Aeimit Lakdawala
@aeimit.bsky.social
Economist @ Wake Forest
https://aeimit.weebly.com/
https://aeimit.weebly.com/
Reposted by Aeimit Lakdawala
🎉 Congratulations to our Fed Challenge team on advancing to the National Semi-Finals for the 3rd consecutive year!
Huge thanks to Prof. @aeimit.bsky.social for your outstanding mentorship! 📈🏆
Huge thanks to Prof. @aeimit.bsky.social for your outstanding mentorship! 📈🏆
October 31, 2025 at 11:52 PM
🎉 Congratulations to our Fed Challenge team on advancing to the National Semi-Finals for the 3rd consecutive year!
Huge thanks to Prof. @aeimit.bsky.social for your outstanding mentorship! 📈🏆
Huge thanks to Prof. @aeimit.bsky.social for your outstanding mentorship! 📈🏆
Even holds for professional economists. bsky.app/profile/aeim...
Partisanship is the ultimate brainrot virus
We were lucky enough to have our YouGov/The Economist poll in field when the US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities. You can see the partisan realignment in real time
June 28, 2025 at 12:05 PM
Even holds for professional economists. bsky.app/profile/aeim...
NEW PAPER: We know household expectations show a strong partisan bias, but do professional economists let politics cloud their forecasts too? Surprisingly, we find yes!
Republican forecasters predict ~0.4 pp higher GDP growth when Republicans hold the presidency vs Democratic forecasters. #EconSky
Republican forecasters predict ~0.4 pp higher GDP growth when Republicans hold the presidency vs Democratic forecasters. #EconSky
June 26, 2025 at 6:56 PM
NEW PAPER: We know household expectations show a strong partisan bias, but do professional economists let politics cloud their forecasts too? Surprisingly, we find yes!
Republican forecasters predict ~0.4 pp higher GDP growth when Republicans hold the presidency vs Democratic forecasters. #EconSky
Republican forecasters predict ~0.4 pp higher GDP growth when Republicans hold the presidency vs Democratic forecasters. #EconSky
You know things are real bad when Jason Furman starts getting spicy!
If these tariffs stay in effect for the rest of the year the chances of recession are 104%.
April 9, 2025 at 12:22 PM
You know things are real bad when Jason Furman starts getting spicy!
10 year Treasury at 4.35% (up from 3.9% just a couple of days ago). At the same time, expectations for fed funds rate at the end of 2025 have gone down from ~3.6% a week ago to ~3.3%
April 9, 2025 at 2:53 AM
10 year Treasury at 4.35% (up from 3.9% just a couple of days ago). At the same time, expectations for fed funds rate at the end of 2025 have gone down from ~3.6% a week ago to ~3.3%
10 year Treasury back below 4%
April 4, 2025 at 1:11 PM
10 year Treasury back below 4%
Biggest decline in GDPNow in a short time that I can recall (excl. covid). Estimate now is for a 1.5% fall(!) in GDP in Q1-2025
February 28, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Biggest decline in GDPNow in a short time that I can recall (excl. covid). Estimate now is for a 1.5% fall(!) in GDP in Q1-2025
100% agree with this. Empirical papers especially are typically messy. It’s ok if all the robustness tests do not work out perfectly. As a referee I often request authors to include “negative” robustness results. But as an author when I have tried this myself it has not been easy to publish.
In economics, editors, referees, and authors often behave as if a published paper should reflect some kind of authoritative consensus.
As a result, valuable debate happens in secret, and the resulting paper is an opaque compromise with anonymous co-authors called referees.
1/
As a result, valuable debate happens in secret, and the resulting paper is an opaque compromise with anonymous co-authors called referees.
1/
December 24, 2024 at 5:29 PM
100% agree with this. Empirical papers especially are typically messy. It’s ok if all the robustness tests do not work out perfectly. As a referee I often request authors to include “negative” robustness results. But as an author when I have tried this myself it has not been easy to publish.
@novosad.bsky.social would love to hear your thoughts on this.
Late (but also early, bc I'm at the airport) to this discussion about why Silicon Valley turned right. I appreciate Henry's discussion of ideologies, but I think a lot of it boils down to a simple thing (with his story): the pettiness of plutocrats 1/ www.programmablemutter.com/p/why-did-si...
Why did Silicon Valley turn right?
The "pounded progressive ally" thesis has limits
www.programmablemutter.com
December 5, 2024 at 11:32 AM
@novosad.bsky.social would love to hear your thoughts on this.
December 2, 2024 at 1:42 AM
Powell’s Q&A moving odds of Dec cut lower. At less than 60% now.
November 14, 2024 at 8:23 PM
Powell’s Q&A moving odds of Dec cut lower. At less than 60% now.
Reposted by Aeimit Lakdawala
Last Friday, Dirk Krueger from UPenn for presenting “Shaping Inequality and Intergenerational Persistence of Poverty: Free College or Better Schools” at our seminar series!
November 7, 2024 at 3:26 PM
Last Friday, Dirk Krueger from UPenn for presenting “Shaping Inequality and Intergenerational Persistence of Poverty: Free College or Better Schools” at our seminar series!
Reposted by Aeimit Lakdawala
Excited to share that our amazing EconDeacons are one of 18 teams moving forward to the National College Fed Challenge semi-finals! Best of luck in the next round—we’re cheering you on every step of the way! 🌟💪 #CollegeFedChallenge
October 27, 2024 at 3:07 PM
Excited to share that our amazing EconDeacons are one of 18 teams moving forward to the National College Fed Challenge semi-finals! Best of luck in the next round—we’re cheering you on every step of the way! 🌟💪 #CollegeFedChallenge
While we await the FOMC decision, check out our new research on how monetary policy affects inflation differentially across age and racial groups. Implications for policy effectiveness and inequality. Paper here: tinyurl.com/a53fmpnc
September 18, 2024 at 5:51 PM
While we await the FOMC decision, check out our new research on how monetary policy affects inflation differentially across age and racial groups. Implications for policy effectiveness and inequality. Paper here: tinyurl.com/a53fmpnc
Reposted by Aeimit Lakdawala
📈Our Empirical Macro Workshop is coming on October 4th! We’re thrilled to host top economists from Duke, Maryland, Boston Fed, UCSD, and more. Join us for cutting-edge research and lively discussions. Interested in attending? Email lakdawa@wfu.edu
@aeimit.bsky.social
@aeimit.bsky.social
September 17, 2024 at 3:06 PM
📈Our Empirical Macro Workshop is coming on October 4th! We’re thrilled to host top economists from Duke, Maryland, Boston Fed, UCSD, and more. Join us for cutting-edge research and lively discussions. Interested in attending? Email lakdawa@wfu.edu
@aeimit.bsky.social
@aeimit.bsky.social