Catarina Leão
@catarinaleao.bsky.social
Fellow in Advanced Quantitative Methods, Department of Methodology (LSE)
◦ DPhil in Politics (Oxford)
◦ Political Economy of Autocratic Legacies + Democratic Erosion
catarinaleao.com
◦ DPhil in Politics (Oxford)
◦ Political Economy of Autocratic Legacies + Democratic Erosion
catarinaleao.com
Pinned
Catarina Leão
@catarinaleao.bsky.social
· Jan 16
Já há Prémio da Associação Portuguesa de Ciência Política 2025 para a melhor tese de doutoramento: foi para a @catarinaleao.bsky.social, com o trabalho "Autocratic Legacies and Immunisation Against Extremism: A Rational Choice Approach.” Muitos parabéns!
It is a great honor to receive the prestigious 2025 Portuguese Political Science Association Prize for Best Doctoral Dissertation, especially given the excellence of this year’s jury.
I deeply appreciate the trust placed in my work!
I deeply appreciate the trust placed in my work!
Applications are open for the best Postdoctoral position I’ve had the pleasure of holding. Two years of full-time research in the amazing AxPo community. I couldn’t recommend it more!
The AxPo Observatory on Market Society Polarization at Sciences Po is offering a 2-year postdoctoral position focusing on socioeconomic polarization and fragmentation.
Ph.Ds in sociology, economics, political science, and related fields are encouraged to apply.
www.sciencespo.fr/axpo/applica...
Ph.Ds in sociology, economics, political science, and related fields are encouraged to apply.
www.sciencespo.fr/axpo/applica...
Call for Applications for Postdoctoral Research Position
Call for Applications for Postdoctoral Research Position at the AxPo Observatory of Market Society Polarization at Sciences Po, Paris, FranceGeneral informationPosition Definition: Post-doctoral resea...
www.sciencespo.fr
November 13, 2025 at 12:20 PM
Applications are open for the best Postdoctoral position I’ve had the pleasure of holding. Two years of full-time research in the amazing AxPo community. I couldn’t recommend it more!
Reposted by Catarina Leão
‼️Last chance to submit your paper or panel proposal to EPSS 2026 conference in Belfast is TODAY!
Don’t miss out - it will be full of great political science and fun social events! 👩🏫🥳
epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
Don’t miss out - it will be full of great political science and fun social events! 👩🏫🥳
epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
🚨 EPSS Belfast 2026 Call for Papers - One week to go! 🚨
Don't forget to submit your paper or panel proposal to the European Political Science Society @epssnet.bsky.social 2026 conference - just one week to go before the deadline: epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
Don't forget to submit your paper or panel proposal to the European Political Science Society @epssnet.bsky.social 2026 conference - just one week to go before the deadline: epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
Call for Papers | EPSS Belfast 2026 Conference
Submit your abstract or full paper for EPSS Belfast 2026. Share cutting‑edge political science research, network with peers & contribute to academic impact.
epssnet.org
November 7, 2025 at 12:04 PM
‼️Last chance to submit your paper or panel proposal to EPSS 2026 conference in Belfast is TODAY!
Don’t miss out - it will be full of great political science and fun social events! 👩🏫🥳
epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
Don’t miss out - it will be full of great political science and fun social events! 👩🏫🥳
epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
Reposted by Catarina Leão
New paper 🚨 “Vicarious denial: war crimes & online deliberation in Serbia” 🇷🇸 with @denisakost.bsky.social
We scrape 4 news sites + reader comments and blend text-as-data (keywords; neg. binomial/logistic; BERTopic/SBERT) with critical discourse analysis to track on-topic debate & denial.
We scrape 4 news sites + reader comments and blend text-as-data (keywords; neg. binomial/logistic; BERTopic/SBERT) with critical discourse analysis to track on-topic debate & denial.
October 9, 2025 at 1:29 AM
New paper 🚨 “Vicarious denial: war crimes & online deliberation in Serbia” 🇷🇸 with @denisakost.bsky.social
We scrape 4 news sites + reader comments and blend text-as-data (keywords; neg. binomial/logistic; BERTopic/SBERT) with critical discourse analysis to track on-topic debate & denial.
We scrape 4 news sites + reader comments and blend text-as-data (keywords; neg. binomial/logistic; BERTopic/SBERT) with critical discourse analysis to track on-topic debate & denial.
Today marks the end of my fellowship at AxPo @sciencespo.bsky.social. Grateful for the freedom to pursue my research and for the brilliant colleagues who made this journey so rewarding. In particular @oliviergodechot.bsky.social, Allison Rovny, Noam Titelman, Ulysse Lojkine, Meryem Bezzaz.
August 31, 2025 at 3:59 PM
Today marks the end of my fellowship at AxPo @sciencespo.bsky.social. Grateful for the freedom to pursue my research and for the brilliant colleagues who made this journey so rewarding. In particular @oliviergodechot.bsky.social, Allison Rovny, Noam Titelman, Ulysse Lojkine, Meryem Bezzaz.
Fellow academics, I need to replace my old Mac laptop. Do you think a MacBook Air can handle R, Stata, QGIS, etc., or do I need a MacBook Pro?
Many thanks for the tips!
Many thanks for the tips!
August 20, 2025 at 11:16 AM
Fellow academics, I need to replace my old Mac laptop. Do you think a MacBook Air can handle R, Stata, QGIS, etc., or do I need a MacBook Pro?
Many thanks for the tips!
Many thanks for the tips!
Reposted by Catarina Leão
3rd IAST-OXPO Conference in Political Economy
Tomorrow, @catarinaleao.bsky.social will present her work "Past Benefits Today Keep Extremism Away. Authoritarian Privileges Withdrawal and the Emergence of Contemporary Extremism: Evidence from Post-WWII Italy". ⤵️
www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-events/...
Tomorrow, @catarinaleao.bsky.social will present her work "Past Benefits Today Keep Extremism Away. Authoritarian Privileges Withdrawal and the Emergence of Contemporary Extremism: Evidence from Post-WWII Italy". ⤵️
www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-events/...
July 3, 2025 at 9:24 AM
3rd IAST-OXPO Conference in Political Economy
Tomorrow, @catarinaleao.bsky.social will present her work "Past Benefits Today Keep Extremism Away. Authoritarian Privileges Withdrawal and the Emergence of Contemporary Extremism: Evidence from Post-WWII Italy". ⤵️
www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-events/...
Tomorrow, @catarinaleao.bsky.social will present her work "Past Benefits Today Keep Extremism Away. Authoritarian Privileges Withdrawal and the Emergence of Contemporary Extremism: Evidence from Post-WWII Italy". ⤵️
www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-events/...
Reposted by Catarina Leão
🚨 Big News for European Political Science 🚨
We’re thrilled to announce the launch of the European Political Science Society (EPSS): a new, member-led, not-for-profit association built to support our scholarly community.
🔗 epssnet.org
Here’s a thread with everything you need to know.
🧵
We’re thrilled to announce the launch of the European Political Science Society (EPSS): a new, member-led, not-for-profit association built to support our scholarly community.
🔗 epssnet.org
Here’s a thread with everything you need to know.
🧵
June 26, 2025 at 5:07 PM
🚨 Big News for European Political Science 🚨
We’re thrilled to announce the launch of the European Political Science Society (EPSS): a new, member-led, not-for-profit association built to support our scholarly community.
🔗 epssnet.org
Here’s a thread with everything you need to know.
🧵
We’re thrilled to announce the launch of the European Political Science Society (EPSS): a new, member-led, not-for-profit association built to support our scholarly community.
🔗 epssnet.org
Here’s a thread with everything you need to know.
🧵
Reposted by Catarina Leão
#EPSA2025 starts tomorrow!
A dozen of our scholars have papers on political lotteries, challenges to democracy, autocratic legacies, the fate of mainstream parties, group-targeting in politics and media, climate politics, culture wars / backfire...
👉Details here: www.sciencespo.fr/centre-etude...
A dozen of our scholars have papers on political lotteries, challenges to democracy, autocratic legacies, the fate of mainstream parties, group-targeting in politics and media, climate politics, culture wars / backfire...
👉Details here: www.sciencespo.fr/centre-etude...
June 25, 2025 at 3:37 PM
#EPSA2025 starts tomorrow!
A dozen of our scholars have papers on political lotteries, challenges to democracy, autocratic legacies, the fate of mainstream parties, group-targeting in politics and media, climate politics, culture wars / backfire...
👉Details here: www.sciencespo.fr/centre-etude...
A dozen of our scholars have papers on political lotteries, challenges to democracy, autocratic legacies, the fate of mainstream parties, group-targeting in politics and media, climate politics, culture wars / backfire...
👉Details here: www.sciencespo.fr/centre-etude...
Reposted by Catarina Leão
I look forward to meeting many of you soon in Madrid for EPSA 2025.
In case that’s helpful to anyone, here are some of my personal Madrid favorites:
In case that’s helpful to anyone, here are some of my personal Madrid favorites:
June 23, 2025 at 2:30 PM
I look forward to meeting many of you soon in Madrid for EPSA 2025.
In case that’s helpful to anyone, here are some of my personal Madrid favorites:
In case that’s helpful to anyone, here are some of my personal Madrid favorites:
Reposted by Catarina Leão
According to «objective» democracy measures, we have learned nothing about the trajectory and state of democracy in the US since January. That strikes me as pretty damn absurd..
June 13, 2025 at 4:37 PM
According to «objective» democracy measures, we have learned nothing about the trajectory and state of democracy in the US since January. That strikes me as pretty damn absurd..
If you read just one opinion piece about the latest Portuguese election, make it this one.
Para o Expresso, escrevo acerca de como as eleições de domingo colocam PT numa conjuntura crítica.
Estas eleições representam uma mudança de panorama. As ações dos líderes partidários neste momento vão ditar as regras informais do jogo político daqui em diante.
expresso.pt/opiniao/2025...
Estas eleições representam uma mudança de panorama. As ações dos líderes partidários neste momento vão ditar as regras informais do jogo político daqui em diante.
expresso.pt/opiniao/2025...
May 23, 2025 at 2:24 PM
If you read just one opinion piece about the latest Portuguese election, make it this one.
Reposted by Catarina Leão
I've been running online surveys in #Romania about the presidential elections. Lots of crazy stuff but the graph below took me by surprise (and I'm someone who studies communist legacies). This is the share of the second-round vote for Simion as a function of what respondents think of Ceaușescu.
May 13, 2025 at 7:30 PM
I've been running online surveys in #Romania about the presidential elections. Lots of crazy stuff but the graph below took me by surprise (and I'm someone who studies communist legacies). This is the share of the second-round vote for Simion as a function of what respondents think of Ceaușescu.
Reposted by Catarina Leão
You've (probably) got mail! ✉️
Heading to #EPSA2025 in Madrid?
Consider signing up to our buddy/mentor scheme that the diversity committee has set up to help first-time attendees navigate Europe's biggest political science conference
Questions? Send them over to @alonadolinsky.com or me 🙂
Heading to #EPSA2025 in Madrid?
Consider signing up to our buddy/mentor scheme that the diversity committee has set up to help first-time attendees navigate Europe's biggest political science conference
Questions? Send them over to @alonadolinsky.com or me 🙂
May 13, 2025 at 11:19 AM
You've (probably) got mail! ✉️
Heading to #EPSA2025 in Madrid?
Consider signing up to our buddy/mentor scheme that the diversity committee has set up to help first-time attendees navigate Europe's biggest political science conference
Questions? Send them over to @alonadolinsky.com or me 🙂
Heading to #EPSA2025 in Madrid?
Consider signing up to our buddy/mentor scheme that the diversity committee has set up to help first-time attendees navigate Europe's biggest political science conference
Questions? Send them over to @alonadolinsky.com or me 🙂
Overleaf is down. Use Word, or preserve your dignity by doing nothing.
May 14, 2025 at 7:46 AM
Overleaf is down. Use Word, or preserve your dignity by doing nothing.
Boa escolha de nome.
Robert Francis Prevost é norte-americano e escolheu o nome Leão XIV. Foi nomeado cardeal pelo Papa Francisco em Setembro de 2023.
🔴 Leia aqui: tinyurl.com/4a8vxrvp
🔴 Leia aqui: tinyurl.com/4a8vxrvp
May 9, 2025 at 7:09 AM
Boa escolha de nome.
It’s so funny how MAGA thinks the Pope is ‘woke’ for his views on migration and helping the poor—when that’s literally one of the most basic tenets of Christianity. The level of dissociation is off the charts.
May 9, 2025 at 5:33 AM
It’s so funny how MAGA thinks the Pope is ‘woke’ for his views on migration and helping the poor—when that’s literally one of the most basic tenets of Christianity. The level of dissociation is off the charts.
Amen to that
The new Pope didn't tweet once in 2024. In 2025, he's posted 5 times, in which he:
- Criticized JD Vance's views on Catholicism and Jesus
- Posted an article opposing Trump's immigration policies
- Retweeted twice about the Pope's health
- Retweeted a criticism of Trump & Bukele's laughter at KAG.
- Criticized JD Vance's views on Catholicism and Jesus
- Posted an article opposing Trump's immigration policies
- Retweeted twice about the Pope's health
- Retweeted a criticism of Trump & Bukele's laughter at KAG.
May 8, 2025 at 6:45 PM
Amen to that
Reposted by Catarina Leão
Even established authoritarian regimes consider arresting defiant judges an extreme tactic—a serious escalation usually reserved for after one-party rule is firmly entrenched. Seeing a judge arrested in the US today should alarm everyone who values democratic governance. This cannot be allowed. 🧵
April 25, 2025 at 3:14 PM
Even established authoritarian regimes consider arresting defiant judges an extreme tactic—a serious escalation usually reserved for after one-party rule is firmly entrenched. Seeing a judge arrested in the US today should alarm everyone who values democratic governance. This cannot be allowed. 🧵
Reposted by Catarina Leão
My first post at the newly revived @misofact.bsky.social is a nerdy take on why it seems like experts are decrying rising autocracy in thd US, but for most folks, life goes on as usual. How much authoritarianism has the US actually seen so far in Trump-II? open.substack.com/pub/misofact...
When a democracy falls, do the people know?
A simple four-category test applied to acts over the first 90 days of Trump-II shows autocracy rising in the US due primarily to violations of the rule of law, which many people don't perceive.
open.substack.com
April 24, 2025 at 11:37 AM
My first post at the newly revived @misofact.bsky.social is a nerdy take on why it seems like experts are decrying rising autocracy in thd US, but for most folks, life goes on as usual. How much authoritarianism has the US actually seen so far in Trump-II? open.substack.com/pub/misofact...
Reposted by Catarina Leão
Just posted updated version of our DID textbook! We now have drafts of all chapters, including the one on general designs! Now you can tell your friends still on X that they are DID-outdated :-) Happy easter for those of you that celebrate it. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Credible Answers to Hard Questions: Differences-in-Differences for Natural Experiments
This book introduces applied researchers to modern Differences-in-Differences (DID) methods, that they can use to obtain credible answers to hard causal inferen
papers.ssrn.com
April 18, 2025 at 2:28 PM
Just posted updated version of our DID textbook! We now have drafts of all chapters, including the one on general designs! Now you can tell your friends still on X that they are DID-outdated :-) Happy easter for those of you that celebrate it. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Reposted by Catarina Leão
🚨 New paper🚨 on how AI can help us doing research (or not) with my office mate @phbono.bsky.social
We test whether LLMs (ChatGPT, MistralAI) can be used to ideologically position parties in real time.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
1/3
We test whether LLMs (ChatGPT, MistralAI) can be used to ideologically position parties in real time.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
1/3
Can ChatGPT accurately identify the position of parties? A validation study with an expert survey in France - Damien Bol, Pierre-Henri Bono, 2025
We evaluate whether ChatGPT can be used to estimate the ideological positions of parties in real time. Compared to other methods, ChatGPT can be used at all tim...
journals.sagepub.com
April 18, 2025 at 8:47 AM
🚨 New paper🚨 on how AI can help us doing research (or not) with my office mate @phbono.bsky.social
We test whether LLMs (ChatGPT, MistralAI) can be used to ideologically position parties in real time.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
1/3
We test whether LLMs (ChatGPT, MistralAI) can be used to ideologically position parties in real time.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
1/3
Reposted by Catarina Leão
#VendrediLecture📚
Do citizens learn more after rejecting EU referendums?
@ronjasczepanski.bsky.social new study in Journal of European Integration finds no major knowledge gain post-vote. Dive into the analysis ⤵️
www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1...
Do citizens learn more after rejecting EU referendums?
@ronjasczepanski.bsky.social new study in Journal of European Integration finds no major knowledge gain post-vote. Dive into the analysis ⤵️
www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1...
April 18, 2025 at 8:04 AM
#VendrediLecture📚
Do citizens learn more after rejecting EU referendums?
@ronjasczepanski.bsky.social new study in Journal of European Integration finds no major knowledge gain post-vote. Dive into the analysis ⤵️
www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1...
Do citizens learn more after rejecting EU referendums?
@ronjasczepanski.bsky.social new study in Journal of European Integration finds no major knowledge gain post-vote. Dive into the analysis ⤵️
www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1...
Reposted by Catarina Leão
“In March, @stevelevitsky.bsky.social and fellow prof @ryanenos.bsky.social authored a letter, co-signed by 800 colleagues, calling on Harvard to defend itself and academic freedom more broadly by mounting ‘a coordinated opposition to anti-democratic attacks.’
Their pressure seems to have helped…”
Their pressure seems to have helped…”
This professor studies dictatorships. He helped convince Harvard to stand up to Trump
Harvard professor Steve Levitsky has spent decades studying democracies and how they fail. He's now raising alarm bells over what he sees as a slide toward autocracy under President Trump.
www.latimes.com
April 16, 2025 at 10:57 PM
“In March, @stevelevitsky.bsky.social and fellow prof @ryanenos.bsky.social authored a letter, co-signed by 800 colleagues, calling on Harvard to defend itself and academic freedom more broadly by mounting ‘a coordinated opposition to anti-democratic attacks.’
Their pressure seems to have helped…”
Their pressure seems to have helped…”
Reposted by Catarina Leão
"You boy! What tariff is it today?"
April 9, 2025 at 7:56 PM
"You boy! What tariff is it today?"