Catarina Leão
@catarinaleao.bsky.social
Fellow in Advanced Quantitative Methods, Department of Methodology (LSE) | DPhil in Politics (Oxford)
Political Economy of Autocratic Legacies + Democratic Erosion
catarinaleao.com
Political Economy of Autocratic Legacies + Democratic Erosion
catarinaleao.com
Pinned
Catarina Leão
@catarinaleao.bsky.social
· Jan 16
Já há Prémio da Associação Portuguesa de Ciência Política 2025 para a melhor tese de doutoramento: foi para a @catarinaleao.bsky.social, com o trabalho "Autocratic Legacies and Immunisation Against Extremism: A Rational Choice Approach.” Muitos parabéns!
It is a great honor to receive the prestigious 2025 Portuguese Political Science Association Prize for Best Doctoral Dissertation, especially given the excellence of this year’s jury.
I deeply appreciate the trust placed in my work!
I deeply appreciate the trust placed in my work!
Reposted by Catarina Leão
Is hype about AI justified?
Cristobal Garibay-Petersen @lse-ei.bsky.social @mlorimer.bsky.social and @neuralisa.bsky.social argue AI discourse has gone too far, limiting the space for democratic engagement with and control of the technology @lseeuroppblog.bsky.social
Cristobal Garibay-Petersen @lse-ei.bsky.social @mlorimer.bsky.social and @neuralisa.bsky.social argue AI discourse has gone too far, limiting the space for democratic engagement with and control of the technology @lseeuroppblog.bsky.social
Should you believe the AI hype? Probably not
Public discourse around AI has gone beyond what its technical specifications warrant, limiting the space for democratic engagement and control.
blogs.lse.ac.uk
February 10, 2026 at 1:15 PM
Is hype about AI justified?
Cristobal Garibay-Petersen @lse-ei.bsky.social @mlorimer.bsky.social and @neuralisa.bsky.social argue AI discourse has gone too far, limiting the space for democratic engagement with and control of the technology @lseeuroppblog.bsky.social
Cristobal Garibay-Petersen @lse-ei.bsky.social @mlorimer.bsky.social and @neuralisa.bsky.social argue AI discourse has gone too far, limiting the space for democratic engagement with and control of the technology @lseeuroppblog.bsky.social
February 9, 2026 at 8:57 AM
Reposted by Catarina Leão
Center-left António José Seguro was elected Portugal’s next president yesterday, defeating his far-right opponent by a two-to-one margin.
Center left beats far right to Portugal’s presidency
Former Socialist Party leader António José Seguro defeated far-right leader André Ventura to become the country’s next head of state.
politico.eu
February 9, 2026 at 8:32 AM
Center-left António José Seguro was elected Portugal’s next president yesterday, defeating his far-right opponent by a two-to-one margin.
Reposted by Catarina Leão
🧵 New version of our paper (@bcegerod.bsky.social) is finally online: "How Many is Enough? Sample Size in Staggered Difference-in-Differences Designs"
We show that even well-identified DiD studies are often underpowered; sample sizes needed are surprisingly large
Paper: osf.io/preprints/os... 1/6
We show that even well-identified DiD studies are often underpowered; sample sizes needed are surprisingly large
Paper: osf.io/preprints/os... 1/6
February 3, 2026 at 2:46 PM
🧵 New version of our paper (@bcegerod.bsky.social) is finally online: "How Many is Enough? Sample Size in Staggered Difference-in-Differences Designs"
We show that even well-identified DiD studies are often underpowered; sample sizes needed are surprisingly large
Paper: osf.io/preprints/os... 1/6
We show that even well-identified DiD studies are often underpowered; sample sizes needed are surprisingly large
Paper: osf.io/preprints/os... 1/6
Reposted by Catarina Leão
Excited about chairing @bogatyrev.bsky.social in the @lsegovernment.bsky.social Political Behaviour Seminar at 4pm today. Konstantin will present his paper "Shifting Ground". Come along if you are in London, or join us on Zoom: www.lse.ac.uk/government/r...
January 29, 2026 at 11:12 AM
Excited about chairing @bogatyrev.bsky.social in the @lsegovernment.bsky.social Political Behaviour Seminar at 4pm today. Konstantin will present his paper "Shifting Ground". Come along if you are in London, or join us on Zoom: www.lse.ac.uk/government/r...
Reposted by Catarina Leão
Demographic cues (eg, names, dialect) are widely used to study how LLM behavior may change depending on user demographics. Such cues are often assumed interchangeable.
🚨 We show they are not: different cues yield different model behavior for the same group and different conclusions on LLM bias. 🧵👇
🚨 We show they are not: different cues yield different model behavior for the same group and different conclusions on LLM bias. 🧵👇
January 27, 2026 at 1:07 PM
Demographic cues (eg, names, dialect) are widely used to study how LLM behavior may change depending on user demographics. Such cues are often assumed interchangeable.
🚨 We show they are not: different cues yield different model behavior for the same group and different conclusions on LLM bias. 🧵👇
🚨 We show they are not: different cues yield different model behavior for the same group and different conclusions on LLM bias. 🧵👇
Reposted by Catarina Leão
Regine Paul, Vali Stan and I have analysed how deeply #AI is entangled in global politics and corporate profit-hunting. “The AI Matrix” is the result – and the digital book-version is open access: www.agendapub.com/page/detail/... (Link doesn't work? Try this one: www.regulaite.eu/images/pdf/M...)
November 25, 2025 at 7:22 AM
Regine Paul, Vali Stan and I have analysed how deeply #AI is entangled in global politics and corporate profit-hunting. “The AI Matrix” is the result – and the digital book-version is open access: www.agendapub.com/page/detail/... (Link doesn't work? Try this one: www.regulaite.eu/images/pdf/M...)
Reposted by Catarina Leão
Rejection doesn't have to be ego-shattering—and the people most likely to push through it tend to share a specific quality, Anna Holmes writes.
The Upside of Professional Rejection
There’s a better way to approach no’s in your work life.
bit.ly
January 22, 2026 at 10:26 PM
Rejection doesn't have to be ego-shattering—and the people most likely to push through it tend to share a specific quality, Anna Holmes writes.
Reposted by Catarina Leão
Y’all were laughing, but once you leave the EU you start to miss the attached bottle caps real fast.
January 21, 2026 at 3:36 PM
Y’all were laughing, but once you leave the EU you start to miss the attached bottle caps real fast.
Reposted by Catarina Leão
Mafia goon: Nice house you got here...it'd be a shame if something happened to it
Media outlets: Mafia goon rules out use of force. Expresses regret at the mere thought of it
Media outlets: Mafia goon rules out use of force. Expresses regret at the mere thought of it
January 21, 2026 at 2:36 PM
Mafia goon: Nice house you got here...it'd be a shame if something happened to it
Media outlets: Mafia goon rules out use of force. Expresses regret at the mere thought of it
Media outlets: Mafia goon rules out use of force. Expresses regret at the mere thought of it
Reposted by Catarina Leão
Madman theory but you're actually mad.
June 22, 2025 at 11:06 PM
Madman theory but you're actually mad.
Brilliant !
🎉 NEW PUBLICATION🎉
Our paper on "the effect of symbolic policies on climate policy support" has just been published in the APSR ! @apsrjournal.bsky.social (open access)
The end of a long and rewarding journey with the best co-authors @malojan.bsky.social @luissattelmayer.bsky.social
(1/6)
Our paper on "the effect of symbolic policies on climate policy support" has just been published in the APSR ! @apsrjournal.bsky.social (open access)
The end of a long and rewarding journey with the best co-authors @malojan.bsky.social @luissattelmayer.bsky.social
(1/6)
January 19, 2026 at 11:28 AM
Brilliant !
Reposted by Catarina Leão
This is a great postdoc opportunity on a very interesting project on the association between discrimination and social inequality
@cris-sciencespo.bsky.social
www.sciencespo.fr/cris/en/news...
@cris-sciencespo.bsky.social
www.sciencespo.fr/cris/en/news...
CRIS is recruiting a postdoctoral researcher for the DISEQUAL project
The Discrimination-Inequality Cycle: Bridging Unequal Treatment and Unequal Outcomes across Countries, Regions and Workplaces
www.sciencespo.fr
January 19, 2026 at 8:52 AM
This is a great postdoc opportunity on a very interesting project on the association between discrimination and social inequality
@cris-sciencespo.bsky.social
www.sciencespo.fr/cris/en/news...
@cris-sciencespo.bsky.social
www.sciencespo.fr/cris/en/news...
Reposted by Catarina Leão
Portugal is having a presidential election tomorrow (Sunday).
It is a fairly unusual one, which is representative of how much the political landscape has changed in the country.
Here is some quick context about it, in case that is of interest:
1/9
It is a fairly unusual one, which is representative of how much the political landscape has changed in the country.
Here is some quick context about it, in case that is of interest:
1/9
January 17, 2026 at 6:06 PM
Portugal is having a presidential election tomorrow (Sunday).
It is a fairly unusual one, which is representative of how much the political landscape has changed in the country.
Here is some quick context about it, in case that is of interest:
1/9
It is a fairly unusual one, which is representative of how much the political landscape has changed in the country.
Here is some quick context about it, in case that is of interest:
1/9
Reposted by Catarina Leão
#tugasky: não deixem de votar hoje. Todas as eleições importam e estas, num momento em que o país está a definir o panorama político no pos-bipartidarismo, não o são menos.
January 18, 2026 at 12:28 PM
#tugasky: não deixem de votar hoje. Todas as eleições importam e estas, num momento em que o país está a definir o panorama político no pos-bipartidarismo, não o são menos.
Reposted by Catarina Leão
🚨Job alert! The ENDOW project is hiring a Research Officer in Research Database Management, to be based at @lsemethodology.bsky.social.
Oversee & expand our database & contribute to research on social & economic inequality.
Deadline 15 February. Share & reach out!
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
Oversee & expand our database & contribute to research on social & economic inequality.
Deadline 15 February. Share & reach out!
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
January 15, 2026 at 11:13 AM
🚨Job alert! The ENDOW project is hiring a Research Officer in Research Database Management, to be based at @lsemethodology.bsky.social.
Oversee & expand our database & contribute to research on social & economic inequality.
Deadline 15 February. Share & reach out!
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
Oversee & expand our database & contribute to research on social & economic inequality.
Deadline 15 February. Share & reach out!
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
Calling it “a regime-change war” fully obscures what’s actually happening right now.
I doubt Trump is concerned with democratization as much as he is with waging a war to distract from problems at home, with oil extraction as a perk.
I doubt Trump is concerned with democratization as much as he is with waging a war to distract from problems at home, with oil extraction as a perk.
“Whether the outcome is ultimately good for Venezuelans, as I hope, or bad, Trump has betrayed Americans,” Conor Friedersdorf argues. “He could have tried to persuade Congress or the public to give him permission to use force. He didn’t bother.”
Trump’s Risky War in Venezuela
The president has violated the Constitution and is showing contempt for the will of the public.
bit.ly
January 3, 2026 at 6:30 PM
Calling it “a regime-change war” fully obscures what’s actually happening right now.
I doubt Trump is concerned with democratization as much as he is with waging a war to distract from problems at home, with oil extraction as a perk.
I doubt Trump is concerned with democratization as much as he is with waging a war to distract from problems at home, with oil extraction as a perk.
Very important work imo. We know surprisingly little about what “good” description actually looks like.
🚨 “Good Description” with @annagbusse.bsky.social 🚨
What sets 'good' description apart from 'mere' description?
We develop a framework for evaluating descriptive research, whether we are doing it as scholars or assessing it as readers.
Two main contributions...
🔗📄 tinyurl.com/gooddesc
What sets 'good' description apart from 'mere' description?
We develop a framework for evaluating descriptive research, whether we are doing it as scholars or assessing it as readers.
Two main contributions...
🔗📄 tinyurl.com/gooddesc
good_description/good_description_ddk_agb.pdf at main · ddekadt/good_description
Homepage of "Good Description" by Daniel de Kadt & Anna Grzymala-Busse - ddekadt/good_description
tinyurl.com
December 16, 2025 at 1:12 PM
Very important work imo. We know surprisingly little about what “good” description actually looks like.
Repeat after me: replication papers are not the academic equivalent of diss tracks.
December 16, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Repeat after me: replication papers are not the academic equivalent of diss tracks.
Reposted by Catarina Leão
went to bed with a mass shooting, waking up with a different mass shooting
December 14, 2025 at 11:56 AM
went to bed with a mass shooting, waking up with a different mass shooting
Reposted by Catarina Leão
📢 📢 Call for Papers
IV Yale–UB Historical Political Economy Workshop
Organized by @Didacqueralt.bsky.social & @Cescamat.bsky.social
🎤 Keynote: Lisa Blaydes (Stanford)
📍 University of Barcelona
🗓 June 29–30, 2026
Submit your papers by Jan 21, 2026:
shorturl.at/oZTNy
#pleaseRT
IV Yale–UB Historical Political Economy Workshop
Organized by @Didacqueralt.bsky.social & @Cescamat.bsky.social
🎤 Keynote: Lisa Blaydes (Stanford)
📍 University of Barcelona
🗓 June 29–30, 2026
Submit your papers by Jan 21, 2026:
shorturl.at/oZTNy
#pleaseRT
December 2, 2025 at 9:20 AM
📢 📢 Call for Papers
IV Yale–UB Historical Political Economy Workshop
Organized by @Didacqueralt.bsky.social & @Cescamat.bsky.social
🎤 Keynote: Lisa Blaydes (Stanford)
📍 University of Barcelona
🗓 June 29–30, 2026
Submit your papers by Jan 21, 2026:
shorturl.at/oZTNy
#pleaseRT
IV Yale–UB Historical Political Economy Workshop
Organized by @Didacqueralt.bsky.social & @Cescamat.bsky.social
🎤 Keynote: Lisa Blaydes (Stanford)
📍 University of Barcelona
🗓 June 29–30, 2026
Submit your papers by Jan 21, 2026:
shorturl.at/oZTNy
#pleaseRT
Reposted by Catarina Leão
PhD opportunity at the University of Oxford. The Morelli scholarship funds a doctoral student to work with me on on democratic backsliding, strategies of democratic defense and regeneration, or the rise of illiberalism. Deadline Jan 9. More information at users.ox.ac.uk/~ssfc0073/
December 1, 2025 at 11:39 AM
PhD opportunity at the University of Oxford. The Morelli scholarship funds a doctoral student to work with me on on democratic backsliding, strategies of democratic defense and regeneration, or the rise of illiberalism. Deadline Jan 9. More information at users.ox.ac.uk/~ssfc0073/
Applications are open for the best Postdoctoral position I’ve had the pleasure of holding. Two years of full-time research in the amazing AxPo community. I couldn’t recommend it more!
The AxPo Observatory on Market Society Polarization at Sciences Po is offering a 2-year postdoctoral position focusing on socioeconomic polarization and fragmentation.
Ph.Ds in sociology, economics, political science, and related fields are encouraged to apply.
www.sciencespo.fr/axpo/applica...
Ph.Ds in sociology, economics, political science, and related fields are encouraged to apply.
www.sciencespo.fr/axpo/applica...
Call for Applications for Postdoctoral Research Position
Call for Applications for Postdoctoral Research Position at the AxPo Observatory of Market Society Polarization at Sciences Po, Paris, FranceGeneral informationPosition Definition: Post-doctoral resea...
www.sciencespo.fr
November 13, 2025 at 12:20 PM
Applications are open for the best Postdoctoral position I’ve had the pleasure of holding. Two years of full-time research in the amazing AxPo community. I couldn’t recommend it more!
Reposted by Catarina Leão
‼️Last chance to submit your paper or panel proposal to EPSS 2026 conference in Belfast is TODAY!
Don’t miss out - it will be full of great political science and fun social events! 👩🏫🥳
epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
Don’t miss out - it will be full of great political science and fun social events! 👩🏫🥳
epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
🚨 EPSS Belfast 2026 Call for Papers - One week to go! 🚨
Don't forget to submit your paper or panel proposal to the European Political Science Society @epssnet.bsky.social 2026 conference - just one week to go before the deadline: epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
Don't forget to submit your paper or panel proposal to the European Political Science Society @epssnet.bsky.social 2026 conference - just one week to go before the deadline: epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
Call for Papers | EPSS Belfast 2026 Conference
Submit your abstract or full paper for EPSS Belfast 2026. Share cutting‑edge political science research, network with peers & contribute to academic impact.
epssnet.org
November 7, 2025 at 12:04 PM
‼️Last chance to submit your paper or panel proposal to EPSS 2026 conference in Belfast is TODAY!
Don’t miss out - it will be full of great political science and fun social events! 👩🏫🥳
epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
Don’t miss out - it will be full of great political science and fun social events! 👩🏫🥳
epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
Reposted by Catarina Leão
New paper 🚨 “Vicarious denial: war crimes & online deliberation in Serbia” 🇷🇸 with @denisakost.bsky.social
We scrape 4 news sites + reader comments and blend text-as-data (keywords; neg. binomial/logistic; BERTopic/SBERT) with critical discourse analysis to track on-topic debate & denial.
We scrape 4 news sites + reader comments and blend text-as-data (keywords; neg. binomial/logistic; BERTopic/SBERT) with critical discourse analysis to track on-topic debate & denial.
October 9, 2025 at 1:29 AM
New paper 🚨 “Vicarious denial: war crimes & online deliberation in Serbia” 🇷🇸 with @denisakost.bsky.social
We scrape 4 news sites + reader comments and blend text-as-data (keywords; neg. binomial/logistic; BERTopic/SBERT) with critical discourse analysis to track on-topic debate & denial.
We scrape 4 news sites + reader comments and blend text-as-data (keywords; neg. binomial/logistic; BERTopic/SBERT) with critical discourse analysis to track on-topic debate & denial.