...
‘You Are All Terrorists’: Four Months in a Salvadoran Prison
www.nytimes.com
November 9, 2025 at 2:41 AM
Our reporters interviewed 40 of the men the Trump administration sent to a notorious prison in El Salvador: They described being beaten, sexually assaulted by guards and driven to the brink of suicide. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/08/w...
The full absurdity of this can only truly be grasped by reading the section on Iraq.
A key error that undergirds this and a lot of criticism of the war on terror in my opinion is a failure to see how early Bush years were not nation building while also backdating much of the Obama era drone wars.
A key error that undergirds this and a lot of criticism of the war on terror in my opinion is a failure to see how early Bush years were not nation building while also backdating much of the Obama era drone wars.
i love how erik prince's "great" counterfactual idea on national security + counter-terror from 2024 is to do a punitive raid and nothing else
really what they pay him the big bucks for
really what they pay him the big bucks for
November 8, 2025 at 3:22 AM
The full absurdity of this can only truly be grasped by reading the section on Iraq.
A key error that undergirds this and a lot of criticism of the war on terror in my opinion is a failure to see how early Bush years were not nation building while also backdating much of the Obama era drone wars.
A key error that undergirds this and a lot of criticism of the war on terror in my opinion is a failure to see how early Bush years were not nation building while also backdating much of the Obama era drone wars.
Reposted by David Sterman
According to the administration, POTUS has determined that the U.S. is engaged in 24 secret, unauthorized, almost certainly fictional armed conflicts with “designated terrorist organizations.”
More conflicts than POTUS claims to have ended.
More conflicts than POTUS claims to have ended.
These maritime strikes are of course illegal.
The administration should release the OLC memo, including the list of 24 "designated terrorist organizations" that the admin has given itself permission to attack.
And Congress should continue to push back on this unauthorized military action. 2/n
The administration should release the OLC memo, including the list of 24 "designated terrorist organizations" that the admin has given itself permission to attack.
And Congress should continue to push back on this unauthorized military action. 2/n
November 7, 2025 at 1:54 AM
According to the administration, POTUS has determined that the U.S. is engaged in 24 secret, unauthorized, almost certainly fictional armed conflicts with “designated terrorist organizations.”
More conflicts than POTUS claims to have ended.
More conflicts than POTUS claims to have ended.
A lot of ways the UN seems broken and unable to respond to major crises given larger political splits.
But the ability to make this change seems a big sign that not all is mired on all big issues.
wtop.com/national/202...
But the ability to make this change seems a big sign that not all is mired on all big issues.
wtop.com/national/202...
UN approves US-backed effort to lift sanctions on Syria’s president - WTOP News
UNITED NATIONS (AP) — The U.N. Security Council voted Thursday to lift a series of sanctions on Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa and members of his government days before he is set to arrive in the U.
wtop.com
November 6, 2025 at 9:57 PM
A lot of ways the UN seems broken and unable to respond to major crises given larger political splits.
But the ability to make this change seems a big sign that not all is mired on all big issues.
wtop.com/national/202...
But the ability to make this change seems a big sign that not all is mired on all big issues.
wtop.com/national/202...
Reposted by David Sterman
HAPPENING NOW: Judge McConnell is sharply rebuking the Trump administration for what he said was defying his order to make full SNAP payments by Nov. 5. He has ordered USDA to make the *full* payment to states by tomorrow.
November 6, 2025 at 8:53 PM
HAPPENING NOW: Judge McConnell is sharply rebuking the Trump administration for what he said was defying his order to make full SNAP payments by Nov. 5. He has ordered USDA to make the *full* payment to states by tomorrow.
Really notable that a graphic like this is possible using gov sourcing for drug boat strikes but the U.S. fights tooth and nail to not release such info about strikes elsewhere.
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
November 6, 2025 at 6:54 PM
Really notable that a graphic like this is possible using gov sourcing for drug boat strikes but the U.S. fights tooth and nail to not release such info about strikes elsewhere.
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Reposted by David Sterman
And if one has a who cares attitude why is it that we see so much discourse. Got to ask what is the function of signaling on that.
November 4, 2025 at 3:43 PM
And if one has a who cares attitude why is it that we see so much discourse. Got to ask what is the function of signaling on that.
Reposted by David Sterman
Folks seem awfully willing to focus on hypocrisy claims and left wing purity signaling when it comes to a major breakthrough for antisemitism.
I don’t think you need to be actively invested in institutions you oppose. But in my opinion, there’s a lot of issues with the who cares attitude.
I don’t think you need to be actively invested in institutions you oppose. But in my opinion, there’s a lot of issues with the who cares attitude.
November 4, 2025 at 3:43 PM
Folks seem awfully willing to focus on hypocrisy claims and left wing purity signaling when it comes to a major breakthrough for antisemitism.
I don’t think you need to be actively invested in institutions you oppose. But in my opinion, there’s a lot of issues with the who cares attitude.
I don’t think you need to be actively invested in institutions you oppose. But in my opinion, there’s a lot of issues with the who cares attitude.
Without claiming any expertise to resolve, this seems right to me. Probably least convinced on the ethnic differences contrast being as key.
Anyways think interesting/valuable read especially given a relative lack of LatAm experience/knowledge among many who came up reacting to the Mideast wars.
Anyways think interesting/valuable read especially given a relative lack of LatAm experience/knowledge among many who came up reacting to the Mideast wars.
Wrote a short post on the Venezuela-Libya analogies that are going around.
pertierra.substack.com/p/the-proble...
pertierra.substack.com/p/the-proble...
The Problem with Analogies
Why Libya does NOT seem like a good comparison for Venezuela
pertierra.substack.com
November 4, 2025 at 9:08 PM
Without claiming any expertise to resolve, this seems right to me. Probably least convinced on the ethnic differences contrast being as key.
Anyways think interesting/valuable read especially given a relative lack of LatAm experience/knowledge among many who came up reacting to the Mideast wars.
Anyways think interesting/valuable read especially given a relative lack of LatAm experience/knowledge among many who came up reacting to the Mideast wars.
As a reminder the big Brown study of direct/indirect deaths is about (per the paper) the toll “whoever the combatant, whatever the compounding factor” and explicitly “does not focus on attributing responsibility”.
Citing it to bash Cheney - who is responsible for much violence - is dishonest.
Citing it to bash Cheney - who is responsible for much violence - is dishonest.
November 4, 2025 at 4:33 PM
As a reminder the big Brown study of direct/indirect deaths is about (per the paper) the toll “whoever the combatant, whatever the compounding factor” and explicitly “does not focus on attributing responsibility”.
Citing it to bash Cheney - who is responsible for much violence - is dishonest.
Citing it to bash Cheney - who is responsible for much violence - is dishonest.
Folks seem awfully willing to focus on hypocrisy claims and left wing purity signaling when it comes to a major breakthrough for antisemitism.
I don’t think you need to be actively invested in institutions you oppose. But in my opinion, there’s a lot of issues with the who cares attitude.
I don’t think you need to be actively invested in institutions you oppose. But in my opinion, there’s a lot of issues with the who cares attitude.
November 4, 2025 at 3:43 PM
Folks seem awfully willing to focus on hypocrisy claims and left wing purity signaling when it comes to a major breakthrough for antisemitism.
I don’t think you need to be actively invested in institutions you oppose. But in my opinion, there’s a lot of issues with the who cares attitude.
I don’t think you need to be actively invested in institutions you oppose. But in my opinion, there’s a lot of issues with the who cares attitude.
Reposted by David Sterman
New: dates for all nine strikes in Somalia that were part of the two week operation ending 8/23
2 strikes on 8/22
1 each on 8/10, 8/11, 8/12, 8/14, 8/15, 8/21, 8/23.
2 strikes on 8/22
1 each on 8/10, 8/11, 8/12, 8/14, 8/15, 8/21, 8/23.
November 3, 2025 at 6:05 PM
New: dates for all nine strikes in Somalia that were part of the two week operation ending 8/23
2 strikes on 8/22
1 each on 8/10, 8/11, 8/12, 8/14, 8/15, 8/21, 8/23.
2 strikes on 8/22
1 each on 8/10, 8/11, 8/12, 8/14, 8/15, 8/21, 8/23.
Similar pace also to recent strikes in Somalia.
Also notable how each of these has an assessed death toll and the Somalia strikes don’t.
Also notable how each of these has an assessed death toll and the Somalia strikes don’t.
The pace of U.S. military strikes on boats in the Caribbean and Pacific last month matched the pace of CIA drone strikes in Pakistan’s tribal areas at the peak of the Obama admin’s campaign there in 2010 (although those strikes each used more missiles and killed more people, on average)
- 1st month of strikes: 3 attacks, 17 deaths
- 2nd month of strikes: 12 attacks, 48 deaths
It is now 60 days since the first illegal boat strike in the waters of Latin America. That is an important date for the War Powers Resolution (see www.justsecurity.org/123717/war-p...).
- 2nd month of strikes: 12 attacks, 48 deaths
It is now 60 days since the first illegal boat strike in the waters of Latin America. That is an important date for the War Powers Resolution (see www.justsecurity.org/123717/war-p...).
November 3, 2025 at 7:29 PM
Similar pace also to recent strikes in Somalia.
Also notable how each of these has an assessed death toll and the Somalia strikes don’t.
Also notable how each of these has an assessed death toll and the Somalia strikes don’t.
Reposted by David Sterman
The pace of U.S. military strikes on boats in the Caribbean and Pacific last month matched the pace of CIA drone strikes in Pakistan’s tribal areas at the peak of the Obama admin’s campaign there in 2010 (although those strikes each used more missiles and killed more people, on average)
- 1st month of strikes: 3 attacks, 17 deaths
- 2nd month of strikes: 12 attacks, 48 deaths
It is now 60 days since the first illegal boat strike in the waters of Latin America. That is an important date for the War Powers Resolution (see www.justsecurity.org/123717/war-p...).
- 2nd month of strikes: 12 attacks, 48 deaths
It is now 60 days since the first illegal boat strike in the waters of Latin America. That is an important date for the War Powers Resolution (see www.justsecurity.org/123717/war-p...).
November 3, 2025 at 7:18 PM
The pace of U.S. military strikes on boats in the Caribbean and Pacific last month matched the pace of CIA drone strikes in Pakistan’s tribal areas at the peak of the Obama admin’s campaign there in 2010 (although those strikes each used more missiles and killed more people, on average)
New: dates for all nine strikes in Somalia that were part of the two week operation ending 8/23
2 strikes on 8/22
1 each on 8/10, 8/11, 8/12, 8/14, 8/15, 8/21, 8/23.
2 strikes on 8/22
1 each on 8/10, 8/11, 8/12, 8/14, 8/15, 8/21, 8/23.
November 3, 2025 at 6:05 PM
New: dates for all nine strikes in Somalia that were part of the two week operation ending 8/23
2 strikes on 8/22
1 each on 8/10, 8/11, 8/12, 8/14, 8/15, 8/21, 8/23.
2 strikes on 8/22
1 each on 8/10, 8/11, 8/12, 8/14, 8/15, 8/21, 8/23.
Seems just days ago Hegseth was defending the drug boat strikes on the basis of a shift away from wars for others’ homelands.
Confirmation from TV entertainer and inexplicably Secretary of War/Defense/whatevs Pete Hegseth.
November 2, 2025 at 12:16 AM
Seems just days ago Hegseth was defending the drug boat strikes on the basis of a shift away from wars for others’ homelands.
Worth noting avoiding harm to infantry / experience of early Iraq war type war experiences for infantry is not a particularly strong grounding for opposition to many of the kinds of wars/military actions the U.S. is/has involved itself in in recent years.
November 1, 2025 at 2:45 AM
Worth noting avoiding harm to infantry / experience of early Iraq war type war experiences for infantry is not a particularly strong grounding for opposition to many of the kinds of wars/military actions the U.S. is/has involved itself in in recent years.
Signature strikes for activity that’s not part of an armed conflict or enough on its own to make you a combatant.
Very not good.
theintercept.com/2025/10/31/t...
Very not good.
theintercept.com/2025/10/31/t...
Trump Administration Admits It Doesn’t Know Who Exactly It’s Killing in Boat Strikes
Officials acknowledged they don’t know the identities of the people they’re killing and can’t meet the evidentiary burden to prosecute survivors.
theintercept.com
October 31, 2025 at 9:27 PM
Signature strikes for activity that’s not part of an armed conflict or enough on its own to make you a combatant.
Very not good.
theintercept.com/2025/10/31/t...
Very not good.
theintercept.com/2025/10/31/t...