Antoine Berthou

@antoineberthou.bsky.social

97 followers 140 following 2 posts

Economist

https://sites.google.com/site/antoineberthou/

Videos

Economics 74%

Business 19%

Posts Replies Media Videos

Reposted by Menzie Chinn, Antoine Berthou

Kirsten @kmschubring.bsky.social · Aug 12

And to cut off independent reporting

www.wsj.com/economy/trum...

Trump Calls on Goldman to Replace Economist Over Tariff Stance

The bank’s economists had predicted tariffs could cause inflation and slow economic growth.

www.wsj.com

Reposted by Antoine Berthou

CEPII @cepii-paris.bsky.social · May 5

📊🅻🅴 𝐆𝐫𝐚𝐩𝐡𝐢𝐪𝐮𝐞-🆃🅷🅴 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐭 "La vulnérabilité bilatérale aux importations est plus forte aux États-Unis qu’en Europe" de Kevin Lefebvre et @paulinewbx.bsky.social
www.cepii.fr/BLOG/bi/post...
@denizunalcepii.bsky.social
#econsky #importation

Reposted by Antoine Berthou

International and Monetary Economics Network @intmon.bsky.social · Apr 16

The Fed will likely have a difficult task!

"Economic Outlook", speech by Jay Powell at the Economic Club of Chicago

"We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension."

www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...

Speech by Chair Powell on the economic outlook

Thank you for the introduction. I am looking forward to our conversation, Professor Rajan. First, I will briefly discuss the outlook for the economy and moneta

www.federalreserve.gov

Antoine Berthou @antoineberthou.bsky.social · Apr 14

The global economy in pictures : last few days have been tough… I truly hope we are heading towards quieter waters. This will require cold blood and … adults in the room !

Reposted by Antoine Berthou

Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke @kevinhorourke.bsky.social · Apr 7

The US is ignoring WTO rules regarding trade in goods. Why should it enjoy WTO rules regarding trade in services? And how does anyone expect the rules-based system. on which countries like Ireland depend, to survive, if countries can pick and choose what rules to follow?
www.rte.ie/news/politic...

Targeting tech firms would be 'extraordinary escalation'

It would be an "extraordinary" escalation for the European Union to target US tech companies in retaliation for US President Donald Trump's blanket tariffs on European goods, the Tánaiste has said.

www.rte.ie

Reposted by Antoine Berthou

VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · Mar 11

Floods, wildfires, devastation— #climate disasters are growing, yet many remain uninsured. A CEPR-AXA Research Fund event explored the future of #insurability & the role of prevention, pricing, & #policy. More here: 🔗https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/insuring-world-tomorrow
@wederdim.bsky.social

Insuring the world of tomorrow.
Ulrike Decoene Beatrice Weder di Mauro.
Intensifying climate extremes are exposing growing gaps in insurance coverage and threatening financial resilience. Drawing on a recent panel hosted at the Collège de France, this column examines how escalating disaster costs, market failures, and the need for better prevention urge to redefine societies’ risk management mechanisms in an increasingly uncertain climate landscape. The discussion highlighted the tension between risk-based pricing and solidarity-based schemes, underlining the necessity of prevention efforts and more equitable risk-sharing arrangements. As climate hazards intensify, striking a sustainable balance between affordability and fiscal viability emerges as a pressing challenge for policymakers, insurers, and society alike.

Reposted by Antoine Berthou

Michael Pettis @michaelpettis.bsky.social · Feb 18

1/10
"The loss of German manufacturing jobs has been masked by a broader shift in employment trends," the FT notes, citing employment growth in services industries such as real estate, healthcare, communications and public administration.
www.ft.com/content/bdba...

www.ft.com

Antoine Berthou @antoineberthou.bsky.social · Feb 14

The two sides of the same coin 🙃

Reposted by Steven G. Medema, Antoine Berthou

FinTwitter @fintwitter.bsky.social · Feb 14

U.S. TREASURY'S BESSENT: OUR STRONG DOLLAR POLICY DOESN'T MEAN OTHER COUNTRIES GET TO HAVE A WEAK CURRENCY POLICY -FBN

Reposted by Antoine Berthou

Pol Antras @pantras.bsky.social · Feb 13

10/ Want to dig deeper?

Full paper: antras.scholars.harvard.edu/sites/g/file...

Short version for AEA P&P: antras.scholars.harvard.edu/sites/g/file...

Our six-digit NAICS measure of the APP can be downloaded here: antras.scholars.harvard.edu/sites/g/file...

Replication package available soon.

antras.scholars.harvard.edu

Reposted by Antoine Berthou

Pol Antras @pantras.bsky.social · Feb 13

1/ 📢 New paper alert! 📄 Together with Vitalii Tubdenov, we propose a measure of the "Average Period of Production" (APP) to capture the temporal dimension of production processes. It is inspired by Böhm-Bawerk’s capital theory.

Reposted by Douglas A. Irwin, Antoine Berthou

Dennis Novy @dennisnovy.bsky.social · Jan 21

Great interview:

@douglasirwin.bsky.social on US trade policy — past and present

By @alanbeattie.bsky.social

podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...

Trump and the history of tariffs. With Doug Irwin

Podcast Episode · The Economics Show · 20/01/2025 · 43m

podcasts.apple.com

Reposted by Douglas A. Irwin, Antoine Berthou

Robert Wolfe @bobwolfe.bsky.social · Jan 21

terrific interview with @douglasirwin.bsky.social

If you're not a fan of podcasts, here's the transcript
www.ft.com/content/58ec...

Reposted by Antoine Berthou

Marion Jansen @marionjansen.bsky.social · Jan 21

China has come to dominate global value chains for solar modules & wind turbines, accounting globally for >80% of module production + >70% of production of key turbine components. Is government support part of the success story? Find out more in this new OECD report: www.oecd.org/en/publicati...

Reposted by Antoine Berthou

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · Jan 20

Without comment: Elon Musk today. www.youtube.com/watch?v=-VfY...

Reposted by Antoine Berthou

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas @pgourinchas.bsky.social · Jan 17

Our January 2025 World Economic Outlook Update is out. Global growth will remain steady at 3.3% for 2025-26, broadly aligned with world potential growth that has substantially weakened since before the pandemic. www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Art...

Reposted by Antoine Berthou

Philip A. Luck @philuck.bsky.social · Jan 13

I am excited to be joining @csis.org as the Director of the Economics Program and Scholl Chair in International Business, leading a team conducting rigorous, applied economic analysis to shape U.S. strategic and economic policy. www.csis.org/news/csis-na...

CSIS Names Philip A. Luck as Scholl Chair in International Business and Director of Economics Program

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) announced Philip A. Luck has been named Scholl Chair in International Business and Director of the CSIS Economics Program.

www.csis.org

Reposted by Antoine Berthou

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · Jan 13

How many lies can one pack into a single paragraph. See Jeffrey Tucker show you! #econsky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Antoine Berthou

Jason Furman @jasonfurman.bsky.social · Jan 9

1. No exchange rate effect. In this case imports are 10% more expensive for consumers. Exports are the same (because the exchange rate did not change) and the trade deficit shrinks. The entire tariff is paid by Americans.

Reposted by Antoine Berthou

Jason Furman @jasonfurman.bsky.social · Jan 9

Tariffs & exchange rates. A short explainer of the simple case of 10% across-the-board tariffs. Let's start with no retaliation.

Brief version: Tariffs will strengthen the U.S. dollar which will reduce impact on consumers but exacerbate it for exporters.

Three cases:

Reposted by Antoine Berthou

Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke @kevinhorourke.bsky.social · Jan 8

This is making me feel young again, it's all very 1980s! Back then Mike Gavin and I independently showed that tariffs can improve the current account in an inter-temporal S-I framework, by hurting income more in the long run than in the short run. So not necessarily to be recommended...

Reposted by Federico Ortino, Antoine Berthou

Dani Rodrik @drodrik.bsky.social · Jan 8

Tariffs are neither a Swiss Army knife for domestic problems nor an effective stick to discipline other nations (as Trump believes). But they can be useful as a shield allowing other (social, environmental, industrial) policies to do their work. My latest www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/t...

What Tariffs Can and Can’t Do | by Dani Rodrik - Project Syndicate

Dani Rodrik argues that import duties are neither an all-purpose tool, as Donald Trump believes, nor a purposeless one.

www.project-syndicate.org

Reposted by Antoine Berthou

Judah Grunstein @judah-grunstein.bsky.social · Jan 8

High-quality and informative discussion between @drodrik.bsky.social and @michaelpettis.bsky.social on the use cases and effectiveness of tariffs, starting from this piece.

Reposted by Antoine Berthou

Michael Pettis @michaelpettis.bsky.social · Jan 8

1/8
As always, Dani Rodrik presents a nuanced discussion of tariffs without the hysteria that usually surrounds any such discussion. He notes that "an import tariff is a specific combination of two different policies: a tax on...

Dani Rodrik @drodrik.bsky.social · Jan 8

What Tariffs Can and Can’t Do | by Dani Rodrik - Project Syndicate

Dani Rodrik argues that import duties are neither an all-purpose tool, as Donald Trump believes, nor a purposeless one.

www.project-syndicate.org

Reposted by Antoine Berthou

Michael Pettis @michaelpettis.bsky.social · Jan 8

8/8
That is why I often cite Ragnar Nurkse: “the devaluation of a currency is expansionary in effect if it corrects a previous overvaluation, but deflationary if it makes the currency undervalued.”

This is true about any policy that changes existing trade relationships.

Reposted by Antoine Berthou

Michael Pettis @michaelpettis.bsky.social · Jan 8

6/8
That is why the comparison with currency depreciation is useful. If a country's currency is undervalued, or "correctly" valued, devaluing the currency is likely to distort the efficient functioning of the market and to reduce global value creation.

Reposted by Antoine Berthou

Michael Pettis @michaelpettis.bsky.social · Jan 8

5/8
At least in the short term (see Rodrik's "infant industry" exception).

But in a world of highly unbalanced trade, tariffs can actually improve efficiency if they are designed to counter beggar-thy-neighbor policies and reverse the imbalances.

Reposted by Antoine Berthou

Michael Pettis @michaelpettis.bsky.social · Jan 8

Good Paul Krugman piece on the relationship between the dollar and the US trade deficit: "the trade deficits of the 80s arguably marked the point at which the hollowing out of U.S. manufacturing really got going."

open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...

The Dollar and the Trade Deficit

What will Trump do when his favorite obsession goes the wrong way?

open.substack.com

Reposted by Antoine Berthou

Journal of International Economics @jintlecon.bsky.social · Jan 7

New at JIE: "From macro to micro: Large exporters coping with global crises" by Jean-Charles Bricongne, Juan Carluccio, Lionel Fontagné, Guillaume Gaulier, Sebastian Stumpner

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104037

Reposted by Antoine Berthou

Michael Pettis @michaelpettis.bsky.social · Jan 5

1/5
NYT: "“Our new approach to trade recognizes people as more than just consumers, but also producers,” Katherine Tai said in a 2023 speech."

This is a key point in any serious discussion of US trade or industrial policy.

www.nytimes.com/2025/01/04/u...

How the Democrats Lost the Working Class

The theory seemed sound: Stabilize financial markets, support the poor and promote a more secure, integrated world. But blue-collar workers were left behind.

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