Antoine Berthou
@antoineberthou.bsky.social
Reposted by Antoine Berthou
Reposted by Antoine Berthou
📊🅻🅴 𝐆𝐫𝐚𝐩𝐡𝐢𝐪𝐮𝐞-🆃🅷🅴 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐭 "La vulnérabilité bilatérale aux importations est plus forte aux États-Unis qu’en Europe" de Kevin Lefebvre et @paulinewbx.bsky.social
www.cepii.fr/BLOG/bi/post...
@denizunalcepii.bsky.social
#econsky #importation
www.cepii.fr/BLOG/bi/post...
@denizunalcepii.bsky.social
#econsky #importation
May 5, 2025 at 9:35 AM
📊🅻🅴 𝐆𝐫𝐚𝐩𝐡𝐢𝐪𝐮𝐞-🆃🅷🅴 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐭 "La vulnérabilité bilatérale aux importations est plus forte aux États-Unis qu’en Europe" de Kevin Lefebvre et @paulinewbx.bsky.social
www.cepii.fr/BLOG/bi/post...
@denizunalcepii.bsky.social
#econsky #importation
www.cepii.fr/BLOG/bi/post...
@denizunalcepii.bsky.social
#econsky #importation
Reposted by Antoine Berthou
The Fed will likely have a difficult task!
"Economic Outlook", speech by Jay Powell at the Economic Club of Chicago
"We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension."
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
"Economic Outlook", speech by Jay Powell at the Economic Club of Chicago
"We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension."
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
Speech by Chair Powell on the economic outlook
Thank you for the introduction. I am looking forward to our conversation, Professor Rajan. First, I will briefly discuss the outlook for the economy and moneta
www.federalreserve.gov
April 16, 2025 at 9:42 PM
The Fed will likely have a difficult task!
"Economic Outlook", speech by Jay Powell at the Economic Club of Chicago
"We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension."
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
"Economic Outlook", speech by Jay Powell at the Economic Club of Chicago
"We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension."
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
The global economy in pictures : last few days have been tough… I truly hope we are heading towards quieter waters. This will require cold blood and … adults in the room !
April 14, 2025 at 5:49 PM
The global economy in pictures : last few days have been tough… I truly hope we are heading towards quieter waters. This will require cold blood and … adults in the room !
Reposted by Antoine Berthou
The US is ignoring WTO rules regarding trade in goods. Why should it enjoy WTO rules regarding trade in services? And how does anyone expect the rules-based system. on which countries like Ireland depend, to survive, if countries can pick and choose what rules to follow?
www.rte.ie/news/politic...
www.rte.ie/news/politic...
Targeting tech firms would be 'extraordinary escalation'
It would be an "extraordinary" escalation for the European Union to target US tech companies in retaliation for US President Donald Trump's blanket tariffs on European goods, the Tánaiste has said.
www.rte.ie
April 7, 2025 at 8:58 PM
The US is ignoring WTO rules regarding trade in goods. Why should it enjoy WTO rules regarding trade in services? And how does anyone expect the rules-based system. on which countries like Ireland depend, to survive, if countries can pick and choose what rules to follow?
www.rte.ie/news/politic...
www.rte.ie/news/politic...
Reposted by Antoine Berthou
Floods, wildfires, devastation— #climate disasters are growing, yet many remain uninsured. A CEPR-AXA Research Fund event explored the future of #insurability & the role of prevention, pricing, & #policy. More here: 🔗https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/insuring-world-tomorrow
@wederdim.bsky.social
@wederdim.bsky.social
March 11, 2025 at 5:15 PM
Floods, wildfires, devastation— #climate disasters are growing, yet many remain uninsured. A CEPR-AXA Research Fund event explored the future of #insurability & the role of prevention, pricing, & #policy. More here: 🔗https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/insuring-world-tomorrow
@wederdim.bsky.social
@wederdim.bsky.social
Reposted by Antoine Berthou
1/10
"The loss of German manufacturing jobs has been masked by a broader shift in employment trends," the FT notes, citing employment growth in services industries such as real estate, healthcare, communications and public administration.
www.ft.com/content/bdba...
"The loss of German manufacturing jobs has been masked by a broader shift in employment trends," the FT notes, citing employment growth in services industries such as real estate, healthcare, communications and public administration.
www.ft.com/content/bdba...
www.ft.com
February 18, 2025 at 8:45 AM
1/10
"The loss of German manufacturing jobs has been masked by a broader shift in employment trends," the FT notes, citing employment growth in services industries such as real estate, healthcare, communications and public administration.
www.ft.com/content/bdba...
"The loss of German manufacturing jobs has been masked by a broader shift in employment trends," the FT notes, citing employment growth in services industries such as real estate, healthcare, communications and public administration.
www.ft.com/content/bdba...
Reposted by Antoine Berthou
“I want a slice of bread but also I will howl with rage if you start slicing the bread”
- my two year old
- my two year old
U.S. TREASURY'S BESSENT: OUR STRONG DOLLAR POLICY DOESN'T MEAN OTHER COUNTRIES GET TO HAVE A WEAK CURRENCY POLICY -FBN
February 14, 2025 at 11:56 AM
“I want a slice of bread but also I will howl with rage if you start slicing the bread”
- my two year old
- my two year old
Reposted by Antoine Berthou
10/ Want to dig deeper?
Full paper: antras.scholars.harvard.edu/sites/g/file...
Short version for AEA P&P: antras.scholars.harvard.edu/sites/g/file...
Our six-digit NAICS measure of the APP can be downloaded here: antras.scholars.harvard.edu/sites/g/file...
Replication package available soon.
Full paper: antras.scholars.harvard.edu/sites/g/file...
Short version for AEA P&P: antras.scholars.harvard.edu/sites/g/file...
Our six-digit NAICS measure of the APP can be downloaded here: antras.scholars.harvard.edu/sites/g/file...
Replication package available soon.
antras.scholars.harvard.edu
February 13, 2025 at 2:15 PM
10/ Want to dig deeper?
Full paper: antras.scholars.harvard.edu/sites/g/file...
Short version for AEA P&P: antras.scholars.harvard.edu/sites/g/file...
Our six-digit NAICS measure of the APP can be downloaded here: antras.scholars.harvard.edu/sites/g/file...
Replication package available soon.
Full paper: antras.scholars.harvard.edu/sites/g/file...
Short version for AEA P&P: antras.scholars.harvard.edu/sites/g/file...
Our six-digit NAICS measure of the APP can be downloaded here: antras.scholars.harvard.edu/sites/g/file...
Replication package available soon.
Reposted by Antoine Berthou
1/ 📢 New paper alert! 📄 Together with Vitalii Tubdenov, we propose a measure of the "Average Period of Production" (APP) to capture the temporal dimension of production processes. It is inspired by Böhm-Bawerk’s capital theory.
February 13, 2025 at 2:15 PM
1/ 📢 New paper alert! 📄 Together with Vitalii Tubdenov, we propose a measure of the "Average Period of Production" (APP) to capture the temporal dimension of production processes. It is inspired by Böhm-Bawerk’s capital theory.
Reposted by Antoine Berthou
China has come to dominate global value chains for solar modules & wind turbines, accounting globally for >80% of module production + >70% of production of key turbine components. Is government support part of the success story? Find out more in this new OECD report: www.oecd.org/en/publicati...
January 21, 2025 at 5:37 PM
China has come to dominate global value chains for solar modules & wind turbines, accounting globally for >80% of module production + >70% of production of key turbine components. Is government support part of the success story? Find out more in this new OECD report: www.oecd.org/en/publicati...
Reposted by Antoine Berthou
terrific interview with @douglasirwin.bsky.social
If you're not a fan of podcasts, here's the transcript
www.ft.com/content/58ec...
If you're not a fan of podcasts, here's the transcript
www.ft.com/content/58ec...
January 21, 2025 at 6:04 PM
terrific interview with @douglasirwin.bsky.social
If you're not a fan of podcasts, here's the transcript
www.ft.com/content/58ec...
If you're not a fan of podcasts, here's the transcript
www.ft.com/content/58ec...
Reposted by Antoine Berthou
Great interview:
@douglasirwin.bsky.social on US trade policy — past and present
By @alanbeattie.bsky.social
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...
@douglasirwin.bsky.social on US trade policy — past and present
By @alanbeattie.bsky.social
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...
Trump and the history of tariffs. With Doug Irwin
Podcast Episode · The Economics Show · 20/01/2025 · 43m
podcasts.apple.com
January 21, 2025 at 7:38 PM
Great interview:
@douglasirwin.bsky.social on US trade policy — past and present
By @alanbeattie.bsky.social
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...
@douglasirwin.bsky.social on US trade policy — past and present
By @alanbeattie.bsky.social
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...
Reposted by Antoine Berthou
Got the ball rolling on a Fed Economists starter pack go.bsky.app/GudXeoo
Fed economists, let me know if you’re on Bluesky and I’ll add you
Fed economists, let me know if you’re on Bluesky and I’ll add you
November 15, 2024 at 9:23 PM
Got the ball rolling on a Fed Economists starter pack go.bsky.app/GudXeoo
Fed economists, let me know if you’re on Bluesky and I’ll add you
Fed economists, let me know if you’re on Bluesky and I’ll add you
Reposted by Antoine Berthou
Without comment: Elon Musk today. www.youtube.com/watch?v=-VfY...
January 20, 2025 at 11:12 PM
Without comment: Elon Musk today. www.youtube.com/watch?v=-VfY...
Reposted by Antoine Berthou
Our January 2025 World Economic Outlook Update is out. Global growth will remain steady at 3.3% for 2025-26, broadly aligned with world potential growth that has substantially weakened since before the pandemic. www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Art...
January 17, 2025 at 6:41 PM
Our January 2025 World Economic Outlook Update is out. Global growth will remain steady at 3.3% for 2025-26, broadly aligned with world potential growth that has substantially weakened since before the pandemic. www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Art...
Reposted by Antoine Berthou
New at JIE: "From macro to micro: Large exporters coping with global crises" by Jean-Charles Bricongne, Juan Carluccio, Lionel Fontagné, Guillaume Gaulier, Sebastian Stumpner
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104037
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104037
January 7, 2025 at 4:00 PM
New at JIE: "From macro to micro: Large exporters coping with global crises" by Jean-Charles Bricongne, Juan Carluccio, Lionel Fontagné, Guillaume Gaulier, Sebastian Stumpner
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104037
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104037
Reposted by Antoine Berthou
I am excited to be joining @csis.org as the Director of the Economics Program and Scholl Chair in International Business, leading a team conducting rigorous, applied economic analysis to shape U.S. strategic and economic policy. www.csis.org/news/csis-na...
CSIS Names Philip A. Luck as Scholl Chair in International Business and Director of Economics Program
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) announced Philip A. Luck has been named Scholl Chair in International Business and Director of the CSIS Economics Program.
www.csis.org
January 13, 2025 at 9:42 PM
I am excited to be joining @csis.org as the Director of the Economics Program and Scholl Chair in International Business, leading a team conducting rigorous, applied economic analysis to shape U.S. strategic and economic policy. www.csis.org/news/csis-na...
Reposted by Antoine Berthou
Nice FT write-up of our new Brexit & trade paper by the always excellent @pmdfoster.bsky.social
Rightly notes that our findings (goods exports⬇️6.4% due to TCA, imports ⬇️3.1%) suggest OBR's forecast (long-run trade ⬇️15%) may be an over-estimate of the impact of Brexit
on.ft.com/4iK8esS
Rightly notes that our findings (goods exports⬇️6.4% due to TCA, imports ⬇️3.1%) suggest OBR's forecast (long-run trade ⬇️15%) may be an over-estimate of the impact of Brexit
on.ft.com/4iK8esS
Brexit hit to UK trade less than predicted, says study
Larger companies have adapted to red tape at the border, according to London School of Economics research
on.ft.com
December 18, 2024 at 11:26 AM
Nice FT write-up of our new Brexit & trade paper by the always excellent @pmdfoster.bsky.social
Rightly notes that our findings (goods exports⬇️6.4% due to TCA, imports ⬇️3.1%) suggest OBR's forecast (long-run trade ⬇️15%) may be an over-estimate of the impact of Brexit
on.ft.com/4iK8esS
Rightly notes that our findings (goods exports⬇️6.4% due to TCA, imports ⬇️3.1%) suggest OBR's forecast (long-run trade ⬇️15%) may be an over-estimate of the impact of Brexit
on.ft.com/4iK8esS
Reposted by Antoine Berthou
How many lies can one pack into a single paragraph. See Jeffrey Tucker show you! #econsky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
January 13, 2025 at 2:52 PM
How many lies can one pack into a single paragraph. See Jeffrey Tucker show you! #econsky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Reposted by Antoine Berthou
1. No exchange rate effect. In this case imports are 10% more expensive for consumers. Exports are the same (because the exchange rate did not change) and the trade deficit shrinks. The entire tariff is paid by Americans.
January 9, 2025 at 3:43 PM
1. No exchange rate effect. In this case imports are 10% more expensive for consumers. Exports are the same (because the exchange rate did not change) and the trade deficit shrinks. The entire tariff is paid by Americans.
Reposted by Antoine Berthou
Tariffs & exchange rates. A short explainer of the simple case of 10% across-the-board tariffs. Let's start with no retaliation.
Brief version: Tariffs will strengthen the U.S. dollar which will reduce impact on consumers but exacerbate it for exporters.
Three cases:
Brief version: Tariffs will strengthen the U.S. dollar which will reduce impact on consumers but exacerbate it for exporters.
Three cases:
January 9, 2025 at 3:43 PM
Tariffs & exchange rates. A short explainer of the simple case of 10% across-the-board tariffs. Let's start with no retaliation.
Brief version: Tariffs will strengthen the U.S. dollar which will reduce impact on consumers but exacerbate it for exporters.
Three cases:
Brief version: Tariffs will strengthen the U.S. dollar which will reduce impact on consumers but exacerbate it for exporters.
Three cases:
Reposted by Antoine Berthou
Good Paul Krugman piece on the relationship between the dollar and the US trade deficit: "the trade deficits of the 80s arguably marked the point at which the hollowing out of U.S. manufacturing really got going."
open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
The Dollar and the Trade Deficit
What will Trump do when his favorite obsession goes the wrong way?
open.substack.com
January 8, 2025 at 5:12 AM
Good Paul Krugman piece on the relationship between the dollar and the US trade deficit: "the trade deficits of the 80s arguably marked the point at which the hollowing out of U.S. manufacturing really got going."
open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
Reposted by Antoine Berthou
A useful discussion by @michaelpettis.bsky.social of my piece on tariffs. I agree that if (a) an existing current account deficit is inefficient; and (b) a tariff can reduce/correct the deficit, that a tariff can be efficiency enhancing, in a second-best sense. But the caveats are important. +
1/8
As always, Dani Rodrik presents a nuanced discussion of tariffs without the hysteria that usually surrounds any such discussion. He notes that "an import tariff is a specific combination of two different policies: a tax on...
As always, Dani Rodrik presents a nuanced discussion of tariffs without the hysteria that usually surrounds any such discussion. He notes that "an import tariff is a specific combination of two different policies: a tax on...
Tariffs are neither a Swiss Army knife for domestic problems nor an effective stick to discipline other nations (as Trump believes). But they can be useful as a shield allowing other (social, environmental, industrial) policies to do their work. My latest www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/t...
January 8, 2025 at 2:53 PM
A useful discussion by @michaelpettis.bsky.social of my piece on tariffs. I agree that if (a) an existing current account deficit is inefficient; and (b) a tariff can reduce/correct the deficit, that a tariff can be efficiency enhancing, in a second-best sense. But the caveats are important. +
Reposted by Antoine Berthou
This is making me feel young again, it's all very 1980s! Back then Mike Gavin and I independently showed that tariffs can improve the current account in an inter-temporal S-I framework, by hurting income more in the long run than in the short run. So not necessarily to be recommended...
January 8, 2025 at 9:32 PM
This is making me feel young again, it's all very 1980s! Back then Mike Gavin and I independently showed that tariffs can improve the current account in an inter-temporal S-I framework, by hurting income more in the long run than in the short run. So not necessarily to be recommended...