US payrolls rise, Fed holds
1m
The US economy added 130,000 jobs in January, unemployment fell to 4.3%, and the stronger-than-expected data boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates steady.
Good morning and welcome to Jobs Report Day in the US.
The consensus forecasts are for a monthly employment gain of 65,000, an unemployment rate of 4.4%, and a 3.7% annual increase in average hourly earnings.
Two additional factors to note:
• There is an unusually wide gap in individual surveyed…
The consensus forecasts are for a monthly employment gain of 65,000, an unemployment rate of 4.4%, and a 3.7% annual increase in average hourly earnings.
Two additional factors to note:
• There is an unusually wide gap in individual surveyed…
February 11, 2026 at 9:48 AM
Good morning and welcome to Jobs Report Day in the US.
The consensus forecasts are for a monthly employment gain of 65,000, an unemployment rate of 4.4%, and a 3.7% annual increase in average hourly earnings.
Two additional factors to note:
• There is an unusually wide gap in individual surveyed…
The consensus forecasts are for a monthly employment gain of 65,000, an unemployment rate of 4.4%, and a 3.7% annual increase in average hourly earnings.
Two additional factors to note:
• There is an unusually wide gap in individual surveyed…
…estimates, spanning from a job loss of 10,000 to a gain of nearly 140,000 jobs.
•There is an equally broad spectrum of opinions regarding the composition of this slowdown—specifically, the balance between supply-side constraints and cooling demand.
#economy #jobs #employment #unemployment #markets
•There is an equally broad spectrum of opinions regarding the composition of this slowdown—specifically, the balance between supply-side constraints and cooling demand.
#economy #jobs #employment #unemployment #markets
February 11, 2026 at 9:49 AM
…estimates, spanning from a job loss of 10,000 to a gain of nearly 140,000 jobs.
•There is an equally broad spectrum of opinions regarding the composition of this slowdown—specifically, the balance between supply-side constraints and cooling demand.
#economy #jobs #employment #unemployment #markets
•There is an equally broad spectrum of opinions regarding the composition of this slowdown—specifically, the balance between supply-side constraints and cooling demand.
#economy #jobs #employment #unemployment #markets
Also labor market has weakened over the last year.
Hires rate like 2011 is particularly worrisome, falling since Fed's hikes (figure).
Jobs have been stable for employed but tough for small share unemployed & wage growth has decelerated.
Today will revise 2024-'25 job growth ⬇️.
Hires rate like 2011 is particularly worrisome, falling since Fed's hikes (figure).
Jobs have been stable for employed but tough for small share unemployed & wage growth has decelerated.
Today will revise 2024-'25 job growth ⬇️.
February 11, 2026 at 1:24 PM
Also labor market has weakened over the last year.
Hires rate like 2011 is particularly worrisome, falling since Fed's hikes (figure).
Jobs have been stable for employed but tough for small share unemployed & wage growth has decelerated.
Today will revise 2024-'25 job growth ⬇️.
Hires rate like 2011 is particularly worrisome, falling since Fed's hikes (figure).
Jobs have been stable for employed but tough for small share unemployed & wage growth has decelerated.
Today will revise 2024-'25 job growth ⬇️.
1/6
According to Greg Ip, in the US economy today, "rewards are going disproportionately toward capital instead of labor. Profits have soared since the pandemic. The result: Capital is triumphant, while the average worker ekes out marginal gains."
www.wsj.com/economy/jobs...
According to Greg Ip, in the US economy today, "rewards are going disproportionately toward capital instead of labor. Profits have soared since the pandemic. The result: Capital is triumphant, while the average worker ekes out marginal gains."
www.wsj.com/economy/jobs...
The Big Money in Today’s Economy Is Going to Capital, Not Labor
Soaring profits and stocks funnel more of GDP toward companies, their top employees and shareholders. AI will intensify this trend.
www.wsj.com
February 11, 2026 at 5:03 AM
1/6
According to Greg Ip, in the US economy today, "rewards are going disproportionately toward capital instead of labor. Profits have soared since the pandemic. The result: Capital is triumphant, while the average worker ekes out marginal gains."
www.wsj.com/economy/jobs...
According to Greg Ip, in the US economy today, "rewards are going disproportionately toward capital instead of labor. Profits have soared since the pandemic. The result: Capital is triumphant, while the average worker ekes out marginal gains."
www.wsj.com/economy/jobs...
Happy Dec #JobsDay!
At 8:30 am ET, @usbls.bsky.social delivers one of the most-important signals abt how economy is changing
Forecasts’ center:
+55K jobs
Unemployment rate (UR) steady at 4.4%
Report will reflect normal, annual revision processes but fodder for disinfo:
bsky.app/profile/aaro...
At 8:30 am ET, @usbls.bsky.social delivers one of the most-important signals abt how economy is changing
Forecasts’ center:
+55K jobs
Unemployment rate (UR) steady at 4.4%
Report will reflect normal, annual revision processes but fodder for disinfo:
bsky.app/profile/aaro...
2. Annual Revisions for BLS Jobs Numbers Expected To Be Downward: The Causes Explained static1.squarespace.com/static/5bedb...
February 11, 2026 at 1:21 PM
Happy Dec #JobsDay!
At 8:30 am ET, @usbls.bsky.social delivers one of the most-important signals abt how economy is changing
Forecasts’ center:
+55K jobs
Unemployment rate (UR) steady at 4.4%
Report will reflect normal, annual revision processes but fodder for disinfo:
bsky.app/profile/aaro...
At 8:30 am ET, @usbls.bsky.social delivers one of the most-important signals abt how economy is changing
Forecasts’ center:
+55K jobs
Unemployment rate (UR) steady at 4.4%
Report will reflect normal, annual revision processes but fodder for disinfo:
bsky.app/profile/aaro...
Today is the day we’re told not to panic. Should be fun!
🎧 Payrolls land on a Wednesday — and the data isn’t looking great. Layoffs are rising and retail sales just stumbled. We break down what it means for the economy on this week’s Reuters Morning Bid podcast reut.rs/4bODxS7
Job jitters
Main Street is wobbling, from layoffs to weak retail sales.
reut.rs
February 11, 2026 at 11:37 AM
Today is the day we’re told not to panic. Should be fun!
Reposted by Michael D. McDonald
🎧 Payrolls land on a Wednesday — and the data isn’t looking great. Layoffs are rising and retail sales just stumbled. We break down what it means for the economy on this week’s Reuters Morning Bid podcast reut.rs/4bODxS7
Job jitters
Main Street is wobbling, from layoffs to weak retail sales.
reut.rs
February 11, 2026 at 11:36 AM
🎧 Payrolls land on a Wednesday — and the data isn’t looking great. Layoffs are rising and retail sales just stumbled. We break down what it means for the economy on this week’s Reuters Morning Bid podcast reut.rs/4bODxS7
As context, labor markets have been strong:
low unemployment rate,
high rate of worker job security with low rate of bosses firing staff (figure),
few working part time due to lack of full time offer,
wages growing,
high participation and employment rates for 25-54 year olds…
low unemployment rate,
high rate of worker job security with low rate of bosses firing staff (figure),
few working part time due to lack of full time offer,
wages growing,
high participation and employment rates for 25-54 year olds…
February 11, 2026 at 1:22 PM
As context, labor markets have been strong:
low unemployment rate,
high rate of worker job security with low rate of bosses firing staff (figure),
few working part time due to lack of full time offer,
wages growing,
high participation and employment rates for 25-54 year olds…
low unemployment rate,
high rate of worker job security with low rate of bosses firing staff (figure),
few working part time due to lack of full time offer,
wages growing,
high participation and employment rates for 25-54 year olds…