Miles Kahler
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mileskahler.bsky.social
Miles Kahler
@mileskahler.bsky.social

Global politics and governance, contemporary and historical. American University SIS and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Gardening, travel, hiking. Opinions my own. Re-posts do not = endorsement.

Political science 47%
Economics 29%

This really is old-style gunboat diplomacy: impounding customs receipts was a familiar imperial strategy with formally "sovereign" governments.

Just when the EU needed to present a united front to the Trump administration, it falters. If the EU cannot cohere around a trade agreement, how will it respond effectively to US tariff threats?
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/21/u...
As Europe Tries to Diversify Trade, a Major Deal With South America Stumbles
www.nytimes.com

Let's see: substitute US for China, and the subtitle could be a quote from Mark Carney's Davos speech yesterday.
TODAY 2PM | China’s Weaponization of Trade

Join us for the book launch of @csis.org @geopolitics.csis.org @victordcha.bsky.social, Ellen Kim, and @andysaulim.com, where experts discuss China’s use of economic coercion.

➡️RSVP: www.csis.org/events/book-...

Hubris may precede a fall, as it does in tragedies, but hubris may be unnecessary. Spain in 17th c. or the USSR (and perhaps Athens) fall because of internal failure or disarray. That may be the lesson needed by the US at this moment. We cannot rely on others for an essential course correction.

Reposted by Miles Kahler

TODAY 2PM | China’s Weaponization of Trade

Join us for the book launch of @csis.org @geopolitics.csis.org @victordcha.bsky.social, Ellen Kim, and @andysaulim.com, where experts discuss China’s use of economic coercion.

➡️RSVP: www.csis.org/events/book-...

Excellent analysis of the Carney speech.

Charter of new Board of Peace is IO as country club: Membership by Trump's invitation; initiation fee of $1 billion in first year (or out after three);Trump can veto Board's decisions and appoint or remove members. Mar-a-Lago goes global, as a competitor to the UN.
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Broad mandate of Trump’s Board of Peace sets it up for rivalry with UN
Body was originally planned to oversee Gaza but charter’s expansive wording suggests it could mediate in other conflicts
giftarticle.ft.com

Why US manufacturing will not revive despite (or because of) Trump's tariffs. And why your next sofa or table will cost more. The view from North Carolina and China.

giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
The reality of trying to make US manufacturing great again
The fortunes of furniture makers in North Carolina and Foshan in China show the impact of Trump’s tariff regime
giftarticle.ft.com
This speech is truly remarkable: Havel's greengrocer and its implications for the fragility of the rule-based international order, the performance of sovereignty, sovereignty as hierarchy, economic integration as coercion and subordination, avoiding the dominance of both hegemons and hyperscalers...
Davos LIVE: Canadian PM Mark Carney speaks at World Economic Forum
YouTube video by Associated Press
www.youtube.com

Reposted by Miles Kahler

Some thoughts from me on Mark Carney’s important speech in Davos. youtu.be/Xj1VHwVgsAY?...
Analysis of Mark Carney’s Davos speech | CBC | 20 January 2026
YouTube video by rparis001
youtu.be

Just think of it as a branch of archeology.

The text about Norway and the Nobel Peace Prize should have been the clincher, but one "expert" or another will undoubtedly begin with "Trump has a point . . . "

Congratulations, Frieder!

A moment of your time from Greenland: if you can explain this convoluted governance mess for Gaza, Part 2, you may be in the running for a Nobel Peace Prize.
www.ft.com/content/e98e...
Donald Trump names Tony Blair, Jared Kushner and Marc Rowan to advise Gaza ‘Board of Peace’
US president will chair executive body that he says will guide reconstruction of war-ravaged enclave
www.ft.com

I am sure this will be normalized by one "expert" or another, but could you imagine this headline even two years ago?
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
US senators introduce bill to stop military from occupying Nato territories
Legislation would prevent American forces from using congressional funds to annex Greenland
giftarticle.ft.com

Of all the appalling pardons by Trump (and there are many), this must be the worst. A convicted narcotrafficking president leaves prison, thanks to Stone and Gaetz (with Silicon Valley investors in the background). Policy under Trump 2: have friends who can reach Trump.
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
How a Man Convicted of Running a Latin American Narco State Landed a Pardon
Former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández’s unusual network of Trump allies and MAGA influencers helped deliver an extraordinary pardon to him.
www.wsj.com

Thought this was a joke post from The Onion, but no, once-respected institute, now reaches new low in our emerging crony-capitalist state.Campaign for a Nobel Peace Prize continues. (If you think there is peace in the eastern DRC, read the latest from Amnesty or HRW.)
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/03/u...
Trump Renames Institute of Peace for Himself
www.nytimes.com

So much for restoring US manufacturing. US automobile sector contends with tariffs, which are "a mess on top of a mess." No surprise that small and medium enterprises are suffering the most.
on.ft.com/4nLta4u
‘This is existential’: Donald Trump’s tariffs drive US car sector into turmoil
Michigan’s ‘Big Three’ carmakers forecast a combined $7bn tariff-related hit to earnings in 2025
on.ft.com

US bailout of Argentina in question. Is a US promise to do "whatever it takes" credible from this administration? Especially with anger of US soybean interests over a bailout of one of its competitors. If additional IMF resources are required, will Europe and Japan go along?
on.ft.com/3KPh2kn
Argentine assets hit by fresh selling amid worries over US bailout
Peso, stocks and bonds all fall as investors fret over lack of details from Washington on rescue plan
on.ft.com
The We Are All DC march to protest against Trump admin’s takeover of DC is currently heading toward the White House:

Via @benjalvarez1.bsky.social
Check out the MASSIVE crowd in DC marching to the White House to protest the federal takeover of the city!

#FreeDC!

Reposted by Miles Kahler

We ought to think about #AI as a #humanrights issue.

💬 Sep. 16, I will be back in Toronto to give the Frank W. Woods lecture at the Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy.

Come join us! Registration and info here👇
munkschool.utoronto.ca/event/we-dat...

#bigdata #humanrights #wethedata
Please join us for the launch of our E&IA Roundtable: 'Global Governance in Hard Times.'

Presentations: Faude+Karlsrud; @yoramhaftel.bsky.social & @stephofmann.bsky.social; @ninareiners.bsky.social; Julia Morse; @mstephen.bsky.social.

Comments: @hbirk.bsky.social; @tsommerer.bsky.social.

Details:

Yet another way that citizens can push back against a presidential power grab in their city: serve on grand juries and refuse to indict.

www.nytimes.com/2025/08/27/u...
Prosecutors Fail to Secure Indictment Against Man Who Threw Sandwich at Federal Agent
www.nytimes.com
My Trade Secrets today. India's east Asian-style goods export model has taken a bit of a battering from Trump, and it's not entirely clear what will replace it.

Also, the UK brouhaha over age verification for online porn shows that deregulation is tougher than it looks.

www.ft.com/content/13dc...
India struggles to escape the Trump tariff trap
Narendra Modi’s push for the country to become a low-cost goods exporter has made it vulnerable
www.ft.com

Easy to miss, with Alaska and DC news, but the Trump admin has sided with autocratic petrostates to block a treaty on plastic pollution. One delegate described the US position as "more regressive than the Saudis."
www.ft.com/content/f808...
UN plastics treaty talks fail after US joins petrostates in blocking action
Delegates criticise role of Trump administration in siding with Saudi Arabia and other petrochemical producers
www.ft.com

Cat Stevens and the Pet People

Like other major cities, inequality is the core problem: highest per capita income ($78,479) but also a poverty rate above the national average (which is too high). Even so, poverty rate is below many red states (starting with Alabama and continuing through WVA). Stats from Chronicle of Higher Ed.

A reminder from the hellscape described by Trump (my city-state of DC): compared to 50 states, highest percentage of BA degree holders (26.9%); highest (by far) of PhDs (10.4%).

Thanks, Cullen. Look forward to reading your latest WP from @piie.com.