Shane Oliver
@shaneoliver.bsky.social
Chief Economist & Head of Inv Strategy, AMP. Into boats, pop music, nature, economics, investing, my family…& being nice. I don’t solicit funds or spruik trading schemes.
Prelim Domain auction clearances
Syd 64%=final ~62%,Nov avg 60
Mel 65%=final ~63%,Nov avg 61
Clearances slowing with less rate cut optimism & rising listings but looks partly seasonal. Avg clearances fall ~6-7% Aug to Nov. Support remains from the 3 rate cuts & low deposit FHB scheme.
#ausecon
Syd 64%=final ~62%,Nov avg 60
Mel 65%=final ~63%,Nov avg 61
Clearances slowing with less rate cut optimism & rising listings but looks partly seasonal. Avg clearances fall ~6-7% Aug to Nov. Support remains from the 3 rate cuts & low deposit FHB scheme.
#ausecon
November 22, 2025 at 7:51 AM
Prelim Domain auction clearances
Syd 64%=final ~62%,Nov avg 60
Mel 65%=final ~63%,Nov avg 61
Clearances slowing with less rate cut optimism & rising listings but looks partly seasonal. Avg clearances fall ~6-7% Aug to Nov. Support remains from the 3 rate cuts & low deposit FHB scheme.
#ausecon
Syd 64%=final ~62%,Nov avg 60
Mel 65%=final ~63%,Nov avg 61
Clearances slowing with less rate cut optimism & rising listings but looks partly seasonal. Avg clearances fall ~6-7% Aug to Nov. Support remains from the 3 rate cuts & low deposit FHB scheme.
#ausecon
US University of Mich consumer sentiment remaining very weak
1 yr ahead inflation expectations fell to 4.5% from 4.7%
5-10 yr ahead inflation expectations fell to 3.4% from 3.6% (which is getting closer to levels more consistent with the 2% inflation target)
(Bloomberg charts)
1 yr ahead inflation expectations fell to 4.5% from 4.7%
5-10 yr ahead inflation expectations fell to 3.4% from 3.6% (which is getting closer to levels more consistent with the 2% inflation target)
(Bloomberg charts)
November 21, 2025 at 11:12 PM
US University of Mich consumer sentiment remaining very weak
1 yr ahead inflation expectations fell to 4.5% from 4.7%
5-10 yr ahead inflation expectations fell to 3.4% from 3.6% (which is getting closer to levels more consistent with the 2% inflation target)
(Bloomberg charts)
1 yr ahead inflation expectations fell to 4.5% from 4.7%
5-10 yr ahead inflation expectations fell to 3.4% from 3.6% (which is getting closer to levels more consistent with the 2% inflation target)
(Bloomberg charts)
Eurozone shares -1% (-3.1% wk)
US shares +1% (-1.9% wk) as Feds Williams see room for a near term rate cut (mkt back to 60% prob for Dec)
US 10 yr yld -2bp to 4.06%
Oil -1.6% to $58
Gold -0.3% to $4065
Iron ore -0.05% to $104.3
Bitcoin $84.2k
ASX futures +1.1%
$A 0.645 w $US flat
US shares +1% (-1.9% wk) as Feds Williams see room for a near term rate cut (mkt back to 60% prob for Dec)
US 10 yr yld -2bp to 4.06%
Oil -1.6% to $58
Gold -0.3% to $4065
Iron ore -0.05% to $104.3
Bitcoin $84.2k
ASX futures +1.1%
$A 0.645 w $US flat
November 21, 2025 at 11:08 PM
Eurozone shares -1% (-3.1% wk)
US shares +1% (-1.9% wk) as Feds Williams see room for a near term rate cut (mkt back to 60% prob for Dec)
US 10 yr yld -2bp to 4.06%
Oil -1.6% to $58
Gold -0.3% to $4065
Iron ore -0.05% to $104.3
Bitcoin $84.2k
ASX futures +1.1%
$A 0.645 w $US flat
US shares +1% (-1.9% wk) as Feds Williams see room for a near term rate cut (mkt back to 60% prob for Dec)
US 10 yr yld -2bp to 4.06%
Oil -1.6% to $58
Gold -0.3% to $4065
Iron ore -0.05% to $104.3
Bitcoin $84.2k
ASX futures +1.1%
$A 0.645 w $US flat
Australia’s November composite PMI rose to a solid reading of 52.6, with stronger manufacturing & orders in a rising trend. But employment plans fell.
Output prices rose but the trend is down suggesting softer December quarter inflation.
(Macquarie Macro Strategy charts)
Output prices rose but the trend is down suggesting softer December quarter inflation.
(Macquarie Macro Strategy charts)
November 21, 2025 at 3:15 AM
Australia’s November composite PMI rose to a solid reading of 52.6, with stronger manufacturing & orders in a rising trend. But employment plans fell.
Output prices rose but the trend is down suggesting softer December quarter inflation.
(Macquarie Macro Strategy charts)
Output prices rose but the trend is down suggesting softer December quarter inflation.
(Macquarie Macro Strategy charts)
Eurozone shares +0.5%
US shares -1.6% after +1.9%,as concerns re valuations, speculation & Fed cuts returned. Now -5.1% v hi. Nas -2.2%
US 10 yr yld -4bp to 4.09%
Oil -1.3% to $58.7
Gold +0.2% to $4079.6
Iron ore -0.2% to $104.4
Bitcoin $87.1k
ASX futures -1.7%
$A 0.644 with $US +0.1%
US shares -1.6% after +1.9%,as concerns re valuations, speculation & Fed cuts returned. Now -5.1% v hi. Nas -2.2%
US 10 yr yld -4bp to 4.09%
Oil -1.3% to $58.7
Gold +0.2% to $4079.6
Iron ore -0.2% to $104.4
Bitcoin $87.1k
ASX futures -1.7%
$A 0.644 with $US +0.1%
November 20, 2025 at 9:29 PM
Eurozone shares +0.5%
US shares -1.6% after +1.9%,as concerns re valuations, speculation & Fed cuts returned. Now -5.1% v hi. Nas -2.2%
US 10 yr yld -4bp to 4.09%
Oil -1.3% to $58.7
Gold +0.2% to $4079.6
Iron ore -0.2% to $104.4
Bitcoin $87.1k
ASX futures -1.7%
$A 0.644 with $US +0.1%
US shares -1.6% after +1.9%,as concerns re valuations, speculation & Fed cuts returned. Now -5.1% v hi. Nas -2.2%
US 10 yr yld -4bp to 4.09%
Oil -1.3% to $58.7
Gold +0.2% to $4079.6
Iron ore -0.2% to $104.4
Bitcoin $87.1k
ASX futures -1.7%
$A 0.644 with $US +0.1%
US Nov Phily Fed manufacturing index +11 points to a still soft -1.7pts, with new orders down but employment up. Prices paid rose and are still elevated.
(No clear signal here for Fed)
(No clear signal here for Fed)
November 20, 2025 at 3:33 PM
US Nov Phily Fed manufacturing index +11 points to a still soft -1.7pts, with new orders down but employment up. Prices paid rose and are still elevated.
(No clear signal here for Fed)
(No clear signal here for Fed)
US delayed jobless claims now released and show initial claims little changed, but continuing claims continuing to rise. So no dramatic weakening and it’s still a low firing but low hiring environment.
(EvercoreISI charts)
(EvercoreISI charts)
November 20, 2025 at 3:28 PM
US delayed jobless claims now released and show initial claims little changed, but continuing claims continuing to rise. So no dramatic weakening and it’s still a low firing but low hiring environment.
(EvercoreISI charts)
(EvercoreISI charts)
US Sept payrolls +119k, >exp but payrolls revised down by 33k for months, hrs wkd were flat, unemployment rose unexpectedly to 4.4% & wages growth was unchanged at 3.8%yoy. And the trend in payroll grth is down.
Overall this is neutral for Fed interest rates.
(EvercoreISI charts)
Overall this is neutral for Fed interest rates.
(EvercoreISI charts)
November 20, 2025 at 3:22 PM
US Sept payrolls +119k, >exp but payrolls revised down by 33k for months, hrs wkd were flat, unemployment rose unexpectedly to 4.4% & wages growth was unchanged at 3.8%yoy. And the trend in payroll grth is down.
Overall this is neutral for Fed interest rates.
(EvercoreISI charts)
Overall this is neutral for Fed interest rates.
(EvercoreISI charts)
Nvidia shares up around 5% in after hours trading and US S&P 500 share futures +0.8% as Nvidia beats on earnings, sales and guidance.
(Bloomberg chart)
(Bloomberg chart)
November 19, 2025 at 11:33 PM
Nvidia shares up around 5% in after hours trading and US S&P 500 share futures +0.8% as Nvidia beats on earnings, sales and guidance.
(Bloomberg chart)
(Bloomberg chart)
Eurozone shares +0.1%
US shares +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.6%. Nvidia +4% in late trading as Dec qtr sales guidance beats
US 10 yr yld +2bp to 4.13%
Oil -2.1% to $59.5
Gold +0.1% to $4073.4
Iron ore +0.6% to $104.6
Bitcoin $89.7
ASX futures +0.6%
$A 0.6466 with $US +0.5%
US shares +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.6%. Nvidia +4% in late trading as Dec qtr sales guidance beats
US 10 yr yld +2bp to 4.13%
Oil -2.1% to $59.5
Gold +0.1% to $4073.4
Iron ore +0.6% to $104.6
Bitcoin $89.7
ASX futures +0.6%
$A 0.6466 with $US +0.5%
November 19, 2025 at 9:29 PM
Eurozone shares +0.1%
US shares +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.6%. Nvidia +4% in late trading as Dec qtr sales guidance beats
US 10 yr yld +2bp to 4.13%
Oil -2.1% to $59.5
Gold +0.1% to $4073.4
Iron ore +0.6% to $104.6
Bitcoin $89.7
ASX futures +0.6%
$A 0.6466 with $US +0.5%
US shares +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.6%. Nvidia +4% in late trading as Dec qtr sales guidance beats
US 10 yr yld +2bp to 4.13%
Oil -2.1% to $59.5
Gold +0.1% to $4073.4
Iron ore +0.6% to $104.6
Bitcoin $89.7
ASX futures +0.6%
$A 0.6466 with $US +0.5%
Fed mins highlight divided Fed with “many” officials thinking it will be appropriate to hold Dec against “several” who see a cut. Oct jobs data (unemp & payrolls) to be added to Nov & not released to Dec 16 add to uncertainty, but fall in mkt prob of Dec cut to 30% look overdone
November 19, 2025 at 9:03 PM
Fed mins highlight divided Fed with “many” officials thinking it will be appropriate to hold Dec against “several” who see a cut. Oct jobs data (unemp & payrolls) to be added to Nov & not released to Dec 16 add to uncertainty, but fall in mkt prob of Dec cut to 30% look overdone
Australian real wages growth slowed to a crawl last quarter and real wages are still down 6% on 5 years ago (with prices up 23% since December 2020 but wages up just 17%).
Our wages leading indicator still points to a further slowing in wages growth ahead.
Our wages leading indicator still points to a further slowing in wages growth ahead.
November 19, 2025 at 2:33 AM
Australian real wages growth slowed to a crawl last quarter and real wages are still down 6% on 5 years ago (with prices up 23% since December 2020 but wages up just 17%).
Our wages leading indicator still points to a further slowing in wages growth ahead.
Our wages leading indicator still points to a further slowing in wages growth ahead.
Australian wages growth is strongest in utilities, public admin and health and weakest in finance and insurance.
(ABS charts)
(ABS charts)
November 19, 2025 at 1:49 AM
Australian wages growth is strongest in utilities, public admin and health and weakest in finance and insurance.
(ABS charts)
(ABS charts)
..the % of workers seeing a wage rise of 4% or more continues to fall.
Stable wages grth at 3.4%y is consistent with the jobs mkt being balanced, not tight.
Slowing priv wages grth (more important for infl) leaves the door open for another rate cut but the RBA wont be hurrying
Stable wages grth at 3.4%y is consistent with the jobs mkt being balanced, not tight.
Slowing priv wages grth (more important for infl) leaves the door open for another rate cut but the RBA wont be hurrying
November 19, 2025 at 1:47 AM
..the % of workers seeing a wage rise of 4% or more continues to fall.
Stable wages grth at 3.4%y is consistent with the jobs mkt being balanced, not tight.
Slowing priv wages grth (more important for infl) leaves the door open for another rate cut but the RBA wont be hurrying
Stable wages grth at 3.4%y is consistent with the jobs mkt being balanced, not tight.
Slowing priv wages grth (more important for infl) leaves the door open for another rate cut but the RBA wont be hurrying
Aust Sept qtr wages grth flat at 0.8%q/3.4%y (in line with RBA & mkt). The details were on the soft side tho with public sector wages grth elevated at 3.8%yoy but private wages grth slowing to 3.2%yoy & private workers seeing a lower avg rise than a yr ago (3.6% v 3.9% yr ago)..
November 19, 2025 at 1:39 AM
Aust Sept qtr wages grth flat at 0.8%q/3.4%y (in line with RBA & mkt). The details were on the soft side tho with public sector wages grth elevated at 3.8%yoy but private wages grth slowing to 3.2%yoy & private workers seeing a lower avg rise than a yr ago (3.6% v 3.9% yr ago)..
Eurozone shares -1.9%
US shares -0.8%, Nasdaq -1.2% ahead of Nvidia results
US 10 yr yld -2bp to 4.11%
Oil +1.7% to $60.7
Gold +0.6% to $4067.3
Iron ore -0.3% to $104.05
Bitcoin $62.8k
ASX futures -0.2%
$A 0.6504 with $US index flat
US shares -0.8%, Nasdaq -1.2% ahead of Nvidia results
US 10 yr yld -2bp to 4.11%
Oil +1.7% to $60.7
Gold +0.6% to $4067.3
Iron ore -0.3% to $104.05
Bitcoin $62.8k
ASX futures -0.2%
$A 0.6504 with $US index flat
November 18, 2025 at 10:19 PM
Eurozone shares -1.9%
US shares -0.8%, Nasdaq -1.2% ahead of Nvidia results
US 10 yr yld -2bp to 4.11%
Oil +1.7% to $60.7
Gold +0.6% to $4067.3
Iron ore -0.3% to $104.05
Bitcoin $62.8k
ASX futures -0.2%
$A 0.6504 with $US index flat
US shares -0.8%, Nasdaq -1.2% ahead of Nvidia results
US 10 yr yld -2bp to 4.11%
Oil +1.7% to $60.7
Gold +0.6% to $4067.3
Iron ore -0.3% to $104.05
Bitcoin $62.8k
ASX futures -0.2%
$A 0.6504 with $US index flat
RBA Minutes reiterated its cautious stance: higher infl could mean less capacity in the econ, the labour mkt is a little tight & theres uncertainty about how restrictive policy is. The RBA discussed scenarios for further easing & rates on hold but the hurdle for another cut is hi
November 18, 2025 at 2:53 AM
RBA Minutes reiterated its cautious stance: higher infl could mean less capacity in the econ, the labour mkt is a little tight & theres uncertainty about how restrictive policy is. The RBA discussed scenarios for further easing & rates on hold but the hurdle for another cut is hi
Eurozone shares -0.9%
US shares -0.9%, Nas -0.8% ahead of Nvidia & payrolls. Fed’s Waller & Jefferson dovish
US 10 yr yld -2bp to 4.13%
Oil -0.3% to $59.7
Gold -1% to $4043
Iron ore +0.9% to $104.4
Bitcoin $91.6k..down with shares
ASX futures -0.6%
$A 0.649 with $US +0.3%
US shares -0.9%, Nas -0.8% ahead of Nvidia & payrolls. Fed’s Waller & Jefferson dovish
US 10 yr yld -2bp to 4.13%
Oil -0.3% to $59.7
Gold -1% to $4043
Iron ore +0.9% to $104.4
Bitcoin $91.6k..down with shares
ASX futures -0.6%
$A 0.649 with $US +0.3%
November 17, 2025 at 9:47 PM
Eurozone shares -0.9%
US shares -0.9%, Nas -0.8% ahead of Nvidia & payrolls. Fed’s Waller & Jefferson dovish
US 10 yr yld -2bp to 4.13%
Oil -0.3% to $59.7
Gold -1% to $4043
Iron ore +0.9% to $104.4
Bitcoin $91.6k..down with shares
ASX futures -0.6%
$A 0.649 with $US +0.3%
US shares -0.9%, Nas -0.8% ahead of Nvidia & payrolls. Fed’s Waller & Jefferson dovish
US 10 yr yld -2bp to 4.13%
Oil -0.3% to $59.7
Gold -1% to $4043
Iron ore +0.9% to $104.4
Bitcoin $91.6k..down with shares
ASX futures -0.6%
$A 0.649 with $US +0.3%
Cotality home price data Nov month to date
Syd +0.5% (=0.8% at mthly rate)
Mel +0.2%
Bri +0.9%
Ade +0.8%
Per +1.2%
5 city av +0.6% (=1.1% at mthly rate)
Property price growth remains strong so far this mth despite talk rates may have bottomed with 5% deposit scheme likely helping
Syd +0.5% (=0.8% at mthly rate)
Mel +0.2%
Bri +0.9%
Ade +0.8%
Per +1.2%
5 city av +0.6% (=1.1% at mthly rate)
Property price growth remains strong so far this mth despite talk rates may have bottomed with 5% deposit scheme likely helping
November 17, 2025 at 1:31 AM
Cotality home price data Nov month to date
Syd +0.5% (=0.8% at mthly rate)
Mel +0.2%
Bri +0.9%
Ade +0.8%
Per +1.2%
5 city av +0.6% (=1.1% at mthly rate)
Property price growth remains strong so far this mth despite talk rates may have bottomed with 5% deposit scheme likely helping
Syd +0.5% (=0.8% at mthly rate)
Mel +0.2%
Bri +0.9%
Ade +0.8%
Per +1.2%
5 city av +0.6% (=1.1% at mthly rate)
Property price growth remains strong so far this mth despite talk rates may have bottomed with 5% deposit scheme likely helping
Prelim Domain auction clearances
Syd 67%=final ~66%,Nov avg 60
Mel 66%=final ~63%,Nov avg 61
Clearances r continuing to slow reflecting talk of less rate cuts & rising listings but looks partly seasonal. Support remains from 3 rate cuts this yr & the low deposit scheme.
#ausecon
Syd 67%=final ~66%,Nov avg 60
Mel 66%=final ~63%,Nov avg 61
Clearances r continuing to slow reflecting talk of less rate cuts & rising listings but looks partly seasonal. Support remains from 3 rate cuts this yr & the low deposit scheme.
#ausecon
November 15, 2025 at 7:31 AM
Prelim Domain auction clearances
Syd 67%=final ~66%,Nov avg 60
Mel 66%=final ~63%,Nov avg 61
Clearances r continuing to slow reflecting talk of less rate cuts & rising listings but looks partly seasonal. Support remains from 3 rate cuts this yr & the low deposit scheme.
#ausecon
Syd 67%=final ~66%,Nov avg 60
Mel 66%=final ~63%,Nov avg 61
Clearances r continuing to slow reflecting talk of less rate cuts & rising listings but looks partly seasonal. Support remains from 3 rate cuts this yr & the low deposit scheme.
#ausecon
Trump now cutting tariffs as the “cost of living” is back in focus after election losses. So much for the argument that foreigners pay the tariffs & there is no impact on prices for Americans!
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Trump Set to Cut Tariffs on Beef, Tomatoes as Prices Vex Voters
President Donald Trump issued an order on Friday reducing tariffs on beef, tomatoes, coffee and bananas, a move aimed at lowering costs on groceries as the administration faces pressure from voters to...
www.bloomberg.com
November 14, 2025 at 9:58 PM
Trump now cutting tariffs as the “cost of living” is back in focus after election losses. So much for the argument that foreigners pay the tariffs & there is no impact on prices for Americans!
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Eurozone shares -0.9% (+2.2%)
US shares -0.05%(+0.1% wk) up from -1.3% with 50 day av holding so far.Nas +0.1%
US 10 yr yld +3bp to 4.15%
Oil +2.1% to $59.9
Gold -2.1% to $4084
Iron ore -0.2% to $103.5
Bitcoin $94.7k as risk off tone weighs
ASX futures -0.2%
$A 0.6537 w $US +0.1%
US shares -0.05%(+0.1% wk) up from -1.3% with 50 day av holding so far.Nas +0.1%
US 10 yr yld +3bp to 4.15%
Oil +2.1% to $59.9
Gold -2.1% to $4084
Iron ore -0.2% to $103.5
Bitcoin $94.7k as risk off tone weighs
ASX futures -0.2%
$A 0.6537 w $US +0.1%
November 14, 2025 at 9:52 PM
Eurozone shares -0.9% (+2.2%)
US shares -0.05%(+0.1% wk) up from -1.3% with 50 day av holding so far.Nas +0.1%
US 10 yr yld +3bp to 4.15%
Oil +2.1% to $59.9
Gold -2.1% to $4084
Iron ore -0.2% to $103.5
Bitcoin $94.7k as risk off tone weighs
ASX futures -0.2%
$A 0.6537 w $US +0.1%
US shares -0.05%(+0.1% wk) up from -1.3% with 50 day av holding so far.Nas +0.1%
US 10 yr yld +3bp to 4.15%
Oil +2.1% to $59.9
Gold -2.1% to $4084
Iron ore -0.2% to $103.5
Bitcoin $94.7k as risk off tone weighs
ASX futures -0.2%
$A 0.6537 w $US +0.1%
Weekly economic and market update - shares wobble on rates; positives & negatives for shares; $A looking stronger; weak Chinese data; we still expect one more RBA rate cut next year
www.amp.com.au/resources/in...
www.amp.com.au/resources/in...
Weekly market update - 14-11-2025 - AMP
Global shares mostly rose over the last week but had a messy ride. While US shares rose helped by the end of the Government shutdown the gain was almost erased later in the week as hawkish commentary ...
www.amp.com.au
November 14, 2025 at 7:07 AM
Weekly economic and market update - shares wobble on rates; positives & negatives for shares; $A looking stronger; weak Chinese data; we still expect one more RBA rate cut next year
www.amp.com.au/resources/in...
www.amp.com.au/resources/in...
China Oct activity data slowed further to 4.9%yoy for IP, 2.9% for retail sales with investment -1.7% as property inv fell 14.7%. Home prices & prop sales continue to fall.
GDP grth this yr is probably still on track for just below 5% but incremental policy stimulus is still likely
(Bloomberg table)
GDP grth this yr is probably still on track for just below 5% but incremental policy stimulus is still likely
(Bloomberg table)
November 14, 2025 at 2:49 AM
China Oct activity data slowed further to 4.9%yoy for IP, 2.9% for retail sales with investment -1.7% as property inv fell 14.7%. Home prices & prop sales continue to fall.
GDP grth this yr is probably still on track for just below 5% but incremental policy stimulus is still likely
(Bloomberg table)
GDP grth this yr is probably still on track for just below 5% but incremental policy stimulus is still likely
(Bloomberg table)