Bill Goggin
@wgoggin.bsky.social
Macro, Money, and Fiscal Policy
Pinned
Bill Goggin
@wgoggin.bsky.social
· Apr 11
Make no mistake:
It’s not about tariffs, or trade, or industrialization, or China.
Or efficiency, or fraud, or making us wealthier.
It’s about settling scores, amassing and centralizing power, and total regime change.
Until the battle is engaged on those terms, there is no hope of stopping it.
It’s not about tariffs, or trade, or industrialization, or China.
Or efficiency, or fraud, or making us wealthier.
It’s about settling scores, amassing and centralizing power, and total regime change.
Until the battle is engaged on those terms, there is no hope of stopping it.
Reposted by Bill Goggin
My counterpoint: government not messing with the TV is more popular and straightforward than the ways they would erode elections. Evidence to that effect is that we are (at least) 25 years into the erosion of elections without meaningful pushback.
doomers: there’s not going to be elections in America ever again
me: if they can’t even cancel an entertainer due to popular pushback what the fuck makes you think they can cancel elections
me: if they can’t even cancel an entertainer due to popular pushback what the fuck makes you think they can cancel elections
September 23, 2025 at 1:46 AM
My counterpoint: government not messing with the TV is more popular and straightforward than the ways they would erode elections. Evidence to that effect is that we are (at least) 25 years into the erosion of elections without meaningful pushback.
“We are in a constitutional crisis where the centralization of power under direct control of the president and the disempowerment of independent administrative agencies, congress and the courts is moving forward at a truly breathtaking pace.”
NEW PIECE: I'm back, finally, and its a long one. Superficially this moment is a vindication for Central Bank Independence but at a deeper level, cutting the Fed off from its independent agency brethren is its death warrant.
www.crisesnotes.com/trump-vs-pow...
www.crisesnotes.com/trump-vs-pow...
Trump Vs. Powell: The Big Takeaways from Trump’s Assault on the Federal Reserve
Support Notes on the Crises!
Hello readers; I’m long overdue for major updates across a whole range of issues. I have continued to work full time on Notes on the Crises but the work of setting...
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August 22, 2025 at 1:58 PM
“We are in a constitutional crisis where the centralization of power under direct control of the president and the disempowerment of independent administrative agencies, congress and the courts is moving forward at a truly breathtaking pace.”
Reposted by Bill Goggin
I've read this three times and still have no idea what it means. Bet Wolf doesn't either.
June 24, 2025 at 7:43 AM
I've read this three times and still have no idea what it means. Bet Wolf doesn't either.
Reposted by Bill Goggin
'Increased investment will always be accompanied by increased saving, but it can never be preceded by it. Dishoarding and credit expansion provides not an alternative to increased saving, but a necessary preparation for it. It is the parent, not the twin, of increased saving.'
June 24, 2025 at 8:39 AM
'Increased investment will always be accompanied by increased saving, but it can never be preceded by it. Dishoarding and credit expansion provides not an alternative to increased saving, but a necessary preparation for it. It is the parent, not the twin, of increased saving.'
Reposted by Bill Goggin
'investment financed by savings' - loanable funds fallacy discredited by Keynes nearly a century ago and inconsistent w endogenous money
June 24, 2025 at 8:21 AM
'investment financed by savings' - loanable funds fallacy discredited by Keynes nearly a century ago and inconsistent w endogenous money
Reposted by Bill Goggin
The No Kings protests were the largest in the country's history and the media lied about them, this is a huge problem substack.com/home/post/p-... We need better media if democracy is to survive.
There Were Five Million People at No Kings Marches and the Media Lied About It (Except Stephen Colbert)
The No Kings marches on Saturday were likely the biggest day of protest in the history of the country and the media downplayed it almost everywhere.
substack.com
June 19, 2025 at 11:51 AM
The No Kings protests were the largest in the country's history and the media lied about them, this is a huge problem substack.com/home/post/p-... We need better media if democracy is to survive.
Reposted by Bill Goggin
With respect to @judah-grunstein.bsky.social, he's mistaking this for something it's very much not. Thread.
This is getting a lot of dunks, and the optics of rolling it out w/ CEOs & under Trump are admittedly bad.
But it responds to two long-identified problems for the US military in attracting tech and other outside talent: a comparatively unattractive institutional culture and all or nothing careers.
But it responds to two long-identified problems for the US military in attracting tech and other outside talent: a comparatively unattractive institutional culture and all or nothing careers.
Silicon Valley Execs Join the Army as Officers (But Won't Have to Attend Boot Camp)
The tech industry is fully on board, but the rank and file won't have to do time as grunts.
gizmodo.com
June 19, 2025 at 10:45 AM
With respect to @judah-grunstein.bsky.social, he's mistaking this for something it's very much not. Thread.
Reposted by Bill Goggin
we already live in a world of corporate coins
the future is already here, it’s just unevenly distributed
for example, kids around the world learn about not just money, but “value,” by playing video game that involve payments denominated in multiple corporate units of account
the future is already here, it’s just unevenly distributed
for example, kids around the world learn about not just money, but “value,” by playing video game that involve payments denominated in multiple corporate units of account
June 18, 2025 at 4:23 PM
we already live in a world of corporate coins
the future is already here, it’s just unevenly distributed
for example, kids around the world learn about not just money, but “value,” by playing video game that involve payments denominated in multiple corporate units of account
the future is already here, it’s just unevenly distributed
for example, kids around the world learn about not just money, but “value,” by playing video game that involve payments denominated in multiple corporate units of account
“The unitary executive theory has long been a darling of the Republican legal movement.”
Make that the “IMPERIAL unitary executive” and you have the driving force behind it all.
Failure to recognize and push back the plan will be our doom.
Make that the “IMPERIAL unitary executive” and you have the driving force behind it all.
Failure to recognize and push back the plan will be our doom.
"The theory ginned up by the GOP justices to bless their expansive vision of presidential power has some real shortcomings. Taken for all its worth, it could allow POTUS to blow up the economy by firing the Fed chair. So they had to announce an absurd exception to it." — @leahlitman.bsky.social
Law for lawlessness
The Supreme Court's Trump v. Wilcox ruling reveals its own outlawry while enabling the administration's.
www.publicnotice.co
May 26, 2025 at 3:29 PM
“The unitary executive theory has long been a darling of the Republican legal movement.”
Make that the “IMPERIAL unitary executive” and you have the driving force behind it all.
Failure to recognize and push back the plan will be our doom.
Make that the “IMPERIAL unitary executive” and you have the driving force behind it all.
Failure to recognize and push back the plan will be our doom.
“It’s hard to even think about what 80 trillion dollars of obligation to pay U.S. dollars even means. It shouldn’t surprise us then, given the size of these numbers, that whatever is going on with the dollar is found in the ‘dollar swap market’.”
It's finally out! Drink coffee, drink soda, take whatever stimulate you prefer. This is extremely long, even by my verbose standards. But its the absolute minimum word count I thought I could tell the "foreign exchange liquidity crisis" aspect of this with.
www.crisesnotes.com/is-the-trump...
www.crisesnotes.com/is-the-trump...
Is the Trump Tariff Financial Crisis A Crisis of the Dollar? It Doesn’t Seem to Be … Yet
SubscribeTip!
For those just tuning in: I wrote a piece a day for the first three days of this week on what we should probably now term the “Trump Tariff Financial Crisis”. I am coming to you Sunday ...
www.crisesnotes.com
April 13, 2025 at 2:11 PM
“It’s hard to even think about what 80 trillion dollars of obligation to pay U.S. dollars even means. It shouldn’t surprise us then, given the size of these numbers, that whatever is going on with the dollar is found in the ‘dollar swap market’.”
That’s the plan.
Repeat after me - there is no plan.
The entire global economy hangs on the whims of one guy.
Also, Howard Lutnick promised me all those millions of jobs screwing tiny screws into iPhones were coming back to the United States.
The entire global economy hangs on the whims of one guy.
Also, Howard Lutnick promised me all those millions of jobs screwing tiny screws into iPhones were coming back to the United States.
April 12, 2025 at 2:54 PM
That’s the plan.
“But the ‘Don’ is guilty of something more dangerous than the disruption of the global trading system. He is also threatening the stability of the global financial system.”
The real danger is that he doesn’t care. Indeed, blowing it up, is consistent with his ultimate desire for regime change.
The real danger is that he doesn’t care. Indeed, blowing it up, is consistent with his ultimate desire for regime change.
My latest….https://annpettifor.substack.com/p/will-the-us-bond-market-blow-up-the
Will the US bond market blow up the Global Casino?
The dangers of the United States Treasury as a low-grade ‘collateral factory’
annpettifor.substack.com
April 11, 2025 at 2:35 PM
“But the ‘Don’ is guilty of something more dangerous than the disruption of the global trading system. He is also threatening the stability of the global financial system.”
The real danger is that he doesn’t care. Indeed, blowing it up, is consistent with his ultimate desire for regime change.
The real danger is that he doesn’t care. Indeed, blowing it up, is consistent with his ultimate desire for regime change.
Make no mistake:
It’s not about tariffs, or trade, or industrialization, or China.
Or efficiency, or fraud, or making us wealthier.
It’s about settling scores, amassing and centralizing power, and total regime change.
Until the battle is engaged on those terms, there is no hope of stopping it.
It’s not about tariffs, or trade, or industrialization, or China.
Or efficiency, or fraud, or making us wealthier.
It’s about settling scores, amassing and centralizing power, and total regime change.
Until the battle is engaged on those terms, there is no hope of stopping it.
April 11, 2025 at 3:59 AM
Make no mistake:
It’s not about tariffs, or trade, or industrialization, or China.
Or efficiency, or fraud, or making us wealthier.
It’s about settling scores, amassing and centralizing power, and total regime change.
Until the battle is engaged on those terms, there is no hope of stopping it.
It’s not about tariffs, or trade, or industrialization, or China.
Or efficiency, or fraud, or making us wealthier.
It’s about settling scores, amassing and centralizing power, and total regime change.
Until the battle is engaged on those terms, there is no hope of stopping it.
Great conversation.
I would add only that “they” have decided that their two fears — falling birth rates and AI — cannot be addressed within existing democratic structures and institutions, the administrative state, laws, and norms.
And can only be addressed with an imperial unitary executive.
I would add only that “they” have decided that their two fears — falling birth rates and AI — cannot be addressed within existing democratic structures and institutions, the administrative state, laws, and norms.
And can only be addressed with an imperial unitary executive.
At the four hour, twenty eight minute mark of Hasan's livestream I joined to talk the stock market crash, the financial system and the state of the American Ruling Class. You can find my one day only subscription discount code link below.
www.twitch.tv/videos/24283...
www.twitch.tv/videos/24283...
🚨PANICANS RISE UP🚨 TRUMP PUTS 90D TARIFF PAUSE?🚨US CHINA TARIFF WARS RISE🚨 - hasanabi on Twitch
hasanabi went live on Twitch. Catch up on their Just Chatting VOD now.
www.twitch.tv
April 10, 2025 at 2:53 PM
Great conversation.
I would add only that “they” have decided that their two fears — falling birth rates and AI — cannot be addressed within existing democratic structures and institutions, the administrative state, laws, and norms.
And can only be addressed with an imperial unitary executive.
I would add only that “they” have decided that their two fears — falling birth rates and AI — cannot be addressed within existing democratic structures and institutions, the administrative state, laws, and norms.
And can only be addressed with an imperial unitary executive.
Reposted by Bill Goggin
“We are at a moment right now where people are asking themselves why can’t the Democratic Party defend this assault on democracy . . . and I would submit to you that if you can’t draw the line at genocide, you probably can’t draw the line at democracy.” — Ta-Nehisi Coates
"When mass protests broke out against his policy, Biden repeatedly condemned the activists as violent and antisemitic, responding to outlier actions that didn’t represent the movement. Biden’s slander helped splinter the Democratic coalition, giving Trump a potent wedge issue." shorturl.at/K4cPI
The New McCarthyism Was Started by Liberals
As with earlier Red Scares, Democrats laid the groundwork for the current crackdown on dissent.
www.thenation.com
April 10, 2025 at 1:03 PM
“We are at a moment right now where people are asking themselves why can’t the Democratic Party defend this assault on democracy . . . and I would submit to you that if you can’t draw the line at genocide, you probably can’t draw the line at democracy.” — Ta-Nehisi Coates
“Why would Trump want to cut off the rest of the world until they end their trade deficits with the United States, as well as cut off foreign aid, but be okay with Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve lending trillions of dollars to foreign central banks?”
It's up, its out. I covered a hell of a lot. There are a few things I didn't end up having the space or the brain functioning left to cover. But I'm gonna crash now. See y'all in 6 hours. Promote the piece in my absence.
www.crisesnotes.com/our2025lehma...
www.crisesnotes.com/our2025lehma...
104% China Tariffs Came into Effect at Midnight. We Instantly Entered this Crisis’s “Lehman Brothers” Moment
READERS NOTE: I'm not going to cover this piece asking for Subscriptions. If you get the importance of this moment, you'll get the importance of what I've done this week, and the past two months or so...
www.crisesnotes.com
April 9, 2025 at 12:46 PM
“Why would Trump want to cut off the rest of the world until they end their trade deficits with the United States, as well as cut off foreign aid, but be okay with Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve lending trillions of dollars to foreign central banks?”
Reposted by Bill Goggin
Pretty funny to see a Republican president boasting about imposing the largest tax increase on American workers ever www.nytimes.com/2025/04/08/u... They've come a long way from "read my lips, no new taxes."
Trump Maintains 104% China Tariffs as U.S. Officials Signal Openness to Talks
President Trump’s next round of tariffs on major trading partners goes into effect just after midnight, bringing levies on China to at least 104 percent.
www.nytimes.com
April 9, 2025 at 3:48 AM
Pretty funny to see a Republican president boasting about imposing the largest tax increase on American workers ever www.nytimes.com/2025/04/08/u... They've come a long way from "read my lips, no new taxes."
As it’s been from the beginning.
This is a great point and one that I'd been meaning to post.
Once it becomes clear that appeasement won't work, and I think that's a given, the entire "logic" of the tariffs unravels, or rather is revealed as a demand for tribute.
Once it becomes clear that appeasement won't work, and I think that's a given, the entire "logic" of the tariffs unravels, or rather is revealed as a demand for tribute.
Yes, I think that is largely correct. But neither China nor the EU will accept that. We should also note that countries like Vietnam and Israel is trying appeasement, but so far with no success. If this remains the case, it may deter others from doing the same.
April 8, 2025 at 12:32 PM
As it’s been from the beginning.
Imperial Unitary Executive
“I don’t care what any of you think, I can shut it all down, here and everywhere, and I will for any reason, and there’s nothing you can do about it.
“Displease at your peril.”
Make no mistake: That’s where we’re rapidly headed folks.
“I don’t care what any of you think, I can shut it all down, here and everywhere, and I will for any reason, and there’s nothing you can do about it.
“Displease at your peril.”
Make no mistake: That’s where we’re rapidly headed folks.
April 8, 2025 at 11:29 AM
Imperial Unitary Executive
“I don’t care what any of you think, I can shut it all down, here and everywhere, and I will for any reason, and there’s nothing you can do about it.
“Displease at your peril.”
Make no mistake: That’s where we’re rapidly headed folks.
“I don’t care what any of you think, I can shut it all down, here and everywhere, and I will for any reason, and there’s nothing you can do about it.
“Displease at your peril.”
Make no mistake: That’s where we’re rapidly headed folks.
“I still think, as insane and dangerous as these tariffs are, that the tariff story is still less important and less dangerous than what is happening on the payment system side of the Trump administration’s chaos.”
NEW PIECE: I'm finally back & just in time to provide the big picture analysis of the Trump Tariff stock market crash. I'll have a follow up piece about the stock market tomorrow & at least one payments system piece later this week.
www.crisesnotes.com/trumps-liber...
www.crisesnotes.com/trumps-liber...
Trump’s “Liberation Day” and the Ongoing Stock Market Crash: The Key Lessons to Take into the Second Week of the Market Bloodbath.
Hello readers, apologies for my extended absence. It has been a little more than three weeks since my last piece, simultaneously published by Notes On The Crises and Rolling Stone, assessing the extre...
www.crisesnotes.com
April 7, 2025 at 12:29 PM
“I still think, as insane and dangerous as these tariffs are, that the tariff story is still less important and less dangerous than what is happening on the payment system side of the Trump administration’s chaos.”
“Well-positioned” = “Trapped”
This is the key line from Powell
*POWELL: FED WELL-POSITIONED TO WAIT TO CONSIDER ADJUSTMENTS
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
*POWELL: FED WELL-POSITIONED TO WAIT TO CONSIDER ADJUSTMENTS
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
Speech by Chair Powell on the economic outlook
Thank you for having me here today. Monetary policy is more effective when the public understands what we are doing and why. Through your work, journalists lik
www.federalreserve.gov
April 4, 2025 at 3:30 PM
“Well-positioned” = “Trapped”
Reposted by Bill Goggin
If the U.S. had an opposition party that opposition party would have a bill rolling back these tariffs and radically reducing executive discretion over tariffs already written and would be targeting individual republican congresspeople to pressure them into voting for the bill
Reminder that Congress could, at any time, pass legislation canceling these tariffs and then vote to override a veto.
As prices rise and your 401(k) falls, don't let lawmakers get away with acting like powerless observers of the onslaught. Together they can kill it if they want.
As prices rise and your 401(k) falls, don't let lawmakers get away with acting like powerless observers of the onslaught. Together they can kill it if they want.
April 4, 2025 at 2:43 AM
If the U.S. had an opposition party that opposition party would have a bill rolling back these tariffs and radically reducing executive discretion over tariffs already written and would be targeting individual republican congresspeople to pressure them into voting for the bill
Just a Brick in the Wall
Tariffs based on lies, inviting a trade war and recession, are a *key* step in tearing down every last vestige of a liberal, diverse, egalitarian,
knowledge society.
Foaming the runway toward fascism.
Ignore their ultimate purpose at the nation’s peril.
Think it through.
Tariffs based on lies, inviting a trade war and recession, are a *key* step in tearing down every last vestige of a liberal, diverse, egalitarian,
knowledge society.
Foaming the runway toward fascism.
Ignore their ultimate purpose at the nation’s peril.
Think it through.
April 2, 2025 at 11:11 PM
Just a Brick in the Wall
Tariffs based on lies, inviting a trade war and recession, are a *key* step in tearing down every last vestige of a liberal, diverse, egalitarian,
knowledge society.
Foaming the runway toward fascism.
Ignore their ultimate purpose at the nation’s peril.
Think it through.
Tariffs based on lies, inviting a trade war and recession, are a *key* step in tearing down every last vestige of a liberal, diverse, egalitarian,
knowledge society.
Foaming the runway toward fascism.
Ignore their ultimate purpose at the nation’s peril.
Think it through.
Unfortunately, backwards.
Richard Murphy on a roll!
Growth is totally dependent upon people having enough money to spend. Without the redistribution of wealth in the UK, that is not going to happen.
youtu.be/8Xu2x3AwOKM?...
youtu.be/8Xu2x3AwOKM?...
April 1, 2025 at 12:06 PM
Unfortunately, backwards.
The worst part of the “compliance in advance” is the business community pretending that this is all an “economic” debate when, in fact, it is a purely “political” project that sacrifices domestic and international wellbeing for a racist, misogynistic, xenophobic future where *everyone* is worse off.
Among the appalling 'compliance in advance' is the business community pretending it's normal for economic policy to be a game show with sudden arbitrary twists. Will he or won't he? So exciting! Very savvy, definitely not a demented old man getting revenge on everyone by toying with livelihoods.
LOL -- White House econ adviser Kevin Hassett admits on Fox News Sunday that on tariffs "I can't give you any forward-looking guidance on what's gonna happen this week. The president has got a heck of a lot of analysis before him, and he's gonna make the right choice I'm sure."
March 30, 2025 at 2:59 PM
The worst part of the “compliance in advance” is the business community pretending that this is all an “economic” debate when, in fact, it is a purely “political” project that sacrifices domestic and international wellbeing for a racist, misogynistic, xenophobic future where *everyone* is worse off.