This probably isn't weak enough to short, or even sell, going into 2025. I'm still long, but cognizant of valuations. My ears are up for more.

These confirmation indicators lead by ~4 months:
1) Business Applications (strong)
2) Loan Standards (medium)
3) Home Sales (mediocre)
4) Financial Conditions (strong)

These data suggest real growth holds up into Q1, albeit weaker. I'm watching closely for next summer though.

This was the chart that finally got me. Explains so much about how/why people stayed too bearish over the past few years.

I like a long-term view on this whenever it turns (5 year timeframe?) so I think a trade could easily turn into an investment on this one

Coin already launched, funding secured

Despite a decent setup, valuations don't matter short-term. Need an economic shock before valuations matter. I thought the first China stimulus rhetoric could be that shock, but it wasn't. Bob doesn't seem to think this time will be any different. bsky.app/profile/bobe...

3) Extended USD

The real dollar is extended, suggesting that valuation gaps and concentration extremes are not fully justified.

2) USA equity concentration

The ratio between the S&P 500 and the MSCI Emerging Markets index is the highest it has been since the 1960s.

1) Forward P/Es

1995:
EM 25x
US 13x
US outperforms by 20% per year for 5 years

2001:
EM 10x
US 20x
EM outperforms by 20% per year for 5 years

Now
EM 12x
US 22x

The MSTR "leverage" seems a lot less productive, which was already a low bar.

Reset your easing clocks

and retaliatory tariffs stand to kill the dollar more than BRICS currencies because we would be exporting less dollars via lower net imports. Value outperforming growth since the election, seemingly confirming the above. What am I missing?