Ben Cahill
@bencahill.bsky.social
Director, Energy Markets and Policy, CEESA, UT Austin. Energy, geopolitics, Middle East, transitions, methane, LNG, NOCs, running, cocktails.
New op-ed in Barron's on US LNG with @arvindpawan1.bsky.social. We cover some surprising findings in the DOE LNG study. Cutting emissions from new and existing projects, and developing a market for lower-emissions gas, can help make a credible climate case for US LNG. www.barrons.com/articles/lng...
The Surprising Climate Story Behind Booming U.S. LNG Exports
www.barrons.com
January 27, 2025 at 7:53 PM
New op-ed in Barron's on US LNG with @arvindpawan1.bsky.social. We cover some surprising findings in the DOE LNG study. Cutting emissions from new and existing projects, and developing a market for lower-emissions gas, can help make a credible climate case for US LNG. www.barrons.com/articles/lng...
📢New paper: Will Trump Mend or End Federal Methane Regulations? This white paper from UT Austin's CEESA includes detailed scenarios & pathways. We outline the context as well, including investor pressure, corporate commitments, EU regulations, and buyer demands. www.ceesa.utexas.edu/white-papers
January 24, 2025 at 8:47 PM
📢New paper: Will Trump Mend or End Federal Methane Regulations? This white paper from UT Austin's CEESA includes detailed scenarios & pathways. We outline the context as well, including investor pressure, corporate commitments, EU regulations, and buyer demands. www.ceesa.utexas.edu/white-papers
Reposted by Ben Cahill
trump has now paused all permitting for renewables projects on federal lands for sixty days
cc @heatmap.news
heatmap.news/sparks/renew...
cc @heatmap.news
heatmap.news/sparks/renew...
Trump Pauses Permitting for All Renewables on Federal Lands
A newly released memo from the Department of the Interior freezes the pipeline for 60 days.
heatmap.news
January 24, 2025 at 7:43 PM
trump has now paused all permitting for renewables projects on federal lands for sixty days
cc @heatmap.news
heatmap.news/sparks/renew...
cc @heatmap.news
heatmap.news/sparks/renew...
Funny, maybe a little overstated, but I tend to agree. The discipline of writing (and ruthless editing and revision) is the best way to truly understand an issue and organize your thoughts. After that, PowerPoints and podcasts and talks are easy.
A bold take on podcasting from my (temporary) replacement Martin Wolf…
January 15, 2025 at 2:14 PM
Funny, maybe a little overstated, but I tend to agree. The discipline of writing (and ruthless editing and revision) is the best way to truly understand an issue and organize your thoughts. After that, PowerPoints and podcasts and talks are easy.
Excellent article from @roryjohnston.bsky.social and Joe Calnan on the world's most important bilateral energy relationship. Tariffs may not harm US consumers *if* producers of Canadian heavy bear all the burden and WCS differentials blow out. But that's a big gamble. www.cgai.ca/the_co_evolu...
The Co-Evolution of the Canada-U.S. Oil Industry and Possible Implications of Donald Trump’s Re-election
The United States and Canada are the two fastest growing sources of non-OPEC oil production today and, for more than a decade, have made up the bulk of non-OPEC supply growth. While supply from the re...
www.cgai.ca
January 14, 2025 at 4:03 PM
Excellent article from @roryjohnston.bsky.social and Joe Calnan on the world's most important bilateral energy relationship. Tariffs may not harm US consumers *if* producers of Canadian heavy bear all the burden and WCS differentials blow out. But that's a big gamble. www.cgai.ca/the_co_evolu...
Big expansion of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil exports, targeting producers, tanker owners, traders, OFS companies, and insurers. Will greatly increase the risk of doing business w/these entities. Bullish signal; Brent crude near $80/b today. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Why Biden’s Farewell Sanctions on Russian Oil Are a Big Deal
The US on Friday announced the most sweeping and aggressive sanctions yet on Russia’s oil trade, just ten days before Joe Biden leaves the White House to be replaced by Donald Trump as president.
www.bloomberg.com
January 10, 2025 at 7:47 PM
Big expansion of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil exports, targeting producers, tanker owners, traders, OFS companies, and insurers. Will greatly increase the risk of doing business w/these entities. Bullish signal; Brent crude near $80/b today. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted by Ben Cahill
Week 1 2025 @bruegel.bsky.social European gas imports
-RU imports drop as Ukrainian transit ends (Turkstream flows at record seasonal levels)
-weekly LNG imports slightly increased
-LNG regasification utilisation: HR 93%, PL 88%
-EU's gas storage is 69% full, UA's 15%
www.bruegel.org/dataset/euro...
-RU imports drop as Ukrainian transit ends (Turkstream flows at record seasonal levels)
-weekly LNG imports slightly increased
-LNG regasification utilisation: HR 93%, PL 88%
-EU's gas storage is 69% full, UA's 15%
www.bruegel.org/dataset/euro...
January 10, 2025 at 2:04 PM
Week 1 2025 @bruegel.bsky.social European gas imports
-RU imports drop as Ukrainian transit ends (Turkstream flows at record seasonal levels)
-weekly LNG imports slightly increased
-LNG regasification utilisation: HR 93%, PL 88%
-EU's gas storage is 69% full, UA's 15%
www.bruegel.org/dataset/euro...
-RU imports drop as Ukrainian transit ends (Turkstream flows at record seasonal levels)
-weekly LNG imports slightly increased
-LNG regasification utilisation: HR 93%, PL 88%
-EU's gas storage is 69% full, UA's 15%
www.bruegel.org/dataset/euro...
ICYMI: short essays from 9 CSIS colleagues & affiliates on different elements of the DOE US #LNG study. I wrote about long-term global LNG demand, arguing that commercial risks are unavoidable, but it's best to let the market sort out which facilities are built. www.csis.org/analysis/exp...
Experts React: DOE LNG Study Highlights and Implications
The Department of Energy released its long-awaited study on U.S. liquified natural gas exports, offering a comprehensive update on economic and environmental analysis. Experts discuss key highlights a...
www.csis.org
December 30, 2024 at 3:56 PM
ICYMI: short essays from 9 CSIS colleagues & affiliates on different elements of the DOE US #LNG study. I wrote about long-term global LNG demand, arguing that commercial risks are unavoidable, but it's best to let the market sort out which facilities are built. www.csis.org/analysis/exp...
Keep this in mind when thinking about all of the energy and climate priorities (along with every other wish list) that people aim to push into a reconciliation bill next year. www.nytimes.com/live/2024/12...
Transition Live Updates: To Avert Shutdown, Republicans Consider Rejecting Trump’s Priority
www.nytimes.com
December 20, 2024 at 7:40 PM
Keep this in mind when thinking about all of the energy and climate priorities (along with every other wish list) that people aim to push into a reconciliation bill next year. www.nytimes.com/live/2024/12...
How can the EU buy more US LNG? In the short term, EU companies could outbid other buyers for destination-flexible volumes (this happened in 2022-23 but only due to acute market pressure). Otherwise flows depend on lifting the "pause" which is already part of Trump's plan. www.ft.com/content/9e48...
Donald Trump tells EU to buy US oil and gas or face tariffs
US president-elect warns bloc that member states will face tariffs unless they make big purchases
www.ft.com
December 20, 2024 at 2:52 PM
How can the EU buy more US LNG? In the short term, EU companies could outbid other buyers for destination-flexible volumes (this happened in 2022-23 but only due to acute market pressure). Otherwise flows depend on lifting the "pause" which is already part of Trump's plan. www.ft.com/content/9e48...
Reposted by Ben Cahill
Key figure in the US DoE #LNG study: Coal-to-gas transition is a small part of how US LNG will be used globally, and much of it simply adds new gas generation. Impact on global emissions with & without unconstrained US LNG is ~0 (but slightly positive).
www.energy.gov/sites/defaul...
www.energy.gov/sites/defaul...
December 17, 2024 at 10:16 PM
Key figure in the US DoE #LNG study: Coal-to-gas transition is a small part of how US LNG will be used globally, and much of it simply adds new gas generation. Impact on global emissions with & without unconstrained US LNG is ~0 (but slightly positive).
www.energy.gov/sites/defaul...
www.energy.gov/sites/defaul...
Imminent DOE LNG study: some surprising early findings in Granholm letter. 1. US #LNG exports could➡️30% rise in dom. gas prices. So far, gas supply has enabled ~11.4 Bcf/d LNG exports and ~6.1 Bcf/d pipeline exports to Mexico, + big HH price drop since 2016. (Cont'd) www.nytimes.com/2024/12/16/c...
‘Unfettered’ Gas Exports Would Harm U.S. Economy, Energy Secretary Warns
Jennifer Granholm said a new analysis showed that the continued pace of exports was “neither sustainable nor advisable.”
www.nytimes.com
December 17, 2024 at 3:41 PM
Imminent DOE LNG study: some surprising early findings in Granholm letter. 1. US #LNG exports could➡️30% rise in dom. gas prices. So far, gas supply has enabled ~11.4 Bcf/d LNG exports and ~6.1 Bcf/d pipeline exports to Mexico, + big HH price drop since 2016. (Cont'd) www.nytimes.com/2024/12/16/c...
No, the Biden administration did not ask the EU to loosen these regulations. The DOE and EPA asked the EU to begin considering "regulatory equivalence" for US exports. That will only happen if the EU judges that EPA regulations and IRA Waste Emissions Charge are equivalent to EU MRV rules. 1/2
If the EU has real regulations to require low associated methane emissions for the full life cycle for its imported LNG, the US can't qualify.
The Biden admin has already asked Europe to loosen these regs. A parting gift to us from the Biden admin.
The Biden admin has already asked Europe to loosen these regs. A parting gift to us from the Biden admin.
The European buyers of US LNG know it is dirty. They are hoping to buy "certified" cleaner LNG from the US. But if they think its simply about "hunting down supply chain leaks" then they are fooling themselves.
It isn't leaks, the methane releases from US oil and gas production are intentional.
It isn't leaks, the methane releases from US oil and gas production are intentional.
December 17, 2024 at 3:34 PM
No, the Biden administration did not ask the EU to loosen these regulations. The DOE and EPA asked the EU to begin considering "regulatory equivalence" for US exports. That will only happen if the EU judges that EPA regulations and IRA Waste Emissions Charge are equivalent to EU MRV rules. 1/2
Reposted by Ben Cahill
🔴New Paper!
Just in time for the big DoE #LNG study!
We present results from the first multi-scale measurements of #CarbonDioxide and #methane emissions at Sabine Pass & Corpus Christi LNG terminals over 16 months!
This has never been done before in the US at this scale! 💡🔌
#EnergySky
Just in time for the big DoE #LNG study!
We present results from the first multi-scale measurements of #CarbonDioxide and #methane emissions at Sabine Pass & Corpus Christi LNG terminals over 16 months!
This has never been done before in the US at this scale! 💡🔌
#EnergySky
Multiscale Measurements of Greenhouse Gas Emissions at U.S. Natural Gas Liquefaction Terminals
Addressing methane emissions across the liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply chain is key to reducing climate impacts of LNG. Actions to address methane emissions have emphasized the importance of the u...
pubs.acs.org
December 16, 2024 at 5:41 PM
🔴New Paper!
Just in time for the big DoE #LNG study!
We present results from the first multi-scale measurements of #CarbonDioxide and #methane emissions at Sabine Pass & Corpus Christi LNG terminals over 16 months!
This has never been done before in the US at this scale! 💡🔌
#EnergySky
Just in time for the big DoE #LNG study!
We present results from the first multi-scale measurements of #CarbonDioxide and #methane emissions at Sabine Pass & Corpus Christi LNG terminals over 16 months!
This has never been done before in the US at this scale! 💡🔌
#EnergySky
Reuters: draft Trump transition plans to cut EV tax incentives, weaken emissions standards, impose tariffs on "EV supply chain" components, but support critical minerals processing. Does this help the US auto sector or insulate it from competition & pressure to innovate? www.aol.com/news/exclusi...
Exclusive: Trump transition team plans sweeping rollback of Biden EV, emissions policies
Incoming U.S. President Donald Trump’s transition team is recommending sweeping changes to cut off support for electric vehicles and charging stations and to strengthen measures blocking cars, compone...
www.aol.com
December 16, 2024 at 4:22 PM
Reuters: draft Trump transition plans to cut EV tax incentives, weaken emissions standards, impose tariffs on "EV supply chain" components, but support critical minerals processing. Does this help the US auto sector or insulate it from competition & pressure to innovate? www.aol.com/news/exclusi...
US tariff threats + imminent election season in Canada triggering some important moves.
Breaking News: Chrystia Freeland, Canada's deputy prime minister, resigned from her cabinet role, suggesting Prime Minister Justin Trudeau tried to force her out.
Chrystia Freeland, Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister, Resigns From Cabinet
The departure of Ms. Freeland came hours before she was scheduled to outline the government’s commitments to improve border security with the United States.
www.nytimes.com
December 16, 2024 at 4:09 PM
US tariff threats + imminent election season in Canada triggering some important moves.
Reposted by Ben Cahill
Economists polled by @financialtimes.com & Chicago's Booth School of Business trimmed their estimates of how much the Fed will lower interest rates next year on fears that Trump's proposed policies, if enacted, will stoke inflation
www.ft.com/content/50ec...
www.ft.com/content/50ec...
December 16, 2024 at 1:07 PM
Economists polled by @financialtimes.com & Chicago's Booth School of Business trimmed their estimates of how much the Fed will lower interest rates next year on fears that Trump's proposed policies, if enacted, will stoke inflation
www.ft.com/content/50ec...
www.ft.com/content/50ec...
New one from me on Trump's return and the implications for Gulf oil producers. A big push on Iran sanctions could create opportunities for the Saudis and others. But I'm not so sure they'll jump to backfill Iranian supply. #OPEC agsiw.org/trump-2-0-oi...
Trump 2.0: Oil Market Implications for the Gulf States
As Trump seeks to maximize U.S. oil and gas output and choke off Iran’s oil exports, he will have no qualms about leaning into oil market issues.
agsiw.org
December 13, 2024 at 5:16 PM
New one from me on Trump's return and the implications for Gulf oil producers. A big push on Iran sanctions could create opportunities for the Saudis and others. But I'm not so sure they'll jump to backfill Iranian supply. #OPEC agsiw.org/trump-2-0-oi...
Cool chart. Where's the love for EIA forecasts? IEA bearishness and revisions and OPEC super-bullish outlook and downgrades get all the attention. Meanwhile, EIA keeps chugging and makes sensible changes.
Each of the major oil market outlook have their structural flaws.
For the IEA, a core issue has been that they're far too bearish on OECD demand.
This year alone, IEA initially expected a **400** kbpd contraction—since upgraded to 100 kbpd growth.
Half-million bpd swing!
For the IEA, a core issue has been that they're far too bearish on OECD demand.
This year alone, IEA initially expected a **400** kbpd contraction—since upgraded to 100 kbpd growth.
Half-million bpd swing!
December 13, 2024 at 4:22 PM
Cool chart. Where's the love for EIA forecasts? IEA bearishness and revisions and OPEC super-bullish outlook and downgrades get all the attention. Meanwhile, EIA keeps chugging and makes sensible changes.
This is ridiculous. It's also a bipartisan tradition in American politics to reward your donors by naming them ambassadors. Ambassadors should be career diplomats, not rich friends of the president!
In a 24-hour span, Trump announces jobs for the fathers-in-law of both of his daughters
December 2, 2024 at 12:09 AM
This is ridiculous. It's also a bipartisan tradition in American politics to reward your donors by naming them ambassadors. Ambassadors should be career diplomats, not rich friends of the president!
The DOE US #LNG study could be out very soon. Here's what I'll be watching. 1. The conclusions on domestic gas prices. How much could a sharp increase in LNG exports drive up domestic gas prices? And how will domestic prices be linked to international gas market conditions? (Continued)
November 29, 2024 at 2:39 PM
The DOE US #LNG study could be out very soon. Here's what I'll be watching. 1. The conclusions on domestic gas prices. How much could a sharp increase in LNG exports drive up domestic gas prices? And how will domestic prices be linked to international gas market conditions? (Continued)
OPEC+ meeting on Sunday. They are likely to (for a third time) delay their plans to bring barrels back online, after years of deep production cuts. The focus is on compliance, since Iraq, Kazakhstan, and the UAE are producing above target. The US shale boom is still hard to handle for OPEC+.
November 26, 2024 at 7:14 PM
OPEC+ meeting on Sunday. They are likely to (for a third time) delay their plans to bring barrels back online, after years of deep production cuts. The focus is on compliance, since Iraq, Kazakhstan, and the UAE are producing above target. The US shale boom is still hard to handle for OPEC+.
A visit from Saudi and Russian leaders ahead of this weekend's OPEC+ meeting. Sure looks like they're not happy with Iraq's compliance. More than 300 mb/d over quota for October, according to the IEA. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Iraq, Russia, Saudi Discuss Energy Markets Before OPEC+ Meeting
Officials from Iraq, Russia and Saudi Arabia — three of the biggest nations in the OPEC+ alliance — met in Baghdad to discuss energy markets days before the group’s year-end gathering.
www.bloomberg.com
November 26, 2024 at 1:25 PM
A visit from Saudi and Russian leaders ahead of this weekend's OPEC+ meeting. Sure looks like they're not happy with Iraq's compliance. More than 300 mb/d over quota for October, according to the IEA. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Is Trump serious about 25% tariffs on all goods from Canada and Mexico, or is this an opening salvo to get a "deal"? Either way it's a terrible idea. The U.S. imported 3.89 million barrels per day of Canadian crude last year. (More than 10x U.S. crude imports from Saudi Arabia, btw).
November 26, 2024 at 2:45 AM
Is Trump serious about 25% tariffs on all goods from Canada and Mexico, or is this an opening salvo to get a "deal"? Either way it's a terrible idea. The U.S. imported 3.89 million barrels per day of Canadian crude last year. (More than 10x U.S. crude imports from Saudi Arabia, btw).
Reposted by Ben Cahill
Surprising no one, Trump's transition team is compiling an energy package that would
🚢 Approve new LNG export plants
🛢️ Boost oil drilling off the US coast & on federal land
🚗 Repeal tax credits for EV
⚡️ Remove clean power plant standards
www.reuters.com/business/ene...
🚢 Approve new LNG export plants
🛢️ Boost oil drilling off the US coast & on federal land
🚗 Repeal tax credits for EV
⚡️ Remove clean power plant standards
www.reuters.com/business/ene...
Exclusive: Trump prepares wide-ranging energy plan to boost gas exports, oil drilling, sources say
The package would approve export permits for new LNG projects and increase oil drilling off the U.S. coast and on federal lands.
www.reuters.com
November 25, 2024 at 1:40 PM
Surprising no one, Trump's transition team is compiling an energy package that would
🚢 Approve new LNG export plants
🛢️ Boost oil drilling off the US coast & on federal land
🚗 Repeal tax credits for EV
⚡️ Remove clean power plant standards
www.reuters.com/business/ene...
🚢 Approve new LNG export plants
🛢️ Boost oil drilling off the US coast & on federal land
🚗 Repeal tax credits for EV
⚡️ Remove clean power plant standards
www.reuters.com/business/ene...