(3/5) The partisan bias is asymmetric: appearing primarily under Republican presidents.

Bias also comes at the cost of forecast accuracy. Republican affiliated forecasters make relatively larger forecast errors when there is a Republican president.

10 year Treasury at 4.35% (up from 3.9% just a couple of days ago). At the same time, expectations for fed funds rate at the end of 2025 have gone down from ~3.6% a week ago to ~3.3%

10 year Treasury back below 4%

down to almost -3% now , but again seems to be over-reaction to early data.

Biggest decline in GDPNow in a short time that I can recall (excl. covid). Estimate now is for a 1.5% fall(!) in GDP in Q1-2025

Powell’s Q&A moving odds of Dec cut lower. At less than 60% now.

Claude got it wrong on the first attempt too. But when I just said "That is incorrect" without giving it the right answer, it came up with the right answer

2) Young people experience larger declines in their group-specific CPIs following contractionary monetary policy shocks compared to older individuals.

We use newly developed distributional CPI by
Xavier Jaravel. Two main results: 1) We find variation in inflation responses across racial groups. Prices faced by Black and Native Americans fall more than overall CPI after a policy tightening