Chaz Nuttycombe
@chaznuttycombe.bsky.social
On X much more than here. Follow @statenavigate.org for our latest.
Executive Director of @statenavigate.org, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. VT Alumni. Opinions my own. Contact: chaz@statenavigate.org
Executive Director of @statenavigate.org, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. VT Alumni. Opinions my own. Contact: chaz@statenavigate.org
Fun story from 2017. When I first met @pwcdanica.bsky.social it was at an event when I was barely 18. I showed her my predictions for the House of Delegates which had her in a Likely D/Solid D race. She disagreed and said she was in a Toss-Up.
She won by 8.
She won by 8.
November 7, 2025 at 5:52 PM
Fun story from 2017. When I first met @pwcdanica.bsky.social it was at an event when I was barely 18. I showed her my predictions for the House of Delegates which had her in a Likely D/Solid D race. She disagreed and said she was in a Toss-Up.
She won by 8.
She won by 8.
As a 26-year-old, I came up with the idea of sending our text messages to 18-29 year olds in lowercase to try to get them to respond to the survey. It worked like a charm.
As a political scientist, so privileged to be working with Michael Foley on our polling.
statenavigate.org/state-naviga...
As a political scientist, so privileged to be working with Michael Foley on our polling.
statenavigate.org/state-naviga...
State Navigate Experiment Shows how Pollsters Can Reach Young Voters - State Navigate
Cultural competence goes a long way. We knew young voters would come out in Virginia this year, so we made sure we got them to answer our surveys.
statenavigate.org
November 7, 2025 at 5:45 PM
As a 26-year-old, I came up with the idea of sending our text messages to 18-29 year olds in lowercase to try to get them to respond to the survey. It worked like a charm.
As a political scientist, so privileged to be working with Michael Foley on our polling.
statenavigate.org/state-naviga...
As a political scientist, so privileged to be working with Michael Foley on our polling.
statenavigate.org/state-naviga...
Too late WhichSide Digital did it
November 6, 2025 at 3:34 PM
Too late WhichSide Digital did it
You can now go to @statenavigate.org and see shifts by precinct district and county in VA from 24 presidential. We have allocated non ED votes via formula where localities haven't allocated yet.
projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states...
projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states...
November 5, 2025 at 10:51 PM
You can now go to @statenavigate.org and see shifts by precinct district and county in VA from 24 presidential. We have allocated non ED votes via formula where localities haven't allocated yet.
projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states...
projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states...
Reposted by Chaz Nuttycombe
meme bat signal
I'll make a deal with BlueSky: if someone on here does this I'll start posting on here more often
www.youtube.com/watch?v=43j8...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=43j8...
November 5, 2025 at 6:20 PM
meme bat signal
I'll make a deal with BlueSky: if someone on here does this I'll start posting on here more often
www.youtube.com/watch?v=43j8...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=43j8...
November 5, 2025 at 6:16 PM
I'll make a deal with BlueSky: if someone on here does this I'll start posting on here more often
www.youtube.com/watch?v=43j8...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=43j8...
Reposted by Chaz Nuttycombe
the folks over at State Navigate also appear to have had a very good night with their forecasts in New Jersey and Virginia: projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states...
and their polling in VA (which I did the weighting for), both statewide and house districts, was also very good!
and their polling in VA (which I did the weighting for), both statewide and house districts, was also very good!
2025 VA Forecasts
Take a look at State Navigate's 2025 Virginia forecasts.
projects.statenavigate.com
November 5, 2025 at 3:03 AM
the folks over at State Navigate also appear to have had a very good night with their forecasts in New Jersey and Virginia: projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states...
and their polling in VA (which I did the weighting for), both statewide and house districts, was also very good!
and their polling in VA (which I did the weighting for), both statewide and house districts, was also very good!
Final forecast t.co/7qcmYTDFp6
https://statenavigate.org/final-2025-virginia-forecasts-show-democrats-poised-to-win-virginia-elections/
t.co
November 3, 2025 at 5:13 PM
Final forecast t.co/7qcmYTDFp6
Reposted by Chaz Nuttycombe
Spanberger "as certain as the sun" to win Va. Gov. race, says @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social, who successfully predicted all 140 House and Senate races in 2023. Here's part of our chat on #TheFinal5:
www.fox5dc.com/video/1733093
www.fox5dc.com/video/1733093
Election forecaster: Spanberger "as certain as the sun" to win Va. Gov. race
Election forecaster Chaz Nuttycombe, executive director of State Navigate, told The Final 5 that his projections suggest Democrat Abigail Spanberger is a near lock to win Virginia’s governor’s race, w...
www.fox5dc.com
October 31, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Spanberger "as certain as the sun" to win Va. Gov. race, says @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social, who successfully predicted all 140 House and Senate races in 2023. Here's part of our chat on #TheFinal5:
www.fox5dc.com/video/1733093
www.fox5dc.com/video/1733093
On Election Day I'll be streaming on YouTube tracking turnout, I'll make sure to post a link here.
October 31, 2025 at 12:15 AM
On Election Day I'll be streaming on YouTube tracking turnout, I'll make sure to post a link here.
NEW @statenavigate.org poll of VA HD-73
Governor 🔵 Spanberger +3
Lt. Governor 🔵 Hashmi +1
Attorney General 🔴 Miyares +7
House of Delegates🔴Earley +1
statenavigate.org/swing-distri...
Governor 🔵 Spanberger +3
Lt. Governor 🔵 Hashmi +1
Attorney General 🔴 Miyares +7
House of Delegates🔴Earley +1
statenavigate.org/swing-distri...
Swing District in Chesterfield County Yields a Split-Ticket Election Result - State Navigate
In House District 73 in Chesterfield County, voters are splitting their tickets this year.
statenavigate.org
October 30, 2025 at 7:35 PM
NEW @statenavigate.org poll of VA HD-73
Governor 🔵 Spanberger +3
Lt. Governor 🔵 Hashmi +1
Attorney General 🔴 Miyares +7
House of Delegates🔴Earley +1
statenavigate.org/swing-distri...
Governor 🔵 Spanberger +3
Lt. Governor 🔵 Hashmi +1
Attorney General 🔴 Miyares +7
House of Delegates🔴Earley +1
statenavigate.org/swing-distri...
Hey y'all. So I gotta choose a platform to do most of my posts and it's gonna have to be X. I can't mirror everything. Make sure on Election Day you're keeping up with my account for turnout and race calls, may be able to post race calls here but IDK.
October 30, 2025 at 2:49 AM
Hey y'all. So I gotta choose a platform to do most of my posts and it's gonna have to be X. I can't mirror everything. Make sure on Election Day you're keeping up with my account for turnout and race calls, may be able to post race calls here but IDK.
Reposted by Chaz Nuttycombe
The Virginia gov polls are kind of all over the place.
TBC, variation isn't a bad thing. It suggests pollsters aren't herding, but Mary Radcliffe also picked up on an interesting trend that could be responsible.
She and @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social discussed it on the latest GD POLITICS pod:
TBC, variation isn't a bad thing. It suggests pollsters aren't herding, but Mary Radcliffe also picked up on an interesting trend that could be responsible.
She and @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social discussed it on the latest GD POLITICS pod:
October 28, 2025 at 2:51 PM
The Virginia gov polls are kind of all over the place.
TBC, variation isn't a bad thing. It suggests pollsters aren't herding, but Mary Radcliffe also picked up on an interesting trend that could be responsible.
She and @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social discussed it on the latest GD POLITICS pod:
TBC, variation isn't a bad thing. It suggests pollsters aren't herding, but Mary Radcliffe also picked up on an interesting trend that could be responsible.
She and @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social discussed it on the latest GD POLITICS pod:
In what is perhaps the most cutthroat move I've seen Virginia Democrats do in the General Assembly over the last decade, the General Assembly convenes tomorrow to try and begin the process of implementing a DEM gerrymander.
Here's your preview from me:
statenavigate.org/virginia-dem...
Here's your preview from me:
statenavigate.org/virginia-dem...
Virginia Democrats Call for “Scottmander” Redistricting Session - State Navigate
Nazi affinities, jokes about killing colleagues, speeding, and wishing for the death of police officers: just another month in Virginia politics.
statenavigate.org
October 25, 2025 at 4:54 PM
In what is perhaps the most cutthroat move I've seen Virginia Democrats do in the General Assembly over the last decade, the General Assembly convenes tomorrow to try and begin the process of implementing a DEM gerrymander.
Here's your preview from me:
statenavigate.org/virginia-dem...
Here's your preview from me:
statenavigate.org/virginia-dem...
🚨NEW POLL from @statenavigate.org
VA-GOV | 🔵Spanberger +13
VA-LG | 🔵Hashmi +11
VA-AG |🔵Jones +5
VA-HoD Generic |🔵
Mary Radcliffe and I with the breakdown and takeaways
statenavigate.org/state-naviga...
VA-GOV | 🔵Spanberger +13
VA-LG | 🔵Hashmi +11
VA-AG |🔵Jones +5
VA-HoD Generic |🔵
Mary Radcliffe and I with the breakdown and takeaways
statenavigate.org/state-naviga...
State Navigate Poll Shows Spanberger with 13-Point Lead in Virginia Governor Race - State Navigate
Spanberger reaches new heights in the Virginia Governor race, but a competitive race for Attorney General may result in a split statewide ticket result.
statenavigate.org
October 22, 2025 at 10:45 AM
🚨NEW POLL from @statenavigate.org
VA-GOV | 🔵Spanberger +13
VA-LG | 🔵Hashmi +11
VA-AG |🔵Jones +5
VA-HoD Generic |🔵
Mary Radcliffe and I with the breakdown and takeaways
statenavigate.org/state-naviga...
VA-GOV | 🔵Spanberger +13
VA-LG | 🔵Hashmi +11
VA-AG |🔵Jones +5
VA-HoD Generic |🔵
Mary Radcliffe and I with the breakdown and takeaways
statenavigate.org/state-naviga...
VA statewide poll out tomorrow AM. Enjoy
October 22, 2025 at 3:08 AM
VA statewide poll out tomorrow AM. Enjoy
NEW @statenavigate.org poll in VA HD-86
GOV | 🔵Spanberger +5
LG | 🔵Hashmi +1
AG | 🔵Jones +1
HoD | 🔵Thornton +6
statenavigate.org/new-poll-sho...
GOV | 🔵Spanberger +5
LG | 🔵Hashmi +1
AG | 🔵Jones +1
HoD | 🔵Thornton +6
statenavigate.org/new-poll-sho...
New Poll Shows Democrats Favored to Flip Virginia House Seat in Hampton Roads - State Navigate
A new poll conducted by State Navigate shows Virgil Thornton in a strong position to flip HD-86 in Hampton Roads.
statenavigate.org
October 21, 2025 at 5:58 PM
NEW @statenavigate.org poll in VA HD-86
GOV | 🔵Spanberger +5
LG | 🔵Hashmi +1
AG | 🔵Jones +1
HoD | 🔵Thornton +6
statenavigate.org/new-poll-sho...
GOV | 🔵Spanberger +5
LG | 🔵Hashmi +1
AG | 🔵Jones +1
HoD | 🔵Thornton +6
statenavigate.org/new-poll-sho...
VA HD-86 poll releasing momentarily.
VA statewide poll coming tomorrow.
Get notified on the releases:
statenavigate.org/newsletter/
VA statewide poll coming tomorrow.
Get notified on the releases:
statenavigate.org/newsletter/
Newsletter - State Navigate
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statenavigate.org
October 21, 2025 at 3:30 PM
VA HD-86 poll releasing momentarily.
VA statewide poll coming tomorrow.
Get notified on the releases:
statenavigate.org/newsletter/
VA statewide poll coming tomorrow.
Get notified on the releases:
statenavigate.org/newsletter/
The @StateNavigate VA HD-86 poll will release tomorrow.
Get notified the second it comes out. Subscribe to our free newsletter:
statenavigate.org/newsletter/
Get notified the second it comes out. Subscribe to our free newsletter:
statenavigate.org/newsletter/
Newsletter - State Navigate
SIGN UP FOR OUR NEWSLETTER:
statenavigate.org
October 20, 2025 at 9:15 PM
The @StateNavigate VA HD-86 poll will release tomorrow.
Get notified the second it comes out. Subscribe to our free newsletter:
statenavigate.org/newsletter/
Get notified the second it comes out. Subscribe to our free newsletter:
statenavigate.org/newsletter/
Party ID in every VA presidential & gubernatorial election since 2012
2012: D+7 ➡️ 2013 D+5
2016: D+7 ➡️ 2017 D+11
2020: D+2 ➡️ 2021 D+2
2024 D+4 ➡️ 2025 ???
It will be D+ something in 2025, IMO. I would wager between 5 and 9.
2012: D+7 ➡️ 2013 D+5
2016: D+7 ➡️ 2017 D+11
2020: D+2 ➡️ 2021 D+2
2024 D+4 ➡️ 2025 ???
It will be D+ something in 2025, IMO. I would wager between 5 and 9.
October 20, 2025 at 4:04 AM
Party ID in every VA presidential & gubernatorial election since 2012
2012: D+7 ➡️ 2013 D+5
2016: D+7 ➡️ 2017 D+11
2020: D+2 ➡️ 2021 D+2
2024 D+4 ➡️ 2025 ???
It will be D+ something in 2025, IMO. I would wager between 5 and 9.
2012: D+7 ➡️ 2013 D+5
2016: D+7 ➡️ 2017 D+11
2020: D+2 ➡️ 2021 D+2
2024 D+4 ➡️ 2025 ???
It will be D+ something in 2025, IMO. I would wager between 5 and 9.
Gonna try to post a bit more on here, hopefully pays off.
October 20, 2025 at 3:49 AM
Gonna try to post a bit more on here, hopefully pays off.
State Navigate Virginia statewide poll will be done in the field by 9:30 AM tomorrow. After that we're working on prepping it for release, as well as HD-86.
October 20, 2025 at 3:27 AM
State Navigate Virginia statewide poll will be done in the field by 9:30 AM tomorrow. After that we're working on prepping it for release, as well as HD-86.
Reposted by Chaz Nuttycombe
A political rematch is brewing in Virginia's House District 82, and according to Chaz Nuttycombe, it's set to test Spanberger's electoral liabilities.
Want to know more? Check out this story at https://loom.ly/T3K-Rn8
Want to know more? Check out this story at https://loom.ly/T3K-Rn8
September 18, 2025 at 1:06 PM
A political rematch is brewing in Virginia's House District 82, and according to Chaz Nuttycombe, it's set to test Spanberger's electoral liabilities.
Want to know more? Check out this story at https://loom.ly/T3K-Rn8
Want to know more? Check out this story at https://loom.ly/T3K-Rn8