Arthur Leichthammer
@aleichthammer.bsky.social
Policy Fellow Geoeconomics @ Jacques Delors Centre, Berlin
Reposted by Arthur Leichthammer
No I don’t think so either. My comment was more related to the fact that the EPP is only scutinizing non-EPP/non-ECR countries.
Their targeting of Spain has different roots I think and is also not new, see e.g. the derailing of Riberas hearing for Commissioner by EPP MEPs
Their targeting of Spain has different roots I think and is also not new, see e.g. the derailing of Riberas hearing for Commissioner by EPP MEPs
February 18, 2026 at 10:13 AM
No I don’t think so either. My comment was more related to the fact that the EPP is only scutinizing non-EPP/non-ECR countries.
Their targeting of Spain has different roots I think and is also not new, see e.g. the derailing of Riberas hearing for Commissioner by EPP MEPs
Their targeting of Spain has different roots I think and is also not new, see e.g. the derailing of Riberas hearing for Commissioner by EPP MEPs
Reposted by Arthur Leichthammer
Tomorrow’s summit is a chance for EU leaders to stop chasing the wrong fixes — and finally sketch a response that matches the scale of Europe’s economic challenge.
Here, lucasguttenberg.bsky.social, @sandertordoir.bsky.social and I lay out what that could look like.
www.politico.eu/article/euro...
Here, lucasguttenberg.bsky.social, @sandertordoir.bsky.social and I lay out what that could look like.
www.politico.eu/article/euro...
Europe is chasing the wrong fix for its growth crisis
The continent’s old growth model no longer works in today’s world. And EU leaders need a plan that matches the scale of this shift.
www.politico.eu
February 11, 2026 at 7:12 AM
Tomorrow’s summit is a chance for EU leaders to stop chasing the wrong fixes — and finally sketch a response that matches the scale of Europe’s economic challenge.
Here, lucasguttenberg.bsky.social, @sandertordoir.bsky.social and I lay out what that could look like.
www.politico.eu/article/euro...
Here, lucasguttenberg.bsky.social, @sandertordoir.bsky.social and I lay out what that could look like.
www.politico.eu/article/euro...
Reposted by Arthur Leichthammer
Commission to table prolongation of the suspension of retaliatory tariffs against the US for another 6 months. Current suspension expires on 7 Feb. EC also says it hasn't yet taken a decision on whether to provisionally apply the Mercosur pact borderlex.net/2026/01/23/e...
EU to extend suspension of US retaliatory tariffs for six months - Borderlex - European trade policy
The European Commission announced it will "soon" table a proposal to prolong the suspension of retaliatory tariffs against the United States by six months, spokesperson Olof Gill said.
borderlex.net
January 23, 2026 at 1:44 PM
Commission to table prolongation of the suspension of retaliatory tariffs against the US for another 6 months. Current suspension expires on 7 Feb. EC also says it hasn't yet taken a decision on whether to provisionally apply the Mercosur pact borderlex.net/2026/01/23/e...
Reposted by Arthur Leichthammer
‼️🩸A bloodbath for the German auto trade with China in 2025:
📉70% drop in mid-sized saloon car exports
📉38% drop in large engine cars
📉39% fall in small ones
📉54% drop in small station wagons
📉23% for larger ones
📉70% drop in mid-sized saloon car exports
📉38% drop in large engine cars
📉39% fall in small ones
📉54% drop in small station wagons
📉23% for larger ones
January 23, 2026 at 1:56 PM
‼️🩸A bloodbath for the German auto trade with China in 2025:
📉70% drop in mid-sized saloon car exports
📉38% drop in large engine cars
📉39% fall in small ones
📉54% drop in small station wagons
📉23% for larger ones
📉70% drop in mid-sized saloon car exports
📉38% drop in large engine cars
📉39% fall in small ones
📉54% drop in small station wagons
📉23% for larger ones
Reposted by Arthur Leichthammer
You may have missed it amidst the chaos of the last few days, but there is a new high-level EU report in town: A Franco-German task force led by Jörg Kukies and Christian Noyer presented recommendations to tackle the scale-up financing gap.
Here is what it says and why you should care about it.
Here is what it says and why you should care about it.
January 23, 2026 at 1:12 PM
You may have missed it amidst the chaos of the last few days, but there is a new high-level EU report in town: A Franco-German task force led by Jörg Kukies and Christian Noyer presented recommendations to tackle the scale-up financing gap.
Here is what it says and why you should care about it.
Here is what it says and why you should care about it.
Reposted by Arthur Leichthammer
January 22, 2026 at 7:46 AM
Reposted by Arthur Leichthammer
Everyone is talking about the EU’s supposed trade bazooka -but understanding how it would actually work is a different matter.
For those who want to dig into the details, Arthur has you covered with a brilliant thread.
For those who want to dig into the details, Arthur has you covered with a brilliant thread.
🧵 Trump’s Greenland brinkmanship puts the EU’s Anti-Coercion Instrument back on the table. Few cases fit economic coercion more cleanly.
But the ACI is often misunderstood. It’s not a bazooka, but a slow-loading cannon, able to fire anything from heavy shells to hot air. Here’s how it works ⬇️
But the ACI is often misunderstood. It’s not a bazooka, but a slow-loading cannon, able to fire anything from heavy shells to hot air. Here’s how it works ⬇️
January 20, 2026 at 3:52 PM
Everyone is talking about the EU’s supposed trade bazooka -but understanding how it would actually work is a different matter.
For those who want to dig into the details, Arthur has you covered with a brilliant thread.
For those who want to dig into the details, Arthur has you covered with a brilliant thread.
I'm with you - actually I believe the comitology procedure makes it even more difficult to pass Council QMV vote
Having said that, in an evolving conflict there cannot be fixed previously decided measures and it is illusory to think COM would move strongly against MS consortium in response measures
Having said that, in an evolving conflict there cannot be fixed previously decided measures and it is illusory to think COM would move strongly against MS consortium in response measures
This is of course correct, but just to add: The Council will most likely not hand the Commission the keys to the ACI armory without exactly knowing in advance what guns it wants to take out and use and how. So the comitology most likely won’t matter a ton.
5️⃣Adoption of response measures
These measures are adopted via Comitology Regulation (Reg. 182/2011) and source of the most confusion I've seen.
Instead of the Council, member states give their view in a committee, either accepting or blocking the proposed measures via QMV.
These measures are adopted via Comitology Regulation (Reg. 182/2011) and source of the most confusion I've seen.
Instead of the Council, member states give their view in a committee, either accepting or blocking the proposed measures via QMV.
January 20, 2026 at 3:22 PM
I'm with you - actually I believe the comitology procedure makes it even more difficult to pass Council QMV vote
Having said that, in an evolving conflict there cannot be fixed previously decided measures and it is illusory to think COM would move strongly against MS consortium in response measures
Having said that, in an evolving conflict there cannot be fixed previously decided measures and it is illusory to think COM would move strongly against MS consortium in response measures
🧵 Trump’s Greenland brinkmanship puts the EU’s Anti-Coercion Instrument back on the table. Few cases fit economic coercion more cleanly.
But the ACI is often misunderstood. It’s not a bazooka, but a slow-loading cannon, able to fire anything from heavy shells to hot air. Here’s how it works ⬇️
But the ACI is often misunderstood. It’s not a bazooka, but a slow-loading cannon, able to fire anything from heavy shells to hot air. Here’s how it works ⬇️
January 20, 2026 at 2:32 PM
🧵 Trump’s Greenland brinkmanship puts the EU’s Anti-Coercion Instrument back on the table. Few cases fit economic coercion more cleanly.
But the ACI is often misunderstood. It’s not a bazooka, but a slow-loading cannon, able to fire anything from heavy shells to hot air. Here’s how it works ⬇️
But the ACI is often misunderstood. It’s not a bazooka, but a slow-loading cannon, able to fire anything from heavy shells to hot air. Here’s how it works ⬇️
Reposted by Arthur Leichthammer
Reposted by Arthur Leichthammer
"The world until recently believed that US-China decoupling was on the way. It turns out that most countries are now scrambling to de-risk from America." My column.
as.ft.com/r/83099001-d...
as.ft.com/r/83099001-d...
How to de-risk from America
[FREE TO READ] There is no precedent of a dominant power abandoning its primacy, as Trump is doing
as.ft.com
January 13, 2026 at 12:05 PM
"The world until recently believed that US-China decoupling was on the way. It turns out that most countries are now scrambling to de-risk from America." My column.
as.ft.com/r/83099001-d...
as.ft.com/r/83099001-d...
Nothing exposes the hollowness of the free speech rhetoric like defending AI-generated child sexual abuse material under such
www.politico.eu/article/us-s...
www.politico.eu/article/us-s...
US State Department threatens UK over probe into Elon Musk’s X
Official Sarah B. Rogers said “nothing is off the table” if X is banned in the U.K.
www.politico.eu
January 13, 2026 at 12:43 PM
Nothing exposes the hollowness of the free speech rhetoric like defending AI-generated child sexual abuse material under such
www.politico.eu/article/us-s...
www.politico.eu/article/us-s...
a true G
Video message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KckG...
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KckG...
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
Statement by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell
YouTube video by Federal Reserve
www.youtube.com
January 12, 2026 at 9:45 AM
a true G
Reposted by Arthur Leichthammer
New: EU Commission has issued guidance for Chinese EV exporters on what is acceptable in price undertaking offers. Comes after VW Anhui made a deal of its own to escape tariffs
Includes minimum import price, sales channels, cross-compensation and future investments in the EU
Includes minimum import price, sales channels, cross-compensation and future investments in the EU
January 12, 2026 at 9:07 AM
New: EU Commission has issued guidance for Chinese EV exporters on what is acceptable in price undertaking offers. Comes after VW Anhui made a deal of its own to escape tariffs
Includes minimum import price, sales channels, cross-compensation and future investments in the EU
Includes minimum import price, sales channels, cross-compensation and future investments in the EU
Halle-freaking-lujah
Now hoping this momentum can be doubled down on with a swift conclusion of the India FTA and that the budget moves needed don’t foreshadow further cuts to the flexibility of the next MFF
www.politico.eu/article/eu-c...
Now hoping this momentum can be doubled down on with a swift conclusion of the India FTA and that the budget moves needed don’t foreshadow further cuts to the flexibility of the next MFF
www.politico.eu/article/eu-c...
EU countries approve Mercosur trade deal after 25 years of talks
Latin America trade accord wins the required qualified majority, even as France, Poland, Austria, Ireland and Hungary express their opposition.
www.politico.eu
January 9, 2026 at 12:09 PM
Halle-freaking-lujah
Now hoping this momentum can be doubled down on with a swift conclusion of the India FTA and that the budget moves needed don’t foreshadow further cuts to the flexibility of the next MFF
www.politico.eu/article/eu-c...
Now hoping this momentum can be doubled down on with a swift conclusion of the India FTA and that the budget moves needed don’t foreshadow further cuts to the flexibility of the next MFF
www.politico.eu/article/eu-c...
Reposted by Arthur Leichthammer
EU citizens - especially those in Greenland - deserve a clear answer to the question of how EU leaders would react to attempts of the US to annex Greenland. Will there be a clear political and economic response? Or is it also going to be a "complex situation" to be "closely monitored"?
January 4, 2026 at 9:52 AM
EU citizens - especially those in Greenland - deserve a clear answer to the question of how EU leaders would react to attempts of the US to annex Greenland. Will there be a clear political and economic response? Or is it also going to be a "complex situation" to be "closely monitored"?
Reposted by Arthur Leichthammer
Required reading for those European capitals that are still in denial. As a recent Rhodium note cited by the FT stresses, a weak renminbi, persistent deflation and excess capacity in China will erode the bite of conventional trade defence tools. New thinking is needed
www.ft.com/content/079f...
www.ft.com/content/079f...
Why China is doubling down on its export-led growth model
The country plans to reinforce its dominance of global manufacturing, despite persistent deflation at home and rising tensions abroad
www.ft.com
January 2, 2026 at 6:31 AM
Required reading for those European capitals that are still in denial. As a recent Rhodium note cited by the FT stresses, a weak renminbi, persistent deflation and excess capacity in China will erode the bite of conventional trade defence tools. New thinking is needed
www.ft.com/content/079f...
www.ft.com/content/079f...
Reposted by Arthur Leichthammer
End of year reflections on EU climate policy: it’s really not looking good for the Green Deal.
@jannikjansen.bsky.social and I wrote a short piece on why we're far from "staying the course" - and why that's a strategic mistake for Europe (1/12)
tinyurl.com/jdc-green-deal
@jannikjansen.bsky.social and I wrote a short piece on why we're far from "staying the course" - and why that's a strategic mistake for Europe (1/12)
tinyurl.com/jdc-green-deal
Europe is hollowing out its Green Deal, leaving a vacuum of political
www.delorscentre.eu
December 19, 2025 at 3:24 PM
End of year reflections on EU climate policy: it’s really not looking good for the Green Deal.
@jannikjansen.bsky.social and I wrote a short piece on why we're far from "staying the course" - and why that's a strategic mistake for Europe (1/12)
tinyurl.com/jdc-green-deal
@jannikjansen.bsky.social and I wrote a short piece on why we're far from "staying the course" - and why that's a strategic mistake for Europe (1/12)
tinyurl.com/jdc-green-deal
Reposted by Arthur Leichthammer
My letter in the Economist pushes back on its take on Europe and the second China shock.
The Economist lays out the profound pressure China is putting on EU manufacturing, but then proceeds to advocate the EU give up and switch to services à la the UK. That feels thin.
Pleased they published it.
The Economist lays out the profound pressure China is putting on EU manufacturing, but then proceeds to advocate the EU give up and switch to services à la the UK. That feels thin.
Pleased they published it.
December 19, 2025 at 2:34 PM
My letter in the Economist pushes back on its take on Europe and the second China shock.
The Economist lays out the profound pressure China is putting on EU manufacturing, but then proceeds to advocate the EU give up and switch to services à la the UK. That feels thin.
Pleased they published it.
The Economist lays out the profound pressure China is putting on EU manufacturing, but then proceeds to advocate the EU give up and switch to services à la the UK. That feels thin.
Pleased they published it.
Reposted by Arthur Leichthammer
Couldn't agree more.
Would add that I don't think this will happen until there is one person inside Commission who thinks about this 24/7 and can take people/organisations to task when they're dragging their feet.
We need somebody to own the issue/portfolio
Would add that I don't think this will happen until there is one person inside Commission who thinks about this 24/7 and can take people/organisations to task when they're dragging their feet.
We need somebody to own the issue/portfolio
4/ I argue that a comprehensive de-risking strategy needs to build on the advances of ReSourceEU and must: consolidate fragmented funding, anchor long-term demand (starting with defence), address refining chokepoints, and turn partnerships into bankable supply.
December 19, 2025 at 1:50 PM
Couldn't agree more.
Would add that I don't think this will happen until there is one person inside Commission who thinks about this 24/7 and can take people/organisations to task when they're dragging their feet.
We need somebody to own the issue/portfolio
Would add that I don't think this will happen until there is one person inside Commission who thinks about this 24/7 and can take people/organisations to task when they're dragging their feet.
We need somebody to own the issue/portfolio
1/ This year revealed how the EU's critical raw materials dependence has become an economic security vulnerability. ReSourceEU is the EU’s most serious attempt yet to remedy this. To end the year, I dive into what it does and whether it can shift the trajectory: www.delorscentre.eu/en/publicati...
The EU's critical raw materials predicament: ReSourceEU to the Rescue?
The EU’s dependence on highly concentrated critical raw material (CRM) supply chains, above all on China, has emerged as a central economic security vulnerability.
www.delorscentre.eu
December 19, 2025 at 1:26 PM
1/ This year revealed how the EU's critical raw materials dependence has become an economic security vulnerability. ReSourceEU is the EU’s most serious attempt yet to remedy this. To end the year, I dive into what it does and whether it can shift the trajectory: www.delorscentre.eu/en/publicati...
Often I like the EU, sometimes it drives me mad (or was it the other way around)?
www.politico.eu/article/merc...
www.politico.eu/article/merc...
Mercosur signing delayed until January, von der Leyen tells leaders
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni requested postponement of the signature to reassure farmers.
www.politico.eu
December 18, 2025 at 10:46 PM
Often I like the EU, sometimes it drives me mad (or was it the other way around)?
www.politico.eu/article/merc...
www.politico.eu/article/merc...
Reposted by Arthur Leichthammer
The proposed "28th Regime" is hoped to remove bureaucratic, legal, and financial hurdles that hold back small, innovative EU companies.
However, crucial questions remain wide open. In my new policy brief, I analyse the main options and relevant trade-offs.
1/🧵
www.delorscentre.eu/en/publicati...
However, crucial questions remain wide open. In my new policy brief, I analyse the main options and relevant trade-offs.
1/🧵
www.delorscentre.eu/en/publicati...
Regime change instead of business as usual: A pan-European corporate law to unlock cross-border
www.delorscentre.eu
December 18, 2025 at 3:00 PM
The proposed "28th Regime" is hoped to remove bureaucratic, legal, and financial hurdles that hold back small, innovative EU companies.
However, crucial questions remain wide open. In my new policy brief, I analyse the main options and relevant trade-offs.
1/🧵
www.delorscentre.eu/en/publicati...
However, crucial questions remain wide open. In my new policy brief, I analyse the main options and relevant trade-offs.
1/🧵
www.delorscentre.eu/en/publicati...
Reposted by Arthur Leichthammer
EU D-Day for the Ukraine loan.
In a new piece, Stephen and I analyse the legal risks (minimal), how liqiduity risks are covered and the guarantees would work, and how to plug holes on member-state defections.
In short: it works and there is no alternative (TINA).
www.cer.eu/insights/ukr...
In a new piece, Stephen and I analyse the legal risks (minimal), how liqiduity risks are covered and the guarantees would work, and how to plug holes on member-state defections.
In short: it works and there is no alternative (TINA).
www.cer.eu/insights/ukr...
The Ukraine Reparations Loan: How to fix Europe's financial plumbing
As US support for Ukraine vanishes, Europe must overcome Belgian opposition and improvise fiscally to provide Kyiv with €210 billion.
www.cer.eu
December 18, 2025 at 12:47 PM
EU D-Day for the Ukraine loan.
In a new piece, Stephen and I analyse the legal risks (minimal), how liqiduity risks are covered and the guarantees would work, and how to plug holes on member-state defections.
In short: it works and there is no alternative (TINA).
www.cer.eu/insights/ukr...
In a new piece, Stephen and I analyse the legal risks (minimal), how liqiduity risks are covered and the guarantees would work, and how to plug holes on member-state defections.
In short: it works and there is no alternative (TINA).
www.cer.eu/insights/ukr...