Seeing that provisionals were allocated was such a pleasant surprise today, doing the formula is a pain for our staff.

Also to be clear I don't mean indefinitely I mean just on Election Night. If you want Election Night stuff for certain, we'll be posting it on X.

Also of note in VA-GOV is that Spanberger is winning the Richmond region (Richmond + Cville media markets in our regional clusters) by only 1pt less than she is in NoVA. She's knocking it out of the park in her homebase.

Our Virginia Navigate forecast updates at 8 AM Eastern. The biggest update will be in the AG race where Jay Jones has his slimmest-ever lead of just 4.6% in our forecast: AG is coming down to the wire. He has an 81% chance of winning at the moment.

projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states...

🔶Spanberger winning 68-29 among Moderates
🔶"Shy" Jay Jones voters exist: notice people who say they've already voted
🔶7% of Spanberger voters are voting for Miyares

Highlights:

🔶Among people who've already voted: Spanberger 64-35 Spanberger
🔶Among people who have yet to vote but plan to do so: 54-45 Spanberger
🔶Among independent voters: Spanberger 72-17
🔶Spanberger making large gains with lower income voters

VPAP is wrong. It's Harris +1.6.

Data should be a right, not a privilege. We want to conduct nonpartisan public polling for state government elections. Help us make it happen by making a tax-deductible donation to our polling fund today as we look to poll 2 more HoD seats!

statenavigate.org/state-naviga...