Adam Carlson
@admcrlsn.bsky.social
Founding Partner of Zenith Research. Spreadsheets help me relax. Views are my own.
Pearl clutch if you must, but if we’re disqualifying millennial & Gen Z candidates for posting dumb shit on social media when they were younger we’re not gonna have anyone left to run in a few cycles.
He’s disavowed them, we’ll see how much voters care.
I’m sticking with Graham.
He’s disavowed them, we’ll see how much voters care.
I’m sticking with Graham.
A Marine veteran turned oyster farmer who is now a rising Democratic Senate candidate once called himself a “communist,” dismissed “all” police as bastards, and said rural White Americans “actually are” racist and stupid, according to deleted social media posts seen by CNN. https://cnn.it/47sXon6
‘I got older and became a communist': Deleted posts show Maine Senate hopeful's raw views on politics, war, and police | CNN Politics
Graham Platner, a Marine veteran turned oyster farmer, now disavows posts he made years ago, saying they came from a time when he felt disillusioned and angry and expressed those emotions online.
www.cnn.com
October 16, 2025 at 1:43 PM
Pearl clutch if you must, but if we’re disqualifying millennial & Gen Z candidates for posting dumb shit on social media when they were younger we’re not gonna have anyone left to run in a few cycles.
He’s disavowed them, we’ll see how much voters care.
I’m sticking with Graham.
He’s disavowed them, we’ll see how much voters care.
I’m sticking with Graham.
Reposted by Adam Carlson
3 weeks to go until Election Day 2025 and wanted to share a really cool Election Night chart that my pal @admcrlsn.bsky.social worked on. He did one of these last fall & I suggested he do one again. So here you go!
Almost to the finish line folks! ✊
Almost to the finish line folks! ✊
October 14, 2025 at 12:31 PM
3 weeks to go until Election Day 2025 and wanted to share a really cool Election Night chart that my pal @admcrlsn.bsky.social worked on. He did one of these last fall & I suggested he do one again. So here you go!
Almost to the finish line folks! ✊
Almost to the finish line folks! ✊
Reposted by Adam Carlson
NEW: Democratic oyster farmer Graham Platner is the candidate best positioned to defeat Susan Collins in Maine's Senate race, according to a poll of likely voters conducted by Zenith Research for More Perfect Union.
Poll: Platner Best Positioned Maine Dem to Defeat Susan Collins
After respondents were shown short biographies for both candidates, Graham Platner leads Sen. Susan Collins by 14 points, while Gov. Janet Mills leads Collins by 8 points.
substack.perfectunion.us
October 10, 2025 at 10:21 PM
NEW: Democratic oyster farmer Graham Platner is the candidate best positioned to defeat Susan Collins in Maine's Senate race, according to a poll of likely voters conducted by Zenith Research for More Perfect Union.
In the September polls that tested a full field & one with just Mamdani/Cuomo/Sliwa, here’s how Adams’ voters broke:
🟡 52% went to Cuomo
🔴 17% went to Sliwa
🔵 10% went to Mamdani
⚫️ 21% went to undecided
So Cuomo basically nets ~4 points, but he’s still down by ~15 points.
🟡 52% went to Cuomo
🔴 17% went to Sliwa
🔵 10% went to Mamdani
⚫️ 21% went to undecided
So Cuomo basically nets ~4 points, but he’s still down by ~15 points.
NEW YORK (AP) — New York City Mayor Eric Adams ends his reelection campaign.
September 28, 2025 at 6:00 PM
In the September polls that tested a full field & one with just Mamdani/Cuomo/Sliwa, here’s how Adams’ voters broke:
🟡 52% went to Cuomo
🔴 17% went to Sliwa
🔵 10% went to Mamdani
⚫️ 21% went to undecided
So Cuomo basically nets ~4 points, but he’s still down by ~15 points.
🟡 52% went to Cuomo
🔴 17% went to Sliwa
🔵 10% went to Mamdani
⚫️ 21% went to undecided
So Cuomo basically nets ~4 points, but he’s still down by ~15 points.
Reposted by Adam Carlson
I’ve seen a lot of coverage over a poll saying Dems are “too focused” on climate change and LGBTQ issue. But voters say the Republican Party is not focused enough on jobs and affordability — issues much more predictive of voting — and far too much on immigration.
open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...
open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...
Are Democrats "talking too much" about left-wing issues?
The data mostly do not justify the conclusions people are drawing
open.substack.com
September 25, 2025 at 3:08 PM
I’ve seen a lot of coverage over a poll saying Dems are “too focused” on climate change and LGBTQ issue. But voters say the Republican Party is not focused enough on jobs and affordability — issues much more predictive of voting — and far too much on immigration.
open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...
open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...
Reasons why this Emerson poll is tied:
— Murphy’s approval rating is -10
— Ciattarelli leads by 26 points among independents
Reasons why Sherrill is still favored:
— 72% of undecided voters are women
— 62% of undecideds are Harris voters
— 18% of Black voters are undecided
— Murphy’s approval rating is -10
— Ciattarelli leads by 26 points among independents
Reasons why Sherrill is still favored:
— 72% of undecided voters are women
— 62% of undecideds are Harris voters
— 18% of Black voters are undecided
New poll finds dead heat in NJ governor’s race newjerseymonitor.com/briefs/new-p...
New poll finds dead heat in NJ governor's race • New Jersey Monitor
Rep. Mikie Sherrill and former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli are in a statistical tie, according to an Emerson College Poll released Thursday.
newjerseymonitor.com
September 25, 2025 at 2:50 PM
Reasons why this Emerson poll is tied:
— Murphy’s approval rating is -10
— Ciattarelli leads by 26 points among independents
Reasons why Sherrill is still favored:
— 72% of undecided voters are women
— 62% of undecideds are Harris voters
— 18% of Black voters are undecided
— Murphy’s approval rating is -10
— Ciattarelli leads by 26 points among independents
Reasons why Sherrill is still favored:
— 72% of undecided voters are women
— 62% of undecideds are Harris voters
— 18% of Black voters are undecided
I’ve been a huge fan of @thedownballot.bsky.social (and its previous iterations at Daily Kos Elections and as The Swing State Project) for nearly two decades.
So it was a huge honor to be interviewed on their podcast yesterday.
We talked polling philosophy, NYC, NJ, VA, Prop 50 & more.
So it was a huge honor to be interviewed on their podcast yesterday.
We talked polling philosophy, NYC, NJ, VA, Prop 50 & more.
September 25, 2025 at 2:42 PM
I’ve been a huge fan of @thedownballot.bsky.social (and its previous iterations at Daily Kos Elections and as The Swing State Project) for nearly two decades.
So it was a huge honor to be interviewed on their podcast yesterday.
We talked polling philosophy, NYC, NJ, VA, Prop 50 & more.
So it was a huge honor to be interviewed on their podcast yesterday.
We talked polling philosophy, NYC, NJ, VA, Prop 50 & more.
@joesudbay.bsky.social asked me to post here more, so I’m gonna try to
If you’re looking for a reason why Mamdani might overperform his polling and break 50%
www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...
www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...
September 25, 2025 at 12:05 AM
@joesudbay.bsky.social asked me to post here more, so I’m gonna try to
If you’re looking for a reason why Mamdani might overperform his polling and break 50%
www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...
www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...
September 24, 2025 at 11:40 PM
If you’re looking for a reason why Mamdani might overperform his polling and break 50%
www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...
www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...
Ayyy that’s my poll
Also in Zenith Research/Public Progress Solutions poll:
Mamdani has 43% of the Jewish vote, including 67% among younger Jewish voters aged 18-44.
Cuomo at 26%, and 33% among Conservative/Orthodox Jews.
Adams at 15% with Jews, at 27% with Con/Ortho.
Mamdani has 21% among Ortho.
(Sample 152 LV)
Mamdani has 43% of the Jewish vote, including 67% among younger Jewish voters aged 18-44.
Cuomo at 26%, and 33% among Conservative/Orthodox Jews.
Adams at 15% with Jews, at 27% with Con/Ortho.
Mamdani has 21% among Ortho.
(Sample 152 LV)
August 1, 2025 at 1:05 AM
Ayyy that’s my poll
Stay tuned for the release of a brand new, first of its kind, fully independent NYC mayor general election poll from Zenith Research (me) and Public Progress Solutions (Amit Singh Bagga) this afternoon.
More ways to cut the data of this race than you’ve seen in any previous poll.
More ways to cut the data of this race than you’ve seen in any previous poll.
July 29, 2025 at 5:09 PM
Stay tuned for the release of a brand new, first of its kind, fully independent NYC mayor general election poll from Zenith Research (me) and Public Progress Solutions (Amit Singh Bagga) this afternoon.
More ways to cut the data of this race than you’ve seen in any previous poll.
More ways to cut the data of this race than you’ve seen in any previous poll.
Some personal news — I am beyond excited to be formally launching my own polling firm, Zenith Research!
After over a dozen years working in the industry, I wanted to build something on my own — with a fresh, independent, methodologically rigorous & radically transparent approach.
After over a dozen years working in the industry, I wanted to build something on my own — with a fresh, independent, methodologically rigorous & radically transparent approach.
July 8, 2025 at 1:36 AM
Some personal news — I am beyond excited to be formally launching my own polling firm, Zenith Research!
After over a dozen years working in the industry, I wanted to build something on my own — with a fresh, independent, methodologically rigorous & radically transparent approach.
After over a dozen years working in the industry, I wanted to build something on my own — with a fresh, independent, methodologically rigorous & radically transparent approach.
Reposted by Adam Carlson
Someone out there has the chance to make an excellent hire right now:
Hi everyone — I was laid off from my job on Friday
If you know of any open opportunities in polling or market research (full-time or contracts/consulting), please let me know. I have 12 years of experience in the industry
If you don’t, please consider reposting/sharing
Thanks!
If you know of any open opportunities in polling or market research (full-time or contracts/consulting), please let me know. I have 12 years of experience in the industry
If you don’t, please consider reposting/sharing
Thanks!
May 5, 2025 at 7:17 PM
Someone out there has the chance to make an excellent hire right now:
Hi everyone — I was laid off from my job on Friday
If you know of any open opportunities in polling or market research (full-time or contracts/consulting), please let me know. I have 12 years of experience in the industry
If you don’t, please consider reposting/sharing
Thanks!
If you know of any open opportunities in polling or market research (full-time or contracts/consulting), please let me know. I have 12 years of experience in the industry
If you don’t, please consider reposting/sharing
Thanks!
May 5, 2025 at 6:56 PM
Hi everyone — I was laid off from my job on Friday
If you know of any open opportunities in polling or market research (full-time or contracts/consulting), please let me know. I have 12 years of experience in the industry
If you don’t, please consider reposting/sharing
Thanks!
If you know of any open opportunities in polling or market research (full-time or contracts/consulting), please let me know. I have 12 years of experience in the industry
If you don’t, please consider reposting/sharing
Thanks!
Wild story in the WSJ.
It’s paywalled so I’ll screenshot some key excerpts below.
But basically it’s about how Mark Zuckerberg spent millions trying to suck up to Trump so Meta only had to pay $450M (instead of $30B that the FTC wanted) to settle an antitrust case against them.
It’s paywalled so I’ll screenshot some key excerpts below.
But basically it’s about how Mark Zuckerberg spent millions trying to suck up to Trump so Meta only had to pay $450M (instead of $30B that the FTC wanted) to settle an antitrust case against them.
April 16, 2025 at 3:41 AM
Wild story in the WSJ.
It’s paywalled so I’ll screenshot some key excerpts below.
But basically it’s about how Mark Zuckerberg spent millions trying to suck up to Trump so Meta only had to pay $450M (instead of $30B that the FTC wanted) to settle an antitrust case against them.
It’s paywalled so I’ll screenshot some key excerpts below.
But basically it’s about how Mark Zuckerberg spent millions trying to suck up to Trump so Meta only had to pay $450M (instead of $30B that the FTC wanted) to settle an antitrust case against them.
Fuck Chuck Schumer and anyone who stands with him
March 14, 2025 at 1:45 AM
Fuck Chuck Schumer and anyone who stands with him
And here's a crosstab aggregate of Trump's net job approval from national polls conducted during his second month in office
March 10, 2025 at 10:26 PM
And here's a crosstab aggregate of Trump's net job approval from national polls conducted during his second month in office
For the first time in his second term, Trump’s job approval rating among voters is net negative.
10-day unweighted rolling average:
• Feb 1 🟢 +8.6
• Feb 15 🟢 +5.3
• Mar 1 🟢 +1.3
• Mar 10 🔴 -0.2
10-day unweighted rolling average:
• Feb 1 🟢 +8.6
• Feb 15 🟢 +5.3
• Mar 1 🟢 +1.3
• Mar 10 🔴 -0.2
March 10, 2025 at 10:24 PM
For the first time in his second term, Trump’s job approval rating among voters is net negative.
10-day unweighted rolling average:
• Feb 1 🟢 +8.6
• Feb 15 🟢 +5.3
• Mar 1 🟢 +1.3
• Mar 10 🔴 -0.2
10-day unweighted rolling average:
• Feb 1 🟢 +8.6
• Feb 15 🟢 +5.3
• Mar 1 🟢 +1.3
• Mar 10 🔴 -0.2
I’m no expert but it seems like you want the opposite of this to happen?
March 10, 2025 at 5:12 PM
I’m no expert but it seems like you want the opposite of this to happen?
Reposted by Adam Carlson
Hey bluesky I’m looking for my next job covering politics and campaigns. If you have any leads lmk!!
March 10, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Hey bluesky I’m looking for my next job covering politics and campaigns. If you have any leads lmk!!
Twitter outage happened when this was at the top of my feed and now it’s frozen there.
Sometimes life is just so beautiful.
Sometimes life is just so beautiful.
March 10, 2025 at 5:03 PM
Twitter outage happened when this was at the top of my feed and now it’s frozen there.
Sometimes life is just so beautiful.
Sometimes life is just so beautiful.
I rarely post personal stuff, but our best friends lost their home yesterday in the LA wildfire
I’d be forever grateful if you could donate even a few dollars as they start picking up the pieces of their lives
And if you can’t donate, please repost ❤️
www.gofundme.com/f/help-sam-a...
I’d be forever grateful if you could donate even a few dollars as they start picking up the pieces of their lives
And if you can’t donate, please repost ❤️
www.gofundme.com/f/help-sam-a...
January 9, 2025 at 8:19 PM
I rarely post personal stuff, but our best friends lost their home yesterday in the LA wildfire
I’d be forever grateful if you could donate even a few dollars as they start picking up the pieces of their lives
And if you can’t donate, please repost ❤️
www.gofundme.com/f/help-sam-a...
I’d be forever grateful if you could donate even a few dollars as they start picking up the pieces of their lives
And if you can’t donate, please repost ❤️
www.gofundme.com/f/help-sam-a...
I know it’s against the informal code to be mean on here or whatever but H*rry E*nten really reminds me of an adult version of the annoying kid from Polar Express
December 7, 2024 at 7:50 PM
I know it’s against the informal code to be mean on here or whatever but H*rry E*nten really reminds me of an adult version of the annoying kid from Polar Express
CHICKEN COOP — WE NEVER LEFT
December 6, 2024 at 10:32 PM
CHICKEN COOP — WE NEVER LEFT