Bancroft Sutherland
@bancsutherland.bsky.social
Portfolio manager
Wild take on urgent deflationary risks from guest on Bloomberg radio. Way out of consensus, so grabs attention and listen closer. Then hear “exclude tariffs” (one time adjustment), then hear “money supply”, crickets on labor supply situation, etc.
November 12, 2025 at 12:28 PM
Wild take on urgent deflationary risks from guest on Bloomberg radio. Way out of consensus, so grabs attention and listen closer. Then hear “exclude tariffs” (one time adjustment), then hear “money supply”, crickets on labor supply situation, etc.
I am the least conspiratorial-minded person I know, but am becoming increasingly convinced they are giving him AI-generated reports/videos that suit the preferred narrative, not only about the state of places like Portland/Chicago, but about inflation & any other policy metric they need to amplify.
November 9, 2025 at 2:31 PM
I am the least conspiratorial-minded person I know, but am becoming increasingly convinced they are giving him AI-generated reports/videos that suit the preferred narrative, not only about the state of places like Portland/Chicago, but about inflation & any other policy metric they need to amplify.
When the humanoids eventually become indistinguishable from us, we’re going to need to agree upon some equivalent of this tell.
Daily Telegraph Nov 7 1914 French man was drafted into German Army but he deserted and joined French. In Paris, soldier saluted a French officer in German style and the officer returned it with German salute. He flagged down a policeman and after questioning the officer was revealed to be a spy.
November 8, 2025 at 5:28 PM
When the humanoids eventually become indistinguishable from us, we’re going to need to agree upon some equivalent of this tell.
NVDA market cap is down about $650 billion since Monday.
Three years ago today, Nvidia’s entire market cap was $350 billion.
Three years ago today, Nvidia’s entire market cap was $350 billion.
November 7, 2025 at 4:33 PM
NVDA market cap is down about $650 billion since Monday.
Three years ago today, Nvidia’s entire market cap was $350 billion.
Three years ago today, Nvidia’s entire market cap was $350 billion.
Good visual today for illustrating trading vs investing
November 6, 2025 at 6:35 PM
Good visual today for illustrating trading vs investing
There are a lot of wild ass predictions out there these days, but the current chyron on Bloomberg is “IN 50 YEARS, NO HUMANS WILL COOK ANYMORE” and I really need a long-term prediction market for this one.
November 6, 2025 at 5:59 PM
There are a lot of wild ass predictions out there these days, but the current chyron on Bloomberg is “IN 50 YEARS, NO HUMANS WILL COOK ANYMORE” and I really need a long-term prediction market for this one.
Reposted by Bancroft Sutherland
2012 Lexus LFA at No Reserve
No Reserve: 2012 Lexus LFA
Bid for the chance to own a No Reserve: 2012 Lexus LFA at auction with Bring a Trailer, the home of the best vintage and classic cars online. Lot #219,424.
bringatrailer.com
November 6, 2025 at 1:30 AM
2012 Lexus LFA at No Reserve
Valuations are a determinant of long-term returns. They are not a catalyst, in and of themselves, for one-day price movements. Yesterday’s narrative did not make sense, as evidenced by today’s rebound. High valuations can create easier conditions for actual catalysts to spark a pullback, though.
November 5, 2025 at 7:54 PM
Valuations are a determinant of long-term returns. They are not a catalyst, in and of themselves, for one-day price movements. Yesterday’s narrative did not make sense, as evidenced by today’s rebound. High valuations can create easier conditions for actual catalysts to spark a pullback, though.
I know of someone who voted D yesterday for literally the first time in their life, with no intention of ever doing so again. They saw this as 100% a referendum on Georgia Power, so that view played at least some role. Regardless, an affordability/fairness message was the common thread last night.
In well-educated, exurban Forsyth County there was a 10-point blue shift from Kamala to the Dems in the Georgia PSC race. This was largely about high-propensity Dems in low-turnout elections getting an opportunity to lib out:
November 5, 2025 at 12:32 PM
I know of someone who voted D yesterday for literally the first time in their life, with no intention of ever doing so again. They saw this as 100% a referendum on Georgia Power, so that view played at least some role. Regardless, an affordability/fairness message was the common thread last night.
Today in “that’s not how this works”
November 4, 2025 at 3:42 PM
Today in “that’s not how this works”
Reposted by Bancroft Sutherland
the STFU sportsball people of bluesky take an L
*an L is short for loss, as in one of the many outcomes of a sporting event
*an L is short for loss, as in one of the many outcomes of a sporting event
This is a fun chart!
The green is the main bsky load balancer traffic throughput from Saturday night, and the purple is how much traffic there was 7 days before (the previous Saturday)
The spike is due to the world series - pretty incredible! ⚾
The green is the main bsky load balancer traffic throughput from Saturday night, and the purple is how much traffic there was 7 days before (the previous Saturday)
The spike is due to the world series - pretty incredible! ⚾
November 4, 2025 at 12:01 AM
the STFU sportsball people of bluesky take an L
*an L is short for loss, as in one of the many outcomes of a sporting event
*an L is short for loss, as in one of the many outcomes of a sporting event
Is this synergies?
KMB and KVUE lost a combined $2.4 billion in market cap today.
KMB and KVUE lost a combined $2.4 billion in market cap today.
...ow?
*KIMBERLY-CLARK CLOSES DOWN 15%, WORST DROP SINCE OCTOBER 1987
*KIMBERLY-CLARK CLOSES DOWN 15%, WORST DROP SINCE OCTOBER 1987
Tylenol maker KVUE being bought out by KMB
*KIMBERLY-CLARK TO BUY KENVUE IN A CASH & STOCK TRANSACTION
*KIMBERLY-CLARK TO BUY KENVUE IN A CASH & STOCK TRANSACTION
November 3, 2025 at 11:09 PM
Is this synergies?
KMB and KVUE lost a combined $2.4 billion in market cap today.
KMB and KVUE lost a combined $2.4 billion in market cap today.
SPX closed up 17 bps. Together, NVDA and AMZN contributed +32 bps to the total.
November 3, 2025 at 9:27 PM
SPX closed up 17 bps. Together, NVDA and AMZN contributed +32 bps to the total.
Data input issues (as noted by @domw.bsky.social ) aside, if the current nowcast is proven accurate, would this be the first time the FOMC ever cut *during* a quarter in which GDP growth printed at 4%?
On November 3, the GDPNow model nowcast of real #GDP growth in Q3 2025 is 4.0%: bit.ly/32EYojR.
Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast: bit.ly/2TPeYLT.
Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast: bit.ly/2TPeYLT.
November 3, 2025 at 6:04 PM
Data input issues (as noted by @domw.bsky.social ) aside, if the current nowcast is proven accurate, would this be the first time the FOMC ever cut *during* a quarter in which GDP growth printed at 4%?
I’ll know the high-end consumer is starting to feel some strain when the BloombergTV app stops running an ad for a six-figure wristwatch every commercial break.
November 3, 2025 at 3:54 PM
I’ll know the high-end consumer is starting to feel some strain when the BloombergTV app stops running an ad for a six-figure wristwatch every commercial break.
With that cash pile, Buffett could buy every NFL team, every MLB team, and every NHL team. And still have about $3b left over for NIL deals to make Nebraska football relevant and win some titles.
If Berkshire spun out its cash position into a new entity, that stock would be a top-25 S&P 500 component.
Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Cash Pile Soars to $381.7 Billion
Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s cash pile soared to $381.7 billion in the third quarter, a fresh record, and operating earnings at Chief Executive Officer Warren Buffett’s conglomerate surged 34%.
www.bloomberg.com
November 2, 2025 at 12:58 PM
With that cash pile, Buffett could buy every NFL team, every MLB team, and every NHL team. And still have about $3b left over for NIL deals to make Nebraska football relevant and win some titles.
103 days until pitchers and catchers report.
November 2, 2025 at 4:26 AM
103 days until pitchers and catchers report.
If it goes to the 14th inning tonight they first have to replay the 13th.
November 2, 2025 at 3:53 AM
If it goes to the 14th inning tonight they first have to replay the 13th.
This is just how Roaring Kitty gets around town.
November 2, 2025 at 3:01 AM
This is just how Roaring Kitty gets around town.
If Berkshire spun out its cash position into a new entity, that stock would be a top-25 S&P 500 component.
Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Cash Pile Soars to $381.7 Billion
Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s cash pile soared to $381.7 billion in the third quarter, a fresh record, and operating earnings at Chief Executive Officer Warren Buffett’s conglomerate surged 34%.
www.bloomberg.com
November 1, 2025 at 12:51 PM
If Berkshire spun out its cash position into a new entity, that stock would be a top-25 S&P 500 component.
Current SPX attribution this morning:
AMZN: +38 bps
NVDA: +12 bps
Everything else combined: flat
AMZN: +38 bps
NVDA: +12 bps
Everything else combined: flat
October 31, 2025 at 2:09 PM
Current SPX attribution this morning:
AMZN: +38 bps
NVDA: +12 bps
Everything else combined: flat
AMZN: +38 bps
NVDA: +12 bps
Everything else combined: flat
AMZN and AAPL are currently up a combined $425 billion after hours. There are only 20 US companies with entire market caps greater than that move.
October 30, 2025 at 8:52 PM
AMZN and AAPL are currently up a combined $425 billion after hours. There are only 20 US companies with entire market caps greater than that move.
Well, today’s Odd Lots has convinced me that a significant portion of humanity is going to experience a collective mass psychosis some time in the near future. Fun. Felt like I was going crazy listening to that conversation.
October 30, 2025 at 6:33 PM
Well, today’s Odd Lots has convinced me that a significant portion of humanity is going to experience a collective mass psychosis some time in the near future. Fun. Felt like I was going crazy listening to that conversation.
From generally very hawkish to then offering the view that “policy is still modestly restrictive” as a driver of labor market cooling…
This is essentially what you would expect a flying-blind press conference to sound like.
This is essentially what you would expect a flying-blind press conference to sound like.
October 29, 2025 at 6:59 PM
From generally very hawkish to then offering the view that “policy is still modestly restrictive” as a driver of labor market cooling…
This is essentially what you would expect a flying-blind press conference to sound like.
This is essentially what you would expect a flying-blind press conference to sound like.