Vince Jansen
@vincejansen.bsky.social
Founder of Artificial Alpha Investments. Testing equity ideas here and on Substack: https://www.artificialalphainvestments.com/
Please read disclosure information: http://bit.ly/3VBK8na
Skol Vikes!
Please read disclosure information: http://bit.ly/3VBK8na
Skol Vikes!
Leading data need help and they've needed help since Q1. Housing data has poured cold water on the idea of easing. Seems like the Fed wants to help but can't. 2025 could be a 🥒-zone!
Only thing I'll say is that I don't think leading data are recessionary, just very low growth.
Only thing I'll say is that I don't think leading data are recessionary, just very low growth.
December 12, 2024 at 5:08 PM
Leading data need help and they've needed help since Q1. Housing data has poured cold water on the idea of easing. Seems like the Fed wants to help but can't. 2025 could be a 🥒-zone!
Only thing I'll say is that I don't think leading data are recessionary, just very low growth.
Only thing I'll say is that I don't think leading data are recessionary, just very low growth.
I saw one too many examples of bad survey data and decided to immortalize my negativity towards them.
www.artificialalphainvestments.com/p/misleading...
www.artificialalphainvestments.com/p/misleading...
Misleading Data (Surveys)
The best financial data are descriptive of a prevalent investment concept and predictive of a key performance indicator.
www.artificialalphainvestments.com
December 12, 2024 at 3:44 PM
I saw one too many examples of bad survey data and decided to immortalize my negativity towards them.
www.artificialalphainvestments.com/p/misleading...
www.artificialalphainvestments.com/p/misleading...
Buffett Indicator, Shiller ratio... They just don't work.
www.artificialalphainvestments.com/p/misleading...
www.artificialalphainvestments.com/p/misleading...
December 12, 2024 at 2:06 AM
Buffett Indicator, Shiller ratio... They just don't work.
www.artificialalphainvestments.com/p/misleading...
www.artificialalphainvestments.com/p/misleading...
The labor force data were not ideal last Friday
December 10, 2024 at 5:27 AM
The labor force data were not ideal last Friday
Back to 2021/1999 valuations
December 10, 2024 at 5:18 AM
Back to 2021/1999 valuations
Like everything else, emerging market equities are at valuation and concentration extremes. I like using valuations and concentration as evidence that investors are mispricing something going forward.
December 9, 2024 at 7:58 PM
Like everything else, emerging market equities are at valuation and concentration extremes. I like using valuations and concentration as evidence that investors are mispricing something going forward.
Reposted by Vince Jansen
Two problems with the so-called 'Buffett Indicator' 🤔 www.tker.co/p/warren-buf...
Two problems with the so-called 'Buffett Indicator' 🤔
The stock market valuation metric has some comparability issues 🤦🏻♂️
www.tker.co
December 7, 2024 at 4:09 PM
Two problems with the so-called 'Buffett Indicator' 🤔 www.tker.co/p/warren-buf...
The economy and markets seem incredibly boring to me right now, which is when short VIX and long mega-caps has done well in recent years. At some point this will stop working, but it's been the cycle lately.
December 7, 2024 at 9:07 AM
The economy and markets seem incredibly boring to me right now, which is when short VIX and long mega-caps has done well in recent years. At some point this will stop working, but it's been the cycle lately.
The Russell 2000 is a bad index and doesn't deserve consideration imo. I'd suggest comparing the S&P 400 vs. the S&P 600. Or here is the CRSP version of VO/VB.
November 28, 2024 at 3:56 AM
The Russell 2000 is a bad index and doesn't deserve consideration imo. I'd suggest comparing the S&P 400 vs. the S&P 600. Or here is the CRSP version of VO/VB.
Bitcoin is engineered as a reserve asset. Leverage is being built on top of Bitcoin, that seems obvious without knowing the magnitude. Whether or not Bitcoin acts like a reserve asset when the leverage on top of it cracks is the question. The SBF deleveraging is n = 1.
November 28, 2024 at 3:40 AM
Bitcoin is engineered as a reserve asset. Leverage is being built on top of Bitcoin, that seems obvious without knowing the magnitude. Whether or not Bitcoin acts like a reserve asset when the leverage on top of it cracks is the question. The SBF deleveraging is n = 1.
Can someone explain the stronger dollar post-election? Trump is on record advocating for a weaker dollar, his desired policies carry a higher deficit than Harris's, he's already bullied the Fed into lower rates and intends to do it again,
November 22, 2024 at 9:29 PM
Can someone explain the stronger dollar post-election? Trump is on record advocating for a weaker dollar, his desired policies carry a higher deficit than Harris's, he's already bullied the Fed into lower rates and intends to do it again,
Reposted by Vince Jansen
Free DampedSpring report dampedspring.com/wp-content/u...
dampedspring.com
November 22, 2024 at 4:26 PM
Free DampedSpring report dampedspring.com/wp-content/u...
I did some additional rotation from the S&P 500 to smid-caps yesterday in tax-advantaged accounts. Link to the Fundamental analysis below. We recently got a bottom, consolidation, breakout, pullback, and now rip in the ratio. That makes me comfortable rotating more.
November 22, 2024 at 4:08 PM
I did some additional rotation from the S&P 500 to smid-caps yesterday in tax-advantaged accounts. Link to the Fundamental analysis below. We recently got a bottom, consolidation, breakout, pullback, and now rip in the ratio. That makes me comfortable rotating more.
The Fed started cutting, I'm seeing a bottom in the leading aggregates I track, confirming data coming in hot, risk on within equities today.
I'm watching next Tuesday's housing data closely for additional signs of easing.
Year ahead macro is starting to get more constructive.
I'm watching next Tuesday's housing data closely for additional signs of easing.
Year ahead macro is starting to get more constructive.
November 22, 2024 at 4:06 PM
The Fed started cutting, I'm seeing a bottom in the leading aggregates I track, confirming data coming in hot, risk on within equities today.
I'm watching next Tuesday's housing data closely for additional signs of easing.
Year ahead macro is starting to get more constructive.
I'm watching next Tuesday's housing data closely for additional signs of easing.
Year ahead macro is starting to get more constructive.
Biases like these are incompatible with being a serious investor. ht @samro.bsky.social and UMich
Similar article from 2021: www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
Similar article from 2021: www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
November 22, 2024 at 3:22 PM
Biases like these are incompatible with being a serious investor. ht @samro.bsky.social and UMich
Similar article from 2021: www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
Similar article from 2021: www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
Reposted by Vince Jansen
The NFL's annualized price returns are incredible.
1920-1967
NFL = 27.2%
S&P 500 = 5.0%
1967-2023
NFL = 12.6%
S&P 500 = 7.1%
1920-1967
NFL = 27.2%
S&P 500 = 5.0%
1967-2023
NFL = 12.6%
S&P 500 = 7.1%
November 21, 2024 at 5:14 AM
The NFL's annualized price returns are incredible.
1920-1967
NFL = 27.2%
S&P 500 = 5.0%
1967-2023
NFL = 12.6%
S&P 500 = 7.1%
1920-1967
NFL = 27.2%
S&P 500 = 5.0%
1967-2023
NFL = 12.6%
S&P 500 = 7.1%
The NFL's annualized price returns are incredible.
1920-1967
NFL = 27.2%
S&P 500 = 5.0%
1967-2023
NFL = 12.6%
S&P 500 = 7.1%
1920-1967
NFL = 27.2%
S&P 500 = 5.0%
1967-2023
NFL = 12.6%
S&P 500 = 7.1%
November 21, 2024 at 5:14 AM
The NFL's annualized price returns are incredible.
1920-1967
NFL = 27.2%
S&P 500 = 5.0%
1967-2023
NFL = 12.6%
S&P 500 = 7.1%
1920-1967
NFL = 27.2%
S&P 500 = 5.0%
1967-2023
NFL = 12.6%
S&P 500 = 7.1%
Couple beliefs I have relevant to BTC:
1) BTC is a hedge against debasement. Short-term it is in fact inversely correlated to the dollar.
1) BTC is a hedge against debasement. Short-term it is in fact inversely correlated to the dollar.
November 19, 2024 at 11:08 PM
Couple beliefs I have relevant to BTC:
1) BTC is a hedge against debasement. Short-term it is in fact inversely correlated to the dollar.
1) BTC is a hedge against debasement. Short-term it is in fact inversely correlated to the dollar.
Big time housing data in 8 days. Has recent easing been enough for the housing industry?
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSR
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSR
Monthly Supply of New Houses in the United States
Monthly Supply of New Houses in the United States
fred.stlouisfed.org
November 18, 2024 at 7:19 PM
Big time housing data in 8 days. Has recent easing been enough for the housing industry?
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSR
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSR
Agree 100% with @downtownjoshbrown.bsky.social on this: youtu.be/dYvlNIqpZ5w?...
"Valuation matters, both only when a company f***s up"
I've written about it at the macro level (www.artificialalphainvestments.com/p/when-valua...), I agree at the individual equity level too.
"Valuation matters, both only when a company f***s up"
I've written about it at the macro level (www.artificialalphainvestments.com/p/when-valua...), I agree at the individual equity level too.
Buy the Election, Sell the Inauguration | TCAF 166
YouTube video by The Compound
youtu.be
November 18, 2024 at 7:05 PM
Agree 100% with @downtownjoshbrown.bsky.social on this: youtu.be/dYvlNIqpZ5w?...
"Valuation matters, both only when a company f***s up"
I've written about it at the macro level (www.artificialalphainvestments.com/p/when-valua...), I agree at the individual equity level too.
"Valuation matters, both only when a company f***s up"
I've written about it at the macro level (www.artificialalphainvestments.com/p/when-valua...), I agree at the individual equity level too.
One of the only forms of technical analysis I use, I always make sure to look at this screen on a day like today
November 18, 2024 at 2:16 AM
One of the only forms of technical analysis I use, I always make sure to look at this screen on a day like today
My assumptions until proven otherwise on recent stock market price action:
1) The stock market reacts to leading and coincident economic activity. It doesn't live too far in the future or the past
2) The impact of presidential decisions will not be felt for 1-5 years
1) The stock market reacts to leading and coincident economic activity. It doesn't live too far in the future or the past
2) The impact of presidential decisions will not be felt for 1-5 years
November 18, 2024 at 2:16 AM
My assumptions until proven otherwise on recent stock market price action:
1) The stock market reacts to leading and coincident economic activity. It doesn't live too far in the future or the past
2) The impact of presidential decisions will not be felt for 1-5 years
1) The stock market reacts to leading and coincident economic activity. It doesn't live too far in the future or the past
2) The impact of presidential decisions will not be felt for 1-5 years
I agree with Powell from his Dallas interview today that we have no idea what monetary policy will be needed in response to Trump's fiscal promises. Way too many variables, way too much error. Wait for them to happen and then monitor the leading indicators (cpi, housing, rates).
November 18, 2024 at 2:16 AM
I agree with Powell from his Dallas interview today that we have no idea what monetary policy will be needed in response to Trump's fiscal promises. Way too many variables, way too much error. Wait for them to happen and then monitor the leading indicators (cpi, housing, rates).