Chaz Nuttycombe
@chaznuttycombe.bsky.social
On X much more than here. Follow @statenavigate.org for our latest.
Executive Director of @statenavigate.org, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. VT Alumni. Opinions my own. Contact: chaz@statenavigate.org
Executive Director of @statenavigate.org, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. VT Alumni. Opinions my own. Contact: chaz@statenavigate.org
HOLD ME NOW, I'M 6 FEET FROM THE EDGE AND I'M THINKIN'
January 7, 2026 at 11:42 AM
HOLD ME NOW, I'M 6 FEET FROM THE EDGE AND I'M THINKIN'
Klobuchar isn't beatable, the real challenge is holding her to a win margin of less than 15.
You can already see some R/RW flop sweat about the challenge of beating Klobuchar; convincing people that a senator who wasn’t involved in MN state government was culpable in Minnesota welfare scandal, not easy. Rare case of a DC resume being an asset
Listening to Tim Pawlenty basically say on MPR ... "well, if Klobuchar runs, it's gonna be tough."
Really that's the next question.
Really that's the next question.
January 5, 2026 at 8:24 PM
Klobuchar isn't beatable, the real challenge is holding her to a win margin of less than 15.
Reposted by Chaz Nuttycombe
2026 is here! Happy New Years from State Navigate! 🎊
January 1, 2026 at 2:30 PM
2026 is here! Happy New Years from State Navigate! 🎊
Reposted by Chaz Nuttycombe
Happy Hogmanay y'all. If you'd like to support @statenavigate.org's 2026 expansion, make sure to make a tax-deductible 2025 donation in the remaining hours of the year!
statenavigate.org/donate/
statenavigate.org/donate/
Donate - State Navigate
Support Our Mission! As a 501(c)(3) organization, donations to State Navigate are tax deductible! We're striving to make it easier to navigate state-level politics and make them more transparent for a...
statenavigate.org
December 31, 2025 at 7:05 PM
Happy Hogmanay y'all. If you'd like to support @statenavigate.org's 2026 expansion, make sure to make a tax-deductible 2025 donation in the remaining hours of the year!
statenavigate.org/donate/
statenavigate.org/donate/
Happy Hogmanay y'all. If you'd like to support @statenavigate.org's 2026 expansion, make sure to make a tax-deductible 2025 donation in the remaining hours of the year!
statenavigate.org/donate/
statenavigate.org/donate/
Donate - State Navigate
Support Our Mission! As a 501(c)(3) organization, donations to State Navigate are tax deductible! We're striving to make it easier to navigate state-level politics and make them more transparent for a...
statenavigate.org
December 31, 2025 at 7:05 PM
Happy Hogmanay y'all. If you'd like to support @statenavigate.org's 2026 expansion, make sure to make a tax-deductible 2025 donation in the remaining hours of the year!
statenavigate.org/donate/
statenavigate.org/donate/
North Carolina @statenavigate.org out tomorrow
December 13, 2025 at 12:28 AM
North Carolina @statenavigate.org out tomorrow
Reposted by Chaz Nuttycombe
Chaz Nuttycombe on Untold, a WTVR Podcast, discussing State Navigate’s goals and our great team!
December 4, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Chaz Nuttycombe on Untold, a WTVR Podcast, discussing State Navigate’s goals and our great team!
Reposted by Chaz Nuttycombe
When one Nuttycombe rises, we all rise!
At just 26, Chaz Nuttycombe has taken the election prediction world by storm, becoming one of the most talked about and sought-after forecasters in the country.
The Rise of Chaz Nuttycombe: Forecast is good for 26-year-old polling prognosticator
At just 26, Chaz Nuttycombe has taken the election prediction world by storm, becoming one of the most talked about and sought-after forecasters in the country.
www.wtvr.com
November 25, 2025 at 10:18 PM
When one Nuttycombe rises, we all rise!
Reposted by Chaz Nuttycombe
At just 26, Chaz Nuttycombe has taken the election prediction world by storm, becoming one of the most talked about and sought-after forecasters in the country.
The Rise of Chaz Nuttycombe: Forecast is good for 26-year-old polling prognosticator
At just 26, Chaz Nuttycombe has taken the election prediction world by storm, becoming one of the most talked about and sought-after forecasters in the country.
www.wtvr.com
November 20, 2025 at 11:04 PM
At just 26, Chaz Nuttycombe has taken the election prediction world by storm, becoming one of the most talked about and sought-after forecasters in the country.
Alaska Navigate comes out Wednesday.
November 21, 2025 at 8:37 PM
Alaska Navigate comes out Wednesday.
Reposted by Chaz Nuttycombe
State Navigate turned out to be one of the most accurate pollsters in Virginia in 2025. Here's our analysis for why we beat the rest of the pack.
https://statenavigate.org/why-polls-underestimated-democrats-in-virginia/
https://statenavigate.org/why-polls-underestimated-democrats-in-virginia/
November 18, 2025 at 6:40 PM
State Navigate turned out to be one of the most accurate pollsters in Virginia in 2025. Here's our analysis for why we beat the rest of the pack.
https://statenavigate.org/why-polls-underestimated-democrats-in-virginia/
https://statenavigate.org/why-polls-underestimated-democrats-in-virginia/
Fun story from 2017. When I first met @pwcdanica.bsky.social it was at an event when I was barely 18. I showed her my predictions for the House of Delegates which had her in a Likely D/Solid D race. She disagreed and said she was in a Toss-Up.
She won by 8.
She won by 8.
November 7, 2025 at 5:52 PM
Fun story from 2017. When I first met @pwcdanica.bsky.social it was at an event when I was barely 18. I showed her my predictions for the House of Delegates which had her in a Likely D/Solid D race. She disagreed and said she was in a Toss-Up.
She won by 8.
She won by 8.
As a 26-year-old, I came up with the idea of sending our text messages to 18-29 year olds in lowercase to try to get them to respond to the survey. It worked like a charm.
As a political scientist, so privileged to be working with Michael Foley on our polling.
statenavigate.org/state-naviga...
As a political scientist, so privileged to be working with Michael Foley on our polling.
statenavigate.org/state-naviga...
State Navigate Experiment Shows how Pollsters Can Reach Young Voters - State Navigate
Cultural competence goes a long way. We knew young voters would come out in Virginia this year, so we made sure we got them to answer our surveys.
statenavigate.org
November 7, 2025 at 5:45 PM
As a 26-year-old, I came up with the idea of sending our text messages to 18-29 year olds in lowercase to try to get them to respond to the survey. It worked like a charm.
As a political scientist, so privileged to be working with Michael Foley on our polling.
statenavigate.org/state-naviga...
As a political scientist, so privileged to be working with Michael Foley on our polling.
statenavigate.org/state-naviga...
Too late WhichSide Digital did it
November 6, 2025 at 3:34 PM
Too late WhichSide Digital did it
You can now go to @statenavigate.org and see shifts by precinct district and county in VA from 24 presidential. We have allocated non ED votes via formula where localities haven't allocated yet.
projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states...
projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states...
November 5, 2025 at 10:51 PM
You can now go to @statenavigate.org and see shifts by precinct district and county in VA from 24 presidential. We have allocated non ED votes via formula where localities haven't allocated yet.
projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states...
projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states...
Reposted by Chaz Nuttycombe
meme bat signal
I'll make a deal with BlueSky: if someone on here does this I'll start posting on here more often
www.youtube.com/watch?v=43j8...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=43j8...
November 5, 2025 at 6:20 PM
meme bat signal
I'll make a deal with BlueSky: if someone on here does this I'll start posting on here more often
www.youtube.com/watch?v=43j8...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=43j8...
November 5, 2025 at 6:16 PM
I'll make a deal with BlueSky: if someone on here does this I'll start posting on here more often
www.youtube.com/watch?v=43j8...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=43j8...
Reposted by Chaz Nuttycombe
the folks over at State Navigate also appear to have had a very good night with their forecasts in New Jersey and Virginia: projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states...
and their polling in VA (which I did the weighting for), both statewide and house districts, was also very good!
and their polling in VA (which I did the weighting for), both statewide and house districts, was also very good!
2025 VA Forecasts
Take a look at State Navigate's 2025 Virginia forecasts.
projects.statenavigate.com
November 5, 2025 at 3:03 AM
the folks over at State Navigate also appear to have had a very good night with their forecasts in New Jersey and Virginia: projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states...
and their polling in VA (which I did the weighting for), both statewide and house districts, was also very good!
and their polling in VA (which I did the weighting for), both statewide and house districts, was also very good!
Final forecast t.co/7qcmYTDFp6
https://statenavigate.org/final-2025-virginia-forecasts-show-democrats-poised-to-win-virginia-elections/
t.co
November 3, 2025 at 5:13 PM
Final forecast t.co/7qcmYTDFp6
Reposted by Chaz Nuttycombe
Spanberger "as certain as the sun" to win Va. Gov. race, says @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social, who successfully predicted all 140 House and Senate races in 2023. Here's part of our chat on #TheFinal5:
www.fox5dc.com/video/1733093
www.fox5dc.com/video/1733093
Election forecaster: Spanberger "as certain as the sun" to win Va. Gov. race
Election forecaster Chaz Nuttycombe, executive director of State Navigate, told The Final 5 that his projections suggest Democrat Abigail Spanberger is a near lock to win Virginia’s governor’s race, w...
www.fox5dc.com
October 31, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Spanberger "as certain as the sun" to win Va. Gov. race, says @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social, who successfully predicted all 140 House and Senate races in 2023. Here's part of our chat on #TheFinal5:
www.fox5dc.com/video/1733093
www.fox5dc.com/video/1733093
On Election Day I'll be streaming on YouTube tracking turnout, I'll make sure to post a link here.
October 31, 2025 at 12:15 AM
On Election Day I'll be streaming on YouTube tracking turnout, I'll make sure to post a link here.