Will Jordan
@will-jordan.bsky.social
Dem pollster with GSG. Bakersfield native. @williamjordann on Twitter
Reposted by Will Jordan
Pres Obama is singularly popular in politics. Not every Dem has his charisma, but let's learn from him:
• Healthcare #1 issue
• Anti-war
• All-of-above energy strategy
• Working-class jobs (Detroit bailout)
• Follow public on cultural topics (marriage equality, border)
• Healthcare #1 issue
• Anti-war
• All-of-above energy strategy
• Working-class jobs (Detroit bailout)
• Follow public on cultural topics (marriage equality, border)
Zohran Mamdani has a higher favorability rating than Donald Trump, JD Vance or Chuck Schumer. The most popular political figures in America are Barack Obama and Bernie Sanders www.gelliottmorris.com/p/new-poll-d...
November 18, 2025 at 7:59 PM
Pres Obama is singularly popular in politics. Not every Dem has his charisma, but let's learn from him:
• Healthcare #1 issue
• Anti-war
• All-of-above energy strategy
• Working-class jobs (Detroit bailout)
• Follow public on cultural topics (marriage equality, border)
• Healthcare #1 issue
• Anti-war
• All-of-above energy strategy
• Working-class jobs (Detroit bailout)
• Follow public on cultural topics (marriage equality, border)
Pre-election prediction markets gave Sherrill 5% odds of a margin exceeding 14 points. The odds of this didn't change Sep-Nov despite Trump's approval rating dropping 5 points during that period.
November 18, 2025 at 8:09 PM
Pre-election prediction markets gave Sherrill 5% odds of a margin exceeding 14 points. The odds of this didn't change Sep-Nov despite Trump's approval rating dropping 5 points during that period.
I continue to love this simple survey question as a way to divide the public. It cuts across partisanship -- Rs may hate "the media" but they have engaged/attentive voters on favored platforms (Fox/X) just like Ds.
October 27, 2025 at 6:20 PM
I continue to love this simple survey question as a way to divide the public. It cuts across partisanship -- Rs may hate "the media" but they have engaged/attentive voters on favored platforms (Fox/X) just like Ds.
House battleground very different in 2026 vs 2018
'18
Rs defend 65 seats @ Trump+10/bluer
Ds defend 30 @ Clinton+10/redder
'26
Rs defend 30 seats @ Trump+10/bluer
Ds defend 62 @ Harris+10/redder
BUT
'18
Ds need 24 (37% of R defensive seats)
'26
Ds need 3 (10% of R defensive seats)
'18
Rs defend 65 seats @ Trump+10/bluer
Ds defend 30 @ Clinton+10/redder
'26
Rs defend 30 seats @ Trump+10/bluer
Ds defend 62 @ Harris+10/redder
BUT
'18
Ds need 24 (37% of R defensive seats)
'26
Ds need 3 (10% of R defensive seats)
August 7, 2025 at 2:34 AM
House battleground very different in 2026 vs 2018
'18
Rs defend 65 seats @ Trump+10/bluer
Ds defend 30 @ Clinton+10/redder
'26
Rs defend 30 seats @ Trump+10/bluer
Ds defend 62 @ Harris+10/redder
BUT
'18
Ds need 24 (37% of R defensive seats)
'26
Ds need 3 (10% of R defensive seats)
'18
Rs defend 65 seats @ Trump+10/bluer
Ds defend 30 @ Clinton+10/redder
'26
Rs defend 30 seats @ Trump+10/bluer
Ds defend 62 @ Harris+10/redder
BUT
'18
Ds need 24 (37% of R defensive seats)
'26
Ds need 3 (10% of R defensive seats)
Reposted by Will Jordan
In-party disaffection for Democrats is coming from the left, where voters are still likely to vote for Democrats in elections.
But among Republicans, it’s moderates and conservatives who rate the GOP image worse. That’s a bigger problem, because those voters are likelier to cross over and vote Dem.
But among Republicans, it’s moderates and conservatives who rate the GOP image worse. That’s a bigger problem, because those voters are likelier to cross over and vote Dem.
You may have seen polls recently showing the Democratic Party's favorability ratings are near historic lows.
That's true. But Dems still lead on the generic ballot, and ratings are not predictive of electoral performance this far ahead of a midterm.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/democratic...
That's true. But Dems still lead on the generic ballot, and ratings are not predictive of electoral performance this far ahead of a midterm.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/democratic...
July 29, 2025 at 2:18 PM
In-party disaffection for Democrats is coming from the left, where voters are still likely to vote for Democrats in elections.
But among Republicans, it’s moderates and conservatives who rate the GOP image worse. That’s a bigger problem, because those voters are likelier to cross over and vote Dem.
But among Republicans, it’s moderates and conservatives who rate the GOP image worse. That’s a bigger problem, because those voters are likelier to cross over and vote Dem.
This is a great question to ask. As someone left of center, if you think the answer is the second one, think hard about what needs to change or accept you believe there is basically no chance of Democrats controlling the Senate and passing real laws or nominating judges for the next decade or so.
July 29, 2025 at 2:25 PM
This is a great question to ask. As someone left of center, if you think the answer is the second one, think hard about what needs to change or accept you believe there is basically no chance of Democrats controlling the Senate and passing real laws or nominating judges for the next decade or so.
This new Navigator tracking survey has Democrats taking the lead over Trump in H2H on taxes, inflation, and the economy for the first time in I’m not sure how long (a while). Trump led on all 3 in late February.
May 3, 2025 at 1:53 PM
This new Navigator tracking survey has Democrats taking the lead over Trump in H2H on taxes, inflation, and the economy for the first time in I’m not sure how long (a while). Trump led on all 3 in late February.
Enjoyed this piece from @robflaherty.bsky.social Recently we have been studying a similar concept to the “opt in” and “opt out” voters in our polling, and I think it’s incredibly useful for understanding how current trends in political behavior and media habits are related…
April 30, 2025 at 2:03 PM
Enjoyed this piece from @robflaherty.bsky.social Recently we have been studying a similar concept to the “opt in” and “opt out” voters in our polling, and I think it’s incredibly useful for understanding how current trends in political behavior and media habits are related…
A striking set of results from Navigator Research. A lot of the time simple language tweaks make little difference, but here, voters are much more comfortable agreeing with a position once it criticizes the status quo.
April 25, 2025 at 1:35 PM
A striking set of results from Navigator Research. A lot of the time simple language tweaks make little difference, but here, voters are much more comfortable agreeing with a position once it criticizes the status quo.
Reposted by Will Jordan
To hold the power to pass major legislation over next decade, Democrats need to run the sort of candidates and be the sort of party that can win/defend Senate seats in every swing state and win seats in Trump+10/+15 states. It’s about necessity as much as opportunity.
April 8, 2025 at 3:04 PM
To hold the power to pass major legislation over next decade, Democrats need to run the sort of candidates and be the sort of party that can win/defend Senate seats in every swing state and win seats in Trump+10/+15 states. It’s about necessity as much as opportunity.
To hold the power to pass major legislation over next decade, Democrats need to run the sort of candidates and be the sort of party that can win/defend Senate seats in every swing state and win seats in Trump+10/+15 states. It’s about necessity as much as opportunity.
April 8, 2025 at 3:04 PM
To hold the power to pass major legislation over next decade, Democrats need to run the sort of candidates and be the sort of party that can win/defend Senate seats in every swing state and win seats in Trump+10/+15 states. It’s about necessity as much as opportunity.
Really seems British voters like to pretend to pollsters they live in a democracy with a proportional representation system until there’s an election and then, eventually, they voter for a party that can win in their constituency. Epistemologically difficult to read the mood.
April 8, 2025 at 10:53 AM
Really seems British voters like to pretend to pollsters they live in a democracy with a proportional representation system until there’s an election and then, eventually, they voter for a party that can win in their constituency. Epistemologically difficult to read the mood.
Reposted by Will Jordan
Harris was perceived as more liberal than Biden, Clinton, or Obama had been when they ran. And while people saw Trump as more conservative than they had previously, they were still closer ideologically to him (1.62 points away) than Harris (2.06). cooperativeelectionstudy.shinyapps.io/Ideology/
April 3, 2025 at 2:49 PM
Harris was perceived as more liberal than Biden, Clinton, or Obama had been when they ran. And while people saw Trump as more conservative than they had previously, they were still closer ideologically to him (1.62 points away) than Harris (2.06). cooperativeelectionstudy.shinyapps.io/Ideology/
Reposted by Will Jordan
Striking parallel between Trump and Liz Truss in terms of the power of economics/markets to turn even one’s own partisans against you.
Trump isn’t losing any support over his performative cruelty towards immigrants, but is rapidly losing Republicans over economic policy, stock market, inflation etc
Trump isn’t losing any support over his performative cruelty towards immigrants, but is rapidly losing Republicans over economic policy, stock market, inflation etc
April 4, 2025 at 1:17 PM
Striking parallel between Trump and Liz Truss in terms of the power of economics/markets to turn even one’s own partisans against you.
Trump isn’t losing any support over his performative cruelty towards immigrants, but is rapidly losing Republicans over economic policy, stock market, inflation etc
Trump isn’t losing any support over his performative cruelty towards immigrants, but is rapidly losing Republicans over economic policy, stock market, inflation etc
At the regional/county level, the 2023->2025 swing is very similar to the 2020->2024 swing.
(Notice Crawford and Harris both did relatively well in suburban WOW)
(Notice Crawford and Harris both did relatively well in suburban WOW)
April 2, 2025 at 3:02 PM
At the regional/county level, the 2023->2025 swing is very similar to the 2020->2024 swing.
(Notice Crawford and Harris both did relatively well in suburban WOW)
(Notice Crawford and Harris both did relatively well in suburban WOW)
So far there is not a clear relationship between special election turnout and Democratic over performance.
If anything higher salience/turnout specials like FL-01/06 have been better for Democrats than the average (average swing is +11%D so far in 2025)
If anything higher salience/turnout specials like FL-01/06 have been better for Democrats than the average (average swing is +11%D so far in 2025)
April 2, 2025 at 1:33 PM
So far there is not a clear relationship between special election turnout and Democratic over performance.
If anything higher salience/turnout specials like FL-01/06 have been better for Democrats than the average (average swing is +11%D so far in 2025)
If anything higher salience/turnout specials like FL-01/06 have been better for Democrats than the average (average swing is +11%D so far in 2025)
Reposted by Will Jordan
Incredible stat: the electorate in FL-01 and FL-06 skewed Republican by +28 and +21 in registration, yet the GOP only won by 14 points. This isn’t just Dem turnout: this is persuasion. Trump is losing ground with GOP voters, and Independents broke hard for Democrats.
April 2, 2025 at 12:48 PM
Incredible stat: the electorate in FL-01 and FL-06 skewed Republican by +28 and +21 in registration, yet the GOP only won by 14 points. This isn’t just Dem turnout: this is persuasion. Trump is losing ground with GOP voters, and Independents broke hard for Democrats.
While voter ID passed in Wisconsin the “yes” vote (62.7%) was narrowly under the lowest support ever recorded by Wisconsin’s premier pollster, suggesting some mix of:
-very lib electorate
-real support lower than polls
-thermostatic backlash
-voters do love 2 vote “no”
-very lib electorate
-real support lower than polls
-thermostatic backlash
-voters do love 2 vote “no”
April 2, 2025 at 12:48 PM
While voter ID passed in Wisconsin the “yes” vote (62.7%) was narrowly under the lowest support ever recorded by Wisconsin’s premier pollster, suggesting some mix of:
-very lib electorate
-real support lower than polls
-thermostatic backlash
-voters do love 2 vote “no”
-very lib electorate
-real support lower than polls
-thermostatic backlash
-voters do love 2 vote “no”
The Musk triple threat:
- universal name ID/salience
- infuriates liberal base, but not equally adored by conservative base
- backlash with marginal Republican voters
- universal name ID/salience
- infuriates liberal base, but not equally adored by conservative base
- backlash with marginal Republican voters
April 2, 2025 at 12:47 PM
The Musk triple threat:
- universal name ID/salience
- infuriates liberal base, but not equally adored by conservative base
- backlash with marginal Republican voters
- universal name ID/salience
- infuriates liberal base, but not equally adored by conservative base
- backlash with marginal Republican voters
Trump coalition relied on new support from apolitical/“disengaged” voters - if he still boasted outsize support from that ilk, a poll like this would be a place to look. Evidence so far points to the opposite: tariffs/Elon agenda excites the online fanboys but worries normies.
New Gallup issue approval data - economy now one of Trump’s worst issues, at -18, 59% disapprove
Unique/noisy data bc it’s all adults (not just voters) and RDD (all phone, traditional), but these points in some ways make the very bad econ ratings more interesting
Unique/noisy data bc it’s all adults (not just voters) and RDD (all phone, traditional), but these points in some ways make the very bad econ ratings more interesting
March 31, 2025 at 4:13 PM
Trump coalition relied on new support from apolitical/“disengaged” voters - if he still boasted outsize support from that ilk, a poll like this would be a place to look. Evidence so far points to the opposite: tariffs/Elon agenda excites the online fanboys but worries normies.
New Gallup issue approval data - economy now one of Trump’s worst issues, at -18, 59% disapprove
Unique/noisy data bc it’s all adults (not just voters) and RDD (all phone, traditional), but these points in some ways make the very bad econ ratings more interesting
Unique/noisy data bc it’s all adults (not just voters) and RDD (all phone, traditional), but these points in some ways make the very bad econ ratings more interesting
March 31, 2025 at 4:12 PM
New Gallup issue approval data - economy now one of Trump’s worst issues, at -18, 59% disapprove
Unique/noisy data bc it’s all adults (not just voters) and RDD (all phone, traditional), but these points in some ways make the very bad econ ratings more interesting
Unique/noisy data bc it’s all adults (not just voters) and RDD (all phone, traditional), but these points in some ways make the very bad econ ratings more interesting
This was a great slogan
March 30, 2025 at 4:58 PM
This was a great slogan
Search interest in “Tesla boycott” and “Tesla takedown
March 30, 2025 at 4:50 PM
Search interest in “Tesla boycott” and “Tesla takedown
Reposted by Will Jordan
Rising share of Democratic rank and file want congressional Ds to oppose Trump as much as possible, not find common ground
Jan 46% preferred opposition
Feb 65%
Now 70%
And Democrats who feel this way overwhelmingly say party could be doing more on this front
More: www.cbsnews.com/news/opinion...
Jan 46% preferred opposition
Feb 65%
Now 70%
And Democrats who feel this way overwhelmingly say party could be doing more on this front
More: www.cbsnews.com/news/opinion...
March 30, 2025 at 3:37 PM
Rising share of Democratic rank and file want congressional Ds to oppose Trump as much as possible, not find common ground
Jan 46% preferred opposition
Feb 65%
Now 70%
And Democrats who feel this way overwhelmingly say party could be doing more on this front
More: www.cbsnews.com/news/opinion...
Jan 46% preferred opposition
Feb 65%
Now 70%
And Democrats who feel this way overwhelmingly say party could be doing more on this front
More: www.cbsnews.com/news/opinion...
For the party to be truly relevant and have a shot at passing an agenda, it also needs to become the sort of party that can compete in places like Ohio and Texas. It’s always been true but was more complicated when there was more variance in politics (the odd survivor in MT or WV, etc)
Finally getting toward a decent visualization of why “reach” Senate races are so important. With Democrats having seen so much success in purple America, there is no where else to go.
March 30, 2025 at 3:07 AM
For the party to be truly relevant and have a shot at passing an agenda, it also needs to become the sort of party that can compete in places like Ohio and Texas. It’s always been true but was more complicated when there was more variance in politics (the odd survivor in MT or WV, etc)