Pinned
Reposted by Costa (mudkip arc)
I think financial market participants have a fundamentally dated view of the fiscal positions in the US vs Europe
Since the Euro crisis, EU has de-leveraged, while USG has levered up
Right now EU is running NGDP growth well above fiscal deficits, while US is running deficits well above NGDP growth
Since the Euro crisis, EU has de-leveraged, while USG has levered up
Right now EU is running NGDP growth well above fiscal deficits, while US is running deficits well above NGDP growth
January 21, 2026 at 10:51 AM
I think financial market participants have a fundamentally dated view of the fiscal positions in the US vs Europe
Since the Euro crisis, EU has de-leveraged, while USG has levered up
Right now EU is running NGDP growth well above fiscal deficits, while US is running deficits well above NGDP growth
Since the Euro crisis, EU has de-leveraged, while USG has levered up
Right now EU is running NGDP growth well above fiscal deficits, while US is running deficits well above NGDP growth
Reposted by Costa (mudkip arc)
Large caps > Small caps
Existing firms > New firms
Incumbents > Startups
Many forget that when they own the equity market, they own the existing, listed firms and in a dynamic economy earnings growth is shared with new, yet-to-exist and smaller, unlisted firms
Existing firms > New firms
Incumbents > Startups
Many forget that when they own the equity market, they own the existing, listed firms and in a dynamic economy earnings growth is shared with new, yet-to-exist and smaller, unlisted firms
January 13, 2026 at 6:25 AM
Large caps > Small caps
Existing firms > New firms
Incumbents > Startups
Many forget that when they own the equity market, they own the existing, listed firms and in a dynamic economy earnings growth is shared with new, yet-to-exist and smaller, unlisted firms
Existing firms > New firms
Incumbents > Startups
Many forget that when they own the equity market, they own the existing, listed firms and in a dynamic economy earnings growth is shared with new, yet-to-exist and smaller, unlisted firms
Reposted by Costa (mudkip arc)
Interesting thread
Fascinating that in the most affluent country in the history of humanity where 'middle class to instantly, totally destitute' rarely (not 'never') happens, it is received wisdom amongst content creators and consumers that it happens often enough to worry about it constantly
Fascinating that in the most affluent country in the history of humanity where 'middle class to instantly, totally destitute' rarely (not 'never') happens, it is received wisdom amongst content creators and consumers that it happens often enough to worry about it constantly
On CN social media the term picked up steam after US content creators talked about how an ambulance ride could bankrupt them, but more specifically how housing, healthcare, education, childcare and other living costs have become unaffordable to the point that 1 emergency can wipe out their savings.
December 27, 2025 at 3:57 AM
Interesting thread
Fascinating that in the most affluent country in the history of humanity where 'middle class to instantly, totally destitute' rarely (not 'never') happens, it is received wisdom amongst content creators and consumers that it happens often enough to worry about it constantly
Fascinating that in the most affluent country in the history of humanity where 'middle class to instantly, totally destitute' rarely (not 'never') happens, it is received wisdom amongst content creators and consumers that it happens often enough to worry about it constantly
Reposted by Costa (mudkip arc)
Reposted by Costa (mudkip arc)
Telling someone that to relax after said at least work-related footnote trawling I'm watching a drachinifel video on the history of the Fritz-X seemingly made me seem no more well adjusted haha
December 8, 2025 at 9:21 AM
Telling someone that to relax after said at least work-related footnote trawling I'm watching a drachinifel video on the history of the Fritz-X seemingly made me seem no more well adjusted haha
Reposted by Costa (mudkip arc)
Sometimes I think I'm a vaguely sane and normal person, then I tell someone that digging through the footnotes of federal budget documents for hours over the weekend is fun to me and they very quickly rid me of this illusion.
December 8, 2025 at 9:15 AM
Sometimes I think I'm a vaguely sane and normal person, then I tell someone that digging through the footnotes of federal budget documents for hours over the weekend is fun to me and they very quickly rid me of this illusion.
Reposted by Costa (mudkip arc)
Fun fact -- despite all the talk about "China slowdown, India growth acceleration", China has grown faster than India over trailing 5, 10, 15, and 20 year periods in USD GDP/Capita terms
This is despite the fact that the INR is overvalued and the RMB is undervalued (perhaps significantly)
This is despite the fact that the INR is overvalued and the RMB is undervalued (perhaps significantly)
The Indian rupee has fallen below 90 per dollar for the first time.
December 3, 2025 at 9:28 AM
Fun fact -- despite all the talk about "China slowdown, India growth acceleration", China has grown faster than India over trailing 5, 10, 15, and 20 year periods in USD GDP/Capita terms
This is despite the fact that the INR is overvalued and the RMB is undervalued (perhaps significantly)
This is despite the fact that the INR is overvalued and the RMB is undervalued (perhaps significantly)
Reposted by Costa (mudkip arc)
Despite the median manufacturing wage in China ~2-3x Vietnam's level, power tools companies that move there have 4-10% higher production costs
November 30, 2025 at 9:21 AM
Despite the median manufacturing wage in China ~2-3x Vietnam's level, power tools companies that move there have 4-10% higher production costs
Reposted by Costa (mudkip arc)
There’s a fundamental flaw in the premise here — “mass culture” is defined as film, TV, music… when in reality culture is downstream of TikTok, YouTube, the internet and there’s no stagnation there
Movies are irrelevant to mass media - but still relevant to commentators
pca.st/episode/ab91...
Movies are irrelevant to mass media - but still relevant to commentators
pca.st/episode/ab91...
A Grand Unified Theory of Cultural Stagnation
pca.st
November 30, 2025 at 2:28 AM
There’s a fundamental flaw in the premise here — “mass culture” is defined as film, TV, music… when in reality culture is downstream of TikTok, YouTube, the internet and there’s no stagnation there
Movies are irrelevant to mass media - but still relevant to commentators
pca.st/episode/ab91...
Movies are irrelevant to mass media - but still relevant to commentators
pca.st/episode/ab91...
Reposted by Costa (mudkip arc)
I am usually a reliable audience for analysis about esoteric macroeconomic imbalances, but I have to confess I find everything about Argentina completely uninteresting -- the constant failings make for exciting reporting, but it's useless for knowledge-building since its always an exception
October 22, 2025 at 2:53 PM
I am usually a reliable audience for analysis about esoteric macroeconomic imbalances, but I have to confess I find everything about Argentina completely uninteresting -- the constant failings make for exciting reporting, but it's useless for knowledge-building since its always an exception
It’s called an Aella diagram nowadays, actually
sometimes you've just got to appreciate the beauty of EU policy making.
Who else could have created the second worst sankey diagram of all time
Who else could have created the second worst sankey diagram of all time
October 31, 2025 at 1:14 PM
It’s called an Aella diagram nowadays, actually
Reposted by Costa (mudkip arc)
someone write a screenplay about the waifubot prompts and the DOD prompts at xAI getting mixed up
July 14, 2025 at 7:38 PM
someone write a screenplay about the waifubot prompts and the DOD prompts at xAI getting mixed up
Reposted by Costa (mudkip arc)
Climate austerity from the left is an ideological undercurrent that must be destroyed at nearly any cost because it is one of the most regressive and inegalitarian positions you can take. The social and health returns on adequate AC alone are gigantic relative to the environmental footprint.
The fact that Le Pen(!) of all people is calling for AC is not a good look for the political future of France
Le Monde is calling it hell but they're still saying air conditioning is not a solution
July 2, 2025 at 9:05 PM
Climate austerity from the left is an ideological undercurrent that must be destroyed at nearly any cost because it is one of the most regressive and inegalitarian positions you can take. The social and health returns on adequate AC alone are gigantic relative to the environmental footprint.
Israeli drones over Teheran & bombing the Iranian state tv life on air. that’s it. The regime is wholly impotent. Might not be finished tomorrow or in a few years - nobody knows - but they cant make destroying isreal the sole purpose of their state and then simply collapse upon contact immediately
June 16, 2025 at 4:34 PM
Israeli drones over Teheran & bombing the Iranian state tv life on air. that’s it. The regime is wholly impotent. Might not be finished tomorrow or in a few years - nobody knows - but they cant make destroying isreal the sole purpose of their state and then simply collapse upon contact immediately
It’s remarkable how delusional much of the public is about, well,,, most things.
I’ve never been more convinced that the German baby boomers would’ve been utterly incapable of accomplishing what the post war generation has. I hope mine is less stupid, but,,,
I’ve never been more convinced that the German baby boomers would’ve been utterly incapable of accomplishing what the post war generation has. I hope mine is less stupid, but,,,
Watching the morning politics shows in the UK and media commentary in Germany in relation to the Israel-Iran War it is fascinating how even several years after Februay 2022 and October 2023 so much of European debate still struggles to face the language of war
June 15, 2025 at 11:33 AM
It’s remarkable how delusional much of the public is about, well,,, most things.
I’ve never been more convinced that the German baby boomers would’ve been utterly incapable of accomplishing what the post war generation has. I hope mine is less stupid, but,,,
I’ve never been more convinced that the German baby boomers would’ve been utterly incapable of accomplishing what the post war generation has. I hope mine is less stupid, but,,,
it’s super funny how the Palestinians killed the soviet union (through the oil crisis) and have now also dismanteled the „axis of resistance“
June 14, 2025 at 8:32 PM
it’s super funny how the Palestinians killed the soviet union (through the oil crisis) and have now also dismanteled the „axis of resistance“
Reposted by Costa (mudkip arc)
fascinating to me how people keep inventing *new* anti-semitic myths.
Because Israel was founded by a bunch of Russian terrorists and is thus more sympathetic to the average white person than the Arabs they colonised and have been committing genocide against for 80 years?
June 14, 2025 at 6:18 PM
fascinating to me how people keep inventing *new* anti-semitic myths.
Reposted by Costa (mudkip arc)
“French President Emmanuel Macron says that the information France had on the Iranian nuclear program was most concerning, adding that the program was close to a critical stage.” www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ent...
France’s Macron: Iran nuclear program was close to a critical stage
* * *
www.timesofisrael.com
June 13, 2025 at 6:36 PM
“French President Emmanuel Macron says that the information France had on the Iranian nuclear program was most concerning, adding that the program was close to a critical stage.” www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ent...
Reposted by Costa (mudkip arc)
The Iranians just handed the excuse the Israelis were looking for to escalate further.
Any speculation about de-escalation is downright delusional
Any speculation about de-escalation is downright delusional
Important signal. “A senior Israeli security official tells Channel 12 that Israel has warned Iran that if it targets Israeli population centers with ballistic missiles, Israel will target…regime leaders and state infrastructure such as oil refineries.” www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-jun...
Israelis ordered to stay close to shelters as country braces for Iran response to IDF strikes
Hanegbi: Military force alone can’t destroy Iran’s nuke program; only Trump can compel Iran to abandon it; Iran’s political leaders won’t be targeted * Houthi missile lands in southern West Bank Pales...
www.timesofisrael.com
June 13, 2025 at 6:23 PM
The Iranians just handed the excuse the Israelis were looking for to escalate further.
Any speculation about de-escalation is downright delusional
Any speculation about de-escalation is downright delusional
I don’t think Bibi is the kinda guy who’s conductive to peace in the Middle East but you do have to hand it to him if even Hezbollah isn’t willing to die for Iran now
June 13, 2025 at 10:20 AM
I don’t think Bibi is the kinda guy who’s conductive to peace in the Middle East but you do have to hand it to him if even Hezbollah isn’t willing to die for Iran now
a pretty good opportuinty for a revolution in iran if there’s ever been one.
June 13, 2025 at 10:03 AM
a pretty good opportuinty for a revolution in iran if there’s ever been one.
Reposted by Costa (mudkip arc)
it was not just that “woke art” was bad art, it was also that the people who made it themselves often held its values privately in contempt. neil gaiman was the guy who came up with the “it’s about being a good guy, not political correctness” quote people toss around, but….
June 11, 2025 at 10:54 AM
it was not just that “woke art” was bad art, it was also that the people who made it themselves often held its values privately in contempt. neil gaiman was the guy who came up with the “it’s about being a good guy, not political correctness” quote people toss around, but….
Reposted by Costa (mudkip arc)
I genuinely think this particular aesthetic trend (Good Art Is Didactic And Also Assumes You Are Very Stupid) is a non-trivial source of anti-woke backlash, like unironically. It is really really annoying, and I think it has provided wedges by which anti-wokes can radicalise nerds.
Reading a fiction book rn which is *so* obnoxiously didactic bc the author is *so* anxious you might draw the wrong political conclusion that it's making me anti-woke. Catch me on the Tim pool podcast
June 11, 2025 at 8:26 AM
I genuinely think this particular aesthetic trend (Good Art Is Didactic And Also Assumes You Are Very Stupid) is a non-trivial source of anti-woke backlash, like unironically. It is really really annoying, and I think it has provided wedges by which anti-wokes can radicalise nerds.
Reposted by Costa (mudkip arc)
he is unintentionally the funniest person to ever be president
Q: Have you uncovered evidence that anything was signed without Biden's knowledge?
TRUMP: I don't think Biden would know
Q: I'm asking if you've uncovered any information
TRUMP: No. But I've uncovered the human mind. I was in a debate with the human mind.
TRUMP: I don't think Biden would know
Q: I'm asking if you've uncovered any information
TRUMP: No. But I've uncovered the human mind. I was in a debate with the human mind.
June 5, 2025 at 4:46 PM
he is unintentionally the funniest person to ever be president
Ahahaha
RUSSIA'S LAVROV: GERMANY'S DIRECT INVOLVEMENT IN WAR IS ALREADY EVIDENT
May 28, 2025 at 3:05 PM
Ahahaha