(5/5) Paper available here: aeimit.weebly.com/uploads/2/5/...

Co-authored with:

Benjamin Kay (Fed Board) sites.google.com/site/benjami...
&
Jane Ryngaert (Notre Dame) janeryngaert.github.io#!/home

(4/5) Bias is specific to GDP growth forecasts (not inflation/unemployment/rates). Why only GDP? It's harder to predict. When data is clear, politics doesn't matter. When there is uncertainty, partisan beliefs creep in.

Different beliefs about how well tax cuts work is important driver of bias

(3/5) The partisan bias is asymmetric: appearing primarily under Republican presidents.

Bias also comes at the cost of forecast accuracy. Republican affiliated forecasters make relatively larger forecast errors when there is a Republican president.

(2/5) We matched Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey participants to their political affiliations using publicly available data (voter rolls, donations, partisan employment). The consensus forecasts from WSJ survey are similar to commonly used (but anonymous) SPF and Blue Chip.

Interested!

Impressive!

Not completely disagreeing with you here. Just think it’s going to be too hard for a moderate like Shapiro to get folks excited.

Personally I would prefer someone like Ezra Klein but we know that’s not happening. Given the constraints of the political system I would much rather see AOC than Shapiro, Whitmer etc…

There will likely be anti-elite backlash from a lot of the Trump policies and she is well positioned to take advantage of it. My opinion is that there is a lot of appeal to populist candidate that runs on “make the wealthy pay their fair share” on both sides of the aisle.

I think she is the most “ authentic “ candidate the dems can put forward really, And I think that seems to matter a lot.

FT piece on this: www.ft.com/content/e8b5...

The rise in 10y appears to be due to market microstructure" or plumbing issues related to the basis trade. Will be interesting to see if 10y yields move lower once these are resolved (assuming fed funds expectations stay low).

down to almost -3% now , but again seems to be over-reaction to early data.

Yes, was just being facetious. Although won’t be surprised if the “doge in dsge” title is actually used.

Seems to be related to trade data and surge in imports.

seasonality issues likely to be important here. Some evidence of slowdown in recent data but nothing of this magnitude.

You should let us know here which parts you agree/disagree with.