Adam Carlson
@admcrlsn.bsky.social
Founding Partner of Zenith Research. Spreadsheets help me relax. Views are my own.
Democrats have now flipped Miami mayor (first time a Democrat has won it since 1998) and a Trump +12 Georgia state House district
Democrats have outperformed Harris’ 2024 margin by double digits in 4/4 races so far tonight, with an avg. overperformance of 17.5 points
Buckle up.
Democrats have outperformed Harris’ 2024 margin by double digits in 4/4 races so far tonight, with an avg. overperformance of 17.5 points
Buckle up.
December 10, 2025 at 2:14 AM
Democrats have now flipped Miami mayor (first time a Democrat has won it since 1998) and a Trump +12 Georgia state House district
Democrats have outperformed Harris’ 2024 margin by double digits in 4/4 races so far tonight, with an avg. overperformance of 17.5 points
Buckle up.
Democrats have outperformed Harris’ 2024 margin by double digits in 4/4 races so far tonight, with an avg. overperformance of 17.5 points
Buckle up.
Pearl clutch if you must, but if we’re disqualifying millennial & Gen Z candidates for posting dumb shit on social media when they were younger we’re not gonna have anyone left to run in a few cycles.
He’s disavowed them, we’ll see how much voters care.
I’m sticking with Graham.
He’s disavowed them, we’ll see how much voters care.
I’m sticking with Graham.
A Marine veteran turned oyster farmer who is now a rising Democratic Senate candidate once called himself a “communist,” dismissed “all” police as bastards, and said rural White Americans “actually are” racist and stupid, according to deleted social media posts seen by CNN. https://cnn.it/47sXon6
‘I got older and became a communist': Deleted posts show Maine Senate hopeful's raw views on politics, war, and police | CNN Politics
Graham Platner, a Marine veteran turned oyster farmer, now disavows posts he made years ago, saying they came from a time when he felt disillusioned and angry and expressed those emotions online.
www.cnn.com
October 16, 2025 at 1:43 PM
Pearl clutch if you must, but if we’re disqualifying millennial & Gen Z candidates for posting dumb shit on social media when they were younger we’re not gonna have anyone left to run in a few cycles.
He’s disavowed them, we’ll see how much voters care.
I’m sticking with Graham.
He’s disavowed them, we’ll see how much voters care.
I’m sticking with Graham.
Reposted by Adam Carlson
3 weeks to go until Election Day 2025 and wanted to share a really cool Election Night chart that my pal @admcrlsn.bsky.social worked on. He did one of these last fall & I suggested he do one again. So here you go!
Almost to the finish line folks! ✊
Almost to the finish line folks! ✊
October 14, 2025 at 12:31 PM
3 weeks to go until Election Day 2025 and wanted to share a really cool Election Night chart that my pal @admcrlsn.bsky.social worked on. He did one of these last fall & I suggested he do one again. So here you go!
Almost to the finish line folks! ✊
Almost to the finish line folks! ✊
Reposted by Adam Carlson
NEW: Democratic oyster farmer Graham Platner is the candidate best positioned to defeat Susan Collins in Maine's Senate race, according to a poll of likely voters conducted by Zenith Research for More Perfect Union.
Poll: Platner Best Positioned Maine Dem to Defeat Susan Collins
After respondents were shown short biographies for both candidates, Graham Platner leads Sen. Susan Collins by 14 points, while Gov. Janet Mills leads Collins by 8 points.
substack.perfectunion.us
October 10, 2025 at 10:21 PM
NEW: Democratic oyster farmer Graham Platner is the candidate best positioned to defeat Susan Collins in Maine's Senate race, according to a poll of likely voters conducted by Zenith Research for More Perfect Union.
Lastly, Eric Adams’ (and Jim Walden’s) name will remain on the ballot.
Absentee and early mail ballots started going out in the mail over a week ago.
So Cuomo’s people will need to do some sort of public education campaign to NOT to vote for Adams for the low engagement voters.
Absentee and early mail ballots started going out in the mail over a week ago.
So Cuomo’s people will need to do some sort of public education campaign to NOT to vote for Adams for the low engagement voters.
September 28, 2025 at 6:00 PM
Lastly, Eric Adams’ (and Jim Walden’s) name will remain on the ballot.
Absentee and early mail ballots started going out in the mail over a week ago.
So Cuomo’s people will need to do some sort of public education campaign to NOT to vote for Adams for the low engagement voters.
Absentee and early mail ballots started going out in the mail over a week ago.
So Cuomo’s people will need to do some sort of public education campaign to NOT to vote for Adams for the low engagement voters.
So the question for them becomes — does my disdain of Cuomo outweigh my fear of a Mamdani mayoralty?
Or maybe I just like Sliwa and want to vote for him even knowing he has no path to victory?
Or maybe I just like Sliwa and want to vote for him even knowing he has no path to victory?
September 28, 2025 at 6:00 PM
So the question for them becomes — does my disdain of Cuomo outweigh my fear of a Mamdani mayoralty?
Or maybe I just like Sliwa and want to vote for him even knowing he has no path to victory?
Or maybe I just like Sliwa and want to vote for him even knowing he has no path to victory?
But a lot of Rs simply don’t like Cuomo.
Despite some chicanery with the IDC, he signed a lot of progressive legislation when he was governor (gun control, gay marriage, eliminating most cash bail, etc).
And many Rs still resent his handling of COVID (vaccines, lockdowns, etc).
Despite some chicanery with the IDC, he signed a lot of progressive legislation when he was governor (gun control, gay marriage, eliminating most cash bail, etc).
And many Rs still resent his handling of COVID (vaccines, lockdowns, etc).
September 28, 2025 at 6:00 PM
But a lot of Rs simply don’t like Cuomo.
Despite some chicanery with the IDC, he signed a lot of progressive legislation when he was governor (gun control, gay marriage, eliminating most cash bail, etc).
And many Rs still resent his handling of COVID (vaccines, lockdowns, etc).
Despite some chicanery with the IDC, he signed a lot of progressive legislation when he was governor (gun control, gay marriage, eliminating most cash bail, etc).
And many Rs still resent his handling of COVID (vaccines, lockdowns, etc).
Sliwa is still very popular among Republicans, conservatives, Trump voters & Staten Islanders
Polls in the coming weeks will tell us if that support starts to collapse & shift toward Cuomo (i.e. if Sliwa voters start to think of this is a two-person race & want to stop Mamdani)
Polls in the coming weeks will tell us if that support starts to collapse & shift toward Cuomo (i.e. if Sliwa voters start to think of this is a two-person race & want to stop Mamdani)
September 28, 2025 at 6:00 PM
Sliwa is still very popular among Republicans, conservatives, Trump voters & Staten Islanders
Polls in the coming weeks will tell us if that support starts to collapse & shift toward Cuomo (i.e. if Sliwa voters start to think of this is a two-person race & want to stop Mamdani)
Polls in the coming weeks will tell us if that support starts to collapse & shift toward Cuomo (i.e. if Sliwa voters start to think of this is a two-person race & want to stop Mamdani)
With Sliwa all but certain to stay in the race (he said he turned down seven-figure offers to drop out), Cuomo’s best strategy moving forward is to convince Sliwa voters that they are wasting their vote — and essentially helping Mamdani — if they vote for Sliwa instead of Cuomo.
September 28, 2025 at 6:00 PM
With Sliwa all but certain to stay in the race (he said he turned down seven-figure offers to drop out), Cuomo’s best strategy moving forward is to convince Sliwa voters that they are wasting their vote — and essentially helping Mamdani — if they vote for Sliwa instead of Cuomo.
But more impactful than movement in the polls is money.
Cuomo’s people expect tens of millions of dollars to flow to his campaign/super PACs in the home stretch from anti-Mamdani donors
But Adams frequently cited fundraising troubles, so it’s unclear if that’ll come to fruition
Cuomo’s people expect tens of millions of dollars to flow to his campaign/super PACs in the home stretch from anti-Mamdani donors
But Adams frequently cited fundraising troubles, so it’s unclear if that’ll come to fruition
September 28, 2025 at 6:00 PM
But more impactful than movement in the polls is money.
Cuomo’s people expect tens of millions of dollars to flow to his campaign/super PACs in the home stretch from anti-Mamdani donors
But Adams frequently cited fundraising troubles, so it’s unclear if that’ll come to fruition
Cuomo’s people expect tens of millions of dollars to flow to his campaign/super PACs in the home stretch from anti-Mamdani donors
But Adams frequently cited fundraising troubles, so it’s unclear if that’ll come to fruition
Here are the polls from September for the full field and the three-way field.
The ones that are highlighted tested both scenarios.
Sliwa exiting the race was always going to be more impactful than Adams leaving the race, but Sliwa isn’t going anywhere.
The ones that are highlighted tested both scenarios.
Sliwa exiting the race was always going to be more impactful than Adams leaving the race, but Sliwa isn’t going anywhere.
September 28, 2025 at 6:00 PM
Here are the polls from September for the full field and the three-way field.
The ones that are highlighted tested both scenarios.
Sliwa exiting the race was always going to be more impactful than Adams leaving the race, but Sliwa isn’t going anywhere.
The ones that are highlighted tested both scenarios.
Sliwa exiting the race was always going to be more impactful than Adams leaving the race, but Sliwa isn’t going anywhere.
In the September polls that tested a full field & one with just Mamdani/Cuomo/Sliwa, here’s how Adams’ voters broke:
🟡 52% went to Cuomo
🔴 17% went to Sliwa
🔵 10% went to Mamdani
⚫️ 21% went to undecided
So Cuomo basically nets ~4 points, but he’s still down by ~15 points.
🟡 52% went to Cuomo
🔴 17% went to Sliwa
🔵 10% went to Mamdani
⚫️ 21% went to undecided
So Cuomo basically nets ~4 points, but he’s still down by ~15 points.
NEW YORK (AP) — New York City Mayor Eric Adams ends his reelection campaign.
September 28, 2025 at 6:00 PM
In the September polls that tested a full field & one with just Mamdani/Cuomo/Sliwa, here’s how Adams’ voters broke:
🟡 52% went to Cuomo
🔴 17% went to Sliwa
🔵 10% went to Mamdani
⚫️ 21% went to undecided
So Cuomo basically nets ~4 points, but he’s still down by ~15 points.
🟡 52% went to Cuomo
🔴 17% went to Sliwa
🔵 10% went to Mamdani
⚫️ 21% went to undecided
So Cuomo basically nets ~4 points, but he’s still down by ~15 points.
Reposted by Adam Carlson
I’ve seen a lot of coverage over a poll saying Dems are “too focused” on climate change and LGBTQ issue. But voters say the Republican Party is not focused enough on jobs and affordability — issues much more predictive of voting — and far too much on immigration.
open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...
open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...
Are Democrats "talking too much" about left-wing issues?
The data mostly do not justify the conclusions people are drawing
open.substack.com
September 25, 2025 at 3:08 PM
I’ve seen a lot of coverage over a poll saying Dems are “too focused” on climate change and LGBTQ issue. But voters say the Republican Party is not focused enough on jobs and affordability — issues much more predictive of voting — and far too much on immigration.
open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...
open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...
Very tough to run for third consecutive Democratic term in the statehouse, and Sherrill is not exactly a world beater of a candidate.
And to his credit, Ciattarelli has run a pretty disciplined campaign.
And to his credit, Ciattarelli has run a pretty disciplined campaign.
September 25, 2025 at 3:30 PM
Very tough to run for third consecutive Democratic term in the statehouse, and Sherrill is not exactly a world beater of a candidate.
And to his credit, Ciattarelli has run a pretty disciplined campaign.
And to his credit, Ciattarelli has run a pretty disciplined campaign.
Ciattrelli hasn’t cracked 43% in an independent poll
He has a path, but he’ll have to scratch and claw his way to adding any extra percentage points on his way to 50%
It’s doable, but it would require a major fumble by Sherrill down the home stretch give who the undecideds are
He has a path, but he’ll have to scratch and claw his way to adding any extra percentage points on his way to 50%
It’s doable, but it would require a major fumble by Sherrill down the home stretch give who the undecideds are
September 25, 2025 at 3:30 PM
Ciattrelli hasn’t cracked 43% in an independent poll
He has a path, but he’ll have to scratch and claw his way to adding any extra percentage points on his way to 50%
It’s doable, but it would require a major fumble by Sherrill down the home stretch give who the undecideds are
He has a path, but he’ll have to scratch and claw his way to adding any extra percentage points on his way to 50%
It’s doable, but it would require a major fumble by Sherrill down the home stretch give who the undecideds are
Reasons why this Emerson poll is tied:
— Murphy’s approval rating is -10
— Ciattarelli leads by 26 points among independents
Reasons why Sherrill is still favored:
— 72% of undecided voters are women
— 62% of undecideds are Harris voters
— 18% of Black voters are undecided
— Murphy’s approval rating is -10
— Ciattarelli leads by 26 points among independents
Reasons why Sherrill is still favored:
— 72% of undecided voters are women
— 62% of undecideds are Harris voters
— 18% of Black voters are undecided
New poll finds dead heat in NJ governor’s race newjerseymonitor.com/briefs/new-p...
New poll finds dead heat in NJ governor's race • New Jersey Monitor
Rep. Mikie Sherrill and former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli are in a statistical tie, according to an Emerson College Poll released Thursday.
newjerseymonitor.com
September 25, 2025 at 2:50 PM
Reasons why this Emerson poll is tied:
— Murphy’s approval rating is -10
— Ciattarelli leads by 26 points among independents
Reasons why Sherrill is still favored:
— 72% of undecided voters are women
— 62% of undecideds are Harris voters
— 18% of Black voters are undecided
— Murphy’s approval rating is -10
— Ciattarelli leads by 26 points among independents
Reasons why Sherrill is still favored:
— 72% of undecided voters are women
— 62% of undecideds are Harris voters
— 18% of Black voters are undecided
Thank you so much to @dwbeard.bsky.social, @davidnir.com & guest host @joesudbay.bsky.social for having me on!
Listen here:
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/0Mtu...
Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
Listen here:
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/0Mtu...
Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
Bluesky
y.bsky.social
September 25, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Thank you so much to @dwbeard.bsky.social, @davidnir.com & guest host @joesudbay.bsky.social for having me on!
Listen here:
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/0Mtu...
Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
Listen here:
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/0Mtu...
Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
I’ve been a huge fan of @thedownballot.bsky.social (and its previous iterations at Daily Kos Elections and as The Swing State Project) for nearly two decades.
So it was a huge honor to be interviewed on their podcast yesterday.
We talked polling philosophy, NYC, NJ, VA, Prop 50 & more.
So it was a huge honor to be interviewed on their podcast yesterday.
We talked polling philosophy, NYC, NJ, VA, Prop 50 & more.
September 25, 2025 at 2:42 PM
I’ve been a huge fan of @thedownballot.bsky.social (and its previous iterations at Daily Kos Elections and as The Swing State Project) for nearly two decades.
So it was a huge honor to be interviewed on their podcast yesterday.
We talked polling philosophy, NYC, NJ, VA, Prop 50 & more.
So it was a huge honor to be interviewed on their podcast yesterday.
We talked polling philosophy, NYC, NJ, VA, Prop 50 & more.
@joesudbay.bsky.social asked me to post here more, so I’m gonna try to
If you’re looking for a reason why Mamdani might overperform his polling and break 50%
www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...
www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...
September 25, 2025 at 12:05 AM
@joesudbay.bsky.social asked me to post here more, so I’m gonna try to
If you’re looking for a reason why Mamdani might overperform his polling and break 50%
www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...
www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...
September 24, 2025 at 11:40 PM
If you’re looking for a reason why Mamdani might overperform his polling and break 50%
www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...
www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...
Ayyy that’s my poll
Also in Zenith Research/Public Progress Solutions poll:
Mamdani has 43% of the Jewish vote, including 67% among younger Jewish voters aged 18-44.
Cuomo at 26%, and 33% among Conservative/Orthodox Jews.
Adams at 15% with Jews, at 27% with Con/Ortho.
Mamdani has 21% among Ortho.
(Sample 152 LV)
Mamdani has 43% of the Jewish vote, including 67% among younger Jewish voters aged 18-44.
Cuomo at 26%, and 33% among Conservative/Orthodox Jews.
Adams at 15% with Jews, at 27% with Con/Ortho.
Mamdani has 21% among Ortho.
(Sample 152 LV)
August 1, 2025 at 1:05 AM
Ayyy that’s my poll
Stay tuned for the release of a brand new, first of its kind, fully independent NYC mayor general election poll from Zenith Research (me) and Public Progress Solutions (Amit Singh Bagga) this afternoon.
More ways to cut the data of this race than you’ve seen in any previous poll.
More ways to cut the data of this race than you’ve seen in any previous poll.
July 29, 2025 at 5:09 PM
Stay tuned for the release of a brand new, first of its kind, fully independent NYC mayor general election poll from Zenith Research (me) and Public Progress Solutions (Amit Singh Bagga) this afternoon.
More ways to cut the data of this race than you’ve seen in any previous poll.
More ways to cut the data of this race than you’ve seen in any previous poll.
P.S. Keep your eyes peeled for some public releases, hopefully coming over the next few weeks.
July 8, 2025 at 1:36 AM
P.S. Keep your eyes peeled for some public releases, hopefully coming over the next few weeks.
So let's do things differently.
Let's challenge some assumptions.
Let's shake up some established norms.
Let's following the data wherever it leads.
Let's be transparent about our process and methodology.
And let's have some fun while we're doing it!
Let's challenge some assumptions.
Let's shake up some established norms.
Let's following the data wherever it leads.
Let's be transparent about our process and methodology.
And let's have some fun while we're doing it!
July 8, 2025 at 1:36 AM
So let's do things differently.
Let's challenge some assumptions.
Let's shake up some established norms.
Let's following the data wherever it leads.
Let's be transparent about our process and methodology.
And let's have some fun while we're doing it!
Let's challenge some assumptions.
Let's shake up some established norms.
Let's following the data wherever it leads.
Let's be transparent about our process and methodology.
And let's have some fun while we're doing it!
My goal with Zenith is to build something that’s constantly evolving with the world around us, steers clear of DC groupthink & is unafraid of ruffling some feathers
If you’re interested working together or want to learn more about us, check us out:
zenith-research.com
If you’re interested working together or want to learn more about us, check us out:
zenith-research.com
Zenith Research
zenith-research.com
July 8, 2025 at 1:36 AM
My goal with Zenith is to build something that’s constantly evolving with the world around us, steers clear of DC groupthink & is unafraid of ruffling some feathers
If you’re interested working together or want to learn more about us, check us out:
zenith-research.com
If you’re interested working together or want to learn more about us, check us out:
zenith-research.com