Chaz Nuttycombe
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chaznuttycombe.bsky.social
Chaz Nuttycombe
@chaznuttycombe.bsky.social
On X much more than here. Follow @statenavigate.org for our latest.

Executive Director of @statenavigate.org, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. VT Alumni. Opinions my own. Contact: chaz@statenavigate.org
Seeing that provisionals were allocated was such a pleasant surprise today, doing the formula is a pain for our staff.
November 13, 2025 at 2:16 AM
Also to be clear I don't mean indefinitely I mean just on Election Night. If you want Election Night stuff for certain, we'll be posting it on X.
October 30, 2025 at 7:31 PM
Also of note in VA-GOV is that Spanberger is winning the Richmond region (Richmond + Cville media markets in our regional clusters) by only 1pt less than she is in NoVA. She's knocking it out of the park in her homebase.
October 22, 2025 at 11:17 AM
Our Virginia Navigate forecast updates at 8 AM Eastern. The biggest update will be in the AG race where Jay Jones has his slimmest-ever lead of just 4.6% in our forecast: AG is coming down to the wire. He has an 81% chance of winning at the moment.

projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states...
2025 VA Forecasts
Take a look at State Navigate's 2025 Virginia forecasts.
projects.statenavigate.com
October 22, 2025 at 10:45 AM
🔶Spanberger winning 68-29 among Moderates
🔶"Shy" Jay Jones voters exist: notice people who say they've already voted
🔶7% of Spanberger voters are voting for Miyares
October 22, 2025 at 10:45 AM
Highlights:

🔶Among people who've already voted: Spanberger 64-35 Spanberger
🔶Among people who have yet to vote but plan to do so: 54-45 Spanberger
🔶Among independent voters: Spanberger 72-17
🔶Spanberger making large gains with lower income voters
October 22, 2025 at 10:45 AM
VPAP is wrong. It's Harris +1.6.
October 21, 2025 at 9:31 PM
Data should be a right, not a privilege. We want to conduct nonpartisan public polling for state government elections. Help us make it happen by making a tax-deductible donation to our polling fund today as we look to poll 2 more HoD seats!

statenavigate.org/state-naviga...
State Navigate’s Polling Fund - State Navigate
State Navigate's Polling Fund Public polling for state-level elections is scarce and often of low quality and high cost. State Navigate has built a team trained in political and data science to addres...
statenavigate.org
October 21, 2025 at 6:08 PM