Shane Oliver
@shaneoliver.bsky.social
Chief Economist & Head of Inv Strategy, AMP. Into boats, pop music, nature, economics, investing, my family…& being nice. I don’t solicit funds or spruik trading schemes.
Eurozone shares -0.2%
US shares flat,Nas -0.2%
US 10 yr yld +3bp to 4.17%…as stronger than exp jobs saw Fed rate cut expectations pared
Oil +0.7% to $64.6..ongoing Iran tensions
Gold +1.1% to $5084.4
Iron ore +0.2% to $100.8
Bitcoin $67.5k
ASX futures -0.02%
#$A 0.7126 w #$US flat
US shares flat,Nas -0.2%
US 10 yr yld +3bp to 4.17%…as stronger than exp jobs saw Fed rate cut expectations pared
Oil +0.7% to $64.6..ongoing Iran tensions
Gold +1.1% to $5084.4
Iron ore +0.2% to $100.8
Bitcoin $67.5k
ASX futures -0.02%
#$A 0.7126 w #$US flat
February 11, 2026 at 10:48 PM
The delayed US Jan job report revised down the level of payrolls -862k last yr in its annual revision (which was largely expected) but Jan payrolls +130k, 3 mth avg +73k, unemp -0.1% to 4.3%, wages +3.7%yoy…leaves Fed on hold to assess if pick up is sustained.
EvercoreISI charts
EvercoreISI charts
February 11, 2026 at 8:48 PM
The delayed US Jan job report revised down the level of payrolls -862k last yr in its annual revision (which was largely expected) but Jan payrolls +130k, 3 mth avg +73k, unemp -0.1% to 4.3%, wages +3.7%yoy…leaves Fed on hold to assess if pick up is sustained.
EvercoreISI charts
EvercoreISI charts
Housing finance for first home buyers rose 6.8%qoq in the Dec qtr helped by the expanded 5% low deposit scheme which drove a small rise in their share of total housing loans (chart corrected from previous tweet) and a sharp increase in the average FHB loan sizes.
February 11, 2026 at 2:31 AM
Housing finance for first home buyers rose 6.8%qoq in the Dec qtr helped by the expanded 5% low deposit scheme which drove a small rise in their share of total housing loans (chart corrected from previous tweet) and a sharp increase in the average FHB loan sizes.
Aust Dec qtr housing finance +9.5%qoq with owner occupiers +10.6%q & investors +7.9%q reflecting the strength in home prices.
New home loan sizes continue to rise with home prices.
The investor share of total finance is continuing to trend up with the FHB share trending down
New home loan sizes continue to rise with home prices.
The investor share of total finance is continuing to trend up with the FHB share trending down
February 11, 2026 at 1:13 AM
Aust Dec qtr housing finance +9.5%qoq with owner occupiers +10.6%q & investors +7.9%q reflecting the strength in home prices.
New home loan sizes continue to rise with home prices.
The investor share of total finance is continuing to trend up with the FHB share trending down
New home loan sizes continue to rise with home prices.
The investor share of total finance is continuing to trend up with the FHB share trending down
US retail sales flat in Dec, ex auto & gas also flat with cold weather but cons spending likely rose at a solid 2.7% pace in Dec qtr
Small biz optimism little changed at 99.3
Dec qtr ECI softer than exp at +0.7%qoq.3,4%yoy with quits pointing to further slowing
EvercoreISI charts
Small biz optimism little changed at 99.3
Dec qtr ECI softer than exp at +0.7%qoq.3,4%yoy with quits pointing to further slowing
EvercoreISI charts
February 10, 2026 at 8:50 PM
US retail sales flat in Dec, ex auto & gas also flat with cold weather but cons spending likely rose at a solid 2.7% pace in Dec qtr
Small biz optimism little changed at 99.3
Dec qtr ECI softer than exp at +0.7%qoq.3,4%yoy with quits pointing to further slowing
EvercoreISI charts
Small biz optimism little changed at 99.3
Dec qtr ECI softer than exp at +0.7%qoq.3,4%yoy with quits pointing to further slowing
EvercoreISI charts
The Jan NAB business survey showed a slight fall in conditions and a slight rise in confidence.
Labour cost pressures fell (=>lower services infl?), purchase costs fell & final prices fell to lowest since pandemic. Adds to confidence the spike in CPI inflation may prove temporary
Labour cost pressures fell (=>lower services infl?), purchase costs fell & final prices fell to lowest since pandemic. Adds to confidence the spike in CPI inflation may prove temporary
February 10, 2026 at 2:56 AM
The Jan NAB business survey showed a slight fall in conditions and a slight rise in confidence.
Labour cost pressures fell (=>lower services infl?), purchase costs fell & final prices fell to lowest since pandemic. Adds to confidence the spike in CPI inflation may prove temporary
Labour cost pressures fell (=>lower services infl?), purchase costs fell & final prices fell to lowest since pandemic. Adds to confidence the spike in CPI inflation may prove temporary
The Westpac/MI survey showed high and still rising home price expectations but a further fall back in perceptions as to whether now is a good time to”time to buy a dwelling”. A permanent gap between the two seems to have opened up.
February 10, 2026 at 2:50 AM
The Westpac/MI survey showed high and still rising home price expectations but a further fall back in perceptions as to whether now is a good time to”time to buy a dwelling”. A permanent gap between the two seems to have opened up.
Aust Westpac/MI consumer confidence -2.6pts to a weak 90.5 in Feb with all the rise from last yrs rate cut now reversed. The ANZ/Roy Morgan confidence index is weaker.
Most components weakened.
Confidence fell for all housing groups but is weakest for mortgage holders & renters,
Most components weakened.
Confidence fell for all housing groups but is weakest for mortgage holders & renters,
February 10, 2026 at 2:48 AM
Aust Westpac/MI consumer confidence -2.6pts to a weak 90.5 in Feb with all the rise from last yrs rate cut now reversed. The ANZ/Roy Morgan confidence index is weaker.
Most components weakened.
Confidence fell for all housing groups but is weakest for mortgage holders & renters,
Most components weakened.
Confidence fell for all housing groups but is weakest for mortgage holders & renters,
Aust Dec household spending -0.4%m after events & discounting boosted Oct & Nov
Dec qtr was +0.9%qoq in real terms
Clothing, furnishings, culture & hotels saw falls after event & sales boosts in Oct & Nov
Suggests strong Q4 consumption, but rate hikes may slow it ahead
(ABS charts)
Dec qtr was +0.9%qoq in real terms
Clothing, furnishings, culture & hotels saw falls after event & sales boosts in Oct & Nov
Suggests strong Q4 consumption, but rate hikes may slow it ahead
(ABS charts)
February 9, 2026 at 2:16 AM
Aust Dec household spending -0.4%m after events & discounting boosted Oct & Nov
Dec qtr was +0.9%qoq in real terms
Clothing, furnishings, culture & hotels saw falls after event & sales boosts in Oct & Nov
Suggests strong Q4 consumption, but rate hikes may slow it ahead
(ABS charts)
Dec qtr was +0.9%qoq in real terms
Clothing, furnishings, culture & hotels saw falls after event & sales boosts in Oct & Nov
Suggests strong Q4 consumption, but rate hikes may slow it ahead
(ABS charts)
Prelim Domain auction clearances
Syd 78%=final ~77%,Feb avg 67
Mel 66%=final ~63%,Feb avg 65
Clearances starting the yr on a strong note in Syd, less so in Melb. Rate hikes & expectations for more to come will be a dampener but housing shortage will support, esp in Syd.
#ausecon
Syd 78%=final ~77%,Feb avg 67
Mel 66%=final ~63%,Feb avg 65
Clearances starting the yr on a strong note in Syd, less so in Melb. Rate hikes & expectations for more to come will be a dampener but housing shortage will support, esp in Syd.
#ausecon
February 7, 2026 at 1:15 PM
Prelim Domain auction clearances
Syd 78%=final ~77%,Feb avg 67
Mel 66%=final ~63%,Feb avg 65
Clearances starting the yr on a strong note in Syd, less so in Melb. Rate hikes & expectations for more to come will be a dampener but housing shortage will support, esp in Syd.
#ausecon
Syd 78%=final ~77%,Feb avg 67
Mel 66%=final ~63%,Feb avg 65
Clearances starting the yr on a strong note in Syd, less so in Melb. Rate hikes & expectations for more to come will be a dampener but housing shortage will support, esp in Syd.
#ausecon
Eurozone shares +0.9% (+0.9% wk)
US shares +2% (-0.1% wk), Nasdaq +2.2%…as dip buying kicked in
US 10 yr yld +3bp to 4.21%
Oil +0.4% to $65.3
Gold +3.9% to $4964
Iron ore -1.2% to $99.6
Bitcoin +11% to $70.6k..up with shares
ASX futures +1.2%
#$A 0.702 with #$US index -0.2%
(Bloomberg chart)
US shares +2% (-0.1% wk), Nasdaq +2.2%…as dip buying kicked in
US 10 yr yld +3bp to 4.21%
Oil +0.4% to $65.3
Gold +3.9% to $4964
Iron ore -1.2% to $99.6
Bitcoin +11% to $70.6k..up with shares
ASX futures +1.2%
#$A 0.702 with #$US index -0.2%
(Bloomberg chart)
February 6, 2026 at 10:24 PM
Mixed US job reports
Job openings down in Dec, hiring rate still lo & Challenger job cuts spiked in Jan
But quits rate up from low,layoffs rate remained low & while jobless claims rose they remain lo
Messy picture for Fed keeping further rate cuts alive
(EvercoreISI ISI charts)
Job openings down in Dec, hiring rate still lo & Challenger job cuts spiked in Jan
But quits rate up from low,layoffs rate remained low & while jobless claims rose they remain lo
Messy picture for Fed keeping further rate cuts alive
(EvercoreISI ISI charts)
February 5, 2026 at 9:32 PM
Mixed US job reports
Job openings down in Dec, hiring rate still lo & Challenger job cuts spiked in Jan
But quits rate up from low,layoffs rate remained low & while jobless claims rose they remain lo
Messy picture for Fed keeping further rate cuts alive
(EvercoreISI ISI charts)
Job openings down in Dec, hiring rate still lo & Challenger job cuts spiked in Jan
But quits rate up from low,layoffs rate remained low & while jobless claims rose they remain lo
Messy picture for Fed keeping further rate cuts alive
(EvercoreISI ISI charts)
Eurozone shares -0.8%
US shares -1.2%, Nas -1.6%..concerns re tech valuations, impact of AI on other tech & soft jobs data
US 10 yr yld -8bp to 4.19%
Oil -1.8% to $63
Gold -2.5% to $4825
Iron ore -0.7% to $100.6
Bitcoin $64.4k..down w shares
ASX futures -1.1%
#$A 0.694 w #$US +0.3%
US shares -1.2%, Nas -1.6%..concerns re tech valuations, impact of AI on other tech & soft jobs data
US 10 yr yld -8bp to 4.19%
Oil -1.8% to $63
Gold -2.5% to $4825
Iron ore -0.7% to $100.6
Bitcoin $64.4k..down w shares
ASX futures -1.1%
#$A 0.694 w #$US +0.3%
February 5, 2026 at 9:14 PM
Fed Gov spending is projected to grow 8.2% in 2025-26 after 7 & 8% grth in the last 2 fin yrs (MYEFO). So Fed spending grth is contributing to demand grth & is settling at a high % of GDP. To ease capacity constraints & pressure on that RBA & int rates it needs to be cut to more normal levels.
February 5, 2026 at 3:43 AM
Fed Gov spending is projected to grow 8.2% in 2025-26 after 7 & 8% grth in the last 2 fin yrs (MYEFO). So Fed spending grth is contributing to demand grth & is settling at a high % of GDP. To ease capacity constraints & pressure on that RBA & int rates it needs to be cut to more normal levels.
The RBA’s forecasts for slowing then falling dwelling investment to 2028 imply it does not see the Housing Accord target for 240k homes a year being met - as it would require a rise in dwelling investment growth (unless there are a lot of tiny homes in the mix!)
(RBA SOMP p56)
(RBA SOMP p56)
February 4, 2026 at 11:46 PM
The RBA’s forecasts for slowing then falling dwelling investment to 2028 imply it does not see the Housing Accord target for 240k homes a year being met - as it would require a rise in dwelling investment growth (unless there are a lot of tiny homes in the mix!)
(RBA SOMP p56)
(RBA SOMP p56)
Eurozone shares -0.4%
US shares -0.5%, Nas -1.5% as software stocks under pressure on fears re the impact of AI on software demand
US 10 yr yld +1bp tp 4.28%
Oil +0.7% to $64.4
Gold +0.2% to $4950.1
Iron ore -1.5% to $101.35
Bitcoin $73.2k
ASX futures -0.4%
#$A 0.6996 w #$US +0.3%
US shares -0.5%, Nas -1.5% as software stocks under pressure on fears re the impact of AI on software demand
US 10 yr yld +1bp tp 4.28%
Oil +0.7% to $64.4
Gold +0.2% to $4950.1
Iron ore -1.5% to $101.35
Bitcoin $73.2k
ASX futures -0.4%
#$A 0.6996 w #$US +0.3%
February 4, 2026 at 9:13 PM
Eurozone shares -0.2%
US shares -0.8%, Nasdaq -1.4% with geo tensions as US shoots down Iran drone heading toward aircraft carrier
US 10 yr yld -1bp to 4.27%
Oil +2.8% to $63.9
Gold +5.8% to $4939.1
Iron ore +0.2% to $102.85
Bitcoin $76.2k
ASX futures -0.2%
#$A 0.7022 w #$US -0.3%
US shares -0.8%, Nasdaq -1.4% with geo tensions as US shoots down Iran drone heading toward aircraft carrier
US 10 yr yld -1bp to 4.27%
Oil +2.8% to $63.9
Gold +5.8% to $4939.1
Iron ore +0.2% to $102.85
Bitcoin $76.2k
ASX futures -0.2%
#$A 0.7022 w #$US -0.3%
February 3, 2026 at 9:59 PM
RBA revised up its near term growth & infl forecasts & unemp revised down.
Now seeing inflation higher longer …despite a higher #$A & cash rate assumption suggesting it’s effectively endorsing mkt exps for more hikes.
That said it was similar but with rate cuts back in Aug!
Now seeing inflation higher longer …despite a higher #$A & cash rate assumption suggesting it’s effectively endorsing mkt exps for more hikes.
That said it was similar but with rate cuts back in Aug!
February 3, 2026 at 4:31 AM
RBA revised up its near term growth & infl forecasts & unemp revised down.
Now seeing inflation higher longer …despite a higher #$A & cash rate assumption suggesting it’s effectively endorsing mkt exps for more hikes.
That said it was similar but with rate cuts back in Aug!
Now seeing inflation higher longer …despite a higher #$A & cash rate assumption suggesting it’s effectively endorsing mkt exps for more hikes.
That said it was similar but with rate cuts back in Aug!
RBA +0.25% to 3.85% as widely expected. (We had thought it was ~50/50, but were wrong in our assessment RBA would hold)
RBA noted material pick up in inflation in second half 2025 & noted stronger than expected private demand, capacity pressure & labour mkt being a little tight.
RBA noted material pick up in inflation in second half 2025 & noted stronger than expected private demand, capacity pressure & labour mkt being a little tight.
February 3, 2026 at 3:52 AM
RBA +0.25% to 3.85% as widely expected. (We had thought it was ~50/50, but were wrong in our assessment RBA would hold)
RBA noted material pick up in inflation in second half 2025 & noted stronger than expected private demand, capacity pressure & labour mkt being a little tight.
RBA noted material pick up in inflation in second half 2025 & noted stronger than expected private demand, capacity pressure & labour mkt being a little tight.
Aust home building approvals -15%mom, driven by -32% in volatile unit approvals.
The trend is up (consistent with new home sales) and is running around 200k a yr pointing to some pick up in completions.
But it’s still well below the Housing Accord target for 240k homes a year.
The trend is up (consistent with new home sales) and is running around 200k a yr pointing to some pick up in completions.
But it’s still well below the Housing Accord target for 240k homes a year.
February 3, 2026 at 2:07 AM
Aust home building approvals -15%mom, driven by -32% in volatile unit approvals.
The trend is up (consistent with new home sales) and is running around 200k a yr pointing to some pick up in completions.
But it’s still well below the Housing Accord target for 240k homes a year.
The trend is up (consistent with new home sales) and is running around 200k a yr pointing to some pick up in completions.
But it’s still well below the Housing Accord target for 240k homes a year.