Ben Ramanauskas
@benramanauskas.bsky.social
Economist. Dreamweaver. Coconut Water Enjoyer. Very bad at BlueSky.
Lapsed academic (Oxford: Blavatnik School of Government & Said Business School). Erstwhile adviser to the UK government (Trade, HMT, DHSC).
Blog: https://opportunitylost.substack.com/
Lapsed academic (Oxford: Blavatnik School of Government & Said Business School). Erstwhile adviser to the UK government (Trade, HMT, DHSC).
Blog: https://opportunitylost.substack.com/
New blog post!
The MPC was wrong to not cut interest rates on Thursday. The Budget is going to cause further damage to the labour market and demand will be far weaker than forecast by the Bank of England.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/why-the-ba...
The MPC was wrong to not cut interest rates on Thursday. The Budget is going to cause further damage to the labour market and demand will be far weaker than forecast by the Bank of England.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/why-the-ba...
Why the Bank of England is Wrong
Again...
opportunitylost.substack.com
November 8, 2025 at 1:29 PM
New blog post!
The MPC was wrong to not cut interest rates on Thursday. The Budget is going to cause further damage to the labour market and demand will be far weaker than forecast by the Bank of England.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/why-the-ba...
The MPC was wrong to not cut interest rates on Thursday. The Budget is going to cause further damage to the labour market and demand will be far weaker than forecast by the Bank of England.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/why-the-ba...
I keep forgetting to use BlueSky but I'm on the @cityam.bsky.social Shadow MPC. I voted for a 25 basis points cut. In the article I explain why I hope the Bank will also vote for a cut.
www.cityam.com/cut-interest...
www.cityam.com/cut-interest...
Cut interest rates by 25 basis points, Shadow MPC says
Slim majority of economists on City AM’s Shadow MPC said fresh inflation data allowed the Bank of England to proceed with interest rate cuts.
www.cityam.com
November 5, 2025 at 7:17 PM
I keep forgetting to use BlueSky but I'm on the @cityam.bsky.social Shadow MPC. I voted for a 25 basis points cut. In the article I explain why I hope the Bank will also vote for a cut.
www.cityam.com/cut-interest...
www.cityam.com/cut-interest...
Reposted by Ben Ramanauskas
Finally got around to reading the Policy Exchange how to cut public spending report.
A genuinely excellent contribution to the debate.
Rather starkly illustrates how hard meaningful cuts to public spending are by using actual numbers rather than weasel words.
policyexchange.org.uk/publication/...
A genuinely excellent contribution to the debate.
Rather starkly illustrates how hard meaningful cuts to public spending are by using actual numbers rather than weasel words.
policyexchange.org.uk/publication/...
Beyond Our Means - Policy Exchange
Download Publication Online Reader The UK faces a twin-pronged fiscal crisis. At about 100% of GDP, public debt is inordinately high and is set to rise a good deal further. Debt interest alone account...
policyexchange.org.uk
November 3, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Finally got around to reading the Policy Exchange how to cut public spending report.
A genuinely excellent contribution to the debate.
Rather starkly illustrates how hard meaningful cuts to public spending are by using actual numbers rather than weasel words.
policyexchange.org.uk/publication/...
A genuinely excellent contribution to the debate.
Rather starkly illustrates how hard meaningful cuts to public spending are by using actual numbers rather than weasel words.
policyexchange.org.uk/publication/...
Reposted by Ben Ramanauskas
I will write more about this Policy Exchange report when I’m back from holiday, but broadly speaking I think it’s the most serious thinking from the British right on how you’d cut spending and the test for Con and Reform is “if you don’t like this, shut up about tax rises”.
Beyond Our Means - Policy Exchange
Download Publication Online Reader The UK faces a twin-pronged fiscal crisis. At about 100% of GDP, public debt is inordinately high and is set to rise a good deal further. Debt interest alone account...
policyexchange.org.uk
November 3, 2025 at 10:42 AM
I will write more about this Policy Exchange report when I’m back from holiday, but broadly speaking I think it’s the most serious thinking from the British right on how you’d cut spending and the test for Con and Reform is “if you don’t like this, shut up about tax rises”.
Reposted by Ben Ramanauskas
I have pretty solid admiration for this PX report by @igmansfield.bsky.social @benramanauskas.bsky.social et al, not because I love everything in it, but its honest about how if you want to cut spending, you must do hard unpopular things.
policyexchange.org.uk/publication/...
policyexchange.org.uk/publication/...
Beyond Our Means - Policy Exchange
Download Publication Online Reader The UK faces a twin-pronged fiscal crisis. At about 100% of GDP, public debt is inordinately high and is set to rise a good deal further. Debt interest alone account...
policyexchange.org.uk
November 3, 2025 at 11:26 AM
I have pretty solid admiration for this PX report by @igmansfield.bsky.social @benramanauskas.bsky.social et al, not because I love everything in it, but its honest about how if you want to cut spending, you must do hard unpopular things.
policyexchange.org.uk/publication/...
policyexchange.org.uk/publication/...
New blog post!
Declining cheese exports to 🇯🇵 teaches us 5 things: FX matters; agri tariffs are too high; non-tariff barriers are a real pain; 🇬🇧 needs to get better at export promotion; & trade takes place between firms & households, not governments.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/brie-trade...
Declining cheese exports to 🇯🇵 teaches us 5 things: FX matters; agri tariffs are too high; non-tariff barriers are a real pain; 🇬🇧 needs to get better at export promotion; & trade takes place between firms & households, not governments.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/brie-trade...
Brie Trade Agreement
What declining cheese exports to Japan can teach us about international trade
opportunitylost.substack.com
October 25, 2025 at 1:42 PM
New blog post!
Declining cheese exports to 🇯🇵 teaches us 5 things: FX matters; agri tariffs are too high; non-tariff barriers are a real pain; 🇬🇧 needs to get better at export promotion; & trade takes place between firms & households, not governments.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/brie-trade...
Declining cheese exports to 🇯🇵 teaches us 5 things: FX matters; agri tariffs are too high; non-tariff barriers are a real pain; 🇬🇧 needs to get better at export promotion; & trade takes place between firms & households, not governments.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/brie-trade...
New blog post!
It’s on why Rachel Reeves would be wrong to scrap the custom duty exemption for low value imports. It would: exacerbate the cost of living crisis; hammer small businesses; and be an attack on free trade.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/the-uk-sho...
It’s on why Rachel Reeves would be wrong to scrap the custom duty exemption for low value imports. It would: exacerbate the cost of living crisis; hammer small businesses; and be an attack on free trade.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/the-uk-sho...
The UK Should Not Scrap the De Minimis Exemption
5 reasons why
opportunitylost.substack.com
October 18, 2025 at 5:16 PM
New blog post!
It’s on why Rachel Reeves would be wrong to scrap the custom duty exemption for low value imports. It would: exacerbate the cost of living crisis; hammer small businesses; and be an attack on free trade.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/the-uk-sho...
It’s on why Rachel Reeves would be wrong to scrap the custom duty exemption for low value imports. It would: exacerbate the cost of living crisis; hammer small businesses; and be an attack on free trade.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/the-uk-sho...
Again, keep forgetting to use Bluesky but here is a new blog post.
It's on why the government should unfreeze Fuel Duty before phasing it out and replacing it with road pricing.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/when-is-a-...
It's on why the government should unfreeze Fuel Duty before phasing it out and replacing it with road pricing.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/when-is-a-...
When is a Rabbit Actually a Hedgehog?
What to do about Fuel Duty?
opportunitylost.substack.com
October 4, 2025 at 8:55 PM
Again, keep forgetting to use Bluesky but here is a new blog post.
It's on why the government should unfreeze Fuel Duty before phasing it out and replacing it with road pricing.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/when-is-a-...
It's on why the government should unfreeze Fuel Duty before phasing it out and replacing it with road pricing.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/when-is-a-...
I keep forgetting to use Bluesky but I've written a new blog post.
The two-child benefit cap is cruel and has failed on its own misguided terms. It should be abolished. This should be funded by scrapping the State Pension Triple Lock.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/why-we-sho...
The two-child benefit cap is cruel and has failed on its own misguided terms. It should be abolished. This should be funded by scrapping the State Pension Triple Lock.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/why-we-sho...
Why We Should Scrap the Two-Child Benefit Cap
And how we should fund it
opportunitylost.substack.com
September 28, 2025 at 8:54 AM
I keep forgetting to use Bluesky but I've written a new blog post.
The two-child benefit cap is cruel and has failed on its own misguided terms. It should be abolished. This should be funded by scrapping the State Pension Triple Lock.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/why-we-sho...
The two-child benefit cap is cruel and has failed on its own misguided terms. It should be abolished. This should be funded by scrapping the State Pension Triple Lock.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/why-we-sho...
Keep forgetting to use Bluesky.
Anyway, here are my thoughts on the government's Trade Strategy.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/some-thoug...
Anyway, here are my thoughts on the government's Trade Strategy.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/some-thoug...
Some Thoughts on the Government's Trade Strategy
Not to be confused with its Industrial Strategy or its SME Strategy
opportunitylost.substack.com
June 28, 2025 at 1:32 PM
Keep forgetting to use Bluesky.
Anyway, here are my thoughts on the government's Trade Strategy.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/some-thoug...
Anyway, here are my thoughts on the government's Trade Strategy.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/some-thoug...
New blog post!
It's on why the government is wrong to clamp down on cheap imports. Instead it should move towards unilateral free trade and (probably) abolish the Trade Remedies Authority.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/time-to-ab...
It's on why the government is wrong to clamp down on cheap imports. Instead it should move towards unilateral free trade and (probably) abolish the Trade Remedies Authority.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/time-to-ab...
Time to Abolish the Trade Remedies Authority?
Burn After Reading
opportunitylost.substack.com
April 27, 2025 at 1:19 PM
New blog post!
It's on why the government is wrong to clamp down on cheap imports. Instead it should move towards unilateral free trade and (probably) abolish the Trade Remedies Authority.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/time-to-ab...
It's on why the government is wrong to clamp down on cheap imports. Instead it should move towards unilateral free trade and (probably) abolish the Trade Remedies Authority.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/time-to-ab...
New blog post!
It's on why I've changed my mind on British Steel and why I now think that (short term) nationalisation is the least bad option.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/why-ive-ch...
It's on why I've changed my mind on British Steel and why I now think that (short term) nationalisation is the least bad option.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/why-ive-ch...
Why I've Changed My Mind on British Steel
Or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Support Some State Intervention
opportunitylost.substack.com
April 13, 2025 at 12:20 PM
New blog post!
It's on why I've changed my mind on British Steel and why I now think that (short term) nationalisation is the least bad option.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/why-ive-ch...
It's on why I've changed my mind on British Steel and why I now think that (short term) nationalisation is the least bad option.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/why-ive-ch...
New blog post!
It's on Trump's Nixon moment and why the tariff war is actually a currency war.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/time-for-a...
It's on Trump's Nixon moment and why the tariff war is actually a currency war.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/time-for-a...
Time for a Bit of Currency Manipulation?
The Day of the Triffin
opportunitylost.substack.com
April 12, 2025 at 1:57 PM
New blog post!
It's on Trump's Nixon moment and why the tariff war is actually a currency war.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/time-for-a...
It's on Trump's Nixon moment and why the tariff war is actually a currency war.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/time-for-a...
Reposted by Ben Ramanauskas
Is the #UK government heading in the right direction on #housing?
To solve the housing crisis, we need to make better use of existing urban housing, build more in cities and build on the green belt to reach #NetZero @benramanauskas.bsky.social @lsepoliticsblog.bsky.social
To solve the housing crisis, we need to make better use of existing urban housing, build more in cities and build on the green belt to reach #NetZero @benramanauskas.bsky.social @lsepoliticsblog.bsky.social
Labour’s housing plans are not that flawed - British Politics and Policy at LSE
Solving the housing crisis means making better use of existing housing, but Labour's plans to build on the green belt must also be part of the solution.
blogs.lse.ac.uk
March 15, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Is the #UK government heading in the right direction on #housing?
To solve the housing crisis, we need to make better use of existing urban housing, build more in cities and build on the green belt to reach #NetZero @benramanauskas.bsky.social @lsepoliticsblog.bsky.social
To solve the housing crisis, we need to make better use of existing urban housing, build more in cities and build on the green belt to reach #NetZero @benramanauskas.bsky.social @lsepoliticsblog.bsky.social
Reposted by Ben Ramanauskas
A typically anti-UK diatribe from the EU-ultra equivalent of the Brexit ultras, both of them being agreed that they would like geography not to exist. @chrisgrey.bsky.social article is worth reading on the reset.
The latest @chrisgrey.bsky.social piece is about the reaction Trump, in particular the @bestforbritain.bsky.social paper on Europe recognising UK standards as "equivalent".
Advise strongly to read it, as it's quite subtle.
Quick🧵reaction
chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2025/02/how-...
Advise strongly to read it, as it's quite subtle.
Quick🧵reaction
chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2025/02/how-...
February 23, 2025 at 10:30 AM
A typically anti-UK diatribe from the EU-ultra equivalent of the Brexit ultras, both of them being agreed that they would like geography not to exist. @chrisgrey.bsky.social article is worth reading on the reset.
This week I wrote for @unherd.com on why the UK shouldn't retaliate against Trump's tariffs. Instead if the government wants to support the steel industry then it needs to look at ways of lowering energy costs.
unherd.com/newsroom/uk-...
unherd.com/newsroom/uk-...
UK steel wouldn't survive a Trump trade war
The UK Government will not be responding to Donald Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminium imports with its own levies — at least for the time being. Though the US President’s inclusion of Britain in h...
unherd.com
February 16, 2025 at 12:47 PM
This week I wrote for @unherd.com on why the UK shouldn't retaliate against Trump's tariffs. Instead if the government wants to support the steel industry then it needs to look at ways of lowering energy costs.
unherd.com/newsroom/uk-...
unherd.com/newsroom/uk-...
Reposted by Ben Ramanauskas
Europe doesn't need any more wake-up calls.
It's awake. It's just very comfortable in its warm bed and procrastinating on getting up in the hopes something turns up to magically take care of all the chores it knows it should be getting on with.
It's awake. It's just very comfortable in its warm bed and procrastinating on getting up in the hopes something turns up to magically take care of all the chores it knows it should be getting on with.
February 16, 2025 at 12:12 PM
Europe doesn't need any more wake-up calls.
It's awake. It's just very comfortable in its warm bed and procrastinating on getting up in the hopes something turns up to magically take care of all the chores it knows it should be getting on with.
It's awake. It's just very comfortable in its warm bed and procrastinating on getting up in the hopes something turns up to magically take care of all the chores it knows it should be getting on with.
Reposted by Ben Ramanauskas
If today ends with tariffs - purportedly needed because of drug smuggling and illegal immigration - placed on Canada but not Mexico then I will be very confused.
February 3, 2025 at 4:52 PM
If today ends with tariffs - purportedly needed because of drug smuggling and illegal immigration - placed on Canada but not Mexico then I will be very confused.
Reposted by Ben Ramanauskas
Britain has seen a significant divergence between its goods and services trade since Brexit.
Here's 4 things you need to know 👇
Read the full analysis: https://buff.ly/3VjVEX3
Here's 4 things you need to know 👇
Read the full analysis: https://buff.ly/3VjVEX3
February 3, 2025 at 5:27 PM
Britain has seen a significant divergence between its goods and services trade since Brexit.
Here's 4 things you need to know 👇
Read the full analysis: https://buff.ly/3VjVEX3
Here's 4 things you need to know 👇
Read the full analysis: https://buff.ly/3VjVEX3
Reposted by Ben Ramanauskas
JUST PUBLISHED: Trump's announced tariffs—25% on Mexico & Canada (besides Canadian energy, at 10%) + a 10% increase in tariffs on China—would be the largest tax increase in at least a generation.
It would cost the median US household more than $1,200 a year. #PIIECharts
It would cost the median US household more than $1,200 a year. #PIIECharts
February 3, 2025 at 5:56 PM
JUST PUBLISHED: Trump's announced tariffs—25% on Mexico & Canada (besides Canadian energy, at 10%) + a 10% increase in tariffs on China—would be the largest tax increase in at least a generation.
It would cost the median US household more than $1,200 a year. #PIIECharts
It would cost the median US household more than $1,200 a year. #PIIECharts
Reposted by Ben Ramanauskas
New @nberpubs: "Divergent Paths: Differential Impacts of Minimum Wage Increases on Individuals with Disabilities" https://buff.ly/4hlQtP9
"large minimum wage increases significantly reduce employment and labor force participation for individuals of all working ages with severe di…
"large minimum wage increases significantly reduce employment and labor force participation for individuals of all working ages with severe di…
February 3, 2025 at 12:49 PM
New @nberpubs: "Divergent Paths: Differential Impacts of Minimum Wage Increases on Individuals with Disabilities" https://buff.ly/4hlQtP9
"large minimum wage increases significantly reduce employment and labor force participation for individuals of all working ages with severe di…
"large minimum wage increases significantly reduce employment and labor force participation for individuals of all working ages with severe di…
'Happy' memories of working on the UKGT and being lobbied by Big Margarine
Today's edition of MFN is about what a country might decide to do when Trump decides to tariff you.
mostfavourednation.substack.com/p/the-art-of...
mostfavourednation.substack.com/p/the-art-of...
February 3, 2025 at 12:36 PM
'Happy' memories of working on the UKGT and being lobbied by Big Margarine
Would mean that the UK is subsidising the US (in goods)
he genuinely just thinks of trade deficits as 1 to 1 subsidies lol. Would be so stupid it’s funny—if he wasn’t the one writing tariff policy
February 3, 2025 at 12:31 PM
Would mean that the UK is subsidising the US (in goods)
Sad to see so many conservatives and former free traders support Trump's tariffs just because they might not be levied on us. As I wrote back in November, it's not in the UK's interests to support policies which make our trading patners poorer.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/trump-and-...
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/trump-and-...
Trump and Trade Policy
By this time tomorrow we will hopefully know the outcome of the US Presidential Election.
opportunitylost.substack.com
February 3, 2025 at 9:26 AM
Sad to see so many conservatives and former free traders support Trump's tariffs just because they might not be levied on us. As I wrote back in November, it's not in the UK's interests to support policies which make our trading patners poorer.
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/trump-and-...
opportunitylost.substack.com/p/trump-and-...
Never a good sign when I get asked by a producer to be interviewed on the radio.
Not least of all because it means they've gone through their list and @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social, @davidheniguk.bsky.social, @explaintrade.com, et al are clearly busy!
Not least of all because it means they've gone through their list and @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social, @davidheniguk.bsky.social, @explaintrade.com, et al are clearly busy!
February 1, 2025 at 11:38 PM
Never a good sign when I get asked by a producer to be interviewed on the radio.
Not least of all because it means they've gone through their list and @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social, @davidheniguk.bsky.social, @explaintrade.com, et al are clearly busy!
Not least of all because it means they've gone through their list and @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social, @davidheniguk.bsky.social, @explaintrade.com, et al are clearly busy!