Bancroft Sutherland
@bancsutherland.bsky.social
Portfolio manager
Even 2011 had interesting aspects. ORCL was the 3rd largest position in the index - it had recovered all of the late-summer / debt-ceiling selloff and then promptly tanked nearly 20% in December. Ex-ORCL the index would have been positive that month.
Gimmicky low-N data analysis -- times in the past 25 years when the Nasdaq 100 was down in both November and December:
2000 (!)
2007 (!)
2011 (okay not exciting)
2018 (good buying opp)
2025* (if we closed here)
2000 (!)
2007 (!)
2011 (okay not exciting)
2018 (good buying opp)
2025* (if we closed here)
December 31, 2025 at 6:44 PM
Even 2011 had interesting aspects. ORCL was the 3rd largest position in the index - it had recovered all of the late-summer / debt-ceiling selloff and then promptly tanked nearly 20% in December. Ex-ORCL the index would have been positive that month.
My solution to feeling substantially better every day has been to:
Drink even more coffee (black)
Eliminate alcohol
Eliminate gluten
10 years ago I’d have considered the last two insane. Everyone’s different, but figure many could benefit by at least incrementally moving in those directions.
Drink even more coffee (black)
Eliminate alcohol
Eliminate gluten
10 years ago I’d have considered the last two insane. Everyone’s different, but figure many could benefit by at least incrementally moving in those directions.
December 31, 2025 at 5:11 PM
My solution to feeling substantially better every day has been to:
Drink even more coffee (black)
Eliminate alcohol
Eliminate gluten
10 years ago I’d have considered the last two insane. Everyone’s different, but figure many could benefit by at least incrementally moving in those directions.
Drink even more coffee (black)
Eliminate alcohol
Eliminate gluten
10 years ago I’d have considered the last two insane. Everyone’s different, but figure many could benefit by at least incrementally moving in those directions.
Heading into the last day of the year, returns since the post-Liberation Day low in April:
Large Cap (R1K): +39.3%
Small Cap (R2K): +43.1%
Foreign Developed: +36.9%
Foreign Emerging: +45.9%
US Bond Agg: +5.6%
Long UST (TLT): +2.8%
USD (DXY): -4.6%
Crude (WTI): -2.7%
Gold: +45.0%
Bitcoin: +14.6%
Large Cap (R1K): +39.3%
Small Cap (R2K): +43.1%
Foreign Developed: +36.9%
Foreign Emerging: +45.9%
US Bond Agg: +5.6%
Long UST (TLT): +2.8%
USD (DXY): -4.6%
Crude (WTI): -2.7%
Gold: +45.0%
Bitcoin: +14.6%
December 31, 2025 at 1:41 PM
Heading into the last day of the year, returns since the post-Liberation Day low in April:
Large Cap (R1K): +39.3%
Small Cap (R2K): +43.1%
Foreign Developed: +36.9%
Foreign Emerging: +45.9%
US Bond Agg: +5.6%
Long UST (TLT): +2.8%
USD (DXY): -4.6%
Crude (WTI): -2.7%
Gold: +45.0%
Bitcoin: +14.6%
Large Cap (R1K): +39.3%
Small Cap (R2K): +43.1%
Foreign Developed: +36.9%
Foreign Emerging: +45.9%
US Bond Agg: +5.6%
Long UST (TLT): +2.8%
USD (DXY): -4.6%
Crude (WTI): -2.7%
Gold: +45.0%
Bitcoin: +14.6%
CV theme to year-end coverage.
December 30, 2025 at 6:55 PM
CV theme to year-end coverage.
I wish I wanted anything in the world as much as the NYT wants me to Switch to All Access Family or to Add the Sunday Times in Print to my Subscription or to Give a Gift Subscription.
December 30, 2025 at 6:19 PM
I wish I wanted anything in the world as much as the NYT wants me to Switch to All Access Family or to Add the Sunday Times in Print to my Subscription or to Give a Gift Subscription.
Alternative SOTP valuation:
$55 Autos
$40 Energy
$330 Vibes
$55 Autos
$40 Energy
$330 Vibes
"But but but... robots!" - Morgan Stanley
(chart below is their estimate of per share value for each major part of the company. from their recent re-initiation piece.)
(chart below is their estimate of per share value for each major part of the company. from their recent re-initiation piece.)
December 30, 2025 at 2:32 PM
Alternative SOTP valuation:
$55 Autos
$40 Energy
$330 Vibes
$55 Autos
$40 Energy
$330 Vibes
From a portfolio management standpoint, the rush to hedge against USD earlier this year, as opposed to even a slowdown in inflows let alone actual outflows, was one of the most interesting dynamics/takeaways of the year.
One widespread narrative from earlier this year that was proven almost hilariously incorrect: US capital flight. The 6 months ended October saw the largest foreign inflows to US financial markets in history, mostly thanks to record equity net buys of $532bn, with over $200bn UST purchases too.
December 29, 2025 at 8:46 PM
From a portfolio management standpoint, the rush to hedge against USD earlier this year, as opposed to even a slowdown in inflows let alone actual outflows, was one of the most interesting dynamics/takeaways of the year.
Along the lines of a mercy rule in youth sports, if the YTD SPX return through 12/24 is in double digits, positive or negative, the market should be closed the entire last week of the year and re-open on 1/2.
December 29, 2025 at 7:18 PM
Along the lines of a mercy rule in youth sports, if the YTD SPX return through 12/24 is in double digits, positive or negative, the market should be closed the entire last week of the year and re-open on 1/2.
For as dominant as mega cap tech has been, small caps are now leading dating back to the 4th of July of last year.
December 29, 2025 at 4:00 PM
For as dominant as mega cap tech has been, small caps are now leading dating back to the 4th of July of last year.
Hard to get too surprised at anything theses days, but the advent of meme commodities is remarkable. Would have guessed FCOJ a more likely candidate, especially around Christmas, than a precious metal.
December 29, 2025 at 3:38 PM
Hard to get too surprised at anything theses days, but the advent of meme commodities is remarkable. Would have guessed FCOJ a more likely candidate, especially around Christmas, than a precious metal.
Getting a rate cut *during* a 4%+ GDP quarter is a good marker of an unusual macro environment.
Big 8:30 data slate
Q3 GDP +4.3% QoQ ann. vs +3.3% est.
Consumption +3.5% QoQ ann. vs +2.7% est.
Recall: this is the "second release" but its our first actual look because of the shutdown.
Durable goods data for Oct mixed, miss on headline but core capex beat.
Q3 GDP +4.3% QoQ ann. vs +3.3% est.
Consumption +3.5% QoQ ann. vs +2.7% est.
Recall: this is the "second release" but its our first actual look because of the shutdown.
Durable goods data for Oct mixed, miss on headline but core capex beat.
December 23, 2025 at 1:39 PM
Getting a rate cut *during* a 4%+ GDP quarter is a good marker of an unusual macro environment.
Not a combo you see every day:
- Retail stock
- Growing EPS at 10%+
- Trading at 40x fwd EPS
- In bear market territory
- Retail stock
- Growing EPS at 10%+
- Trading at 40x fwd EPS
- In bear market territory
$COST now in bear-market territory, not far from its worst drawdown since the GFC
December 20, 2025 at 1:21 PM
Not a combo you see every day:
- Retail stock
- Growing EPS at 10%+
- Trading at 40x fwd EPS
- In bear market territory
- Retail stock
- Growing EPS at 10%+
- Trading at 40x fwd EPS
- In bear market territory
Bloomberg’s Digital Politics Editor: “This warrior dividend, this check for $1,776, coming around holiday time for service members, really shows that they are paying attention to the poll numbers and seeing what they can do.”
I will never understand the default journalistic framing of this era.
I will never understand the default journalistic framing of this era.
December 18, 2025 at 12:20 PM
Bloomberg’s Digital Politics Editor: “This warrior dividend, this check for $1,776, coming around holiday time for service members, really shows that they are paying attention to the poll numbers and seeing what they can do.”
I will never understand the default journalistic framing of this era.
I will never understand the default journalistic framing of this era.
The number of ranchers and the number of consumers in the US are about equal, so you could see how the political calculus is tricky.
December 17, 2025 at 2:11 PM
The number of ranchers and the number of consumers in the US are about equal, so you could see how the political calculus is tricky.
If they had only announced a Moon Taxi initiative they could have gotten 5x this valuation.
Waymo Seeking Over $15 Billion at Valuation Near $100 Billion
Waymo, Alphabet Inc.’s autonomous driving unit, is in discussions to raise more than $15 billion at a valuation near $100 billion, in a round led by its parent company.
www.bloomberg.com
December 16, 2025 at 10:56 PM
If they had only announced a Moon Taxi initiative they could have gotten 5x this valuation.
If a company is worried about maintaining margins amid persistent inflation and potential tariff disruptions, while also being told that significant AI-driven productivity gains are right around the corner, I’m not sure another 50 bps moves the needle on hiring decisions.
Even if the private sector employment downturn has bottomed, there remains an unanswered question regarding how/why further rate cuts in this specific environment would spark accelerated hiring from here.
Private-sector hiring remains weak and may have stalled totally.
Since April, these numbers suggest monthly private sector job growth has averaged +45k per month.
But the Fed reckons job growth is overstated by at least this month.
= Private-sector hiring over recent months may well be negative.
Since April, these numbers suggest monthly private sector job growth has averaged +45k per month.
But the Fed reckons job growth is overstated by at least this month.
= Private-sector hiring over recent months may well be negative.
December 16, 2025 at 3:05 PM
If a company is worried about maintaining margins amid persistent inflation and potential tariff disruptions, while also being told that significant AI-driven productivity gains are right around the corner, I’m not sure another 50 bps moves the needle on hiring decisions.
Even if the private sector employment downturn has bottomed, there remains an unanswered question regarding how/why further rate cuts in this specific environment would spark accelerated hiring from here.
Private-sector hiring remains weak and may have stalled totally.
Since April, these numbers suggest monthly private sector job growth has averaged +45k per month.
But the Fed reckons job growth is overstated by at least this month.
= Private-sector hiring over recent months may well be negative.
Since April, these numbers suggest monthly private sector job growth has averaged +45k per month.
But the Fed reckons job growth is overstated by at least this month.
= Private-sector hiring over recent months may well be negative.
December 16, 2025 at 2:02 PM
Even if the private sector employment downturn has bottomed, there remains an unanswered question regarding how/why further rate cuts in this specific environment would spark accelerated hiring from here.
Increased potential for trades to go sideways in hilarious ways, at least.
December 16, 2025 at 12:13 PM
Increased potential for trades to go sideways in hilarious ways, at least.
Because it’s not?
December 12, 2025 at 8:57 PM
Because it’s not?
Just some minor news two days after the earnings release and one day after filing the 10-Q.
*SOME ORACLE DATA CENTERS FOR OPENAI DELAYED TO 2028 FROM 2027
*ORACLE DELAYS LARGELY DUE TO LABOR AND MATERIAL SHORTAGES
*ORACLE DELAYS LARGELY DUE TO LABOR AND MATERIAL SHORTAGES
December 12, 2025 at 4:08 PM
Just some minor news two days after the earnings release and one day after filing the 10-Q.
This statement coming from Rivian is very interesting. But if this statement eventually comes from Customer A, B, C, or D, though, it will really be a Happy Learned to Putt moment.
December 11, 2025 at 7:04 PM
This statement coming from Rivian is very interesting. But if this statement eventually comes from Customer A, B, C, or D, though, it will really be a Happy Learned to Putt moment.
The fact that DIS is positive on the day, and not falling on the risk it’s apparently taking with its IP, likely means the ORCL factor hasn’t yet spread wide enough to dent the broader narrative. Emphasis on yet.
December 11, 2025 at 3:44 PM
The fact that DIS is positive on the day, and not falling on the risk it’s apparently taking with its IP, likely means the ORCL factor hasn’t yet spread wide enough to dent the broader narrative. Emphasis on yet.
Steamboat Willie and the Boiler Explosion - A Tragedy
LOL. Disney licenses 200 characters to OpenAI's Sora.
December 11, 2025 at 2:15 PM
Steamboat Willie and the Boiler Explosion - A Tragedy
“Please do not fire a missile at the Nobel Peace Prize winner” is an actual (and extremely necessary) request that just happened.
Exclusive | Disguised and in Danger: How a Nobel Peace Prize Winner Escaped Venezuela
Opposition leader María Corina Machado slipped through 10 military checkpoints to reach a fishing boat bound for Curaçao and a private jet headed to Norway.
www.wsj.com
December 11, 2025 at 1:08 AM
“Please do not fire a missile at the Nobel Peace Prize winner” is an actual (and extremely necessary) request that just happened.
FOMC personnel changes aside, an argument can be made that inflation fears really should be driving rates higher, given after today they’ll have already cut by 75 over the last 12 weeks while core has been above target for going on 5 years now. But that’s certainly not been the catalyst thus far.
It just boggles the mind that people can honestly go with “new guy at Fed will run the economy hot!” as explainer at the same time 2Y yields head to top of four month range and the back-up in long end yields is being driven by reals. Like honestly, pretend to use data.
December 10, 2025 at 3:27 PM
FOMC personnel changes aside, an argument can be made that inflation fears really should be driving rates higher, given after today they’ll have already cut by 75 over the last 12 weeks while core has been above target for going on 5 years now. But that’s certainly not been the catalyst thus far.