Brendan Paddy
@bjpaddy.bsky.social
Looking to make the outdoors for everyone as director of Ramblers Scotland but these are personal views. Expect pics of walks, posts on politics/world news, risidual overseas aid and guest appearances by a small hairy murderer named Pixie.
Number one source of forecasting errors for experts as well as lay people? Mistaking what we want for what we should expect. Which is why pessimists are pretty consistently more accurate in their predictions.
Hi All, Its the annual column of ritual humiliation, where I dissect, with quotes, the biggest mistakes I made in the past year. There are some great ones where I was wrong. This year, to make the column more helpful, I have even included a lessons learned analysis. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Annual Review 2025: What I Got Wrong
Complete with quotes!
open.substack.com
December 26, 2025 at 11:52 AM
Number one source of forecasting errors for experts as well as lay people? Mistaking what we want for what we should expect. Which is why pessimists are pretty consistently more accurate in their predictions.
There are plenty of folk with more experience of mountain safety than me but a few thoughts:
1) good on these guys for recognising & talking about the fact they were in their own words "overconfident" & "under-prepared" - that was most of us at one point if we're honest
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
1) good on these guys for recognising & talking about the fact they were in their own words "overconfident" & "under-prepared" - that was most of us at one point if we're honest
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
'Overconfident' young men prompt multiple rescues from Yr Wyddfa
Llanberis Mountain Rescue Team say winter weather can turn a manageable day extremely dangerous.
www.bbc.co.uk
December 26, 2025 at 10:40 AM
There are plenty of folk with more experience of mountain safety than me but a few thoughts:
1) good on these guys for recognising & talking about the fact they were in their own words "overconfident" & "under-prepared" - that was most of us at one point if we're honest
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
1) good on these guys for recognising & talking about the fact they were in their own words "overconfident" & "under-prepared" - that was most of us at one point if we're honest
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
US judge blocks detention of British social media campaigner
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
US judge blocks detention of British social media campaigner
Imran Ahmed was among five people accused of seeking to
www.bbc.co.uk
December 26, 2025 at 6:00 AM
US judge blocks detention of British social media campaigner
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Reposted by Brendan Paddy
It's cold but rather lovely here at the moment. A respite from the very wet and windy first three weeks of December. Unusual to see no snow on the tops. A drone shot from yesterday morning. Loch Shieldaig, Upper Loch Torridon and the Torridon Hills. (Most, but not all of them).
December 26, 2025 at 5:18 AM
It's cold but rather lovely here at the moment. A respite from the very wet and windy first three weeks of December. Unusual to see no snow on the tops. A drone shot from yesterday morning. Loch Shieldaig, Upper Loch Torridon and the Torridon Hills. (Most, but not all of them).
Reposted by Brendan Paddy
Christmas morning - looking across to Beinn Alligin.
December 25, 2025 at 10:08 AM
Christmas morning - looking across to Beinn Alligin.
Reposted by Brendan Paddy
Whiteout on the River Coupall, Glen Coe. Hope ye all have a very merry Christmas folks, and a belter of a New Year! Thanks for all your your support and kind words over 2025, always very much appreciated 🙏Here's to adventures new in 2026, Slainte!!🥃 xxx www.damianshields.com
December 25, 2025 at 12:36 PM
Whiteout on the River Coupall, Glen Coe. Hope ye all have a very merry Christmas folks, and a belter of a New Year! Thanks for all your your support and kind words over 2025, always very much appreciated 🙏Here's to adventures new in 2026, Slainte!!🥃 xxx www.damianshields.com
Reposted by Brendan Paddy
It stayed below freezing today until 13:45....and then got up to 0.5C before falling back below freezing again just a short while ago. If you can't have a white Christmas, a whitish Christmas is the next best thing 😉
December 25, 2025 at 5:06 PM
It stayed below freezing today until 13:45....and then got up to 0.5C before falling back below freezing again just a short while ago. If you can't have a white Christmas, a whitish Christmas is the next best thing 😉
Reposted by Brendan Paddy
A phone shot until I get home and edit the raw files. Absolutely stunning view down the river. And it’s not sunset, that’s midday!
December 25, 2025 at 5:44 PM
A phone shot until I get home and edit the raw files. Absolutely stunning view down the river. And it’s not sunset, that’s midday!
Reposted by Brendan Paddy
Nollaig Chridheil 💫 Merry Christmas 💫
Wishing everyone a joyous festive season from the Cairngorms National Park❄️
As another year draws to a close, we’re thankful to the people, communities and partners that make this place so special 💜
📸 SCOTLAND: The Big Picture
Wishing everyone a joyous festive season from the Cairngorms National Park❄️
As another year draws to a close, we’re thankful to the people, communities and partners that make this place so special 💜
📸 SCOTLAND: The Big Picture
December 25, 2025 at 5:24 PM
Nollaig Chridheil 💫 Merry Christmas 💫
Wishing everyone a joyous festive season from the Cairngorms National Park❄️
As another year draws to a close, we’re thankful to the people, communities and partners that make this place so special 💜
📸 SCOTLAND: The Big Picture
Wishing everyone a joyous festive season from the Cairngorms National Park❄️
As another year draws to a close, we’re thankful to the people, communities and partners that make this place so special 💜
📸 SCOTLAND: The Big Picture
Reposted by Brendan Paddy
Merry Christmas!🎄
After all the TV, mince pies & festive feasting, we hope you find time for energising walks during the hols.
Here are some Scottish favourites, from an easy urban route to a weather & skills-dependent Munro: https://www.ramblers.org.uk/go-walking-hub/britains-best-walks-scotland
After all the TV, mince pies & festive feasting, we hope you find time for energising walks during the hols.
Here are some Scottish favourites, from an easy urban route to a weather & skills-dependent Munro: https://www.ramblers.org.uk/go-walking-hub/britains-best-walks-scotland
December 25, 2025 at 5:18 PM
Merry Christmas!🎄
After all the TV, mince pies & festive feasting, we hope you find time for energising walks during the hols.
Here are some Scottish favourites, from an easy urban route to a weather & skills-dependent Munro: https://www.ramblers.org.uk/go-walking-hub/britains-best-walks-scotland
After all the TV, mince pies & festive feasting, we hope you find time for energising walks during the hols.
Here are some Scottish favourites, from an easy urban route to a weather & skills-dependent Munro: https://www.ramblers.org.uk/go-walking-hub/britains-best-walks-scotland
Reposted by Brendan Paddy
Some more highlights from my 11.8mile walk.
(Alt text: hawthorn berries in foreground of river;red kite in flight; Christmas sunset behind trees;gloaming light over river)
(Alt text: hawthorn berries in foreground of river;red kite in flight; Christmas sunset behind trees;gloaming light over river)
December 25, 2025 at 9:55 PM
Some more highlights from my 11.8mile walk.
(Alt text: hawthorn berries in foreground of river;red kite in flight; Christmas sunset behind trees;gloaming light over river)
(Alt text: hawthorn berries in foreground of river;red kite in flight; Christmas sunset behind trees;gloaming light over river)
Reposted by Brendan Paddy
I don't know who needs to know this, but Jesus is not everyone's savior in the United States.
December 25, 2025 at 5:30 PM
I don't know who needs to know this, but Jesus is not everyone's savior in the United States.
Reposted by Brendan Paddy
The blatant selling of pardons is perhaps the clearest instance of criminal conduct authorized by SCOTUS. Pardons are a quintessential "official act." So, even when Trump takes a bribe to issue one, he is presumably above the criminal law.
The president’s own chief of staff was reportedly stunned by his pardon of a former Honduran president.
Trump’s Ice Maiden Blindsided by President’s Controversial Pardon
The president’s own chief of staff was reportedly stunned by his pardon of a former Honduran president.
trib.al
December 25, 2025 at 4:23 PM
The blatant selling of pardons is perhaps the clearest instance of criminal conduct authorized by SCOTUS. Pardons are a quintessential "official act." So, even when Trump takes a bribe to issue one, he is presumably above the criminal law.
Craiglockhart sunset
December 25, 2025 at 3:44 PM
Craiglockhart sunset
First time for years I've ill-treated a duck at Christmas - everyone seemed pretty happy with the results, except the duck, obviously
December 25, 2025 at 2:12 PM
First time for years I've ill-treated a duck at Christmas - everyone seemed pretty happy with the results, except the duck, obviously
DNA kits for the whole family at Christmas? What could possibly go wrong
www.dailyrecord.co.uk/lifestyle/i-...
www.dailyrecord.co.uk/lifestyle/i-...
'I bought my family DNA kits for Christmas and everyone was left in tears'
A woman has issued a stark warning to anyone considering buying a DNA kit as a present this Christmas after it caused a huge situation among her family members...
www.dailyrecord.co.uk
December 25, 2025 at 8:25 AM
DNA kits for the whole family at Christmas? What could possibly go wrong
www.dailyrecord.co.uk/lifestyle/i-...
www.dailyrecord.co.uk/lifestyle/i-...
Reposted by Brendan Paddy
Lots of chat about Labour being on course to lose in Wales for the first time in over a century.
But here's something: this constituency vote share (16.6%) would be their worst vote share in a national election in Scotland since *1910*.
But here's something: this constituency vote share (16.6%) would be their worst vote share in a national election in Scotland since *1910*.
Final Scottish Parliament poll tracker of the year, before the Christmas holidays start in earnest. SNP projected one short of a majority.
Seats (+/- 2021):
SNP: 64 (-)
Lab: 18 (-4)
Ref: 18(+18)
Grn: 12 (+4)
Con: 9 (-22)
LD: 8 (+4)
Alba: 0 (-)
20 marginals: 16 SNP, 3 Labour, 1 Conservative.
1/3
Seats (+/- 2021):
SNP: 64 (-)
Lab: 18 (-4)
Ref: 18(+18)
Grn: 12 (+4)
Con: 9 (-22)
LD: 8 (+4)
Alba: 0 (-)
20 marginals: 16 SNP, 3 Labour, 1 Conservative.
1/3
December 24, 2025 at 1:34 PM
Lots of chat about Labour being on course to lose in Wales for the first time in over a century.
But here's something: this constituency vote share (16.6%) would be their worst vote share in a national election in Scotland since *1910*.
But here's something: this constituency vote share (16.6%) would be their worst vote share in a national election in Scotland since *1910*.
Just the Pope deciding he wants to spend Christmas fucking up Christian Nationalists & other whited sepulchres
Pope Leo said in a Christmas Eve sermon that the story of Jesus being born in a stable because there was no room at an inn should remind Christians that refusing to help the poor and strangers today is tantamount to rejecting God himself. For @reuters.com
Pope Leo, on Christmas Eve, says denying help to poor is rejecting God
Pope Leo said in a Christmas Eve sermon on Wednesday that the story of Jesus being born in a stable because there was no room at an inn should remind Christians that refusing to help the poor and stra...
www.reuters.com
December 25, 2025 at 7:18 AM
Just the Pope deciding he wants to spend Christmas fucking up Christian Nationalists & other whited sepulchres
Reposted by Brendan Paddy
Don't be that person who gifts a Hippopotamus for Christmas
Holiday responsibly 😉
Holiday responsibly 😉
December 24, 2025 at 9:02 PM
Don't be that person who gifts a Hippopotamus for Christmas
Holiday responsibly 😉
Holiday responsibly 😉
Reposted by Brendan Paddy
December 23, 2025 at 10:57 AM
Misleading ScotRail ads banned
www.theguardian.com/money/2025/d...
www.theguardian.com/money/2025/d...
Train firms warned over ‘best price’ claims after watchdog bans ads
Advertising regulator said operators and a ticket seller could not prove bookings were cheapest
www.theguardian.com
December 24, 2025 at 7:26 PM
Misleading ScotRail ads banned
www.theguardian.com/money/2025/d...
www.theguardian.com/money/2025/d...
Bus journey times being 'killed by congestion' in cities
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Bus journey times being 'killed by congestion' in cities
The industry warns that traffic jams are slowing average bus speeds and are calling for more priority measures for buses.
www.bbc.co.uk
December 24, 2025 at 6:39 PM
Bus journey times being 'killed by congestion' in cities
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Reposted by Brendan Paddy
‘There’s no going back’: Iran’s women on why they won’t stop flouting dress code laws
‘There’s no going back’: Iran’s women on why they won’t stop flouting dress code laws
Despite fresh attempts to make women cover up, many believe the regime wouldn’t risk mass arrests for fear of sparking a wave of popular unrest last seen after the killing of Mahsa Amini
www.theguardian.com
December 24, 2025 at 4:16 PM
‘There’s no going back’: Iran’s women on why they won’t stop flouting dress code laws
If you like seabirds, living with the people you work with & weather that rolls in fresh off the Atlantic @scotwildlife.bsky.social are looking for a ranger on Handa
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
New ranger wanted for isolated uninhabited island of Handa
The job comes with a few challenges - including weekly boat trips to mainland for washing and shopping.
www.bbc.co.uk
December 24, 2025 at 3:26 PM
If you like seabirds, living with the people you work with & weather that rolls in fresh off the Atlantic @scotwildlife.bsky.social are looking for a ranger on Handa
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Reposted by Brendan Paddy
I’ll just note that the US didn’t do this to China, which outright bans US social media websites
US bars former EU commissioner Breton and others over tech rules ft.trib.al/TgoG45B
US bars former EU commissioner Breton and others over tech rules
France hits out at visa sanctions as Washington targets what it calls the ‘global censorship-industrial complex’
ft.trib.al
December 24, 2025 at 11:12 AM
I’ll just note that the US didn’t do this to China, which outright bans US social media websites