Robert Metcalfe

@rmetcalfe.bsky.social

20K followers 570 following 230 posts

Economist, Prof at Columbia University.

Chief Economist: Centre for Net Zero (Octopus Energy Group).

Co-editor: Journal of Public Economics.

1st gen, 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

https://www.rmetcalfe.net/

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Robert "Bob" Melancton Metcalfe is an American engineer and entrepreneur who contributed to the development of the internet in the 1970s. He co-invented Ethernet, co-founded 3Com, and formulated Metcalfe's law, which describes the effect of a telecommunications network. Metcalfe has also made several predictions which failed to come to pass, including forecasting the demise of the internet during the 1990s. .. more

Economics 32%

Engineering 17%

Posts Replies Media Videos

Reposted by Richard S.J. Tol, Robert Metcalfe

NBER @nber.org · 16d

AI can cut peak electricity demand at scale. A large natural field experiment shows AI-managed EV charging cuts peak load 42 percent and shifts usage to cleaner hours, from @rmetcalfe.bsky.social, Andrew Schein, Cohen R. Simpson, and Yixin Sun www.nber.org/papers/w34709

Robert Metcalfe @rmetcalfe.bsky.social · 21d

We’re very grateful to colleagues at the partner utility @octopus.energy for their work in delivery, and to many insightful commenters on earlier drafts.

www.nber.org/papers/w34709
Undated: www.rmetcalfe.net/_files/ugd/f...

Comments welcome!

AI in Charge: Large-Scale Experimental Evidence on Electric Vehicle Charging Demand

Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

www.nber.org

Robert Metcalfe @rmetcalfe.bsky.social · 21d

We developed a theoretical model showing that low override rates make AI-managed charging welfare-superior to alternatives, including real-time pricing. The trial confirmed this prediction: empirical behavior matched theory, given the very low override rate we observed.

Robert Metcalfe @rmetcalfe.bsky.social · 21d

Generalizability: cross-market evidence suggests this algorithm scales. Similar plug-in behavior and override patterns in the UK, US, Germany, and Spain imply that AI-managed tariffs can deliver welfare gains internationally.

Robert Metcalfe @rmetcalfe.bsky.social · 21d

Economic & environmental benefits were substantial. Households saved £343/year (~18%); full adoption could flatten the load duration curve. CO₂ abatement cost was extremely low given; subsidizing the tariff could generate infinite MVPF.

Robert Metcalfe @rmetcalfe.bsky.social · 21d

Peak demand fell sharply. IV estimates show a 42% reduction in peak-period EV charging, with energy shifted to overnight hours. Total consumption stayed constant. In other words, we’re seeing temporal load shifting, not increased use.

Robert Metcalfe @rmetcalfe.bsky.social · 21d

Once enrolled, adherence to the algorithm was high. Daily overrides were rare (~1%), and only 2.3% of total EV energy was consumed outside AI control. This low overriding is important for assessing the welfare impact of the tariff.

Robert Metcalfe @rmetcalfe.bsky.social · 21d

We randomized an encouragement to adopt the tariff. Even a simple email increased enrolment in the AI tariff by 3.4pp; £50/month incentives roughly doubled this. Compatibility constraints mean these estimates are likely lower bounds.

Robert Metcalfe @rmetcalfe.bsky.social · 21d

The AI does a lot under the hood, optimizing over various energy market signals subject to user preferences and behaviors (some of which need to be predicted, such as plug-in and plug-out).

Robert Metcalfe @rmetcalfe.bsky.social · 21d

It combines this with a simple time-of-use set-up – any AI managed charging is at the low rate. The simplicity here is that the consumer does not have to optimize over these prices—the AI algorithm will do so on their behalf.

Robert Metcalfe @rmetcalfe.bsky.social · 21d

We examined the adoption of an AI-managed EV charging tariff (called IO Go) run by Octopus Energy, the largest energy retailer in the UK. Customers set their preference. The AI manages charging within those preferences (overrides – “bumps” – are allowed).

Robert Metcalfe @rmetcalfe.bsky.social · 21d

AI management of home energy use is something people have been talking about for decades. Here’s Fred C Schweppe from MIT in 1980(!)

Robert Metcalfe @rmetcalfe.bsky.social · 21d

Mass EV adoption risks overwhelming electricity networks, increasing system costs and grid instability. You can see this in a graph of consumption profile of customers in our field trial before the trial started. EV customers’ consumption peaks during the system peak.

Reposted by Jonathan M. Gilligan

Robert Metcalfe @rmetcalfe.bsky.social · 21d

New @nber.org paper by myself, @the-scheining.bsky.social, Yixin Sun from @centrefornetzero.bsky.social, & Cohen Simpson. We study the largest field experiment on AI-managed EV charging, showing that it can reduce peak demand, lower costs, and cut emissions without disrupting household routines.

Robert Metcalfe @rmetcalfe.bsky.social · 28d

Simply awful.

www.nytimes.com/2026/01/12/c...

E.P.A. to Stop Considering Lives Saved When Setting Rules on Air Pollution

www.nytimes.com

Reposted by Paul Nightingale, Sabrina Wulff Pabilonia

Robert Metcalfe @rmetcalfe.bsky.social · Jan 10

The AEA has posted eight "Recent Developments" lectures exploring highly topical issues in economics, presented by the best scholars in the field:

www.aeaweb.org/conference/w...

Well worth a watch!

Reposted by John A. List

Robert Metcalfe @rmetcalfe.bsky.social · Jan 9

Excited to announce that this year's Advances with Field Experiments conference will take place at the University of Chicago on September 17-18, 2026.

@johnlist.bsky.social and I will send out a call for abstracts early in the Spring.

bfi.uchicago.edu/events/event...

@katymilkman.bsky.social

Reposted by Valerie Mueller

Robert Metcalfe @rmetcalfe.bsky.social · Jan 8

Very excited to join one of the best environmental economics workshops out there.

Sefi Roth @sjroth.bsky.social · Jan 8

📢 Call for Papers! The 9th Annual LSE/Imperial Workshop on Environmental Econ. will be held in London June 8-9
✅ Submissions by Feb 1
📄 Full papers only (no abstracts)
🎤 Keynote: Prof. @rmetcalfe.bsky.social

🔗 more details here: www.lse.ac.uk/geography-an...

9th Annual LSE/Imperial Workshop on Environmental Economics

Information about the LSE Department of Geography and Environment's Environmental Economics Workshop.

www.lse.ac.uk

Reposted by Richard S.J. Tol, Paul Lehmann, Robert Metcalfe , and 3 more Richard S.J. Tol, Paul Lehmann, Robert Metcalfe, Valerie Mueller, Aaron Sojourner, Ralf Martin

Sefi Roth @sjroth.bsky.social · Jan 8

9th Annual LSE/Imperial Workshop on Environmental Economics

Information about the LSE Department of Geography and Environment's Environmental Economics Workshop.

www.lse.ac.uk

Reposted by Robert Metcalfe

Trade Diversion (Jonathan Dingel) @tradediversion.bsky.social · Jan 2

I look forward to catching up with folks at the Columbia Economics #ASSA2026 reception on Saturday evening in Marriott Downtown, Room 407.

www.aeaweb.org/conference/2...

American Economic Association

www.aeaweb.org

Reposted by Richard S.J. Tol, Robert Metcalfe, Paul Nightingale

NBER @nber.org · Dec 28

A large UK field experiment—110,000 drivers, 60 percent of public chargers—found that cutting prices by 40 percent increased charging by 117 percent. Consumers respond fast, large grid benefits, from Bernard, Hackett, @rmetcalfe.bsky.social, Panzone, and Schein www.nber.org/papers/w34600

Reposted by Robert Metcalfe, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

Jon Mellon @jonmellon.bsky.social · Dec 28

I’ve seen some junior data scientists really rise to the challenge of AI and have bigger impacts than you could have expected of someone with that experience level. I’m cautiously optimistic for then in the next year or two

Reposted by Robert Metcalfe

Scott Lincicome @scottlincicome.bsky.social · Dec 22

New @nberpubs: "The Impact of Dynamic Prices on Electric Vehicle Public Charging Demand: Evidence from a Nationwide Natural Field Experiment" www.nber.org/papers/w34600
"Our findings suggest that dynamic pricing for public EV charging generated large consumer welfare gains."

Reposted by Robert Metcalfe

Jesse Anttila-Hughes @jessexjesse.bsky.social · Nov 25

Super excited to see Hannah's JMP in the Economist this week! She uses detailed data to show how firms pass the risk of weather-driven shift changes on to workers in food & bev / retail, & that minimum wages actual *worsen* that effect!

#econsky #climsky #climate #jmp #jmc #susdev

Reposted by Robert Metcalfe

Anna Stansbury @annastansbury.bsky.social · Nov 25

Hannah also finds a tradeoff between schedule unpredictability and wages: when the minimum wage is increased, scheduling unpredictability increases too.

Suggests another margin that firms are able to cut costs on when minimum wages increase.

(parallels with our work on workplace injuries).

Reposted by Robert Metcalfe

Anna Stansbury @annastansbury.bsky.social · Nov 25

2. Firms pass demand risk onto workers: Hannah shows that on bad-weather days (when fewer people come to buy things from these retail & hospitality businesses), there are more last-minute shift cancellations.

In most jobs, the firm bears the risk of demand shocks unless extreme (-> layoffs).

Reposted by Robert Metcalfe

Anna Stansbury @annastansbury.bsky.social · Nov 25

1. Schedule unpredictability means you don't work full time, but can't fill the other hours.

Avg hours worked per year in hospitality is 26, compared to 35-40 in most other industries.

But workers can't fill the spare hours with another job as they don't know when they'll be scheduled to work.

Figure shows average hours worked per week by industry. It is 25.8 in leisure and hospitality, compared to an average of 34.7 for the whole private sector.

Reposted by Dani Rodrik, Chris Hanretty

Robert Metcalfe @rmetcalfe.bsky.social · Nov 25

Check out Hannah awesome JMP on job schedule unpredictability and how minimum wage policy affects such unpredictability: hannahfarkas.github.io/files/The_Ec...

Reposted by Gernot Wagner, Robert Metcalfe

Hannah Farkas @hannah-farkas.bsky.social · Nov 25

Excited to see my JMP cited in the Economist—it highlights the tradeoffs workers could face with a higher minimum wage and suggests more worker protections like Fair Workweek laws could be important alongside minimum wage increases

www.economist.com/finance-and-...

Robert Metcalfe @rmetcalfe.bsky.social · Nov 19

Great podcast on indoor air pollution by @volts.wtf. If you’re interested in a field experiment with using real-time information on changing indoor air pollution, check out our paper: bsky.app/profile/rmet...

David Roberts @volts.wtf · Nov 19

Today on Volts: for years, I've wanted to do a podcast on indoor air quality, and I finally found the perfect guest! Dr. Lagoudas & I discuss indoor air pollutants, the policies and technologies that can control them, and the growing need to frame indoor air quality as a basic human right.

What's the deal with indoor air quality?

From CO2 monitors to better building codes, Dr. Georgia Lagoudas outlines how to clean up the spaces where we spend 90% of our lives.

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