Ali Duffey
@aliduffey.bsky.social
Climate science, solar geoengineering, arctic change
PhD student at University College London
PhD student at University College London
Reposted by Ali Duffey
In 2022, archaeologists at @uni-kiel.de's @neolithicbodies.bsky.social found 34 decapitated skeletons piled in a space the size of a parking spot. In the 3 years since, they’ve found 50 more. The mass grave is evidence for the collapse of the 1st pan-European culture 7,000 years ago. @science.org 🏺💀
Headless bodies hint at why Europe’s first farmers vanished
Wave of mass brutality accompanied the collapse of the first pan-European culture
www.science.org
November 20, 2025 at 7:17 PM
In 2022, archaeologists at @uni-kiel.de's @neolithicbodies.bsky.social found 34 decapitated skeletons piled in a space the size of a parking spot. In the 3 years since, they’ve found 50 more. The mass grave is evidence for the collapse of the 1st pan-European culture 7,000 years ago. @science.org 🏺💀
Reposted by Ali Duffey
@aliduffey.bsky.social and I have a new response to the Siegert et al piece on geoengineering published as a commentary in Frontiers (the online version is now properly edited with the figure).
Frontiers | Commentary: Safeguarding the polar regions from dangerous geoengineering: a critical assessment of proposed concepts and future prospects
Research into polar climate intervention is understandably controversial. The deliberate manipulation of Earth's climate has deep physical, political, an...
www.frontiersin.org
November 14, 2025 at 10:34 AM
@aliduffey.bsky.social and I have a new response to the Siegert et al piece on geoengineering published as a commentary in Frontiers (the online version is now properly edited with the figure).
Reposted by Ali Duffey
Should we start historical climate simulations in 1750 (or 1800) rather than 1850?
Importance of beginning industrial-era climate simulations in the eighteenth century
Ballinger, Schurer et al.: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
Importance of beginning industrial-era climate simulations in the eighteenth century
Ballinger, Schurer et al.: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
November 6, 2025 at 3:45 PM
Should we start historical climate simulations in 1750 (or 1800) rather than 1850?
Importance of beginning industrial-era climate simulations in the eighteenth century
Ballinger, Schurer et al.: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
Importance of beginning industrial-era climate simulations in the eighteenth century
Ballinger, Schurer et al.: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
Reposted by Ali Duffey
In this opinion piece, two scientists argue that the growing commercial efforts to counter climate change by reflecting away sunlight will thwart responsible research in the field.
Why the for-profit race into solar geoengineering is bad for science and public trust
Two scientists argue that the growing commercial efforts to counter climate change by reflecting away sunlight will thwart responsible research in the field.
www.technologyreview.com
November 4, 2025 at 3:05 PM
In this opinion piece, two scientists argue that the growing commercial efforts to counter climate change by reflecting away sunlight will thwart responsible research in the field.
Reposted by Ali Duffey
📝 Call for all Polar Researchers to take the Science under Pressure survey!
Submissions deadline is 15 November 2025
Read more and take the survey: www.rug.nl/research/arc...
Submissions deadline is 15 November 2025
Read more and take the survey: www.rug.nl/research/arc...
Science under Pressure
Science under pressure: Reflecting on conditions, practices and institutional structures for sustainable polar research
www.rug.nl
October 31, 2025 at 9:35 AM
📝 Call for all Polar Researchers to take the Science under Pressure survey!
Submissions deadline is 15 November 2025
Read more and take the survey: www.rug.nl/research/arc...
Submissions deadline is 15 November 2025
Read more and take the survey: www.rug.nl/research/arc...
"when we deploy it we will see how effective is"
I hear this quite a bit but it isn't true.
10 years into a hypothetical SAI deployment, observed rainfall patterns would be pretty much useless for reducing our uncertainty in e.g. indian summer monsoon impacts
I hear this quite a bit but it isn't true.
10 years into a hypothetical SAI deployment, observed rainfall patterns would be pretty much useless for reducing our uncertainty in e.g. indian summer monsoon impacts
Absolutely!
The effect just depends on the model taken. So it's easy to meddle around...
When we will deploy it we will see how effective it is and understand the side effects
Sadly, we will need it...
If we start we have with all we've got to reduce our emissions as otherwise its a death trap
The effect just depends on the model taken. So it's easy to meddle around...
When we will deploy it we will see how effective it is and understand the side effects
Sadly, we will need it...
If we start we have with all we've got to reduce our emissions as otherwise its a death trap
October 18, 2025 at 11:18 AM
"when we deploy it we will see how effective is"
I hear this quite a bit but it isn't true.
10 years into a hypothetical SAI deployment, observed rainfall patterns would be pretty much useless for reducing our uncertainty in e.g. indian summer monsoon impacts
I hear this quite a bit but it isn't true.
10 years into a hypothetical SAI deployment, observed rainfall patterns would be pretty much useless for reducing our uncertainty in e.g. indian summer monsoon impacts
Reposted by Ali Duffey
Interesting new paper from Exeter colleague Jim Haywood, and previous @exeter.ac.uk PhD student Alice Wells about geoengineering - specifically what would sulphate aerosol injection do with respect to high levels of global warming 1/2.
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
A Risk‐Risk Assessment of Climate Extremes: Comparing Greenhouse Gas Warming and Stratospheric Aerosol Injection in UKESM1
This study compares the impacts on extreme events under climate change with and without a multi-latitude Stratospheric Aerosol Injection strategy in UKESM1 G6controller reduces extreme heat relat...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
October 17, 2025 at 7:41 AM
Interesting new paper from Exeter colleague Jim Haywood, and previous @exeter.ac.uk PhD student Alice Wells about geoengineering - specifically what would sulphate aerosol injection do with respect to high levels of global warming 1/2.
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
The NYT piece quoted here is amazing. Written over 70 years ago and reads exactly like articles about this summer's Texas Rainmaker conspiracy
Longtime climate scientist J. Michael Wallace got his start in meteorology back when pre-internet conspiracy theorists asserted that a nuclear test caused a tornado... Now he reflects on a heap of lessons learned as global warming science has piled up. revkin.substack.com/p/warming-wo... 🧪
October 16, 2025 at 9:57 AM
The NYT piece quoted here is amazing. Written over 70 years ago and reads exactly like articles about this summer's Texas Rainmaker conspiracy
love this chart. It's too late for 1.5, but the fight for 2C is very much still alive
Yep, while there is a growing literature on emissions and climate outcomes under current policy scenarios (and we can more firmly rule out things like 5x more coal by 2100 globally), current policies represent neither a ceiling nor floor on future emissions: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
October 1, 2025 at 8:50 AM
love this chart. It's too late for 1.5, but the fight for 2C is very much still alive
Reposted by Ali Duffey
wrote about this last year and sure I wasn't in any way the only one but imo people voting for populist politics in the 21st century *is* a sign that they do just have too much faith in institutions, as opposed to not enough - they want to have their little tantrum but assume things will just hold
September 19, 2025 at 8:23 PM
wrote about this last year and sure I wasn't in any way the only one but imo people voting for populist politics in the 21st century *is* a sign that they do just have too much faith in institutions, as opposed to not enough - they want to have their little tantrum but assume things will just hold
Is this a crisis or not? Are tipping point risks serious or not?
Net zero is non-negotiable, but climate impacts are here, and all plausible emissions scenarios see us pass 1.5C.
If now is not a reasonable time to explore radical ideas, when would be?
Net zero is non-negotiable, but climate impacts are here, and all plausible emissions scenarios see us pass 1.5C.
If now is not a reasonable time to explore radical ideas, when would be?
Polar #geoengineering dismissed as “unimaginably expensive” and “dangerous”
Giant underwater curtains and artificial ice thickening diverts attention from cutting fossil fuel burning, climate scientists argue - but proponents disagree
#climatecrisis
Story by me
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Giant underwater curtains and artificial ice thickening diverts attention from cutting fossil fuel burning, climate scientists argue - but proponents disagree
#climatecrisis
Story by me
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Polar geoengineering dismissed as ‘unimaginably expensive’ and ‘dangerous’
Underwater curtains and artificial ice thickening divert attention from cutting fossil fuel use, says group of climate scientists
www.theguardian.com
September 9, 2025 at 12:42 PM
Is this a crisis or not? Are tipping point risks serious or not?
Net zero is non-negotiable, but climate impacts are here, and all plausible emissions scenarios see us pass 1.5C.
If now is not a reasonable time to explore radical ideas, when would be?
Net zero is non-negotiable, but climate impacts are here, and all plausible emissions scenarios see us pass 1.5C.
If now is not a reasonable time to explore radical ideas, when would be?
Reposted by Ali Duffey
One of the all-time great test matches. One of the all-time great series.
Topsy-turvy, up and down and, in the end, perfectly balanced. Can't say fairer than that.
Topsy-turvy, up and down and, in the end, perfectly balanced. Can't say fairer than that.
August 4, 2025 at 10:59 AM
One of the all-time great test matches. One of the all-time great series.
Topsy-turvy, up and down and, in the end, perfectly balanced. Can't say fairer than that.
Topsy-turvy, up and down and, in the end, perfectly balanced. Can't say fairer than that.
Reposted by Ali Duffey
The Guardian will publish scary headlines about ice sheet and AMOC collapse on a Friday, then stuff like this on a Monday: www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
How are people supposed to navigate this? Is climate change an urgent problem, or not?
How are people supposed to navigate this? Is climate change an urgent problem, or not?
Ed Miliband would let a turbine farm destroy Brontë country. We need net zero, but at what cost? | Simon Jenkins
Of course the climate crisis must be confronted, but history, tranquility and beauty must also count for something, says Guardian columnist Simon Jenkins
www.theguardian.com
July 14, 2025 at 11:22 AM
The Guardian will publish scary headlines about ice sheet and AMOC collapse on a Friday, then stuff like this on a Monday: www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
How are people supposed to navigate this? Is climate change an urgent problem, or not?
How are people supposed to navigate this? Is climate change an urgent problem, or not?
Given this context, I'm delighted to share a new review on the solar geoengineering and earth system tipping points. Its a long read including ice sheets, AMOC, coral reefs, Amazon dieback and various others..
TLDR: solar geo probably helps avoid tipping, but a lot more research is needed
TLDR: solar geo probably helps avoid tipping, but a lot more research is needed
New Scientist has a report on a controversial issue discussed last week at the #GlobalTippingPoints conference in Exeter: will we need solar radiation interference as a desperate measure, as politicians are failing to phase out fossil fuels?
www.newscientist.com/article/2487...
www.newscientist.com/article/2487...
Geoengineering could avoid climate tipping points, but not if we delay
Putting aerosols in the stratosphere to reflect sunlight could prevent the shutdown of key ocean currents, but only if it is done soon, a computer model suggests
www.newscientist.com
July 11, 2025 at 10:21 AM
Given this context, I'm delighted to share a new review on the solar geoengineering and earth system tipping points. Its a long read including ice sheets, AMOC, coral reefs, Amazon dieback and various others..
TLDR: solar geo probably helps avoid tipping, but a lot more research is needed
TLDR: solar geo probably helps avoid tipping, but a lot more research is needed
Reposted by Ali Duffey
New opportunity: Become a DSG Fellow and contribute to building critical expertise on solar geoengineering governance. Early- or mid-career and working in climate science, policy, ethics, law, or humanities with an interest in SRM? Apply now: www.sgdeliberation.org/our-work/res...
July 7, 2025 at 3:17 PM
New opportunity: Become a DSG Fellow and contribute to building critical expertise on solar geoengineering governance. Early- or mid-career and working in climate science, policy, ethics, law, or humanities with an interest in SRM? Apply now: www.sgdeliberation.org/our-work/res...
Reposted by Ali Duffey
And remember that the peak temperatures you experience in SE England in the next couple of days will be 4-5°C warmer than they would have been with similar weather patterns in the climate of a century ago.
June 29, 2025 at 5:53 PM
And remember that the peak temperatures you experience in SE England in the next couple of days will be 4-5°C warmer than they would have been with similar weather patterns in the climate of a century ago.
It was great fun collaborating with Robbie and others on this paper.
The stability of the winter Arctic atmosphere is a big part of why it is warming so fast in that season, so its important to understand whether the models are doing a reasonable job, and if not, why.
The stability of the winter Arctic atmosphere is a big part of why it is warming so fast in that season, so its important to understand whether the models are doing a reasonable job, and if not, why.
Paper out today led by @aliduffey.bsky.social where we compare the atmospheric boundary layer in climate models to 7000 vertical profiles from Soviet ice stations + ~500 from the MOSAiC & SHEBA campaigns.
More forays into the world of polar meteorology to come!
dx.doi.org/10.1029/2024...
More forays into the world of polar meteorology to come!
dx.doi.org/10.1029/2024...
Representation of Arctic Winter Atmospheric Boundary Layer Stability Over Sea Ice in CMIP6 Models
A cloudy state, without strong low-level stability (LLS), is often observed over winter Arctic sea ice but is absent in most Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) models
CMIP6 models show...
dx.doi.org
June 9, 2025 at 2:23 PM
It was great fun collaborating with Robbie and others on this paper.
The stability of the winter Arctic atmosphere is a big part of why it is warming so fast in that season, so its important to understand whether the models are doing a reasonable job, and if not, why.
The stability of the winter Arctic atmosphere is a big part of why it is warming so fast in that season, so its important to understand whether the models are doing a reasonable job, and if not, why.
Reposted by Ali Duffey
In today's post I catch up with some #geoengineering #metaphors which I have been observing since around 2009 blogs.nottingham.ac.uk/makingscienc...
Geoengineering and metaphors, 2009 to 2025: Continuity and change - Making Science Public
Since around 2006, I have been interested in speculations about geoengineering, that is, attempts to deal with climate change by directly intervening in the planet’s atmosphere, oceans, or land. Such interventions include pulling carbon dioxide from the atmosphere or dampening solar radiation. In the UK there have been three inflection points in reflections about such ...
blogs.nottingham.ac.uk
May 30, 2025 at 6:20 AM
In today's post I catch up with some #geoengineering #metaphors which I have been observing since around 2009 blogs.nottingham.ac.uk/makingscienc...
Feels like the 1.5C date has been coming towards us faster than we have been going towards it over the last few years
An underappreciated aspect of the new WMO report -- if the temperature predictions are correct, the world will pass 1.5C in as a long-term average (i.e., the _actual_ Paris goal) in 2027.
In just two years.
www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
In just two years.
www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
Earth could cross a key climate threshold in two years. Here’s why it matters.
A new World Meteorological Organization report spells the end of the world’s most famous climate goal.
www.washingtonpost.com
May 29, 2025 at 4:58 PM
Feels like the 1.5C date has been coming towards us faster than we have been going towards it over the last few years
Come for the acronym puns, stay for the SAI emulator trained on data from two different ESMs across a wide range of injection strategies
(great new pre-print lead by Jared Farley)
egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
(great new pre-print lead by Jared Farley)
egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
A Climate Intervention Dynamical Emulator (CIDER) for Scenario Space Exploration
Abstract. Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) is a form of climate intervention that has been proposed as a way to reflect incoming solar radiation in order to provide a cooling effect and offset so...
egusphere.copernicus.org
May 21, 2025 at 11:09 AM
Come for the acronym puns, stay for the SAI emulator trained on data from two different ESMs across a wide range of injection strategies
(great new pre-print lead by Jared Farley)
egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
(great new pre-print lead by Jared Farley)
egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
I had a fantastic time this week at the Degrees Global Forum on SRM. The largest conference of its kind so far, and a real step forward in diversifying the conversation on solar geo.
Huge kudos to @degrees.ngo for pulling it off.
Huge kudos to @degrees.ngo for pulling it off.
May 17, 2025 at 6:43 PM
I had a fantastic time this week at the Degrees Global Forum on SRM. The largest conference of its kind so far, and a real step forward in diversifying the conversation on solar geo.
Huge kudos to @degrees.ngo for pulling it off.
Huge kudos to @degrees.ngo for pulling it off.
A rare win for the UK government 🇬🇧
May 14, 2025 at 8:31 AM
A rare win for the UK government 🇬🇧
Reposted by Ali Duffey
Let’s go! 🚀 #DGF2025 kicking off today in Cape Town—the world’s largest-ever forum on solar radiation modification and the first held in Africa.
Over 330 participants from 30+ countries are here to shape the global conversation on the science, equity, and governance of SRM.
Over 330 participants from 30+ countries are here to shape the global conversation on the science, equity, and governance of SRM.
May 12, 2025 at 2:48 PM
Let’s go! 🚀 #DGF2025 kicking off today in Cape Town—the world’s largest-ever forum on solar radiation modification and the first held in Africa.
Over 330 participants from 30+ countries are here to shape the global conversation on the science, equity, and governance of SRM.
Over 330 participants from 30+ countries are here to shape the global conversation on the science, equity, and governance of SRM.