Aus_Econ
@ausecon.bsky.social
Interested in all things Australian economics, especially macroeconomics.
Refugee from ‘X’, having permanently deleted my old profile there - hoping this platform replaces it
Refugee from ‘X’, having permanently deleted my old profile there - hoping this platform replaces it
Reposted by Aus_Econ
Woollahra Council are having a massive sook over plans for more housing directly behind Edgecliff Station. They say one of the richest parts of the country has enough housing already, and moan about traffic and heritage.
Have your say:
www.planningportal.nsw.gov.au/ppr/under-ex...
Have your say:
www.planningportal.nsw.gov.au/ppr/under-ex...
May 30, 2025 at 6:18 AM
Woollahra Council are having a massive sook over plans for more housing directly behind Edgecliff Station. They say one of the richest parts of the country has enough housing already, and moan about traffic and heritage.
Have your say:
www.planningportal.nsw.gov.au/ppr/under-ex...
Have your say:
www.planningportal.nsw.gov.au/ppr/under-ex...
Reposted by Aus_Econ
Both headline and trimmed mean inflation in Australia are around target
The monthly trimmed mean inflation rate points to a further step down in quarterly annual trimmed mean inflation.
The Mthly CPI is continuing to see more items with annual inflation below 2%yoy than above 3%
The monthly trimmed mean inflation rate points to a further step down in quarterly annual trimmed mean inflation.
The Mthly CPI is continuing to see more items with annual inflation below 2%yoy than above 3%
March 26, 2025 at 6:36 AM
Both headline and trimmed mean inflation in Australia are around target
The monthly trimmed mean inflation rate points to a further step down in quarterly annual trimmed mean inflation.
The Mthly CPI is continuing to see more items with annual inflation below 2%yoy than above 3%
The monthly trimmed mean inflation rate points to a further step down in quarterly annual trimmed mean inflation.
The Mthly CPI is continuing to see more items with annual inflation below 2%yoy than above 3%
Reposted by Aus_Econ
Australia’s composite PMI +0.7pts to 51,3 in March mainly driven by manufacturing with new orders and employment up.
Input price pressures rose but output price pressures fell.
Input price pressures rose but output price pressures fell.
March 23, 2025 at 11:33 PM
Australia’s composite PMI +0.7pts to 51,3 in March mainly driven by manufacturing with new orders and employment up.
Input price pressures rose but output price pressures fell.
Input price pressures rose but output price pressures fell.
Reposted by Aus_Econ
Feb Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge -0.2%mom/2.2%yoy
Trimmed mean -0.1%mom/2.3%yoy
Suggests a continuing downtrend in the ABS’ measures of CPI and trimmed mean inflation supporting the case for further RBA rate cuts this year.
Trimmed mean -0.1%mom/2.3%yoy
Suggests a continuing downtrend in the ABS’ measures of CPI and trimmed mean inflation supporting the case for further RBA rate cuts this year.
March 3, 2025 at 1:56 AM
Feb Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge -0.2%mom/2.2%yoy
Trimmed mean -0.1%mom/2.3%yoy
Suggests a continuing downtrend in the ABS’ measures of CPI and trimmed mean inflation supporting the case for further RBA rate cuts this year.
Trimmed mean -0.1%mom/2.3%yoy
Suggests a continuing downtrend in the ABS’ measures of CPI and trimmed mean inflation supporting the case for further RBA rate cuts this year.
Reposted by Aus_Econ
The Jan CPI indicator suggests quarterly inflation is holding ~2.5%yoy (altho electricity rebates are still rolling off) and trimmed mean points to a further fall in qtrly trimmed mean infl.
Aust inflation is in line with other major countries with trimmed mean ~ Can & Europe
Aust inflation is in line with other major countries with trimmed mean ~ Can & Europe
February 26, 2025 at 1:39 AM
The Jan CPI indicator suggests quarterly inflation is holding ~2.5%yoy (altho electricity rebates are still rolling off) and trimmed mean points to a further fall in qtrly trimmed mean infl.
Aust inflation is in line with other major countries with trimmed mean ~ Can & Europe
Aust inflation is in line with other major countries with trimmed mean ~ Can & Europe
Reposted by Aus_Econ
Eurozone shares -0.4%
US shares -0.5% after initially +0.5%,with Nas -1.2% & Trump saying expects 25% tariffs on Can & Mex to go ahead
US 10 yr yld -3bp to 4.4%
Oil +0.7% to $70.8
Gold +0.5% to $2051.4
Iron ore +0.05% to $107.6
Bitcoin $94.3k
ASX futures -0.8%
$A 0.6347 w $US flat
US shares -0.5% after initially +0.5%,with Nas -1.2% & Trump saying expects 25% tariffs on Can & Mex to go ahead
US 10 yr yld -3bp to 4.4%
Oil +0.7% to $70.8
Gold +0.5% to $2051.4
Iron ore +0.05% to $107.6
Bitcoin $94.3k
ASX futures -0.8%
$A 0.6347 w $US flat
February 24, 2025 at 9:35 PM
Eurozone shares -0.4%
US shares -0.5% after initially +0.5%,with Nas -1.2% & Trump saying expects 25% tariffs on Can & Mex to go ahead
US 10 yr yld -3bp to 4.4%
Oil +0.7% to $70.8
Gold +0.5% to $2051.4
Iron ore +0.05% to $107.6
Bitcoin $94.3k
ASX futures -0.8%
$A 0.6347 w $US flat
US shares -0.5% after initially +0.5%,with Nas -1.2% & Trump saying expects 25% tariffs on Can & Mex to go ahead
US 10 yr yld -3bp to 4.4%
Oil +0.7% to $70.8
Gold +0.5% to $2051.4
Iron ore +0.05% to $107.6
Bitcoin $94.3k
ASX futures -0.8%
$A 0.6347 w $US flat
Reposted by Aus_Econ
The attached note takes a look at the RBA’s move to cut rates and what it means for the economy and investors.
www.amp.com.au/resources/in...
www.amp.com.au/resources/in...
Oliver's Insights - The RBA starts cutting rates - AMP
Last December the RBA noted that “if the future flow of data continued to evolve in line with or weaker than [RBA] expectations…it would in due course be appropriate to begin relaxing the degree of mo...
www.amp.com.au
February 19, 2025 at 6:12 AM
The attached note takes a look at the RBA’s move to cut rates and what it means for the economy and investors.
www.amp.com.au/resources/in...
www.amp.com.au/resources/in...
Reposted by Aus_Econ
RBA cut to 4.1% as expected citing inflation easing a little faster than expected & more confidence its moving back to target
But it was a cautious cut with upside risks to infl & a tight labour mkt
We expect RBA to hold in Apr & cut again in May & Aug taking cash rate to 3.6%
But it was a cautious cut with upside risks to infl & a tight labour mkt
We expect RBA to hold in Apr & cut again in May & Aug taking cash rate to 3.6%
February 18, 2025 at 3:53 AM
RBA cut to 4.1% as expected citing inflation easing a little faster than expected & more confidence its moving back to target
But it was a cautious cut with upside risks to infl & a tight labour mkt
We expect RBA to hold in Apr & cut again in May & Aug taking cash rate to 3.6%
But it was a cautious cut with upside risks to infl & a tight labour mkt
We expect RBA to hold in Apr & cut again in May & Aug taking cash rate to 3.6%
Reposted by Aus_Econ
This attached note takes a look at some of the main questions investors have in a simple Q&A format, particularly around Trump’s tariffs, the impact on Australia, the RBA next week, the $A and gold.
www.amp.com.au/resources/in...
www.amp.com.au/resources/in...
Oliver's insights Investment outlook Q&A - AMP
This note takes a look at some of the main questions investors have in a simple Q&A format, particularly around tariffs, the RBA and gold.
www.amp.com.au
February 11, 2025 at 4:31 AM
This attached note takes a look at some of the main questions investors have in a simple Q&A format, particularly around Trump’s tariffs, the impact on Australia, the RBA next week, the $A and gold.
www.amp.com.au/resources/in...
www.amp.com.au/resources/in...
Reposted by Aus_Econ
Eurozone shares +0.1% (+1.3% wk)
US shares -0.5% (-1% wk), +0.8% but fell as Trump repeated 1 Feb tariffs on Can, Mex & Ch
US 10 yr yld +3bp to 4.54%
Oil +1.2% to $73.6 w Trump talking tariff on oil
Gold +0.1% to $2798.4
Bitcoin $102.3k
Iron ore flat at $101.6
ASX futures -1.2%
$A 0.621 w $US +0.7%
US shares -0.5% (-1% wk), +0.8% but fell as Trump repeated 1 Feb tariffs on Can, Mex & Ch
US 10 yr yld +3bp to 4.54%
Oil +1.2% to $73.6 w Trump talking tariff on oil
Gold +0.1% to $2798.4
Bitcoin $102.3k
Iron ore flat at $101.6
ASX futures -1.2%
$A 0.621 w $US +0.7%
January 31, 2025 at 10:51 PM
Eurozone shares +0.1% (+1.3% wk)
US shares -0.5% (-1% wk), +0.8% but fell as Trump repeated 1 Feb tariffs on Can, Mex & Ch
US 10 yr yld +3bp to 4.54%
Oil +1.2% to $73.6 w Trump talking tariff on oil
Gold +0.1% to $2798.4
Bitcoin $102.3k
Iron ore flat at $101.6
ASX futures -1.2%
$A 0.621 w $US +0.7%
US shares -0.5% (-1% wk), +0.8% but fell as Trump repeated 1 Feb tariffs on Can, Mex & Ch
US 10 yr yld +3bp to 4.54%
Oil +1.2% to $73.6 w Trump talking tariff on oil
Gold +0.1% to $2798.4
Bitcoin $102.3k
Iron ore flat at $101.6
ASX futures -1.2%
$A 0.621 w $US +0.7%
Reposted by Aus_Econ
Bluesky is having another surge and is less than 10,000 users away from 30 million.
January 29, 2025 at 3:32 AM
Bluesky is having another surge and is less than 10,000 users away from 30 million.
Reposted by Aus_Econ
Aust Dec qtr CPI +0.2%qoq/2.4%y, trimmed mean +0.5%q/3.2%y
This was in line with our forecasts but < RBA & mkt.
Trimmed mean was 2%annualised in Dec qtr & 2.7%annualised for last 6 mths
Dec Mthly trimmed mean slowed to 2.7%y
Expect RBA to cut in Feb & in May
Money mkt prob is 91%
This was in line with our forecasts but < RBA & mkt.
Trimmed mean was 2%annualised in Dec qtr & 2.7%annualised for last 6 mths
Dec Mthly trimmed mean slowed to 2.7%y
Expect RBA to cut in Feb & in May
Money mkt prob is 91%
January 29, 2025 at 1:33 AM
Aust Dec qtr CPI +0.2%qoq/2.4%y, trimmed mean +0.5%q/3.2%y
This was in line with our forecasts but < RBA & mkt.
Trimmed mean was 2%annualised in Dec qtr & 2.7%annualised for last 6 mths
Dec Mthly trimmed mean slowed to 2.7%y
Expect RBA to cut in Feb & in May
Money mkt prob is 91%
This was in line with our forecasts but < RBA & mkt.
Trimmed mean was 2%annualised in Dec qtr & 2.7%annualised for last 6 mths
Dec Mthly trimmed mean slowed to 2.7%y
Expect RBA to cut in Feb & in May
Money mkt prob is 91%
Reposted by Aus_Econ
The US PMI for Jan fell sharply as services slowed. Input and output prices rose, possibly due to higher oil prices, but the trend remains down in the latter suggesting disinflation continues.
January 24, 2025 at 10:38 PM
The US PMI for Jan fell sharply as services slowed. Input and output prices rose, possibly due to higher oil prices, but the trend remains down in the latter suggesting disinflation continues.
@sydney.yimby.au @cityofsydney.bsky.social has put up for consultation their entertainment zones policy, which aims to relax rules around the night time economy. Not housing related but NIMBYs will be out in force and need to be countered! Takes 5 mins www.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au/policy-plann...
Your say on special entertainment precincts - City of Sydney
We invite your feedback on our plans to enhance nightlife and encourage live music and performance.
www.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au
January 14, 2025 at 5:13 AM
@sydney.yimby.au @cityofsydney.bsky.social has put up for consultation their entertainment zones policy, which aims to relax rules around the night time economy. Not housing related but NIMBYs will be out in force and need to be countered! Takes 5 mins www.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au/policy-plann...
Reposted by Aus_Econ
Talk of a $3.7bn Boxing Day/end yr spending boost is not really that impressive: more spending in “sales” periods reflects struggling consumers searching for bargains & +2.7%yoy means real sales per person will actually go backwards by ~2%yoy after inflation & pop grth
www.afr.com/companies/re...
www.afr.com/companies/re...
Retailers buoyed as shoppers swarm Boxing Day sales
Customers are also predicted to splash out a further $2.4 billion during the last days of December, research shows.
www.afr.com
December 26, 2024 at 9:47 AM
Talk of a $3.7bn Boxing Day/end yr spending boost is not really that impressive: more spending in “sales” periods reflects struggling consumers searching for bargains & +2.7%yoy means real sales per person will actually go backwards by ~2%yoy after inflation & pop grth
www.afr.com/companies/re...
www.afr.com/companies/re...
Reposted by Aus_Econ
Aust Sep qtr residential vacancy rates remains very low according to REIA data but are starting to edge up, esp in Perth.
This in turn along with poor rental affordability is seeing rental grth slow…consistent with other indicators of slowing rental grth (eg from Core Logic)
This in turn along with poor rental affordability is seeing rental grth slow…consistent with other indicators of slowing rental grth (eg from Core Logic)
December 16, 2024 at 1:21 AM
Aust Sep qtr residential vacancy rates remains very low according to REIA data but are starting to edge up, esp in Perth.
This in turn along with poor rental affordability is seeing rental grth slow…consistent with other indicators of slowing rental grth (eg from Core Logic)
This in turn along with poor rental affordability is seeing rental grth slow…consistent with other indicators of slowing rental grth (eg from Core Logic)
Reposted by Aus_Econ
China Nov data was softer than exp, esp retail & inv. However, retail sales may have been distorted by early Double 11 sales that pulled spending into Oct.
Still a 2 speed econ with weak property sales & investment but home price falls have slowed.
2024 GDP likely ~5%. But still need more stimulus.
Still a 2 speed econ with weak property sales & investment but home price falls have slowed.
2024 GDP likely ~5%. But still need more stimulus.
December 16, 2024 at 4:06 AM
China Nov data was softer than exp, esp retail & inv. However, retail sales may have been distorted by early Double 11 sales that pulled spending into Oct.
Still a 2 speed econ with weak property sales & investment but home price falls have slowed.
2024 GDP likely ~5%. But still need more stimulus.
Still a 2 speed econ with weak property sales & investment but home price falls have slowed.
2024 GDP likely ~5%. But still need more stimulus.
Reposted by Aus_Econ
We are firmly on a path towards 100% renewable energy. We're already at almost 40%. But Dutton's wants to slam the brakes on clean energy - and keep coal burning for longer.
Dutton's nuclear policy would have coal-fired power stations operating longer
The opposition has finally put in place the last piece of its controversial nuclear policy, with modelling claiming its alternative would cost $260 billion less than Labor's transition path to net zer...
www.abc.net.au
December 13, 2024 at 12:22 AM
We are firmly on a path towards 100% renewable energy. We're already at almost 40%. But Dutton's wants to slam the brakes on clean energy - and keep coal burning for longer.
Reposted by Aus_Econ
One of the best #ausecon economists and commentators, Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social chief economist at AMP has moved across from the other place to join Bluesky, which is great news. Welcome him with a follow!
NAB biz confidence and conditions fell in Nov, conditions lowest since covid.
The emp component still points down for jobs grth.
Cost & price pressures continue to trend down with final product prices nearly back to precovid range & at 0.6%qoq are consistent with the inflation target
The emp component still points down for jobs grth.
Cost & price pressures continue to trend down with final product prices nearly back to precovid range & at 0.6%qoq are consistent with the inflation target
December 10, 2024 at 8:58 AM
One of the best #ausecon economists and commentators, Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social chief economist at AMP has moved across from the other place to join Bluesky, which is great news. Welcome him with a follow!
Reposted by Aus_Econ
My 1st ever post on @Bluesky! A brief & early history of the fall of Assad. If u have 5 mins here’s my take on Assad, his use of barrel bombs, who Hayat Tahrir al-Sham are and what all this means for Iran & Russia. www.youtube.com/watch?v=oi-e...
Assad has been defeated in Syria. What happens next? | ABC NEWS
YouTube video by ABC News (Australia)
www.youtube.com
December 10, 2024 at 10:58 AM
My 1st ever post on @Bluesky! A brief & early history of the fall of Assad. If u have 5 mins here’s my take on Assad, his use of barrel bombs, who Hayat Tahrir al-Sham are and what all this means for Iran & Russia. www.youtube.com/watch?v=oi-e...
One of the best #ausecon economists and commentators, Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social chief economist at AMP has moved across from the other place to join Bluesky, which is great news. Welcome him with a follow!
NAB biz confidence and conditions fell in Nov, conditions lowest since covid.
The emp component still points down for jobs grth.
Cost & price pressures continue to trend down with final product prices nearly back to precovid range & at 0.6%qoq are consistent with the inflation target
The emp component still points down for jobs grth.
Cost & price pressures continue to trend down with final product prices nearly back to precovid range & at 0.6%qoq are consistent with the inflation target
December 10, 2024 at 8:58 AM
One of the best #ausecon economists and commentators, Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social chief economist at AMP has moved across from the other place to join Bluesky, which is great news. Welcome him with a follow!
Reposted by Aus_Econ
Aust Oct CPI 2.1%yoy, <exp,helped by -12.3%mom for electricity (rebates). RBA will look thro this & focus on underlying inflation & here the news was mixed with infl ex volatiles falling to 2.4%y,but trimmed mean 3.5%y. The latter is trending down but will leave RBA on hold for now.
November 27, 2024 at 1:25 AM
Aust Oct CPI 2.1%yoy, <exp,helped by -12.3%mom for electricity (rebates). RBA will look thro this & focus on underlying inflation & here the news was mixed with infl ex volatiles falling to 2.4%y,but trimmed mean 3.5%y. The latter is trending down but will leave RBA on hold for now.
Reposted by Aus_Econ
Aust PMI for Nov -0.8pts to a soft 49.4.
Input & output price measures went sideways but remain in a downtrend, well down from highs
Emp remained soft
Falling price pressures keep a Feb rate cut alive, but RBA mins wanting 2 good qtrly CPIs suggest a hi risk of waiting to May
Input & output price measures went sideways but remain in a downtrend, well down from highs
Emp remained soft
Falling price pressures keep a Feb rate cut alive, but RBA mins wanting 2 good qtrly CPIs suggest a hi risk of waiting to May
November 21, 2024 at 11:19 PM
Aust PMI for Nov -0.8pts to a soft 49.4.
Input & output price measures went sideways but remain in a downtrend, well down from highs
Emp remained soft
Falling price pressures keep a Feb rate cut alive, but RBA mins wanting 2 good qtrly CPIs suggest a hi risk of waiting to May
Input & output price measures went sideways but remain in a downtrend, well down from highs
Emp remained soft
Falling price pressures keep a Feb rate cut alive, but RBA mins wanting 2 good qtrly CPIs suggest a hi risk of waiting to May
Reposted by Aus_Econ
My first posting on BlueSky... hello
November 29, 2024 at 6:30 AM
My first posting on BlueSky... hello
Reposted by Aus_Econ
Celebrating our return to Bluesky by sharing the most batshit Australian speech ever given: Bob Katter's gay marriage speech, in all its unhinged glory. Enjoy.
October 17, 2024 at 1:08 PM
Celebrating our return to Bluesky by sharing the most batshit Australian speech ever given: Bob Katter's gay marriage speech, in all its unhinged glory. Enjoy.