Stephen Koukoulas
@thekouk.bsky.social
Restrictive interest rates are obsolete: A 50bp rate cut is urgently needed next week.
If the RBA does not cut 50 next week, it will be playing a very risky game with the jobs of tens of thousands of people the stakes in its economic modelling zealotry
www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTYo...
If the RBA does not cut 50 next week, it will be playing a very risky game with the jobs of tens of thousands of people the stakes in its economic modelling zealotry
www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTYo...
Restrictive interest rates are obsolete: A 50 basis point rate cut is urgently needed next week
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
www.youtube.com
May 12, 2025 at 12:02 AM
Restrictive interest rates are obsolete: A 50bp rate cut is urgently needed next week.
If the RBA does not cut 50 next week, it will be playing a very risky game with the jobs of tens of thousands of people the stakes in its economic modelling zealotry
www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTYo...
If the RBA does not cut 50 next week, it will be playing a very risky game with the jobs of tens of thousands of people the stakes in its economic modelling zealotry
www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTYo...
Federal election betting
Individual electorates - who is favourite
Labor 74
Coalition 64
All others 12
Note: A lot of seats are $1.60/$2.40 ish so effectively line ball
Individual electorates - who is favourite
Labor 74
Coalition 64
All others 12
Note: A lot of seats are $1.60/$2.40 ish so effectively line ball
April 13, 2025 at 8:53 AM
Federal election betting
Individual electorates - who is favourite
Labor 74
Coalition 64
All others 12
Note: A lot of seats are $1.60/$2.40 ish so effectively line ball
Individual electorates - who is favourite
Labor 74
Coalition 64
All others 12
Note: A lot of seats are $1.60/$2.40 ish so effectively line ball
What?
The Libs promising a minister for Western Sydney but no minister for Tasmania; western Melbourne, rural Queensland, Adelaide suburbs, northern Perth or the Northern Territory?
The forgotten 25 million Australians say "thanks for nothing"
The Libs promising a minister for Western Sydney but no minister for Tasmania; western Melbourne, rural Queensland, Adelaide suburbs, northern Perth or the Northern Territory?
The forgotten 25 million Australians say "thanks for nothing"
April 13, 2025 at 8:51 AM
What?
The Libs promising a minister for Western Sydney but no minister for Tasmania; western Melbourne, rural Queensland, Adelaide suburbs, northern Perth or the Northern Territory?
The forgotten 25 million Australians say "thanks for nothing"
The Libs promising a minister for Western Sydney but no minister for Tasmania; western Melbourne, rural Queensland, Adelaide suburbs, northern Perth or the Northern Territory?
The forgotten 25 million Australians say "thanks for nothing"
My latest:
Boomer's tip: Living in Australia in 2025 'okay' for young people.
In many important ways – not just financial – Australia is as great a place to live for young people in 2025 as it was for youth "back in the day"
independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...
Boomer's tip: Living in Australia in 2025 'okay' for young people.
In many important ways – not just financial – Australia is as great a place to live for young people in 2025 as it was for youth "back in the day"
independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...
Boomer's tip: Living in Australia in 2025 'okay' for young people
In many important ways – not just financial – Australia is as great a place to live for young people in 2025 as it was for youth "back in the day".
independentaustralia.net
February 17, 2025 at 9:59 PM
My latest:
Boomer's tip: Living in Australia in 2025 'okay' for young people.
In many important ways – not just financial – Australia is as great a place to live for young people in 2025 as it was for youth "back in the day"
independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...
Boomer's tip: Living in Australia in 2025 'okay' for young people.
In many important ways – not just financial – Australia is as great a place to live for young people in 2025 as it was for youth "back in the day"
independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...
My latest:
The miraculous Australian economy is the envy of the world
independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...
The miraculous Australian economy is the envy of the world
independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...
The miraculous Australian economy is the envy of the world
Despite frequent moaning and groaning about the state of the economy, the hard data on a range of indicators are some of the best in the world.
independentaustralia.net
February 4, 2025 at 3:42 AM
My latest:
The miraculous Australian economy is the envy of the world
independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...
The miraculous Australian economy is the envy of the world
independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...
Household spending is ticking up after 2 years of tocking down.
The lift into late 2024 is moderate helped by income tax cuts, rising real wages, rising wealth & expected RBA rate cuts.
Not much for the RBA: 18 Feb interest rate cut is all but a done deal.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2Lq...
The lift into late 2024 is moderate helped by income tax cuts, rising real wages, rising wealth & expected RBA rate cuts.
Not much for the RBA: 18 Feb interest rate cut is all but a done deal.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2Lq...
Household spending is ticking up after two years of tocking down
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
www.youtube.com
February 4, 2025 at 12:55 AM
Household spending is ticking up after 2 years of tocking down.
The lift into late 2024 is moderate helped by income tax cuts, rising real wages, rising wealth & expected RBA rate cuts.
Not much for the RBA: 18 Feb interest rate cut is all but a done deal.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2Lq...
The lift into late 2024 is moderate helped by income tax cuts, rising real wages, rising wealth & expected RBA rate cuts.
Not much for the RBA: 18 Feb interest rate cut is all but a done deal.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2Lq...
A smorgasbord of data & like all such feasts, not everything appeals to everyone.
Flat job ads & house prices.
Building approvals - up for 10months!
Retail trade - flat monthly; a decent quarterly rise.
MI inflation at 2.3% - another on target result.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=R_l9...
Flat job ads & house prices.
Building approvals - up for 10months!
Retail trade - flat monthly; a decent quarterly rise.
MI inflation at 2.3% - another on target result.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=R_l9...
A deluge of data - most of it flat: A tiny spark in retail sales & building approvals
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
www.youtube.com
February 3, 2025 at 3:04 AM
A smorgasbord of data & like all such feasts, not everything appeals to everyone.
Flat job ads & house prices.
Building approvals - up for 10months!
Retail trade - flat monthly; a decent quarterly rise.
MI inflation at 2.3% - another on target result.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=R_l9...
Flat job ads & house prices.
Building approvals - up for 10months!
Retail trade - flat monthly; a decent quarterly rise.
MI inflation at 2.3% - another on target result.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=R_l9...
Extraordinary what is happening in the US.
Trump is smashing the US economy. It will end very badly.
Wise investors I speak to are in the process of exiting / downsizing their US exposures.
Trump is smashing the US economy. It will end very badly.
Wise investors I speak to are in the process of exiting / downsizing their US exposures.
January 31, 2025 at 10:48 PM
Extraordinary what is happening in the US.
Trump is smashing the US economy. It will end very badly.
Wise investors I speak to are in the process of exiting / downsizing their US exposures.
Trump is smashing the US economy. It will end very badly.
Wise investors I speak to are in the process of exiting / downsizing their US exposures.
Federal election betting update - $$$ for Labor as rate cuts loom
A flow of money to Labor despite the polls going against it. It seems punters are looking at the low inflation data & near certainty of an interest rate cut - or two - before polling day.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWhw...
A flow of money to Labor despite the polls going against it. It seems punters are looking at the low inflation data & near certainty of an interest rate cut - or two - before polling day.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWhw...
Federal election betting update - $$$ for Labor as interest rate cuts loom
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
www.youtube.com
January 31, 2025 at 10:47 PM
Federal election betting update - $$$ for Labor as rate cuts loom
A flow of money to Labor despite the polls going against it. It seems punters are looking at the low inflation data & near certainty of an interest rate cut - or two - before polling day.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWhw...
A flow of money to Labor despite the polls going against it. It seems punters are looking at the low inflation data & near certainty of an interest rate cut - or two - before polling day.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWhw...
Inflation free-fall risks an overshoot below mid point of target.
Annual Trimmed Mean down to 2.7% - Yowzer!
RBA is WAY behind the curve with interest rate cuts - anyone for 50 basis points on 18 February?
25 bps looks a done deal - another on 1 April.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSFk...
Annual Trimmed Mean down to 2.7% - Yowzer!
RBA is WAY behind the curve with interest rate cuts - anyone for 50 basis points on 18 February?
25 bps looks a done deal - another on 1 April.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSFk...
Inflation free-falls to target - how the RBA overdone it with interest rates?
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
www.youtube.com
January 29, 2025 at 2:56 AM
Inflation free-fall risks an overshoot below mid point of target.
Annual Trimmed Mean down to 2.7% - Yowzer!
RBA is WAY behind the curve with interest rate cuts - anyone for 50 basis points on 18 February?
25 bps looks a done deal - another on 1 April.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSFk...
Annual Trimmed Mean down to 2.7% - Yowzer!
RBA is WAY behind the curve with interest rate cuts - anyone for 50 basis points on 18 February?
25 bps looks a done deal - another on 1 April.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSFk...
My latest:
Mortgage payers set for interest rate relief after RBA's 'embarrassingly wrong' call.
Using the monthly data, annual inflation came in at 2.5 per cent in December, with the trimmed mean measure was a stunningly low 2.7 per cent.
au.finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgag...
Mortgage payers set for interest rate relief after RBA's 'embarrassingly wrong' call.
Using the monthly data, annual inflation came in at 2.5 per cent in December, with the trimmed mean measure was a stunningly low 2.7 per cent.
au.finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgag...
Aussies set for relief after RBA's 'embarrassingly wrong' call: 'Save $385 a month'
Australians are crying out for mortgage relief, and the latest inflation data indicates one is on the way.
au.finance.yahoo.com
January 29, 2025 at 2:44 AM
My latest:
Mortgage payers set for interest rate relief after RBA's 'embarrassingly wrong' call.
Using the monthly data, annual inflation came in at 2.5 per cent in December, with the trimmed mean measure was a stunningly low 2.7 per cent.
au.finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgag...
Mortgage payers set for interest rate relief after RBA's 'embarrassingly wrong' call.
Using the monthly data, annual inflation came in at 2.5 per cent in December, with the trimmed mean measure was a stunningly low 2.7 per cent.
au.finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgag...
Federal Election Betting Update
Recent flows are to the Coalition who are now solid favourites.
Cost of living issues?
What about an interest rate cut or 2 before polling day?
Warning: Bet only what you can afford to lose: you win some you lose more.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=py18...
Recent flows are to the Coalition who are now solid favourites.
Cost of living issues?
What about an interest rate cut or 2 before polling day?
Warning: Bet only what you can afford to lose: you win some you lose more.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=py18...
Federal Election Betting Update - it's all the Coalition
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
www.youtube.com
January 24, 2025 at 9:59 PM
Federal Election Betting Update
Recent flows are to the Coalition who are now solid favourites.
Cost of living issues?
What about an interest rate cut or 2 before polling day?
Warning: Bet only what you can afford to lose: you win some you lose more.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=py18...
Recent flows are to the Coalition who are now solid favourites.
Cost of living issues?
What about an interest rate cut or 2 before polling day?
Warning: Bet only what you can afford to lose: you win some you lose more.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=py18...
House prices are continuing to fall - should we be worried?
Get set for a sharp improvement in housing affordability but a negative wealth effect as the cycle of weaker house prices continues into 2025.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQeb...
Get set for a sharp improvement in housing affordability but a negative wealth effect as the cycle of weaker house prices continues into 2025.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQeb...
House prices are continuing to fall - should we be worried?
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
www.youtube.com
January 19, 2025 at 11:38 PM
House prices are continuing to fall - should we be worried?
Get set for a sharp improvement in housing affordability but a negative wealth effect as the cycle of weaker house prices continues into 2025.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQeb...
Get set for a sharp improvement in housing affordability but a negative wealth effect as the cycle of weaker house prices continues into 2025.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQeb...
Unemployment rate holds 4.0%.
Welcome to the brave new world of the fabulous Australian economy.
RBA, Treasury & all of us need to keep testing estimates of NAIRU.
It's clearly not 5%, nor 4.5% & perhaps not even 4%. It could be, as some suggest, 3.5%.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=sq_w...
Welcome to the brave new world of the fabulous Australian economy.
RBA, Treasury & all of us need to keep testing estimates of NAIRU.
It's clearly not 5%, nor 4.5% & perhaps not even 4%. It could be, as some suggest, 3.5%.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=sq_w...
Unemployment rate holds at 4.0% - welcome to the brave new world of the fabulous Australian economy
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
www.youtube.com
January 16, 2025 at 1:04 AM
Unemployment rate holds 4.0%.
Welcome to the brave new world of the fabulous Australian economy.
RBA, Treasury & all of us need to keep testing estimates of NAIRU.
It's clearly not 5%, nor 4.5% & perhaps not even 4%. It could be, as some suggest, 3.5%.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=sq_w...
Welcome to the brave new world of the fabulous Australian economy.
RBA, Treasury & all of us need to keep testing estimates of NAIRU.
It's clearly not 5%, nor 4.5% & perhaps not even 4%. It could be, as some suggest, 3.5%.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=sq_w...
The CRB index of commodity prices is lifting - 15+ year high
Driven by price of food - milk, OJ, coffee, cocoa, tea, sunflower oil, barley, beef & eggs. Freight rates also up
Risk is global inflation pressures are up offsetting disinflation from elsewhere
www.youtube.com/watch?v=MD1U...
Driven by price of food - milk, OJ, coffee, cocoa, tea, sunflower oil, barley, beef & eggs. Freight rates also up
Risk is global inflation pressures are up offsetting disinflation from elsewhere
www.youtube.com/watch?v=MD1U...
Amber lights flashing on commodity prices, particularly food prices
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
www.youtube.com
January 14, 2025 at 9:34 PM
The CRB index of commodity prices is lifting - 15+ year high
Driven by price of food - milk, OJ, coffee, cocoa, tea, sunflower oil, barley, beef & eggs. Freight rates also up
Risk is global inflation pressures are up offsetting disinflation from elsewhere
www.youtube.com/watch?v=MD1U...
Driven by price of food - milk, OJ, coffee, cocoa, tea, sunflower oil, barley, beef & eggs. Freight rates also up
Risk is global inflation pressures are up offsetting disinflation from elsewhere
www.youtube.com/watch?v=MD1U...
A raft of 2nd, 3rd tier data confirming economic weakness is persisting.
Consumer sentiment dipped; job ads flat in recent months; house prices continuing to weaken, MI inflation at 2.6% y/y - in target band.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpLS...
Consumer sentiment dipped; job ads flat in recent months; house prices continuing to weaken, MI inflation at 2.6% y/y - in target band.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpLS...
A run of mid-tier data confirms a soggy economy
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
www.youtube.com
January 14, 2025 at 1:41 AM
A raft of 2nd, 3rd tier data confirming economic weakness is persisting.
Consumer sentiment dipped; job ads flat in recent months; house prices continuing to weaken, MI inflation at 2.6% y/y - in target band.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpLS...
Consumer sentiment dipped; job ads flat in recent months; house prices continuing to weaken, MI inflation at 2.6% y/y - in target band.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpLS...
Australian election betting update - Labor firm on interest rate cuts
Labor has shortened in betting markets but the Coalition remain favourites.
An interest rate cut before polling day?
Sustained low inflation which is easing cost of living concerns?
www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4lB...
Labor has shortened in betting markets but the Coalition remain favourites.
An interest rate cut before polling day?
Sustained low inflation which is easing cost of living concerns?
www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4lB...
Australian election betting update - Labor firm on interest rate cuts
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
www.youtube.com
January 11, 2025 at 12:13 AM
Australian election betting update - Labor firm on interest rate cuts
Labor has shortened in betting markets but the Coalition remain favourites.
An interest rate cut before polling day?
Sustained low inflation which is easing cost of living concerns?
www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4lB...
Labor has shortened in betting markets but the Coalition remain favourites.
An interest rate cut before polling day?
Sustained low inflation which is easing cost of living concerns?
www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4lB...
Household spending growth remains in the doldrums.
The Household Spending Indicator confirmed weakness rising just 0.4% in Nov.
Goods spending rose 0.9%; the positive Black Friday effect; services spending fell 0.1%.
All points to interest rate cuts.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=IrjX...
The Household Spending Indicator confirmed weakness rising just 0.4% in Nov.
Goods spending rose 0.9%; the positive Black Friday effect; services spending fell 0.1%.
All points to interest rate cuts.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=IrjX...
Household spending growth remains in the doldrums
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
www.youtube.com
January 10, 2025 at 1:11 AM
Household spending growth remains in the doldrums.
The Household Spending Indicator confirmed weakness rising just 0.4% in Nov.
Goods spending rose 0.9%; the positive Black Friday effect; services spending fell 0.1%.
All points to interest rate cuts.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=IrjX...
The Household Spending Indicator confirmed weakness rising just 0.4% in Nov.
Goods spending rose 0.9%; the positive Black Friday effect; services spending fell 0.1%.
All points to interest rate cuts.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=IrjX...
The weakness in house prices continues:
Price change first 10 days of January & over the last 3 months:
SYD 0.0% -1.3%
MEL -0.2% -1.8%
BRI +0.1% +1.0%
ADE +0.3% +2.1%
Per +0.3% +1.8%
5 CITIES 0.0% -0.4%
Price change first 10 days of January & over the last 3 months:
SYD 0.0% -1.3%
MEL -0.2% -1.8%
BRI +0.1% +1.0%
ADE +0.3% +2.1%
Per +0.3% +1.8%
5 CITIES 0.0% -0.4%
January 9, 2025 at 10:38 PM
The weakness in house prices continues:
Price change first 10 days of January & over the last 3 months:
SYD 0.0% -1.3%
MEL -0.2% -1.8%
BRI +0.1% +1.0%
ADE +0.3% +2.1%
Per +0.3% +1.8%
5 CITIES 0.0% -0.4%
Price change first 10 days of January & over the last 3 months:
SYD 0.0% -1.3%
MEL -0.2% -1.8%
BRI +0.1% +1.0%
ADE +0.3% +2.1%
Per +0.3% +1.8%
5 CITIES 0.0% -0.4%
Black Friday sales were expected to underpin a chunky rise in retail trade.
Instead were saw a 'brown Friday' result; weak growth that was concentrated in items with low repurchase frequency - clothes, furniture, electrical.
Big fall likely in December.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQBF...
Instead were saw a 'brown Friday' result; weak growth that was concentrated in items with low repurchase frequency - clothes, furniture, electrical.
Big fall likely in December.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQBF...
One cheer for retail spending: Retail trade sees only a tepid rise November
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
www.youtube.com
January 9, 2025 at 12:50 AM
Black Friday sales were expected to underpin a chunky rise in retail trade.
Instead were saw a 'brown Friday' result; weak growth that was concentrated in items with low repurchase frequency - clothes, furniture, electrical.
Big fall likely in December.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQBF...
Instead were saw a 'brown Friday' result; weak growth that was concentrated in items with low repurchase frequency - clothes, furniture, electrical.
Big fall likely in December.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQBF...
The inflation problem has been conquered!
November CPI rose 2.3% y/y, locking in 4 straight months of inflation being in the target range; 3 months in the lower half of the band below 2.5%.
February rate cut looks a near cert.
My Two Minute Take
www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9dP...
November CPI rose 2.3% y/y, locking in 4 straight months of inflation being in the target range; 3 months in the lower half of the band below 2.5%.
February rate cut looks a near cert.
My Two Minute Take
www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9dP...
The inflation problem has been conquered! Now for the RBA to realise it.
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
www.youtube.com
January 8, 2025 at 1:00 AM
The inflation problem has been conquered!
November CPI rose 2.3% y/y, locking in 4 straight months of inflation being in the target range; 3 months in the lower half of the band below 2.5%.
February rate cut looks a near cert.
My Two Minute Take
www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9dP...
November CPI rose 2.3% y/y, locking in 4 straight months of inflation being in the target range; 3 months in the lower half of the band below 2.5%.
February rate cut looks a near cert.
My Two Minute Take
www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9dP...
AUD is tracking US 62 cents. This has led some to speculate it will see the RBA delay rate cuts.
BBBZZZ...wrong!
The AUD is floating - and the reasons for its recent depreciation are fundamentally driven. RBA will be looking elsewhere.
My Two Minute Take
www.youtube.com/watch?v=4YS4...
BBBZZZ...wrong!
The AUD is floating - and the reasons for its recent depreciation are fundamentally driven. RBA will be looking elsewhere.
My Two Minute Take
www.youtube.com/watch?v=4YS4...
The fall in the AUD will have no influence on RBA interest Arte decisions making
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
www.youtube.com
January 3, 2025 at 9:32 PM
AUD is tracking US 62 cents. This has led some to speculate it will see the RBA delay rate cuts.
BBBZZZ...wrong!
The AUD is floating - and the reasons for its recent depreciation are fundamentally driven. RBA will be looking elsewhere.
My Two Minute Take
www.youtube.com/watch?v=4YS4...
BBBZZZ...wrong!
The AUD is floating - and the reasons for its recent depreciation are fundamentally driven. RBA will be looking elsewhere.
My Two Minute Take
www.youtube.com/watch?v=4YS4...
What's in store for the Australian economy in 2025? Here's what to look out for this year
Both home prices and the share market are tipped to go lower this year. But mortgage holders should finally see some relief.
au.finance.yahoo.com/news/whats-i...
Both home prices and the share market are tipped to go lower this year. But mortgage holders should finally see some relief.
au.finance.yahoo.com/news/whats-i...
What's in store for the Australian economy in 2025? Here's what to look out for
Both home prices and the share market are tipped to go lower this year – but the RBA is still waiting in the wings.
au.finance.yahoo.com
January 1, 2025 at 8:59 PM
What's in store for the Australian economy in 2025? Here's what to look out for this year
Both home prices and the share market are tipped to go lower this year. But mortgage holders should finally see some relief.
au.finance.yahoo.com/news/whats-i...
Both home prices and the share market are tipped to go lower this year. But mortgage holders should finally see some relief.
au.finance.yahoo.com/news/whats-i...
My 2025 calls:
GDP H1 1.5%; solid recovery H2 2.75%
Unemployment rate up; towards 4.75%
Inflation hovers 2.25 to 2.75%
Wages growth drops to 3% with downside risk
RBA cuts 150bps
10 yr bonds to 3.75%
AUD regains 70 as USD falls
House prices keep falling -6%
ASX200 weaker 7,500
GDP H1 1.5%; solid recovery H2 2.75%
Unemployment rate up; towards 4.75%
Inflation hovers 2.25 to 2.75%
Wages growth drops to 3% with downside risk
RBA cuts 150bps
10 yr bonds to 3.75%
AUD regains 70 as USD falls
House prices keep falling -6%
ASX200 weaker 7,500
December 31, 2024 at 6:23 AM
My 2025 calls:
GDP H1 1.5%; solid recovery H2 2.75%
Unemployment rate up; towards 4.75%
Inflation hovers 2.25 to 2.75%
Wages growth drops to 3% with downside risk
RBA cuts 150bps
10 yr bonds to 3.75%
AUD regains 70 as USD falls
House prices keep falling -6%
ASX200 weaker 7,500
GDP H1 1.5%; solid recovery H2 2.75%
Unemployment rate up; towards 4.75%
Inflation hovers 2.25 to 2.75%
Wages growth drops to 3% with downside risk
RBA cuts 150bps
10 yr bonds to 3.75%
AUD regains 70 as USD falls
House prices keep falling -6%
ASX200 weaker 7,500
Federal election betting markets:
Coalition slight favourites vs Labor
WARNING: Bet only what you can afford to lose.
As the Federal election draws near, betting markets will provide a decent guide of election probabilities.
My Two Minute Take
www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wXI...
Coalition slight favourites vs Labor
WARNING: Bet only what you can afford to lose.
As the Federal election draws near, betting markets will provide a decent guide of election probabilities.
My Two Minute Take
www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wXI...
Election betting markets - Coalition goes into the summer break ahead in the betting markets
YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas
www.youtube.com
December 19, 2024 at 11:36 PM
Federal election betting markets:
Coalition slight favourites vs Labor
WARNING: Bet only what you can afford to lose.
As the Federal election draws near, betting markets will provide a decent guide of election probabilities.
My Two Minute Take
www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wXI...
Coalition slight favourites vs Labor
WARNING: Bet only what you can afford to lose.
As the Federal election draws near, betting markets will provide a decent guide of election probabilities.
My Two Minute Take
www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wXI...