David L. Ortega
banner
dlortega.bsky.social
David L. Ortega
@dlortega.bsky.social

Food Economist | Professor and Noel W. Stuckman Chair in Food Economics and Policy at Michigan State University | Venezuelan πŸ‡»πŸ‡ͺ

Economics 31%
Agriculture 24%
Pinned
What to Watch in 2025: Key Issues Shaping the Food Economy

As we enter 2025, the #food economy faces major developments that will shape the sector. Here are 5 issues I’ll be watching closely: 🧡

1/n

Food prices since Trump took office

Food economist here πŸ™‹πŸ½β€β™‚οΈ would like to disagree and point out that grocery inflation since Trump took office has accelerated relative to the preceding months.

Also those price increases for coffee, ground beef, chocolate, bananas, and canned goods in recent months? That’s in large part the tariffs!
Q: Food prices are still going up. Grocery prices are still going up. How do you respond?

MIKE JOHNSON: All of the economist have shown that food prices always go up. There's an inflationary level that's built in to grocery prices.
Q: Food prices are still going up. Grocery prices are still going up. How do you respond?

MIKE JOHNSON: All of the economist have shown that food prices always go up. There's an inflationary level that's built in to grocery prices.

We’ve made America so great that I just booked a backup rental car for my weekend return flight home. πŸ™„
We crunched the federal data and found the US is on track to have the *fewest inspections since 2011* (excluding pandemic years).

In recent years, the FDA has typically been able to conduct ~110 foreign food inspections each month, but in March, the number of inspections dropped almost in half.

*checks price data*

Wholesale turkey πŸ¦ƒ prices 40%πŸ”Ίy/y

Retail beef roast πŸ₯© prices 18%πŸ”Ί

SCOTUS skeptical of Trump’s tariffs during oral arguments today.

Since the president took office, food prices have increased 1.7% πŸ“ˆ

Groceries are up 1.6% πŸ”Ί

Menu prices are up 2.5% πŸ”Ί
Trump denies grocery prices are up and then says people will be fine because "their 401ks are up." (Nearly half of Americans have no retirement savings)

Reposted by David L. Ortega

Trump denies grocery prices are up and then says people will be fine because "their 401ks are up." (Nearly half of Americans have no retirement savings)

Chocolate prices are scary high this Halloween πŸŽƒπŸ«πŸ“ˆ

Cocoa costs have surged to record highs after years of poor harvests in West Africa β€” where most of the world’s cocoa is grown.

The result? Smaller bars, more fillers, and higher prices.

Reposted by David L. Ortega

Since Sept. 1, bird flu outbreaks have wiped out 1.2 million turkeys from farms supplying meat for dinner tablesβ€”or 20 times more than at the start of last year's flu season. Egg-laying hens face a similar uptick.

I wrote about what this could mean for Thanksgiving, egg prices, and biosecurity. 🧡
Bird Flu Roars Back: What It Means for Thanksgiving | Think Global Health
Since September, turkey and egg farms have lost millions of birds, renewing pressure on food prices and biosecurity
www.thinkglobalhealth.org

Reposted by David L. Ortega

POTUS:

- stops $ to buy US farmers' products for hungry Americans shrinking farmers' domestic market

- vaporizes US farmers' foreign markets via tariffs

- sends billions tax $ to Argentina to bail out Trump donors while Argentina boosts its farmers sales to US farmers' former customers
β€œ.. perhaps the most cruel and unlawful offense the Trump administration has perpetrated yet β€” freezing funding already enacted into law to feed hungry Americans while he shovels tens of billions of dollars .. to Argentina and into his ballroom.”

@politico.com #SNAP
www.politico.com/news/2025/10...

Reposted by Richard Waite

Breaking down what’s behind your rising grocery costs with my friends at PBS NewsHour πŸ›’πŸ“ˆ

πŸ”— Full segment youtu.be/YqIGSdKn184

πŸ‘€πŸΏ

πŸ₯΄
CNBC: Is importing beef from Argentina a possibility?

BROOKE ROLLINS: Yes, the president has said he's in discussions with Argentina. It will not be very much. Argentina is also facing a foot and mouth disease issue.

Reposted by David L. Ortega

CNBC: Is importing beef from Argentina a possibility?

BROOKE ROLLINS: Yes, the president has said he's in discussions with Argentina. It will not be very much. Argentina is also facing a foot and mouth disease issue.

Lansing, Michigan #NoKings

Lansing, Michigan
#NoKings

Great article out today in the NYT on the history of processed and ultra processed foods.

www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
How America Got Hooked on Ultraprocessed Food
They promised convenience and cheap nutrition. But they became one of the greatest health threats of our time.
www.nytimes.com

"BLS will publish the September 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday, October 24, 2025, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time. No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services." www.bls.gov/bls/092025-c...
September 2025 CPI Release Rescheduled
September 2025 CPI Release Rescheduled
www.bls.gov

About those soybean sales to Chinas...

Turkey prices are set to rise this Thanksgiving πŸ¦ƒπŸ½οΈπŸ“ˆ

Bird flu and AMPV have hit flocks hard, pushing bird numbers to a 40-year low. Production is ~6% and wholesale prices are πŸ”Ί~25% y/y.

No need to panic as there will still be plenty of πŸ¦ƒ in stores, but you may likely pay a bit more this year πŸ’Έ.

The drop in international student arrivals into the US is pretty staggering.

Nearly 20% less students traveled to the US this August compared to last year.

🌏 24% drop in students from Asia

🌍 32% drop in students from Africa
The decline is occurring as the Trump administration has delayed visa processing, instituted travel bans or restrictions for 19 countries, threatened to deport international students for pro-Palestinian speech, and heightened the vetting of student visa applicants.

www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Nearly 20 Percent Fewer International Students Traveled to the U.S. in August
The data shows the steepest decline in August international student arrivals since the pandemic.
www.nytimes.com
The decline is occurring as the Trump administration has delayed visa processing, instituted travel bans or restrictions for 19 countries, threatened to deport international students for pro-Palestinian speech, and heightened the vetting of student visa applicants.

www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Nearly 20 Percent Fewer International Students Traveled to the U.S. in August
The data shows the steepest decline in August international student arrivals since the pandemic.
www.nytimes.com

Reposted by David L. Ortega

Farmers don’t want government payments, they’re looking for access to export markets, and our current trade policy is making that extremely difficult.

Also, four weeks is an eternity for soybean farmers.

πŸ’”