Joeri Rogelj
banner
joerirogelj.bsky.social
Joeri Rogelj
@joerirogelj.bsky.social

prof. climate science & policy | father | Imperial College London | 1.5C/net zero/carbon budget/pathways/justice | IPCC & UNEP lead author | ESABCC member

Joeri Rogelj is a Belgian climate scientist working on solutions to climate change. He explores how societies can transform towards sustainable futures. He is a Professor in Climate Science and Policy at the Centre for Environmental Policy (CEP) and Director of Research at the Grantham Institute – Climate Change and Environment, both at Imperial College London. He is also affiliated with the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. He is an author of several climate reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and a member of the European Scientific Advisory Board for Climate Change. .. more

Environmental science 39%
Economics 26%

Stories abound these days showing that global warming exceeding 1.5C is now part of science's best estimate.

What does that mean for the #ParisAgreement 1.5C goal?

A good time to revive a thread about a piece we wrote earlier this year on this topic in @science.org 👇🌍🌡️
What becomes of the 1.5°C goal now that global warming is approaching that level?🌍🔥🌡️

In a new @science.org Policy Forum we explain how the 1.5°C goal remains a critical legal & ethical benchmark, even as the world nears and may soon exceed 1.5°C of global warming🧵1/
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
The pursuit of 1.5°C endures as a legal and ethical imperative in a changing world
As the world nears 1.5°C of global warming, near-term emissions reductions and adequate adaptation become ever more important to ensure a safe and livable planet for present and future generations
www.science.org
COP30: Study reveals “highest possible ambition” for countries' climate pledges

With COP30 kicking off on Monday, a new paper by Julia Schönfeld and Professor Joeri Rogelj provides a framework for assessing countries’ climate pledges 🧵

Learn more: ow.ly/CiB050XnMK2
COP30: Study reveals “highest possible ambition” for countries' climate pledges | Imperial News | Imperial College London
A new study, for the first time, shows how the ‘highest possible ambition’ of countries' climate pledges can be assessed.
ow.ly

Reposted by Wim Thiery

Two years ago, the @esabcc.bsky.social published its advice on the EU's 2040 emissions reduction target. We indicated a 90-95% reduction relative 1990 levels.

Today, EU climate ministers agreed on a 90% target, with an 66.25-72.5% reduction as part for its new NDC for 2035.
Today, EU climate ministers agreed on a 90% net reduction in GHG emissions by 2040. The Council also updated the NDC with an indicative 66.25–72.5% reduction by 2035 The @esabcc.bsky.social contributed to this process by providing independent scientific advice on the 2040 climate target.

Reposted by Joeri Rogelj

Today, EU climate ministers agreed on a 90% net reduction in GHG emissions by 2040. The Council also updated the NDC with an indicative 66.25–72.5% reduction by 2035 The @esabcc.bsky.social contributed to this process by providing independent scientific advice on the 2040 climate target.

It has been a privilege to contribute to this report as a lead author for the 16th year running.
Today is the official launch of this year's @unep.org #EmissionsGap report.

It's title says it all

OFF TARGET

that's true for progress, NDCs and implementation
New national climate plans have barely moved the needle on limiting global warming. Yet there is hope.

According to UNEP's latest #EmissionsGap Report, accelerated adoption of renewable energy and falling costs mean we have the tools to cut emissions now: www.unep.org/news-and-sto...

We explicitly highlight how delays in global emissions cuts mean that holding warming below 1.5C is not possible anymore.

The pursuit of limiting warming to 1.5C, however, remains imperative albeit from above instead of from below.

We show new NDCs lower the highest global warming projections but fall well short of limiting warming below 1.5C.
What is the current state of climate action? What do latest country pledges add up to?
And how much global warming are we in for? 🌍🌡️ 🔥
For the 16th year in a row, we publish the @unep.org #emissionsgap report.
As usual, I looked the assessment of the global gap and its global warming implications.
NEW: The latest climate pledges under the Paris Agreement have driven only a slight fall in predicted global temperature rise over the course of this century.

The UN Emissions Gap Report finds that implementing current policies would lead to up to 2.8°C of warming, down from 3.1°C. 🧵

Reposted by Joeri Rogelj

Grantham Institute Director of Research Professor @joerirogelj.bsky.social was lead author on Chapter 4 of the report, which also includes contributions from Imperial’s Dr @robinlamboll.bsky.social.

Read the report in full here: ow.ly/V7Zy50XmtCz

Reposted by Joeri Rogelj

NEW: The latest climate pledges under the Paris Agreement have driven only a slight fall in predicted global temperature rise over the course of this century.

The UN Emissions Gap Report finds that implementing current policies would lead to up to 2.8°C of warming, down from 3.1°C. 🧵
New national climate plans have barely moved the needle on limiting global warming. Yet there is hope.

According to UNEP's latest #EmissionsGap Report, accelerated adoption of renewable energy and falling costs mean we have the tools to cut emissions now: www.unep.org/news-and-sto...

OUT NOW: we revisit the pivotal moment when science, institutions and politics aligned to deliver the UK’s #NetZero target. At a time of political divergence, the evidence for #ClimateAction remains clear. Evidence-based #ClimatePolicy is more relevant than ever. @granthamicl.bsky.social
Net Zero: The inside story of the UK’s climate target
YouTube video by Grantham Imperial
www.youtube.com

In this context, this forthcoming @granthamicl.bsky.social shortfilm on the UK’s net zero journey will offer a timely reflection on how science, institutions, and politics aligned to deliver evidence-based #ClimatePolicy serving the public interest. 2/2
bsky.app/profile/gran...
COMING SOON…

In 2019, the UK made history as the first major economy to commit to net zero by 2050.

But, while the science hasn’t changed, political consensus is fracturing.

We can’t wait to share our new film & to tell the inside story of the UK’s climate target

Stay tuned…
👀13 October

Next week, we reflect on how science and society shaped the UK’s #NetZero target. As political consensus wavers, the scientific evidence underpinning the need for rapid #ClimateAction remains robust and unequivocal. 1/2

Reposted by Joeri Rogelj

COMING SOON…

In 2019, the UK made history as the first major economy to commit to net zero by 2050.

But, while the science hasn’t changed, political consensus is fracturing.

We can’t wait to share our new film & to tell the inside story of the UK’s climate target

Stay tuned…
👀13 October

Pope Leo XIV has reaffirmed the imperative to act upon climate change and environmental degradation.

This firm response to climate science deniers marks the 10th anniversary of his Predecessor Pope Francis' encyclical "On Care of Our Common Home".

www.bbc.com/news/article...
Pope Leo hits out at critics of global warming
In his first major statement on climate change, the pontiff criticises those who minimise climate change.
www.bbc.com
IIASA @iiasa.ac.at · Oct 2
The third and final day of the #OvershootConference kicked off with an insightful report-back and reflection session, where theme leads shared insights from their discussions so far.

See insights from discussions on Day 2 in the thread below:
🌍New #ERL focus collection on #climate #overshoot is open!

Linked to @iiasa.ac.at Overshoots conference in Vienna this week. ERL Publisher Lauren Carter will be attending, email to discuss a contribution: Lauren.Carter@ioppublishing.org

📅Deadline: 30 April 2026
🔗 iopscience.iop.org/collections/...

Reposted by Joeri Rogelj

IIASA @iiasa.ac.at · Sep 15
@joerirogelj.bsky.social: “The pursuit of 1.5°C endures as a legal and ethical imperative. Overshoot does not erase this goal - it makes it more urgent.”
He called overshoot a test of our generation’s responsibility.
#ScienceInAction #ParisAgreement

Reposted by Joeri Rogelj

Despite the centrality of equity in the Paris Agreement, no framework exists to allocate responsibilities for carbon dioxide removals among countries.

A new paper, co-authored by Imperial's Professor ​@joerirogelj.bsky.social​, presents a framework for allocating CDR globally 🧵
NEW – Guest post: How the role of carbon storage has been hugely overestimated | @gidden.bsky.social @joerirogelj.bsky.social

Read here: buff.ly/QY7LyJ8
Guest post: How the role of carbon storage has been hugely overestimated - Carbon Brief
Removing carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere is widely expected to play a key role in meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement.
buff.ly

In a new study, we estimate how much geological CO2 storage capacity would be available when considering social, environmental, seismic and other risks.

Lead author @gidden.bsky.social wrote an extensive 🧵on the work 👇
Our paper is out today in @nature.com where we assess a Prudent Planetary Limit for Geologic Carbon Storage:

www.nature.com/articles/s41...
A prudent planetary limit for geologic carbon storage - Nature
A risk-based, spatially explicit analysis of carbon storage in sedimentary basins establishes a prudent planetary limit of around 1,460 Gt of geological carbon storage, which requires making explicit ...
www.nature.com

Yes - if we don't use any of it for fossil CCS and emit zero CO2 in the meantime.

You'll also have to tell me what's the latest on perfect reversability of global warming after overshoot though. :)

Reposted by Jeremy J. Schmidt

CO2 removal will play a pivotal role in any future where we achieve net-zero CO2 and eventually net-zero GHG emissions. By acknowledging its scarcity and reserving it for essential and strategic uses, governments can design fairer, robust mitigation strategies that limit risks and harm. /7

The bottom line of this study connects to previous work on legal limits to the use of CO2 removal, and robust decarbonisation strategies. /6

It assumes every tonne stored CO2 was removed from the atmosphere (and not captured from fossil fuel combustion or industry sources).

And meanwhile no other CO2 emission are emitted.

0.7°C of global warming reversal is thus a clear ceiling, based on a central estimate of climate response. /5