Andra Garner
@andrajgarner.bsky.social
Associate Professor of Environmental Science at Rowan University | Coastal Hazards researcher, including tropical cyclones and sea-level rise in a warming climate | Climate communicator | she/her | Opinions my own
Reposted by Andra Garner
🚨 Key highlights from the new publication by @mackenzieweaver.bsky.social, @andrajgarner.bsky.social, @dhrubasamanta.bsky.social, @michaelemann.bsky.social and Benjamin Horton
🔗 Article Link: www.nature.com/articles/s43...
#TropicalCyclones #CoastalHazards #ClimateChange
🔗 Article Link: www.nature.com/articles/s43...
#TropicalCyclones #CoastalHazards #ClimateChange
Insights
⬆️Genesis shifting northward across seasons
📈Winter monsoon genesis could more than double; summer up to 50%
🏝️Landfall patterns evolving Philippines in winter/spring, mainland SE Asia in summer/autumn
🌡️Humidity & wind shear increasingly influence summer/autumn genesis
@penncssm.bsky.social
⬆️Genesis shifting northward across seasons
📈Winter monsoon genesis could more than double; summer up to 50%
🏝️Landfall patterns evolving Philippines in winter/spring, mainland SE Asia in summer/autumn
🌡️Humidity & wind shear increasingly influence summer/autumn genesis
@penncssm.bsky.social
November 5, 2025 at 5:55 PM
🚨 Key highlights from the new publication by @mackenzieweaver.bsky.social, @andrajgarner.bsky.social, @dhrubasamanta.bsky.social, @michaelemann.bsky.social and Benjamin Horton
🔗 Article Link: www.nature.com/articles/s43...
#TropicalCyclones #CoastalHazards #ClimateChange
🔗 Article Link: www.nature.com/articles/s43...
#TropicalCyclones #CoastalHazards #ClimateChange
Reposted by Andra Garner
🚨 New Publication in @commsearth.nature.com
This new study led by MRG grad student @mackenzieweaver.bsky.social explores tropical cyclone genesis and landfall patterns in warming climates to understand seasonal storm patterns and impacts in Southeast Asia
Article: doi.org/10.1038/s432...
This new study led by MRG grad student @mackenzieweaver.bsky.social explores tropical cyclone genesis and landfall patterns in warming climates to understand seasonal storm patterns and impacts in Southeast Asia
Article: doi.org/10.1038/s432...
Seasonal variations of tropical cyclone genesis and landfall patterns impacting Southeast Asia in a warmer climate - Communications Earth & Environment
In Southeast Asia, tropical cyclone genesis is projected to shift northward with more seasonal activity and altered landfall patterns, according to analysis of seasonal-scale tropical cyclone genesis ...
doi.org
November 4, 2025 at 3:13 PM
🚨 New Publication in @commsearth.nature.com
This new study led by MRG grad student @mackenzieweaver.bsky.social explores tropical cyclone genesis and landfall patterns in warming climates to understand seasonal storm patterns and impacts in Southeast Asia
Article: doi.org/10.1038/s432...
This new study led by MRG grad student @mackenzieweaver.bsky.social explores tropical cyclone genesis and landfall patterns in warming climates to understand seasonal storm patterns and impacts in Southeast Asia
Article: doi.org/10.1038/s432...
Reposted by Andra Garner
🌏 New study in @commsearth.nature.com!
Led by Kenzie Weaver, our team explores how tropical cyclone genesis and landfall patterns in Southeast Asia are shifting seasonally under future warming.
www.nature.com/articles/s43...
@michaelemann.bsky.social @andrajgarner.bsky.social @NTUSingapore
Led by Kenzie Weaver, our team explores how tropical cyclone genesis and landfall patterns in Southeast Asia are shifting seasonally under future warming.
www.nature.com/articles/s43...
@michaelemann.bsky.social @andrajgarner.bsky.social @NTUSingapore
Seasonal variations of tropical cyclone genesis and landfall patterns impacting Southeast Asia in a warmer climate - Communications Earth & Environment
In Southeast Asia, tropical cyclone genesis is projected to shift northward with more seasonal activity and altered landfall patterns, according to analysis of seasonal-scale tropical cyclone genesis ...
www.nature.com
November 4, 2025 at 3:31 AM
🌏 New study in @commsearth.nature.com!
Led by Kenzie Weaver, our team explores how tropical cyclone genesis and landfall patterns in Southeast Asia are shifting seasonally under future warming.
www.nature.com/articles/s43...
@michaelemann.bsky.social @andrajgarner.bsky.social @NTUSingapore
Led by Kenzie Weaver, our team explores how tropical cyclone genesis and landfall patterns in Southeast Asia are shifting seasonally under future warming.
www.nature.com/articles/s43...
@michaelemann.bsky.social @andrajgarner.bsky.social @NTUSingapore
🚨New paper alert! 🚨
Delighted to share that our new research led by Kenzie Weaver, exploring seasonal variations in tropical cyclone genesis and landfall for Southeast Asia, has been published today in @natureportfolio.nature.com Communications Earth and Environment!
share.google/D1LoDNSgmhs1...
Delighted to share that our new research led by Kenzie Weaver, exploring seasonal variations in tropical cyclone genesis and landfall for Southeast Asia, has been published today in @natureportfolio.nature.com Communications Earth and Environment!
share.google/D1LoDNSgmhs1...
Seasonal variations of tropical cyclone genesis and landfall patterns impacting Southeast Asia in a warmer climate - Communications Earth & Environment
In Southeast Asia, tropical cyclone genesis is projected to shift northward with more seasonal activity and altered landfall patterns, according to analysis of seasonal-scale tropical cyclone genesis ...
share.google
November 3, 2025 at 4:15 PM
🚨New paper alert! 🚨
Delighted to share that our new research led by Kenzie Weaver, exploring seasonal variations in tropical cyclone genesis and landfall for Southeast Asia, has been published today in @natureportfolio.nature.com Communications Earth and Environment!
share.google/D1LoDNSgmhs1...
Delighted to share that our new research led by Kenzie Weaver, exploring seasonal variations in tropical cyclone genesis and landfall for Southeast Asia, has been published today in @natureportfolio.nature.com Communications Earth and Environment!
share.google/D1LoDNSgmhs1...
Reposted by Andra Garner
i do not believe for a second that the hundreds of thousands of layoffs we’re seeing right now are bc ai is replacing them, seems much more likely that the economy is imploding along with corporate mismanagement
October 29, 2025 at 4:40 PM
i do not believe for a second that the hundreds of thousands of layoffs we’re seeing right now are bc ai is replacing them, seems much more likely that the economy is imploding along with corporate mismanagement
Important piece covering the ways in which warm ocean waters--made more likely by human activity--contributed to the catastrophic impacts we're seeing from #Melissa.
"Hurricane Melissa has been astonishing to watch — even as someone who studies how these storms are impacted by a warming climate," @andrajgarner.bsky.social told @zeitlin.bsky.social.
Here's more on the storm that is battering Jamaica — and astounding researchers:
Here's more on the storm that is battering Jamaica — and astounding researchers:
How Hurricane Melissa Got So Strong So Fast
The storm currently battering Jamaica is the third Category 5 to form in the Atlantic Ocean this year, matching the previous record.
heatmap.news
October 28, 2025 at 11:49 PM
Important piece covering the ways in which warm ocean waters--made more likely by human activity--contributed to the catastrophic impacts we're seeing from #Melissa.
892mb, 185mph.
You can spend your career doing work that shows we should expect more dangerous storms in a warmer climate... But it never gets less mind-blowing or heartbreaking to watch something like this unfold.
You can spend your career doing work that shows we should expect more dangerous storms in a warmer climate... But it never gets less mind-blowing or heartbreaking to watch something like this unfold.
October 28, 2025 at 2:12 PM
892mb, 185mph.
You can spend your career doing work that shows we should expect more dangerous storms in a warmer climate... But it never gets less mind-blowing or heartbreaking to watch something like this unfold.
You can spend your career doing work that shows we should expect more dangerous storms in a warmer climate... But it never gets less mind-blowing or heartbreaking to watch something like this unfold.
Reposted by Andra Garner
Finally, an independent expert, political economist @blairfix.bsky.social, has actually taken a look under the hood, digging deep into the details of Roger's methodology, and it's not pretty. Blair's commentary speaks for itself: economicsfromthetopdown.com/2025/10/26/r...
Roger Pielke Jr.’s Appallingly Bad Analysis of Billion Dollar Disasters – Economics from the Top Down
In a recent paper called Scientific integrity and U.S. “Billion Dollar Disasters”, Roger Pielke Jr. published a chart that's so bad I've devoted a whole essay to debunking it.
economicsfromthetopdown.com
October 27, 2025 at 11:53 PM
Finally, an independent expert, political economist @blairfix.bsky.social, has actually taken a look under the hood, digging deep into the details of Roger's methodology, and it's not pretty. Blair's commentary speaks for itself: economicsfromthetopdown.com/2025/10/26/r...
The human and social impacts of #Melissa are almost certain to be beyond devastating.
The western end of Jamaica where #Melissa is projected to make landfall has the least well-built structures of anyplace on the island. Graphic is from a 2021 paper, "Poverty and hurricane risk exposure in Jamaica": www.researchgate.net/publication/...
October 28, 2025 at 2:16 AM
The human and social impacts of #Melissa are almost certain to be beyond devastating.
Reposted by Andra Garner
In my 30 years being a professional meteorologist, I can't say I have ever seen a #Hurricane with better/ more textbook structure than #Melissa in the Atlantic.
It's been a Cat 5 all day long with no signs of getting any weaker. That's a rare run! Here's more...
It's been a Cat 5 all day long with no signs of getting any weaker. That's a rare run! Here's more...
October 28, 2025 at 12:50 AM
In my 30 years being a professional meteorologist, I can't say I have ever seen a #Hurricane with better/ more textbook structure than #Melissa in the Atlantic.
It's been a Cat 5 all day long with no signs of getting any weaker. That's a rare run! Here's more...
It's been a Cat 5 all day long with no signs of getting any weaker. That's a rare run! Here's more...
Happy to have provided input for this well-written story by @laurenthal.bsky.social, highlighting some of the reasons to be concerned about #Melissa, and some of the ways that storms like this are becoming more dangerous in a warmer climate:
share.google/96AvQEWmomwa...
share.google/96AvQEWmomwa...
Storm Melissa's Slow Pace Is What Makes It Risky for Caribbean
The slowness of the storm means it is likely to increase rainfall, dumping several feet of water in some areas.
share.google
October 28, 2025 at 1:37 AM
Happy to have provided input for this well-written story by @laurenthal.bsky.social, highlighting some of the reasons to be concerned about #Melissa, and some of the ways that storms like this are becoming more dangerous in a warmer climate:
share.google/96AvQEWmomwa...
share.google/96AvQEWmomwa...
Reposted by Andra Garner
For only the second time in recorded history, an Atlantic season has produced three Category 5 hurricanes... the previous year was 2005. This puts 2025 in an elite class of hurricane seasons. It also means that nearly 7% of all known Category 5 hurricanes have occurred just in this year.
#Melissa
#Melissa
Melissa becomes third Category 5 hurricane of the extraordinary 2025 season
Updates and summaries on tropical Atlantic activity... including easterly waves, tropical storms, subtropical storms, and hurricanes.
bmcnoldy.blogspot.com
October 27, 2025 at 11:21 AM
For only the second time in recorded history, an Atlantic season has produced three Category 5 hurricanes... the previous year was 2005. This puts 2025 in an elite class of hurricane seasons. It also means that nearly 7% of all known Category 5 hurricanes have occurred just in this year.
#Melissa
#Melissa
Changes we expect to hurricanes in a warmer climate include more rapid strengthening, slower forward movement, and more torrential rainfall--all characteristics that describe the incredibly dangerous #Melissa. If you know anyone in Jamaica, please make sure they get to safety.
October 26, 2025 at 10:00 PM
Changes we expect to hurricanes in a warmer climate include more rapid strengthening, slower forward movement, and more torrential rainfall--all characteristics that describe the incredibly dangerous #Melissa. If you know anyone in Jamaica, please make sure they get to safety.
Really glad to hear that @climatecentral.org has been working to revive and maintain the incredibly important "Billion Dollar Climate and Weather Disasters" dataset, as we continue to see human-caused warming making these disasters more costly and dangerous:
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/22/c...
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/22/c...
In First Six Months, Cost of Weather Catastrophes Escalated at a Record Pace
www.nytimes.com
October 22, 2025 at 6:59 PM
Really glad to hear that @climatecentral.org has been working to revive and maintain the incredibly important "Billion Dollar Climate and Weather Disasters" dataset, as we continue to see human-caused warming making these disasters more costly and dangerous:
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/22/c...
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/22/c...
One of the findings from our 2024 manuscript assessing changes in tropical cyclone tracks near Southeast Asia was that, in a warmer climate, it becomes more common for these kinds of storms to impact Alaskan coastlines: share.google/pko58Q42M0lZ...
October 14, 2025 at 3:13 PM
One of the findings from our 2024 manuscript assessing changes in tropical cyclone tracks near Southeast Asia was that, in a warmer climate, it becomes more common for these kinds of storms to impact Alaskan coastlines: share.google/pko58Q42M0lZ...
Reposted by Andra Garner
On The Climate Brink: More about the DOE Climate Working Group report.
The Fix Is In: Without independent review editors, their “peer review” process is a sham. Science and humanity deserves better.
The Fix Is In: Without independent review editors, their “peer review” process is a sham. Science and humanity deserves better.
The fix is in
Judy Curry unwittingly spills the beans
www.theclimatebrink.com
September 4, 2025 at 6:40 PM
On The Climate Brink: More about the DOE Climate Working Group report.
The Fix Is In: Without independent review editors, their “peer review” process is a sham. Science and humanity deserves better.
The Fix Is In: Without independent review editors, their “peer review” process is a sham. Science and humanity deserves better.
Reposted by Andra Garner
Some energy/climate math for the late night crowd:
Total Absorbed Solar Energy: 240 W/m2
Total human primary energy use in 2024: 186kTWh
(from ourworldindata.org/energy-produ...)
Converting: 186*10^15/5.1x10^14/3600= 0.1 W/m2
=> total energy from solar is 2400 times what we use.
Total Absorbed Solar Energy: 240 W/m2
Total human primary energy use in 2024: 186kTWh
(from ourworldindata.org/energy-produ...)
Converting: 186*10^15/5.1x10^14/3600= 0.1 W/m2
=> total energy from solar is 2400 times what we use.
Energy Production and Consumption
Explore data on how energy production and use varies across the world.
ourworldindata.org
September 3, 2025 at 2:02 AM
Some energy/climate math for the late night crowd:
Total Absorbed Solar Energy: 240 W/m2
Total human primary energy use in 2024: 186kTWh
(from ourworldindata.org/energy-produ...)
Converting: 186*10^15/5.1x10^14/3600= 0.1 W/m2
=> total energy from solar is 2400 times what we use.
Total Absorbed Solar Energy: 240 W/m2
Total human primary energy use in 2024: 186kTWh
(from ourworldindata.org/energy-produ...)
Converting: 186*10^15/5.1x10^14/3600= 0.1 W/m2
=> total energy from solar is 2400 times what we use.
Reposted by Andra Garner
Our 400+ page comment on the DOE climate working group report is now out.
Our conclusion: The merchants of doubt are back, and they're coming for climate science.
Our conclusion: The merchants of doubt are back, and they're coming for climate science.
DOEresponseSite
On July 29, 2025, the Department of Energy (DOE) published a report from its Climate Working Group (CWG). This report features prominently in the EPA's reconsideration of its 2009 Endangerment Finding. In response, over 85 scientists have come together to write a comprehensive review, which is
sites.google.com
September 2, 2025 at 1:24 PM
Our 400+ page comment on the DOE climate working group report is now out.
Our conclusion: The merchants of doubt are back, and they're coming for climate science.
Our conclusion: The merchants of doubt are back, and they're coming for climate science.
Reposted by Andra Garner
On The Climate Brink, I write about the DOE report and our response.
The merchants of doubt are back
But this time, it's the U.S. government pushing doubt
www.theclimatebrink.com
September 2, 2025 at 2:12 PM
On The Climate Brink, I write about the DOE report and our response.
Glad to have been able to take part in this important effort, and to work with colleagues to provide a response to the DOE Climate Working Group report's sea level and tropical cyclone sections, in particular. Many thanks to @andrewdessler.com and @bobkopp.net for helping to organize this effort!
The Department of Energy hired five academics to raise doubts about climate change. 85+ climate experts (organized by @andrewdessler.com) reviewed their report. Our conclusion, detailed in 450 pages of analysis: it is biased, full of errors, and not fit to inform policy making.
DOEresponseSite
On July 29, 2025, the Department of Energy (DOE) published a report from its Climate Working Group (CWG). This report features prominently in the EPA's reconsideration of its 2009 Endangerment Finding...
sites.google.com
September 2, 2025 at 8:28 PM
Glad to have been able to take part in this important effort, and to work with colleagues to provide a response to the DOE Climate Working Group report's sea level and tropical cyclone sections, in particular. Many thanks to @andrewdessler.com and @bobkopp.net for helping to organize this effort!
Reposted by Andra Garner
New nonprofit climate group forms, aims to resurrect climate.gov, National Climate Assessment and other lost data www.cnn.com/2025/08/28/c...
Climate.gov will re-launch under new URL thanks to a secret team of web ninjas | CNN
A small group of writers and researchers are launching an ambitious effort to preserve key climate data that the Trump administration has taken offline, including the climate.gov website.
www.cnn.com
August 28, 2025 at 5:01 PM
New nonprofit climate group forms, aims to resurrect climate.gov, National Climate Assessment and other lost data www.cnn.com/2025/08/28/c...
Reposted by Andra Garner
This radar loop of Hurricane #Katrina in 2005 spans August 28 at noon (CDT) through the morning of the 29th at 8:54am when communication with the radar was lost.
August 28, 2025 at 11:07 PM
This radar loop of Hurricane #Katrina in 2005 spans August 28 at noon (CDT) through the morning of the 29th at 8:54am when communication with the radar was lost.
Proud to have helped out with this enormous effort.
Say it louder for the people in the back: "The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than that needed to produce it."
Say it louder for the people in the back: "The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than that needed to produce it."
Our comment on the DOE CWG report is done. It tips the scales at 439 pages, approx. 3x longer than the DOE report.
This is related to Brandolini's law: The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than that needed to produce it.
Example: refuting one sentence.
This is related to Brandolini's law: The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than that needed to produce it.
Example: refuting one sentence.
August 28, 2025 at 1:32 AM
Proud to have helped out with this enormous effort.
Say it louder for the people in the back: "The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than that needed to produce it."
Say it louder for the people in the back: "The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than that needed to produce it."
Really nice piece in @agu.org's Earth's Future a few days ago, showing excellent agreement between satellite observations of sea level in recent decades and the sea level projections from the IPCC's Second Assessment report 30 years ago.
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
August 28, 2025 at 12:00 AM
Really nice piece in @agu.org's Earth's Future a few days ago, showing excellent agreement between satellite observations of sea level in recent decades and the sea level projections from the IPCC's Second Assessment report 30 years ago.
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
Keeping an eye on Typhoon Kajiki as it brings impacts to an area that we found faces increasing Typhoon hazards as storm tracks change in a warmer climate (part of our 2024 manuscript in @natureportfolio.nature.com's npj Climate and Atmospheric Science): share.google/SrSMsDA1fBxI...
August 25, 2025 at 2:22 PM
Keeping an eye on Typhoon Kajiki as it brings impacts to an area that we found faces increasing Typhoon hazards as storm tracks change in a warmer climate (part of our 2024 manuscript in @natureportfolio.nature.com's npj Climate and Atmospheric Science): share.google/SrSMsDA1fBxI...