#stock-to-flow
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edzitron.com
The AI bubble is reaching its peak, with the largest data center funder (Blue Owl) walking away from a $10bn deal with Oracle, just as Broadcom gets pummeled post-earnings for showing no revenue from OpenAI, and CoreWeave fails to build capacity in time.
www.wheresyoured.at/premium-how-...
Disney is investing $1 billion in OpenAI in a deal where OpenAI will "bring beloved characters from Disney's brands to Sora," including a three-year licensing deal. One might think that a licensing deal is weird, given that Disney is investing, and one would be right! Apparently OpenAI is "paying" to license Disney's characters entirely in stock warrants, and Disney has the opportunity to buy an undisclosed amount of future stock. Amazon is in discussions to invest $10 billion in OpenAI at a valuation of over $500 billion, per The Information, and plans to use Amazon's Trainium AI server chips (its in-house competitor to NVIDIA's GPUs that some startups, per Business Insider, claim have "performance challenges" and "underperformed" NVIDIA's years-old H100 chips), apparently. Any excitement you might have over this deal should be tempered by the fact that OpenAI and Amazon Web Services signed a $38 billion deal back in November, meaning that this is likely a situation where Amazon would hand money to OpenAI, which would then hand the money right back to Amazon, and that's assuming any real money actually changes hands. Though this is just one source, I've heard tell that Amazon, at times, sells Trainium at a loss to get customers. Then again, I think this might be the case with all AI compute. Bloomberg reported that Oracle has pushed back the completion date of multiple data centers being built for OpenAI, "largely due to labor and material shortages." Oracle responded, saying that "there have been no delays to any sites required to meet our contractual commitments, and all milestones remain on track." It isn't clear what data centers these are, but a clue might be... ...that Blue Owl has pulled out of funding a $10 billion deal for a data center for Oracle/OpenAI in Michigan, per The Financial Times. This is a very, very, very bad sign. Blue Owl is arguably the loosest, friendliest lender in the data center space, and while Oracle claims another partner is allegedl… So why did this deal fall apart? Well, according to the Financial Times, "lenders pushed for stricter leasing and debt terms amid shifting market sentiment around enormous AI spending including Oracle’s own commitments and rising debt levels." If only somebody could have warned them, somehow. Though I'll get into more detail after the premium break, both Oracle and Broadcom reported earnings, and both saw their stocks get dumped like a deadbeat boyfriend with a bad attitude and credit card debt. In Oracle's case it was the same old story — lots of debt, decaying margins and negative cash flow, along with a bunch of commitments. Did I mention that Oracle has $248 billion in upcoming data center lease commitments? More than double those made by Microsoft? In Broadcom's case, things were a little weirder. While it beat on estimates, it partly did so, per The Coastal Journal, by playing funny non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting practices) games with things like how it handles stock compensation and the amortizations to raise its "adjusted" earnings per share, boosting non-GAAP revenues by $4.4 billion. The other problem was related to OpenAI. Back in October, Broadcom and OpenAI announced a "strategic collaboration" for "10 gigawatts of customer AI accelerators," with "Broadcom to deploy racks of AI accelerator and network systems targeted to start in the second half of 2026, to complete by 2029." I'll get into the nitty gritty later, but CEO Hock Tan said that Broadcom "did not expect much [revenue]" in 2026 from the deal. CoreWeave's Denton Data Center has become a nightmare, with, per the Wall Street Journal, heavy rains and winds causing "a roughly 60-day delay" that prevented contractors from pouring concrete for the data center, pushing the completion date back by "several months" on top of "additional delays caused by revisions to design" for a data center specifically built to lease to OpenAI. There are a few common threads between all of these stories: OpenAI doesn't have cash. The Disney licensing deal? Paid for in stock. The AWS contract? Amazon has to give OpenAI $10 billion to pay for it, because OpenAI doesn't have the cash. Broadcom's deal with OpenAI? "not much" revenue in 2026, probably because OpenAI doesn't have the cash. The Money For Data Centers Is Running Out. Blue Owl is the loosest lender in the universe, and if it’s having trouble raising money, everybody will very soon. Investors are aggressively dumping Oracle because it keeps trying to build more data centers for OpenAI, a company that does not have the money to pay for its compute. AI Is Wearing Out Its Welcome, and the AI Bubble Narrative Is Impossible To Ignore It used to be (back in September, at least) that you could announce a big, stupid deal with OpenAI and see a 40% stock bump. Now the markets are suddenly thinking "huh, how is it gonna pay that?" Oracle's stock also got dumped because it increased capital expenditures in its latest quarter to $12 billion, on analyst expectations of $8.4 billion. And the other key thread is the year 2026. Next year is meant to be the year that everything changes. It was meant to be the year that OpenAI had a gigawatt of data centers built with Broadcom and AMD, and when Stargate Abilene's 8 buildings were fully built and energized. 2026 is meant to be the year that OpenAI opened Stargate UAE, too. Here in reality, absolutely none of this is happening, and I believe that 2026 is the year when everything begins to collapse. In today's piece, I'm going to line up the sharp objects sitting right next to an increasingly-wobbling AI bubble, and why everything hinges on a looming cash crunch for OpenAI, AI data centers, those funding AI data centers, and venture capital itself.
December 22, 2025 at 5:55 PM
edzitron.com
NVIDIA's revenues from customers spending less than $6bn a quarter is collapsing just as it becomes difficult for large customers buying billions of GPUs to raise debt. NVIDIA is almost entirely reliable on a few big customers, and I'm not sure how long they last.
wheresyoured.at/premium-how-...
I realize I've thrown a lot of numbers at you, so I'm gonna make this really simple: NVIDIA's revenue is now largely dependent on four customers, and considering Meta, Google, Oracle and CoreWeave have all raised tens of billions of dollars of debt in the last year, it's safe to say that these GPUs are being bought with debt. Remember, hyperscalers buy in bulk. Otherwise, NVIDIA is selling billions of dollars of GPUs — around 2.39GW worth by my estimates — to companies building data centers in the 25MW to 300MW range, and these projects, at best, take months if not years to energize and generate revenue. Remember, the majority of these projects are likely debt-funded too. And, most crucially, based on NVIDIA's sales and customer concentration, the amount of new data center builds is decreasing. Though my modeling around revenue-to-megawatts is a little rough, there's no way to avoid the fact that diversified customers are buying less GPUs, which suggests they are building or retrofitting less data centers. If I'm wrong, why has NVIDIA's diversified revenue collapsed? Diversified revenue has gone from $30.8 billion in Q1 FY2026 to $22.2 billion in Q3 2026 as overall revenue increased by $12.9 billion (from $44 billion to $57 billion). This number sours further when you focus specifically on data center revenue — which, as a reminder, is 89% of NVIDIA's revenue! — which collapsed from $25.89 billion in Q1 FY2026 to $16.44 billion in Q3 FY2026. So What Does This All Mean? By the looks of it, NVIDIA's "regular" AI GPU customers — those building normal-sized data centers that don't require loans from multiple banks — are spending less on GPUs. I recognize that there could also be large customers (hyperscalers) who are buying a lot of GPUs but accounting for less than 10% of NVIDIA's revenue. Nevertheless, NVIDIA's revenues are becoming increasingly-dependent on customers that can afford to spend $6 billion to $12 billion per quarter. Realistically, there are only a few remaining parties that can afford this: Oracle, which is having trouble raising debt, and has created shockwaves through the stock market thanks to its increasing liabilities and dwindling cashflow. Blue Owl, which is pulling out of helping Oracle raise debt. OpenAI, which actually can't afford to buy anything and relies on Oracle and other parties to do so on its behalf. Microsoft, which has pulled back on data center construction and has GPUs sitting in inventory it cannot turn on. Meta, which had to do financial alchemy to close a $30 billion off-balance-sheet SPV with Blue Owl, which is pulling out of raising data center debt. CoreWeave, which is an unprofitable ticking time bomb of debt that has relied upon Blue Owl to raise debt. Google, which has just signed a deal with Anthropic to use "up to one million" of its TPUs, is working on a deal to rent TPUs to Meta, and has spent the best part of a year telling everybody how good its TPUs are — and whether they are or not is immaterial, because Google is clearly signaling it wants to spend less with NVIDIA. Amazon, which is rumored to be investing $10 billion in OpenAI as a means of getting it to use its Trainium chips and claims Anthropic will use one million of them by the end of 2025. Resellers like Supermicro and Dell, who do not appear to be doing sales that would suggest they can continually shift $6bn to $12bn of GPUs a quarter. While this might seem like a formidable list, every party is making some sort of sound that says "we don't want to buy GPUs forever." Elsewhere, fewer customers are interested in (or able to afford) to buy GPUs at the rate that NVIDIA needs to sell them, likely because the flow of capital is decreasing and AI is yet to prove any actual economic value beyond selling these god damn GPUs. If I'm wrong, then NVIDIA will need to show a rapid and dramatic increase in diversified revenue, to the tune of $5 billion to $10 billion, in its next quarterly revenue. And we still have the problem I've been going on about for the last month: there isn't enough actual, real capacity built to house all of these GPUs, which means that the remaining customers are likely buying and warehousing them as they wait for construction to finish and power to connect. New data center capacity is not being built at the rate that NVIDIA is selling GPUs, and it's becoming clear that banks are no longer as interested in funding the massive loans necessary to build the infrastructure to install them. Once we turn them on, we still have no firm grasp on the actual margins behind providing AI compute — and all signs seem to point to these AI data centers being very, very unprofitable. And then you get to the other problem — that the customers of AI compute are mostly unprofitable AI model labs providing unprofitable services to unprofitable AI companies, and the funding behind them is also collapsing. I can truly see 2026 being the year that the bubble bursts. AI does not have the margins or performance or productivity gains that underpin any major technology revolution, and the only "innovation" appears to be in how many bankers and private equity firms can be conned into sinking money into the least-profitable software and hardware ever made.
December 22, 2025 at 6:14 PM
dreddieclark.bsky.social
Publishing industry and then, as a flow-on, bookstores.

The social pressure on bluesky to support local bookstores is extremely high, but the reality is a lot of queer books make print in small runs if they're not digital exclusive and very few bookstores stock them.
arkhamlibrarian.bsky.social Rebecca Baumann @arkhamlibrarian.bsky.social · 12d
Massive (but typical) failure of the publishing industry to recognize the demand for queer books and for PHYSICAL PRINT COPIES of books. #BookHistoryLive
thefrankiedlc.news Frankie de la Cretaz @thefrankiedlc.news · 12d
NEW: It’s not just readers that suffer due to Harlequin’s mismanagement of the' Heated Rivalry' books. Reid misses out on royalties, & booksellers miss out on commissions—which is especially painful during the holiday season when many small businesses make the bulk of their money.
December 11, 2025 at 8:23 PM
gerberkawasaki.bsky.social
#Netflix has the cash flow credit, and stock value to pull this off and it becomes the absolute king of entertainment! What a coup.
December 8, 2025 at 4:52 PM
admiralwaltz.bsky.social
| #GorLore |

"Ratman"

[1]
The footfalls of Western Thanalan, a hidden, crumbling path... the waters flow quietly, echoing off the walls. V'runa stands stock still. Footsteps stopping in an a near-instant. Her ears twitching as she focuses on her surroundings... She turns. Finding her target, hidden behind a pillar. She can only assume one person it could be, someone she noticed walked in a particular, stealthy manner as if it was natural... "I know you're there, ratman. I do not appreciate being stalked!" She growls... He steps out, his walking oddly silent even within the water. "Y'know, you wouldn't be the first to call me that." He softly shouts back, a hint of humour mixed with very mild frustration on his tongue. the haughty midlander struts up to the Miqo'tan swordswoman. A hand on his hip as he waves his wrist with a smile. "First off, my name is Thancred." She knew his name, Louisoix had detailed him on their way through Thanalan like a proud father. "Second: My apologies for following you in such a manner..." Her brow furrowed in mild annoyance at his smirked apology... "I simply had to see the woman that caught Louisoix's eye enough for him to drag her all the way here."
December 7, 2025 at 8:49 AM
sixesalltheway.bsky.social
There's something like 250k long-term empty houses in the UK, that ought to be a good place to start.

Agreed about 'affordable' houses to buy, focus ought to be more on publicly owned housing stock.

Govt can also speed-up processing of applicants & rejoin the EU. Reducing the flow helps too.
December 5, 2025 at 7:16 AM
fransham.bsky.social
18. I've used this share of the stock from the UN as the assumption about the flow of British citizens' emigration patterns of non-OECD countries. With that RoW emigration starts low at around 10% and rises gradually through to 2024. This is very finger in the wind, but defensible.
December 4, 2025 at 5:42 PM
robertscotthorton.bsky.social
BMWs, Audis, Mercedes: a massive fleet of brand-new top of the line luxury automobiles flow from Germany to Moscow, where they stock the garages of oligarchs in Putin's inner circle. A flagrant violation of EU sanctions. How does it happen?
Luxusautos für Moskau: Wie Münchner Geschäftemacher Putins Freunde beliefern
Staatsanwälte und Zollfahnder verfolgen immer mehr Geschäfte, mit denen die verhängten Sanktionen ausgehebelt werden sollen. Allein in München geht es um Millionensummen.
www.sueddeutsche.de
December 3, 2025 at 1:54 AM
groboudo.bsky.social
Thinking more financial terms, where stock refers to equity - a persistent defined asset with variable value - while flow refers to the movement of (typically cash) value across boundaries.
Which is still dehumanizing because we use similar terms to describe livestock for mostly financial reasons
December 3, 2025 at 3:25 PM
stevoyah.bsky.social
Its alot of eb and flow. Some days good others meh lol I try not to put too much stock into the numbers of social

Also how could anyone hate you?🥺
December 2, 2025 at 6:28 PM
scgriffith.bsky.social
to be clear, what he's saying is that germany needs mass deportations, which as we can see from the US in practice means an ethnic cleansing campaign. "flow" refers to rates of immigration and "stock" refers to the currently existing immigrant population
jwmason.bsky.social JW Mason @jwmason.bsky.social · 23d
The thing about immigration is that xenophobia and racism are the elite centrist position. Here's a senior fellow at Brookings, spouse of CRFP head Maya MacGuineas, explaining the mere presence of foreigners in Germany is a "problem" that someone must solve with "speed and determination."
November 30, 2025 at 3:18 PM
plumeria.bsky.social
Sometimes you just don't. The drive and confidence just disappears and that's okay. You might not feel it for awhile, but perhaps it'll come back later? The flow of ideas means the skill and desire is still there. You might feel better writing down your ideas to take stock and come back later.
December 1, 2025 at 11:40 PM
peark.es
Next up is cash flow. Higher A/R and higher inventories are both uses of cash; you back both out of net income (accrual accounting) to get to operating cash flow (cash accounting). So this is just a rehash of the points already made. An honest analysis would be transparent about that. This isn’t.
The Cash Flow Signal Operating cash flow provides the third verification point. Nvidia generated $14.5 billion in cash from operations during Q3 fiscal 2026 while reporting net income of $19.3 billion. The resulting 75.1% cash conversion ratio falls well below semiconductor industry standards. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world's largest contract chip manufacturer, consistently maintains operating cash flow at 100% to 105% of net income. Advanced Micro Devices posts 97%. Even Intel, currently executing a costly turnaround strategy, maintains 91%. A 75% conversion ratio indicates working capital consumption. The specific components appear in the cash flow statement: increases in accounts receivable and inventory absorbed $11.2 billion in cash during the quarter. Meanwhile, Nvidia deployed $9.5 billion on share repurchases. This capital allocation decision merits scrutiny. A company prioritizing stock buybacks over cash collection signals confidence in reported earnings but reveals actual cash generation insufficient to support both shareholder returns and operational growth.
November 23, 2025 at 1:57 AM
peark.es
In the next paragraph we get a blurb on Michael Burry, but instead of being germane to cash flow it’s referencing A/R again…looks like somebody got sloppy with their editing. This is no new analysis just appeal to authority in order to wow the reader.
Veteran short seller Michael Burry, known for predicting the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, has publicly disclosed put option positions on Nvidia with a strike price of $140 and March 2026 expiration. The position implies conviction that Nvidia's stock will fall at least 25% within four months-precisely the timeframe when aging receivables would force reserve increases and potential restatements.
November 23, 2025 at 1:59 AM
bargdaffy.bsky.social
These LLC are also heavy into buying Stock in McDs' Corporation because that is where the Profits flow to. Individual Franchises may be squeezed by the Model because McDs' controls the Price on the Lease (Real Estate Function) and the Price of the Food (Wholesaler Function).
a clown with red hair and white face paint is holding a yellow item
ALT: a clown with red hair and white face paint is holding a yellow item
media.tenor.com
November 18, 2025 at 12:24 AM
rogierswierstra.bsky.social
Really a stock is a point q in configuration space Q and a flow is a tangent vector in TqQ and to compare flows at different stocks you need the concept of a connection ...
November 4, 2025 at 6:50 PM
tomashirstecon.bsky.social
The problem lots of people have when thinking about tax (and I suffer from this often) is that we think about (existing) stock rather than (dynamic) flow. That is, we tend to think more about how changes impact people today rather than how they shift incentives in future.
November 3, 2025 at 12:56 PM
redcap.press
Big updates to our Shop Manager!

- Import magic items in bulk, by name or rarity
- Simulate shifting stock with table randomization (tied to real-world day)
- All tables can now be sorted
- The GM flow is improved, with no dedicated "Edit Mode"

Check it out! redcap.press/shop-manager

#dnd #ttrpg​
November 3, 2025 at 6:09 PM
realbadcobra.bsky.social
If you haven't done so yet, and have any ability to do so, stock up on supplies, and prepare for a general strike.

Rabbit and chicken and 2 very fast grow meats, and a backyard garden can produce enough greens for a small family.

Shut the country down. Kill the flow of money.
November 3, 2025 at 5:40 AM
janelovesrain.bsky.social
Explain how that “flow through” occurs. Is our that we get to watch a CEO pay increase—“Look Susie, a very rich man is getting more money” oh yay? Or read that a corp has used its increased profits to buy back its stock?
October 30, 2025 at 4:05 PM
sharonk.bsky.social
it genuinely is a stock vs flow thing that people find it hard to wrap their head around
October 29, 2025 at 5:33 PM
leftistlawyer.com
Sudan is also OUR genocide. We could end the genocide in Sudan if we stopped the flow of weapons and money to the UAE. But just like with Saudi Arabia and Israel, we care about dollars more than lives. The Lockheed and RTX stock prices must only go up.
October 28, 2025 at 3:18 PM
satoshicitadel.bsky.social
$BTC: Mispriced for 15 years, yet growing 100% annually 📈. Guess some folks are playing 'How wrong can we be?' with $100T markets 🤷‍♂️. Meanwhile, the Stock-to-Flow model is out here saying 'Hold my halving' 🚀💎. , ❤️ u plan B!

#Bitcoin #Crypto #BTC #StockToFlow 🌕 #S2f #planB
November 21, 2024 at 4:43 PM
cscy-bot.bsky.social
generative co-pilot that translates complex systems representations - such as causal loop and stock-flow diagrams - into natural language (and vice-versa), allowing users to explore and build models without extensive technical training.
Rooted in [4/8 of https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.05857v1]
March 11, 2025 at 7:12 AM
jasoncoxnc.bsky.social
Oh cool. The airline stimulus package doubled from 25 to 50 billion. Interesting to see the amounts that come to small businesses that didn’t enjoy pumping cash flow into stock buybacks for years..
November 23, 2024 at 9:10 PM