Lastly, Eric Adams’ (and Jim Walden’s) name will remain on the ballot.

Absentee and early mail ballots started going out in the mail over a week ago.

So Cuomo’s people will need to do some sort of public education campaign to NOT to vote for Adams for the low engagement voters.

So the question for them becomes — does my disdain of Cuomo outweigh my fear of a Mamdani mayoralty?

Or maybe I just like Sliwa and want to vote for him even knowing he has no path to victory?

But a lot of Rs simply don’t like Cuomo.

Despite some chicanery with the IDC, he signed a lot of progressive legislation when he was governor (gun control, gay marriage, eliminating most cash bail, etc).

And many Rs still resent his handling of COVID (vaccines, lockdowns, etc).

Sliwa is still very popular among Republicans, conservatives, Trump voters & Staten Islanders

Polls in the coming weeks will tell us if that support starts to collapse & shift toward Cuomo (i.e. if Sliwa voters start to think of this is a two-person race & want to stop Mamdani)

With Sliwa all but certain to stay in the race (he said he turned down seven-figure offers to drop out), Cuomo’s best strategy moving forward is to convince Sliwa voters that they are wasting their vote — and essentially helping Mamdani — if they vote for Sliwa instead of Cuomo.

But more impactful than movement in the polls is money.

Cuomo’s people expect tens of millions of dollars to flow to his campaign/super PACs in the home stretch from anti-Mamdani donors

But Adams frequently cited fundraising troubles, so it’s unclear if that’ll come to fruition

Here are the polls from September for the full field and the three-way field.

The ones that are highlighted tested both scenarios.

Sliwa exiting the race was always going to be more impactful than Adams leaving the race, but Sliwa isn’t going anywhere.

Very tough to run for third consecutive Democratic term in the statehouse, and Sherrill is not exactly a world beater of a candidate.

And to his credit, Ciattarelli has run a pretty disciplined campaign.

Ciattrelli hasn’t cracked 43% in an independent poll

He has a path, but he’ll have to scratch and claw his way to adding any extra percentage points on his way to 50%

It’s doable, but it would require a major fumble by Sherrill down the home stretch give who the undecideds are

Thank you so much to @dwbeard.bsky.social, @davidnir.com & guest host @joesudbay.bsky.social for having me on!

Listen here:

Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/0Mtu...

Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...

P.S. Keep your eyes peeled for some public releases, hopefully coming over the next few weeks.

So let's do things differently.

Let's challenge some assumptions.

Let's shake up some established norms.

Let's following the data wherever it leads.

Let's be transparent about our process and methodology.

And let's have some fun while we're doing it!

My goal with Zenith is to build something that’s constantly evolving with the world around us, steers clear of DC groupthink & is unafraid of ruffling some feathers

If you’re interested working together or want to learn more about us, check us out:

zenith-research.com