[3/...]
2️⃣ We find that the upper-atmospheric circulation trendsconsist of at least two regional responses, with wave patterns over the US-Atlantic and Eurasia sectors. These waves are preceeded by distinct SST and OLR anomalies three weeks prior, yet these teleconnections are missing in CMIP6.
2️⃣ We find that the upper-atmospheric circulation trendsconsist of at least two regional responses, with wave patterns over the US-Atlantic and Eurasia sectors. These waves are preceeded by distinct SST and OLR anomalies three weeks prior, yet these teleconnections are missing in CMIP6.
November 18, 2025 at 1:24 PM
[3/...]
2️⃣ We find that the upper-atmospheric circulation trendsconsist of at least two regional responses, with wave patterns over the US-Atlantic and Eurasia sectors. These waves are preceeded by distinct SST and OLR anomalies three weeks prior, yet these teleconnections are missing in CMIP6.
2️⃣ We find that the upper-atmospheric circulation trendsconsist of at least two regional responses, with wave patterns over the US-Atlantic and Eurasia sectors. These waves are preceeded by distinct SST and OLR anomalies three weeks prior, yet these teleconnections are missing in CMIP6.
[2/...]
1️⃣ Over the past decades, parts of the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes have shown strong summertime changes in upper-atmospheric circulation and temperature extremes. Concerningly, some of these observed trends fall outside of historical CMIP6 simulations.
1️⃣ Over the past decades, parts of the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes have shown strong summertime changes in upper-atmospheric circulation and temperature extremes. Concerningly, some of these observed trends fall outside of historical CMIP6 simulations.
November 18, 2025 at 1:22 PM
[2/...]
1️⃣ Over the past decades, parts of the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes have shown strong summertime changes in upper-atmospheric circulation and temperature extremes. Concerningly, some of these observed trends fall outside of historical CMIP6 simulations.
1️⃣ Over the past decades, parts of the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes have shown strong summertime changes in upper-atmospheric circulation and temperature extremes. Concerningly, some of these observed trends fall outside of historical CMIP6 simulations.
🟥 We've started a new project under the @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social (C3S) for downscaling CMIP6 Climate Projections using #AI techniques to complement the @wcrpclimate.bsky.social CORDEX Regional Climate Models Simulations.
Led by our regular partner @ifca.es.
➡️ More: predictia.es/en/blog/2025...
Led by our regular partner @ifca.es.
➡️ More: predictia.es/en/blog/2025...
November 17, 2025 at 10:29 AM
🟥 We've started a new project under the @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social (C3S) for downscaling CMIP6 Climate Projections using #AI techniques to complement the @wcrpclimate.bsky.social CORDEX Regional Climate Models Simulations.
Led by our regular partner @ifca.es.
➡️ More: predictia.es/en/blog/2025...
Led by our regular partner @ifca.es.
➡️ More: predictia.es/en/blog/2025...
durchaus ein Baustein für den höheren SSP3-7.0 Pfad, regionale Konflikte, jeder verfeuert seine Kohle so gut er kann; realistisch reden wir nur noch über drei SSP-Szenarien des CMIP6: den guten SSP1-2.6, der uns unter dem höheren Paris-Ziel halten würde (da niedrigere ist mausetot)
November 16, 2025 at 9:44 AM
durchaus ein Baustein für den höheren SSP3-7.0 Pfad, regionale Konflikte, jeder verfeuert seine Kohle so gut er kann; realistisch reden wir nur noch über drei SSP-Szenarien des CMIP6: den guten SSP1-2.6, der uns unter dem höheren Paris-Ziel halten würde (da niedrigere ist mausetot)
Future climate assessment in the Mediterranean region using downscaled CMIP6 data
Frontiers
www.frontiersin.org/journals/cli...
Frontiers
www.frontiersin.org/journals/cli...
Frontiers | Future climate assessment in the Mediterranean region using downscaled CMIP6 data
Due to the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing, the Mediterranean has been labeled a “climate change hot spot.” Previous studies hav...
www.frontiersin.org
November 13, 2025 at 9:20 AM
Future climate assessment in the Mediterranean region using downscaled CMIP6 data
Frontiers
www.frontiersin.org/journals/cli...
Frontiers
www.frontiersin.org/journals/cli...
Future Impacts of Climate Change on Global Fire Weather: Insight from Weighted CMIP6 Multimodel Ensembles
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
journals.ametsoc.org
November 12, 2025 at 6:46 PM
Future Impacts of Climate Change on Global Fire Weather: Insight from Weighted CMIP6 Multimodel Ensembles
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
New paper in GRL @agu.org!
Using #CMIP6 large ensembles, we find that most climate models project an increase in #ENSO frequency and intensity under anthropogenic #warming — driven by a shift toward Eastern Pacific El Niño pattern and amplified variability overall.
🌎 Read: doi.org/10.1029/2025...
Using #CMIP6 large ensembles, we find that most climate models project an increase in #ENSO frequency and intensity under anthropogenic #warming — driven by a shift toward Eastern Pacific El Niño pattern and amplified variability overall.
🌎 Read: doi.org/10.1029/2025...
Increase in ENSO Frequency and Intensity Under 20th and 21st Century Warming: Insights From CMIP6 Large Ensembles
ENSO frequency and intensity increase in the 20th $20\text{th}$ and 21st $21\text{st}$ centuries in large ensembles and these changes scale with anthropogenic forcing
The frequencies and intensit...
doi.org
November 12, 2025 at 5:41 PM
New paper in GRL @agu.org!
Using #CMIP6 large ensembles, we find that most climate models project an increase in #ENSO frequency and intensity under anthropogenic #warming — driven by a shift toward Eastern Pacific El Niño pattern and amplified variability overall.
🌎 Read: doi.org/10.1029/2025...
Using #CMIP6 large ensembles, we find that most climate models project an increase in #ENSO frequency and intensity under anthropogenic #warming — driven by a shift toward Eastern Pacific El Niño pattern and amplified variability overall.
🌎 Read: doi.org/10.1029/2025...
En este proyecto nuestro rol fue el de obtener, mediante técnicas de #downscaling estadístico y para tres modelos del #CMIP6, escenarios locales de cambio climático para su posterior uso en otras modelizaciones para la adaptación y #mitigación del cambio climático en Distender_eu. 📈
November 12, 2025 at 5:33 PM
En este proyecto nuestro rol fue el de obtener, mediante técnicas de #downscaling estadístico y para tres modelos del #CMIP6, escenarios locales de cambio climático para su posterior uso en otras modelizaciones para la adaptación y #mitigación del cambio climático en Distender_eu. 📈
Climate change projections using CMIP6 GCMs and downscaling approaches in the Upper Wabe Shebele Basin, Ethiopia
->Nature | More from Lil Dr Glen EcoChat at BigEarthData.ai
->Nature | More from Lil Dr Glen EcoChat at BigEarthData.ai
Climate change projections using CMIP6 GCMs and downscaling approaches in the Upper Wabe Shebele Basin, Ethiopia
In this study, a detailed comparative assessment of the SDSM and CMhyd models were formulated to identify the most reliable tool for generating high-resolution climate projections. This was incorporated examining the performance of each downscaling method using calibration and validation...
www.nature.com
November 12, 2025 at 9:37 AM
#MarineCloud reflectivity declined by 2.8%/decade in the NE Pacific and N Atlantic, enhancing shortwave absorption beyond #CMIP6 projections. An improved aerosol-climate model shows #aerosol reductions may account for ~69% of the decline @uwenvironment.bsky.social www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reduced aerosol pollution diminished cloud reflectivity over the North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific - Nature Communications
Marine cloud reflectivity declined by 2.8%/decade (2003-2022) over the NE Pacific and North Atlantic, enhancing shortwave absorption beyond climate model projections. Here, the authors use an improved...
www.nature.com
November 10, 2025 at 3:18 PM
#MarineCloud reflectivity declined by 2.8%/decade in the NE Pacific and N Atlantic, enhancing shortwave absorption beyond #CMIP6 projections. An improved aerosol-climate model shows #aerosol reductions may account for ~69% of the decline @uwenvironment.bsky.social www.nature.com/articles/s41...
According to the authors: "The study uses four conceptual hydrological models combined with a degree-day snow module to simulate the streamflow. A multimodel ensemble of CMIP6 GCMs was created using Bayesian model averaging, ...
November 10, 2025 at 2:37 PM
According to the authors: "The study uses four conceptual hydrological models combined with a degree-day snow module to simulate the streamflow. A multimodel ensemble of CMIP6 GCMs was created using Bayesian model averaging, ...
Future climate assessment in the Mediterranean region using downscaled CMIP6 data
Frontiers
www.frontiersin.org/journals/cli...
Frontiers
www.frontiersin.org/journals/cli...
Frontiers | Future climate assessment in the Mediterranean region using downscaled CMIP6 data
Due to the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing, the Mediterranean has been labeled a “climate change hot spot.” Previous studies hav...
www.frontiersin.org
November 8, 2025 at 8:39 AM
Future climate assessment in the Mediterranean region using downscaled CMIP6 data
Frontiers
www.frontiersin.org/journals/cli...
Frontiers
www.frontiersin.org/journals/cli...
[2/8] À partir de 16 modèles CMIP6, les chercheurs simulent deux scénarios climatiques. D’ici 2100, la lumière atteignant l’océan pourrait croître de 55 à 160%. Ce changement bouleverse la photosynthèse marine et redéfinit la géographie écologique des hautes latitudes. #geography #Arctic
November 8, 2025 at 6:29 AM
[2/8] À partir de 16 modèles CMIP6, les chercheurs simulent deux scénarios climatiques. D’ici 2100, la lumière atteignant l’océan pourrait croître de 55 à 160%. Ce changement bouleverse la photosynthèse marine et redéfinit la géographie écologique des hautes latitudes. #geography #Arctic
A bit of background. In CMIP6 no models included interactive ice sheets, and while different groups made slightly different assumptions about ice sheet mass balance, none had changes that matched the observations (from GRACE or in situ measurements).
November 7, 2025 at 9:31 PM
A bit of background. In CMIP6 no models included interactive ice sheets, and while different groups made slightly different assumptions about ice sheet mass balance, none had changes that matched the observations (from GRACE or in situ measurements).
Unfortunately not. These were from the CMIP6 ESGF - was really a shame that not many models extended beyond 2100.
November 7, 2025 at 12:16 PM
Unfortunately not. These were from the CMIP6 ESGF - was really a shame that not many models extended beyond 2100.
A sneak peak of hopefully what is to come in CMIP7. We ran two CMIP6 climate models in CO2 emissions driven mode to 2300 - and the responses in the long term are very different.
Preprint: egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
Preprint: egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
November 7, 2025 at 11:48 AM
A sneak peak of hopefully what is to come in CMIP7. We ran two CMIP6 climate models in CO2 emissions driven mode to 2300 - and the responses in the long term are very different.
Preprint: egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
Preprint: egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
☀️ Preparing cities for extreme heat: At #ICUC12, @b-kode.bsky.social unveiled a way to build future weather scenarios—beyond historic averages—combining CMIP6, ERA5-Land & urban microclimate models. Plan for extremes, not averages. Follow @eu-minorityreport.bsky.social #ClimateResilience #ICUC12
November 6, 2025 at 2:16 PM
☀️ Preparing cities for extreme heat: At #ICUC12, @b-kode.bsky.social unveiled a way to build future weather scenarios—beyond historic averages—combining CMIP6, ERA5-Land & urban microclimate models. Plan for extremes, not averages. Follow @eu-minorityreport.bsky.social #ClimateResilience #ICUC12
'Reduced aerosol pollution diminished cloud reflectivity over the North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific'
Much more in observations than in CMIP6 climate models!:
1/
Much more in observations than in CMIP6 climate models!:
1/
November 6, 2025 at 12:08 AM
'Reduced aerosol pollution diminished cloud reflectivity over the North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific'
Much more in observations than in CMIP6 climate models!:
1/
Much more in observations than in CMIP6 climate models!:
1/
Two years ago we had a commentary on how future scenario databases could look. We suggested a more CMIP like approach, with peer reviewed scenario protocols, an open process & open data, community efforts, etc, to encourage (probably not solve) inclusivity.
www.nature.com/articles/s44...
1/
www.nature.com/articles/s44...
1/
November 4, 2025 at 8:23 AM
Two years ago we had a commentary on how future scenario databases could look. We suggested a more CMIP like approach, with peer reviewed scenario protocols, an open process & open data, community efforts, etc, to encourage (probably not solve) inclusivity.
www.nature.com/articles/s44...
1/
www.nature.com/articles/s44...
1/
A few comments on our recent paper:
1- The high end is based on the SSP585 scenario which was the only one available until 2300 in CMIP6, but according to the reduced-complexity models used in IPCC-AR6, the SSP370 scenario should also cross the limit beyond which most ice shelves become non-viable.
1- The high end is based on the SSP585 scenario which was the only one available until 2300 in CMIP6, but according to the reduced-complexity models used in IPCC-AR6, the SSP370 scenario should also cross the limit beyond which most ice shelves become non-viable.
A link to access the full paper: rdcu.be/eNkZa
Ocean warming threatens the viability of 60% of Antarctic ice shelves
Nature - The viability of Antarctic ice shelves under low rates and high rates of global warming is modelled to estimate when it will become unfeasible for the ice shelves to maintain their...
rdcu.be
November 4, 2025 at 6:38 AM
A few comments on our recent paper:
1- The high end is based on the SSP585 scenario which was the only one available until 2300 in CMIP6, but according to the reduced-complexity models used in IPCC-AR6, the SSP370 scenario should also cross the limit beyond which most ice shelves become non-viable.
1- The high end is based on the SSP585 scenario which was the only one available until 2300 in CMIP6, but according to the reduced-complexity models used in IPCC-AR6, the SSP370 scenario should also cross the limit beyond which most ice shelves become non-viable.
Would you assume that assessments like this are using values from CMIP6, with policy adjusted but not climate inputs like sensitivity?
November 3, 2025 at 1:30 AM
Would you assume that assessments like this are using values from CMIP6, with policy adjusted but not climate inputs like sensitivity?
I would not describe them as IPCC economic models. IPCC reports describe the literature. Same with climate models. They were developed by research groups, not by the IPCC. AR6 describes the results of CMIP6 model outcomes 🫠.
October 31, 2025 at 8:16 PM
I would not describe them as IPCC economic models. IPCC reports describe the literature. Same with climate models. They were developed by research groups, not by the IPCC. AR6 describes the results of CMIP6 model outcomes 🫠.
New blog post from IPUMS DHS on how to create forecasts of child nutrition using DHS, CHIRTS, and CHC-CMIP6 data - check it out at tech.popdata.org/dhs-research...
Using Historical and Projected Climate Data to Forecast Child Malnutrition
In the final post in our series on future estimation we create a model to predict child malnutrition and plug in projected climate scenario data to predict a future level of child malnutrition.
tech.popdata.org
October 31, 2025 at 3:21 PM
New blog post from IPUMS DHS on how to create forecasts of child nutrition using DHS, CHIRTS, and CHC-CMIP6 data - check it out at tech.popdata.org/dhs-research...
However, these strengths are offset by significant vulnerabilities & risks, which threaten the foundations of Russia's economic model:
🚫 Sanctions
💸 Inability to mobilise sufficient investment for development
🌡️ Effects of thawing permafrost threaten existing infrastructure
🚫 Sanctions
💸 Inability to mobilise sufficient investment for development
🌡️ Effects of thawing permafrost threaten existing infrastructure
October 30, 2025 at 2:39 PM
However, these strengths are offset by significant vulnerabilities & risks, which threaten the foundations of Russia's economic model:
🚫 Sanctions
💸 Inability to mobilise sufficient investment for development
🌡️ Effects of thawing permafrost threaten existing infrastructure
🚫 Sanctions
💸 Inability to mobilise sufficient investment for development
🌡️ Effects of thawing permafrost threaten existing infrastructure
Evaluating the performance of CMIP6 models in the Southern Temperate Zone with a multivariable integrated evaluation method - @frontiersin.bsky.social Marine Science
www.frontiersin.org/journals/mar...
www.frontiersin.org/journals/mar...
October 29, 2025 at 8:21 PM
Evaluating the performance of CMIP6 models in the Southern Temperate Zone with a multivariable integrated evaluation method - @frontiersin.bsky.social Marine Science
www.frontiersin.org/journals/mar...
www.frontiersin.org/journals/mar...