Nick Byrd, Ph.D.
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byrdnick.com
Nick Byrd, Ph.D.
@byrdnick.com
I study how to improve decisions and well-being at @GeisingerCollege.bsky.social.

🎓 gScholar: shorturl.at/uBDPW

▶️ youtube.com/@ByrdNick

👨‍💻 psychologytoday.com/us/blog/upon-reflection

📓 byrdnick.com/blog

🎙️ byrdnick.com/pod
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The #AI companies are onto me!

#OpenAI recently automated the identification of tasks worthy of "slow" #reasoning.

In "Strategic Reflectivism...", I showed why that's a key to #intelligence (in humans as well).

The #preprint (accepted in #LNCS) is now available as an audiopaper (a.k.a. #podcast)👇
Upon Reflection, Ep. 16: Strategic Reflectivism | Nick Byrd, Ph.D.
In late 2025, artificial intelligence companies like OpenAI popularized the idea of automating the process of selecting which model is best for a task. This allowed users to simply send their promp…
byrdnick.com
An #ethics Turing test?

Twenty people texted a #chatbot over a month before a 2-hour interview about whether they thought the #AI was able to extract, embody, and explain human values.

Thirteen "left the study convinced..."

doi.org/10.48550/arX...

#philosophy #edu #LLMs #tech
AI and My Values: User Perceptions of LLMs' Ability to...
Does AI understand human values? While this remains an open philosophical question, we take a pragmatic stance by introducing VAPT, the Value-Alignment Perception Toolkit, for studying how LLMs...
doi.org
February 12, 2026 at 12:03 PM
Are text-message #healthScreening reminders more effective than mailed-letter reminders?

Both caused similar increases in the rate of #cancer screening in this pragmatic trial that included over 5000 older patients with overdue mail-in colorectal tests.
Behavioral Interventions Improve Mailed Colorectal Cancer Screening Among Overdue Patients in a Randomized Trial
Mailed fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) can boost colorectal cancer screening (CRC) rates, but response rates remain limited. We evaluated if behavi…
doi.org
February 11, 2026 at 12:01 PM
Reposted by Nick Byrd, Ph.D.
A quick lesson in research conflicts of interest:
This 2024 paper in the Journal of Dietary Supplements showed that an oxygen "nanobubble beverage" improved power output in a 16-km cycling TT by ~4%, and in repeated Wingates by ~7%. 🧵1/7
February 11, 2026 at 9:36 AM
Reposted by Nick Byrd, Ph.D.
A short note on questionable AI studies or why friends don’t let friends make %-claims based on small-n qualitative research interview reports

New week, new AI newsletter from Marina and myself here at RISJ: buff.ly/ckaUSn9
February 11, 2026 at 10:06 AM
Sometimes I wonder, “Why do those people on TV, social media, podcasts (etc.) broadcast such unreflective reactions to news?”

And then I wonder, “Why do so many people follow or even pay for (or tolerate the ads that fund) their never-ending supply of unreflective reactions?”
a man with his mouth open and the word why on his face
Alt: Neil Patrick Harris melodramatically shaking his head and asking, “Why?”
media.tenor.com
February 11, 2026 at 12:13 AM
How else can automated text messages educate medical patients?

Adding automated text messages to a paper-based decision aid program improved lung #cancer screening knowledge and screening rates.

doi.org/10.2196/69044

#medicine #edu #decisionScience #healthScreening #oncology
Previsit Preparation for Shared Decision-Making in Lung Cancer Screening in Primary Care Using a Paper Decision Aid and an Automated Text Messaging Program: Quasi-Experimental Pilot Study
Background: Patient-provider discussions and shared decision-making (SDM) are essential for tailoring lung cancer screening (LCS) decisions to individual patients. However, implementation of SDM in primary care settings is challenging. Innovative approaches are needed to reach patients eligible for LCS and help them prepare for LCS discussions in primary care settings and to increase the uptake of LCS. Objective: We piloted pre-visit preparation comparing two strategies: a paper decision aid (DA) (DA group), and an enhanced comparator strategy consisting of the paper DA plus an automated text message program (DA+TM group) designed to promote patient-provider LCS discussions. We explored feasibility and gathered preliminary data on its potential effects on LCS discussions, decision-making, and LCS uptake in primary care settings. Methods: In a sequential quasi-experimental pilot, we recruited patients who were eligible for LCS in a single academic healthcare system. Prior to an upcoming visit, participants in both groups received a paper-based DA by mail. In the DA+TM group, participants also received a series of automated text messages to help them prepare for their LCS discussions. We monitored participant recruitment and retention, and patient engagement in DA and text messages. In exploratory analyses, we assessed patient-provider discussion of LCS, SDM, patient knowledge, decision conflict at baseline and in follow-up telephone surveys, and LCS completion measured by electronic health records. Results: We enrolled 49 participants (DA group = 19, DA+TM group = 30). Participants were predominantly White, with a median age of 61.0 (IQR, 57.0-65.0), and 58.3% were female. Engagement in both groups was high. LCS knowledge significantly improved in the DA+TM group (4.5 baseline vs. 6.0 follow-up; P=.003), versus no change in the DA group (5.0 baseline vs. 5.0 follow-up, P=.23). Median LCS knowledge change from baseline to follow-up was 0.5 (IQR -1.0-2.5) in the DA group, and 1.5 (IQR 0-3.0) in the DA+TM group (P=.24). Decision conflict in both groups significantly decreased (DA group: 37.5 baseline vs. 0 follow-up, P<.001; DA+TM group: 50.0 baseline vs. 20.0 follow-up, P=.003). The median SDM process score (a measure of SDM) was 3.0 in the DA group and 2.0 in the DA+TM group (P=.11). The LCS completion rates were 5.3% in the DA group and 31.0% in the DA+TM group at 3 months (P=.07), and 26.3% in the DA group, and 34.5% in the DA+TM group at 6 months (P=.75). Conclusions: We showed that pre-visit preparation was feasible in primary care settings. The enhanced strategy utilizing text messaging not only reduced decisional conflict but also improved LCS knowledge. An enhanced, text message-based strategy has the potential to reach and engage broader LCS-eligible populations and prepare patients for LCS discussions with their primary care providers, which may ultimately improve informed decision-making and LCS uptake.
doi.org
February 10, 2026 at 12:03 PM
Can researchers detect #AI bots taking paid surveys?

#Prolific tested humans and #LLM agents with various #dataQuality checks.
- The company says they caught 100% of the non-humans.
- My take-away: #reCAPTCHA and #mouseTracking caught 95%

www.prolific.com/res...

#surveyMethods
February 9, 2026 at 12:04 PM
Educators and scientists can be painfully boring — myself included.

So people like Jon Stewart can make bank by creating more *enjoyable* ways for folks to *feel* informed.

Given our goals, it’s unsurprising that entertainers prioritize science about as much as scientists prioritize entertainment.
Man, this clip from the middle of Jon Stewart's most recent podcast really downgraded my estimation of him. After 20+ years commenting on politics 4 nights a week, he doesn't know the absolute basics of what economists believe, at all. www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZcz...
The Irrational Economy with Nobel Laureate Richard Thaler | The Weekly Show with Jon Stewart
YouTube video by The Weekly Show with Jon Stewart
www.youtube.com
February 6, 2026 at 5:21 PM
Best #CogSci talk I've attended in years.

How should researchers determine if a participant's decision is correct or rational?

Dr. Rumana clarified decades of ongoing debate about theory & methods in @sjdm-tweets.bsky.social @cogscisociety.bsky.social @socphilpsych.bsky.social @philsci.bsky.social
I'm giving a talk on how to settle disagreements about how participants should respond to tasks and why it's relevant to cognitive explanation, especially in judgement and decision-making psychology. register by tomorrow to listen in on Friday 4pm CET/ 10am ET/ 8am MT

philevents.org/event/show/1...
Philosophy of science of decision making - Aliya Rumana (Feb 6)
Dear All,&nbsp; &nbsp; You're cordially invited to the next installment of the&nbsp;Philosophy of Science of Decision Making&nbsp;seminar series.&nbsp; &nbsp; Speaker:&nbsp;Aliya Rumana (University o...
philevents.org
February 6, 2026 at 4:21 PM
As reviewed in "Strategic Reflectivism..." (doi.org/10.48550/arX...), another paper finds that asking an #AI model to reflect on a prior answer improved reflection test answers: doi.org/10.1016/j.ch...

But this iterative reflection benefit varied by #language and test question?
February 6, 2026 at 12:23 PM
How well can #AI infer the relationships between a pair of answers?

Are both plausible? (this AND that)
Is one more plausible? (this OR that)
Are both implausible? (NEITHER this NOR that)

LogicalCommonSenseQA benchmarks #LLMs on such #logic inference.

doi.org/10.48550/arX...
February 5, 2026 at 12:11 PM
How is #leadership judged for organizational sacrifice?

In preregistered experiments (N > 2k), sacrificing an employee's #wellbeing for the sake of the team/organization was deemed much less moral and warm, but not much less competent.

doi.org/10.1111/jasp...

#OrgPsych #Ethics
February 4, 2026 at 12:04 PM
Practice 👏 in 👏 exam 👏 conditions

If you’re not allowed to rely on textbooks, slides, notes, peers, #AI, #chatbots, etc. on an exam, then you haven’t finished studying for that exam until you perform well *without* such assistance.

www.oecd.org/en/publ...

#edu #cogSci #tech
February 3, 2026 at 12:02 PM
Good use of figures and tables in this review article from colleagues at @geisinger.bsky.social and beyond.
February 2, 2026 at 3:49 PM
If your objection to something is just “it's biased”, then you do not yet have an objection.

I mention #theBiasFallacy in "Strategic Reflectivism":
doi.org/10.48550/arX...

and explain it on my #blog: byrdnick.com/archive...

#logic #argumentation #debate #edu #criticalThinking
January 30, 2026 at 12:11 PM
For years people have yelled “NPH” when they see me — friends, students, total strangers.

I recently learned that the acronym refers not just to Neil Patrick Harris and his lookalikes, but also a treatable form of dementia often mistaken for Alzheimer’s.
NPH: A misunderstood form of dementia that can be reversed | Brain | UT Southwestern Medical Center
Some patients with Alzheimer’s may actually have NPH, a nuanced disease that causes fluid buildup in the brain. See how UT Southwestern recognizes and treats it.
utswmed.org
January 29, 2026 at 12:32 PM
Reposted by Nick Byrd, Ph.D.
Was curious whether I can vibecode a statcheck variant that also does effect size CI verifications.

Played around & have a proof of concept up on:
mgto.shinyapps.io/ESCIcheck/

Far from perfect, much to fix and improve, but I now see it's all doable & fairly easy.

Interested? Happy to collaborate.
mgto.shinyapps.io
January 29, 2026 at 2:41 AM
Why do people guess poorly in games?

This #econ paper suggests non-optimal guessing isn't always random.

Each correct answer on a reflection test predicted higher odds of partially (or boundedly) rational guesses and even higher odds of optimal guesses!

doi.org/10.1016/j.ec...
January 28, 2026 at 12:23 PM
Can low-code, custom #AI agents beat off-the-shelf #LLMs on expert knowledge tests?

This Evidence-Based #Nursing (EBN) agent included a reflection and evaluation step.

It outperformed ChatGPT-o1, DeepSeek-R1 and Kimi across 124 standardized test items:

doi.org/10.1016/j.ne...
January 27, 2026 at 12:32 PM
Do #psychedelics aid reasoning?

In over 5000 participants, psychedelic users scored better on some tests — but they were also younger, more educated men.

Correcting for #age, #gender, and #education nullified differences in reflective thinking.

doi.org/10.48550/arX...
January 26, 2026 at 12:15 PM
Kudos to James and @fbartos.bsky.social for trying to make sense of oddities in this meta- meta-analysis and its open science webpage.

I've found no other substantial analysis of this paper via @altmetric.com — just people copy-pasting its title and/or abstract to their feed (or reshares thereof).🫤
January 26, 2026 at 11:21 AM
How do #CogSci jobs in industry and academia compare? Andrew has helpful insight 👇
Should you go to academia or industry for research in AI or cognitive science? It's the most common question I get asked by PhD students, and I've written up some of my thoughts on the answer, as an epilogue to my research-focused series on these fields: infinitefaculty.substack.com/p/on-researc...
On research careers in academia and industry
The epilogue to a series on Cognitive Science and AI
infinitefaculty.substack.com
January 23, 2026 at 5:25 PM
The latest #PhilosophyOfScience of #DecisionMaking seminar is starting!

This week: Malvina Ongaro, who will present her paper, “Decision-making for the management of natural risks”

More about the series: sites.google.com/view/philsci...

#PhilSciDec #Philosophy #Psychology #DecisionScience #CogSci
PhilSciDec
ABOUT Philosophy of Science of Decision Making is an online research seminar run by Dr James Grayot of the Mind, Language, and Action Group (MLAG) of the University of Porto, Institute of Philosophy. ...
sites.google.com
January 23, 2026 at 1:08 PM
Can Socratic reflection improve #AI answers to medical questions?

Adding a critic to a #languageModel pipeline improved performance on two measures of medical question-answering.

The improvement didn't depend on the critic's model.

doi.org/10.48550/arX...

#tech #medicine #edu
January 23, 2026 at 11:58 AM
Reposted by Nick Byrd, Ph.D.
When surveys allow Americans to express their policy preferences on a continuum, most are moderate across a wide range of issues. Democrats & Republics show overlap on every issue, with modest average disagreement; positions across issues are constrained
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Reassessing Extremism, Polarization, and Constraint with Continuous Policy Questions - Political Behavior
Some argue that the American public is extreme and polarized along party lines. Paradoxically, others argue that members of the public lack meaningful policy preferences and exhibit low constraint acr...
link.springer.com
January 22, 2026 at 2:15 AM